Will Novak pass Rafa?

[monfed]

The reason why Fed finds himself in touching distance from dull is because of his USO draught. It was his second best slam after Wimbledon if not better till 2008. You can't just go from winning 5 in a row to NOTHING at all and expect to have your slam count hold up. But ofcourse Fed is king choker so only he can screw up a perfectly baked cake.

USO 09 is the absolute pits of Fed's screwup. Nothing will ever top that for me.

 

[monfed]

I'll be utterly shocked if faker equals or passes Fed. I think if Fed somehow escapes dull's ferocious slam chase, he'll have his record safe for the next 30-40 years.

 

[DarthFed]

I couldn’t press like, but I agree the younger generation is going to be a factor at some point. I think Novak missed the GOAT train due to his shanagans the past two years, these were his years to harvest and deny fedal those slams they got.

I agree with that. Any Fedal fan that argues Nole dropping like a rock the last two years didn't help a lot is in serious denial.

 

[monfed]

Younger generation.LOL. They don't have the balls to take out either of the big three in a big BOF5 match like a QF or SF. Except Fed cause he's declined beyond hope and is a major choker.

The next two years atleast is going to belong faker and dull with Fed doing a SABR on one of the 'faster" slams like Wimby/AO , possibly USO if they speed up that garbage HC.

 

[Denis]

I think Novak might even Nadal but only if he can deny him a slam at RG. He has his work cut out for him I guess.

 

[The_Grand_Slam]

IMO he can do it only if he denies Nadal at French Open(unless someone pulls a Soderling moment again) or else Nadal has a safe slam every year even though Djokovic will be a bigger favorite at the other three.

 

[monfed]

For the younger generation to take out the big 3, the surfaces have to be massively sped up. When you reduce the margins, the stronger player's defense reduces and the younger more powerful player can take him out.

Also the younger players just aren't good enough. They don't have any real weapons. Take Zverev for example, he's overall solid but he doesn't have a money shot. Nadal has his moonball, faker has his incredible return and clutch play and crazy baseline coverage, Fed has his first strike tennis with an unreadable serve and variety(in his prime he had his FH do all the damage).

Stan took some slams from faker and dull because he had ferocious power and a GOAT 1HBH.

You gotta have a weapon. No way around that. Otherwise you keep hoping and waiting for luck.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I will bump other threads with similar titles as well. The thread titled "will Novak pass Federer" is the most hilarious one as at the time of creation of that thread, the consensus wisdom was that Novak will definitely pass Rafa and it is just a matter of time. That is why this thread was never created before. :lulz2:

 

[Moxie]

I think Novak might even Nadal but only if he can deny him a slam at RG. He has his work cut out for him I guess.

Likely true about RG. Four just to catch Nadal is already a lot, but Roger and Rafa have already been rewriting conventional wisdom on how many majors one can win on the men's side post-30. I know you wrote something about Novak missing out of two years of winning slams. This is where the damage will come to bear: in the Slams race with Fedal. I have not much to offer beyond that in the way of speculation, other than to see if they all stay healthy, and how long they stay at the top of the game. We'll just have to see. But I agree that Djokovic has his work cut out for him. And I honestly don't think he'll catch Roger, though Rafa might.

 

[rafanoy1992]

To answer the OPs question here's my answer (similar to the question: Will Nadal will catch Federer):

Unless Nadal retires at the end of 2018, then I do not see Djokovic equalling Nadal. I could see him getting within 1, 2 or 3 but not equal him. Nadal is too good not to win 1 or 2 more slams in his career AND Djokovic while he is back, I do not expect him to be the 2015-2016 Djokovic. I definitely can see him multiple slams but not to the point where he will catch Nadal or Federer.

Remember, Nadal only has to win 1 slam to make the lead "big" again. Very similar to the Federer and Nadal situation...

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Just a bump.

Factoid: If Novak wins calendar gram slam this year, he would be passing Ralph this year itself.

p.s. Not saying he would win CGS (although he will be either the favorite or co-favorite in all the remaining slams barring unforeseen circumstances such as running into another Bollywood actress), but we should realize how close he is to surpassing Ralph.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

OK. Now that the gap has widened, what do folks think about this question?

At least at the moment, Novak is a contender in all the majors (whether or not he actually wins them). The
same cannot be said of Ralph.

So, despite the gap widening I think Novak can indeed pass Ralph barring unforeseen circumstances
such as Nole running into some tootsie.

 

[Moxie]

OK. Now that the gap has widened, what do folks think about this question?

At least at the moment, Novak is a contender in all the majors (whether or not he actually wins them). The
same cannot be said of Ralph.

So, despite the gap widening I think Novak can indeed pass Ralph barring unforeseen circumstances
such as Nole running into some tootsie.

