Wimbledon Seedings

[isabelle]

Rafa looks set to overtake Roger even in the Wimbledon Race. What is even more worrying is that Fed might even slip out of top 4, if one of Raonic or Wawrinka has a good run at RG.

Stan could play great in RG but Milos ? I have my doubt about it, he's not a clay lover

 

[Busted]

Ya, it is hard to imagine big 4 not being the same as to 4 in Wimbledon, but it is getting little too close for comfort for Roger than expected.

I don't think Roger cares about the seedings now that he's back in the top 8. If he did he'd have played Rome and RG. I think his thinking is that he's going to have to beat those guys to win regardless of whether it's the 3R or the finals.

 

[Busted]

I suppose I was always a bit more sceptical on this as on other things (e.g. RG participation) than you were. It's still fairly likely that he will make the top 4 seeding - and if he doesn't, we should remember where he was seeded for AO2017 ...

Even with the formula they use - Wimbledon has been known to re-arrange seedings to their liking. I remember one year when they bumped Murray ahead of Federer and another time they bumped Feferer ahead of Wawrinka. Realistically - if Federer and Nadal are close in points - who are they going to seed higher? The guy who's been in 10 finals and reached the SF's last year on one leg? Or the guy who's won 2 titles but hasn't been past the 4th round since he lost the final 6 years ago? Seems like a no brainer to me, but I wouldn't worry about it because unless Stan makes the RG finals - r wins - his ranking is probably going to be 5 when Wimbledon rolls around. And even if he's #4 - his grass court results last year were horrible and probably won't be much better this year. Roger's grass results last year were decent considering he was playing on a bad knee and should be better this year. So he should be seeded ahead of Stan just based on grass court results.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Even with the formula they use - Wimbledon has been known to re-arrange seedings to their liking. I remember one year when they bumped Murray ahead of Federer and another time they bumped Feferer ahead of Wawrinka. Realistically - if Federer and Nadal are close in points - who are they going to seed higher? The guy who's been in 10 finals and reached the SF's last year on one leg? Or the guy who's won 2 titles but hasn't been past the 4th round since he lost the final 6 years ago? Seems like a no brainer to me, but I wouldn't worry about it because unless Stan makes the RG finals - r wins - his ranking is probably going to be 5 when Wimbledon rolls around. And even if he's #4 - his grass court results last year were horrible and probably won't be much better this year. Roger's grass results last year were decent considering he was playing on a bad knee and should be better this year. So he should be seeded ahead of Stan just based on grass court results.

Wimbledon does not seed Men's players subjectively based on their judgement. There is a well-defined grass court formula and they seed players based on that. This thread is about projecting the seeds based on that formula.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Stan could play great in RG but Milos ? I have my doubt about it, he's not a clay lover

But, only one of Stan or Milos need to overtake Roger, to deny Roger a top 4 seed in Wimbledon.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I don't think Roger cares about the seedings now that he's back in the top 8. If he did he'd have played Rome and RG. I think his thinking is that he's going to have to beat those guys to win regardless of whether it's the 3R or the finals.

I agree Roger does not care too much about the seedings. But, I do.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Stan could play great in RG but Milos ? I have my doubt about it, he's not a clay lover

You'll see that I say the same thing in my analysis.

I think, with the draw the way it is, the likelihood of a Stan v Rafa final has gone up.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Bumping this thread as everyone is curious about Wimbledon seedings. MJ update it, please.

 

[rafanoy1992]

If my calculations are correct (I included the grass points from the last 2 years) here are the Top 5 seeds for Wimbledon:

As of right now...

1. Murray
2. Nadal
3. Djokovic
4. Federer
5. Wawrinka

If Federer gains 365 points before the seeds are out AND Djokovic does not play any grass warm up tournaments...

1. Murray
2. Nadal
3. Federer
4. Djokovic
5. Wawrinka

If Federer wins BOTH Stuttgart and Halle and Nadal does not gain 275 points before the seeds are out...

1. Murray
2. Federer
3. Nadal
4. Djokovic
5. Wawrinka

So, looking at the scenarios: Murray and Wawrinka are pretty much locked in on their seeds. Djokovic will most likely be the 4th seed. Finally, it is really on Federer's racket on whether or not Nadal will get the 2 seed or the 3 seed.

 

[britbox]

Is Nadal playing Queens?

 

[rafanoy1992]

Is Nadal playing Queens?

Britbox, he is playing Queens. In order to secure the 2 seed for Wimbledon is he needs to reach the finals...assuming of course Federer wins both Stuttgart and Halle.

