Will Rafael Nadal win 10 titles at Roland Garros?

[brokenshoelace]

Not sure about Nadal not needing to move well on clay. In the first week? Maybe. I thought his movement was slightly off against Soderling and we saw what happened. Hell his movement was off against Brands and he struggled immensely. Not saying it's impossible, but movement is key for his confidence and the rest of his game.

 

[DarthFed]

Not sure about Nadal not needing to move well on clay. In the first week? Maybe. I thought his movement was slightly off against Soderling and we saw what happened. Hell his movement was off against Brands and he struggled immensely. Not saying it's impossible, but movement is key for his confidence and the rest of his game.

I was kind of vague on that statement, obviously movement has been one of the things that has made him almost impossible to beat there. But I get the sense he could struggle with movement and still be the 2nd favorite (at worst) there for the foreseeable future. Sod was swinging at the hip all match without missing, I don't think you'd see that again.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Not sure about Nadal not needing to move well on clay. In the first week? Maybe. I thought his movement was slightly off against Soderling and we saw what happened. Hell his movement was off against Brands and he struggled immensely. Not saying it's impossible, but movement is key for his confidence and the rest of his game.

I was kind of vague on that statement, obviously movement has been one of the things that has made him almost impossible to beat there. But I get the sense he could struggle with movement and still be the 2nd favorite (at worst) there for the foreseeable future. Sod was swinging at the hip all match without missing, I don't think you'd see that again.

Yeah I agree. In some match-ups, say he plays Berdych or something, it really wouldn't be an issue. He's still going to dictate a lot.

Against Djokovic, he's in trouble.

 

[Didi]

I think more than anything else, motivation is key here. He has broken all records in Paris, recently even his own ones and once you start breaking your own records easily, the one big question we all want to avoid inevitably arises in sports, even in life, just everywhere....what's next? Will he be able to maintain the same hunger, drive and desire in order to improve his own records until he gets sick of dirt? I don't think that is possible and who can blame him? He will never get tired of winning in the Stade Roland Garros, but at some point you just lose that driving force inside you. It's just human and it would be naive to deny that. These are not mindless machines who can go all the way back to the drawing board a billion times.

The next time he plays Djokovic in Paris the outcome will likely be decided by who wants it more. As banal as that might sound. Djokovic badly wants that trophy and he will want it more than Nadal in the future, of that I am sure. As for how many titles rafa will win there, well i think it depends on his grand slam count. If he wins another 2-3 outside of Paris and gets close to Roger's record, Paris will start to be interesting again for him. Gun to my head? 9. I think Djokovic takes Paris in 2014 and Nadal wins his final slam in Paris in 2015 exactly 10 years after his first major there. But really, it's just a wild guess.

 

[Kieran]

Great post, Didi. I often wonder how Rafa digs up the same intensity every season on clay. He's bound to lose his edge there sometime, but I think both him and Nole drive each other on, even in clay - or maybe especially there...

 

[herios]

Dimitrova is an overrated mug. He'll never win anything ... His biggest achievement is banging Sharapova. He's trying to copy Lord Federer but he is clueless ... blah

I almost choke on my pastry I was munching on when I read this:laydownlaughing:clap

 

[brokenshoelace]

I think more than anything else, motivation is key here. He has broken all records in Paris, recently even his own ones and once you start breaking your own records easily, the one big question we all want to avoid inevitably arises in sports, even in life, just everywhere....what's next? Will he be able to maintain the same hunger, drive and desire in order to improve his own records until he gets sick of dirt? I don't think that is possible and who can blame him? He will never get tired of winning in the Stade Roland Garros, but at some point you just lose that driving force inside you. It's just human and it would be naive to deny that. These are not mindless machines who can go all the way back to the drawing board a billion times.

The next time he plays Djokovic in Paris the outcome will likely be decided by who wants it more. As banal as that might sound. Djokovic badly wants that trophy and he will want it more than Nadal in the future, of that I am sure. As for how many titles rafa will win there, well i think it depends on his grand slam count. If he wins another 2-3 outside of Paris and gets close to Roger's record, Paris will start to be interesting again for him. Gun to my head? 9. I think Djokovic takes Paris in 2014 and Nadal wins his final slam in Paris in 2015 exactly 10 years after his first major there. But really, it's just a wild guess.

I don't think motivation at RG will be an issue for this simple reason: While Nadal may not desperately want RG for the fact that he won it so much, he's still chasing Roger's record, and wants to win other majors, and recognizes how important RG is for his confidence (not to mention that it adds to his total slam tally). Winning it is huge for his season. He almost does not know what it feels like not to win it...almost.

 

[Tennis Miller]

I think more than anything else, motivation is key here. He has broken all records in Paris, recently even his own ones and once you start breaking your own records easily, the one big question we all want to avoid inevitably arises in sports, even in life, just everywhere....what's next? Will he be able to maintain the same hunger, drive and desire in order to improve his own records until he gets sick of dirt? I don't think that is possible and who can blame him? He will never get tired of winning in the Stade Roland Garros, but at some point you just lose that driving force inside you. It's just human and it would be naive to deny that. These are not mindless machines who can go all the way back to the drawing board a billion times.

The next time he plays Djokovic in Paris the outcome will likely be decided by who wants it more. As banal as that might sound. Djokovic badly wants that trophy and he will want it more than Nadal in the future, of that I am sure. As for how many titles rafa will win there, well i think it depends on his grand slam count. If he wins another 2-3 outside of Paris and gets close to Roger's record, Paris will start to be interesting again for him. Gun to my head? 9. I think Djokovic takes Paris in 2014 and Nadal wins his final slam in Paris in 2015 exactly 10 years after his first major there. But really, it's just a wild guess.

Didi --in terms of motivation, RG 2014 will either be to break Sampras 2d place record of 14 slams (if Rafa has won the 2014 AO), or at least to tie it. Either way, getting to #2 on the all-time list should provide pretty serious motivation.

Also, Nadal plays with an urgency that suggests he thinks each year could be his last -- and I'm sure Uncle Toni will have Rafa convinced that this is his last chance. So if he's healthy, I think Rafa will actually be MORE motivated than Novak (who probably feels he'll have a few more cracks at it than Rafa will, given the history of the knee issue).

Cheers

TM

 

[Moxie]

I agree with BS and TM above, Didi. We used to wonder somewhat about what kept Fed motivated when he really had won everything, bested so many records, and yet love of the game, of winning, maybe stretching his lead over Rafa in Slams kept him motivated enough to win Wimbledon and get the #1 back. Rafa also loves to win, and he loves clay to play on clay. As to RG in particular, he's got Pete's (and Roger's Slam) record(s) as motivation. Plus, he seems to relish his rivalry with Djokovic, and beating him there will always be a carrot on the stick, IMO. If he had no real rival for it, he might take his eye off the ball, a bit, though not likely enough to lose, since there would be no decent rival.

That said, I believe that, when there was no real difference between Nadal and Federer in the 08 Wimbledon in the 5th, Rafa, never having won it, and having had his heart broken the year prior, perhaps did want it that bit more that pushed him over the edge. If Novak and Rafael get to a better epic next year, or whenever, and there's not much to choose between them, it could be the desire for the goal not-attained that pushes Djokovic over the finish line. In that case, I could subscribe to your theory that hunger might trump a whiff of jade.