I don't see why the same can't be said of Rafa, in terms of being a contender in all majors. Rafa was SFs in W last year, (and should have won it,) he's won USO 3 times, and has contended for AO many times. So there's that.

In addition, Djokovic is running out of time, too. And the field is catching up. IMO, Nadal spreading the gap by one makes a big difference in Novak's chances. (Sorry, I suppose that's rather obvious.)

 

[rafanoy1992]

I don't see why the same can't be said of Rafa, in terms of being a contender in all majors. Rafa was SFs in W last year, (and should have won it,) he's won USO 3 times, and has contended for AO many times. So there's that.

In addition, Djokovic is running out of time, too. And the field is catching up. IMO, Nadal spreading the gap by one makes a big difference in Novak's chances. (Sorry, I suppose that's rather obvious.)

Exactly my point, Moxie!

In both races (Federer and Nadal/Nadal and Djokovic) one Slam win by the leader is CRUCIAL especially at this point of their careers. It is why in the other thread (Will Nadal pass Federer) I stated that if Federer wins 1 more Slam, then I do not see Nadal catching him at all.

It is similar in this race, even if Nadal "only" wins 2 more slams, that is an enormous gap that Djokovic has to overcome. While he is still a contender in all slams, he is 32 years old! He won't be automatic like from 2011 or 2015-2016. He will still win most matches but he will be vulnerable just like Nadal.

Now, I still he will win more majors but not enough to surpass Nadal (he might get very close though!).

Here are statistical approaches or theories:

Djokovic 4 - Nadal 0
Djokovic 5 - Nadal 1
Djokovic 6 - Nadal 2

So basically, Djokovic has to win at least 4 majors just to surpass Nadal and that's assuming Nadal does not win another slam (very unlikely). So at age 32 and beyond, Djokovic has to win 5 or more slams just to surpass Nadal...that's a very tall order even for Djokovic.

 

[Bonaca]

I agree with moxie and rafanoy, Nadal is way too good not to win at least one or two slams this or next year. He is also always one of the favourites at any slam.
The most I can expect of Novak is to tie Nadal and that means also Federer.
But its very unlikely to see him win another 3 in a row, it will become harder every time , I’m happy if he could win one more this year.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I don't see why the same can't be said of Rafa, in terms of being a contender in all majors. Rafa was SFs in W last year, (and should have won it,) he's won USO 3 times, and has contended for AO many times. So there's that.

In addition, Djokovic is running out of time, too. And the field is catching up. IMO, Nadal spreading the gap by one makes a big difference in Novak's chances. (Sorry, I suppose that's rather obvious.)

I was sloppy in expressing what I had in mind. Much to my chagrin, Ralph is indeed a contender in all slams. He won USO in 2017, he reached SF at Wimby in 2018 and he reached F@AO in 2019 (not to talk anything dirty).

Roger, Ralph and Novak, all three of them will be contenders in Wimbledon, USO and AO (for at least one more year from now and possibly for two more years).

Obviously, Ralph will be the favorite @RG. However, Novak will be the favorite in all other three GSs. That is a 1:3 ratio. So, my contention that Novak might be able to do it.

Of course all of this is based on the assumption that status quo remains. But, as we all know for sure, things change although in which manner we don't know.

Remember that not too long ago, Novak even publicly stated that surpassing Roger is certainly on his mind. o_O

 

[monfed]

faker is a better player than dull so he should pass him. It will be a travesty if Nadull, who he's owned on non-clay surfaces, has more slams than him.

 

[El Dude]

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Looks like the current growth rate is almost the same for all of them. So, the current status quo of F > N > D should continue hopefully.

 

[El Dude]

Looks like the current growth rate is almost the same for all of them. So, the current status quo of F > N > D should continue hopefully.

That 2013-16 streak for Roger really hurt. Crazy to think that in 2007 and again in 2009 he was +9 on Rafa; in 2010 he was +15 on Novak!

By Decade:
2000s - Roger 15, Rafa 6, Novak 1
2010s - Novak 14+, Rafa 12+, Roger 5+

I think the gap will continue to narrow, through, and all three will finish in the 20-22 range. I could see (and kind of like) a scenario where they all finish with the same number. 21? Of course if Fedal are both retired with 21 and Novak is stilll plugging along, he will give it his all to get to 22. But if history has any poetry to it, he won't manage and they all finish with 21. Like so....

Roger wins #21 this year or next, then has a farewell tour in 2021, retiring at Basel at the ripe old age of 40. Let's say Rafa wins two more in 2019-20, but struggles through injury in 2021 but then makes one more surge to win #21 at 2022 RG at age 36, retiring while hoisting his trophy. Meanwhile Novak is catching up, but slowly losing ground to NextGenners. He catches Fedal in 2023 with #21, and is determined to get #22 but goes Slamless in 2024 and 2025 and then calls it quits at age 38, also with 21.