 

[Busted]

If my calculations are correct (I included the grass points from the last 2 years) here are the Top 5 seeds for Wimbledon:

As of right now...

1. Murray
2. Nadal
3. Djokovic
4. Federer
5. Wawrinka

If Federer gains 365 points before the seeds are out AND Djokovic does not play any grass warm up tournaments...

1. Murray
2. Nadal
3. Federer
4. Djokovic
5. Wawrinka

If Federer wins BOTH Stuttgart and Halle and Nadal does not gain 275 points before the seeds are out...

1. Murray
2. Federer
3. Nadal
4. Djokovic
5. Wawrinka

So, looking at the scenarios: Murray and Wawrinka are pretty much locked in on their seeds. Djokovic will most likely be the 4th seed. Finally, it is really on Federer's racket on whether or not Nadal will get the 2 seed or the 3 seed.

At this point I don't think it matters who's seeded 1-4. It's the guy who's seeded 5th who won't control his own destiny and, if things miraculously hold to seed, would have to beat 3 of the top 4 to win. 1 is probably going to play 3 and 2 is going to play 4 IF they make it to the semis. If I'm Murray though - I'd rather see Federer seeded 2 or 4 than 3. If not, he'll be having a 2015 "can't break Federer's serve" flashback and losing in 3 sets. Meanwhile the Wimbledon organizers are peeing their pants hoping for Fedal 4 - 9 years after their last meeting on grass...

 

[GameSetAndMath]

With Rafa withdrawing from Queens and Roger playing both Stuttgart and Halle, it appears that Roger might end up as #2 in the Wimbledon seeding and Rafa will fall to #3. Andy will be #1, Novak will be #4 and Stan #5.

 

[rafanoy1992]

With an early loss at Stuttgart, Federer HAS to win Halle in order to get the 2 seed at Wimbledon.

As of right now, here are the seedings for Wimbledon:

1. Murray
2. Nadal
3. Djokovic
4. Federer
5. Wawrinka

Here's a very interesting scenario and I just realized this: Federer can not get three seed at Wimbledon...if he wins Halle he will be the 2 seed, but if he does not win Halle, he is the 4th seed. Assuming Djokovic does not play Queens or Halle next week...

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Whatever happens, Rafa and Fed will neither be 1&2 or vice versa (this is easy to see) nor will be 3 & 4 or vice versa (as mentioned in the above post). So, it cannot be ensured that they will be in opposite sides of draw. With a 50% chance, they will be on same side of draw.
But, they cannot meet before SF as they will have their own quarters.

But, then the chances of Rafa reaching SF is so less that the meeting cannot happen.

 

[isabelle]

With an early loss at Stuttgart, Federer HAS to win Halle in order to get the 2 seed at Wimbledon.

As of right now, here are the seedings for Wimbledon:

1. Murray
2. Nadal
3. Djokovic
4. Federer
5. Wawrinka

Here's a very interesting scenario and I just realized this: Federer can not get three seed at Wimbledon...if he wins Halle he will be the 2 seed, but if he does not win Halle, he is the 4th seed. Assuming Djokovic does not play Queens or Halle next week...

Queen's reserving a WC for Nole, he should take his decision soon

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Rafanoy can you doublecheck your calculations. According to some other forum Roger and Rafa are likely to be seeded 4 and 3 respectively (in which case they can meet only in finals).

With Rafa not playing Queens, his points are fixed for determining his seed now. Also, while Novak has indicated that he wants to play warmup before Wimbledon, he has decided not to play in Queens or Halle. He will play only in the week before at Eastbourne. But, the tourneys in the week before are not counted. Hence, his points are also fixed for seeding purposes. So, it should not be hard to figure out. But, I got to go now.

 

[isabelle]

I agree Roger does not care too much about the seedings. But, I do.

maybe should he care about Haas, a possible WC....a lot of guys can make some waves in GS.....

 

[Front242]

maybe should he care about Haas, a possible WC....a lot of guys can make some waves in GS.....

Roger would only lose to Haas at Wimbledon in your dreams I'm afraid.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Whatever happens, Rafa and Fed will neither be 1&2 or vice versa (this is easy to see) nor will be 3 & 4 or vice versa (as mentioned in the above post). So, it cannot be ensured that they will be in opposite sides of draw. With a 50% chance, they will be on same side of draw.
But, they cannot meet before SF as they will have their own quarters.

But, then the chances of Rafa reaching SF is so less that the meeting cannot happen.

We know Rafa and Novak will be on the same side of the draw by some strange twist of fate..i know I have seen it happen at least 20 times it seems