Ok guys, if this was straight forward match with all things equal I would pick No2e to win this match 9 out of 10 times on this surface. The margins are small but in tennis those margins are magnified and there is no better example than Roger-Rafa............nobody in their right mind would say Rafa is two times better than Roger, but that tiny margin that transcends beyond the physical reality of 1HBH vs CC Forehand has been enough to make Rafa the better player.
I'm taking into account first, Rafa's relative freshness (a first), level of tennis (a bit higher than 2010) and his no doubt HUNGER to win what has become the most difficult event for him. He is on a mission ladies and gentleman and we know as well as Novak that Rafa will give 100% and run like a madman.
Having said that, I realize Novak is in a zone, he is the hunter and loves this role. I feel thought that four finals and two DC matches in a span of six weeks has taken a toll mentally and physically. He had a tough match against Roge-Ferrer at Paris followed by tough matches against all players in his group; especially the Delpo match.
Rafa will push Novak to his limits and get the victory in the third set. BUT, if Novak's serve is clicking for the entire match (above 65%) and Rafa fails to get a read like in China.....then Novak will prevail in two sets.