Will Novak pass Federer?

[GameSetAndMath]

We have a thread titled "Will Rafa Pass Federer"? Since that question seems to be settled, the burning question now appears to be will Novak surpass Federer? Of course, before passing Federer, he must pass Rafa; but, let us not labor the obvious.

I posted my thoughts about this here . But, nehemeth pointed out that it may be a wrong thread for it. So, I created this thread. The floor is yours, ladies and gentlemen.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The basic game of Novak is baseline play. It may not be just counterpunching. It may be aggressive baseline play. He may be able to turn defense into offense. But, it surely cannot be called a fundamentally attacking style. Such a style will be taking its toll over a period. It cannot lost forever.
That is the primary logic behind my vote, not to mention the sound analysis mentioned in the OP of "Will Rafa pass Fed?" thread.

Novak needs 5 sets to put Simon to bed, He needs 36 shots to win a point against Andy. This kind of stuff will not be sustainable in the long run.

 

[nehmeth]

Thank you GSM. Now you can tell us fans to chill out directly without dredging up poor Rafa's thread.
Will Novak catch Federer might have been the better title, but oh well. He has to win seven between now an whenever he finishes up his career.

If Novak wins the Grand Slam this year and three next year, he can tie Fed, at which point he won't need to pass him.

I think he can tie Fed.

 

[nehmeth]

Novak needs 5 sets to put Simon to bed, He needs 36 shots to win a point against Andy. This kind of stuff will not be sustainable in the long run.

And you picked Fed to win their semi, because you felt it in your gut. No one made fun of you after your boy got creamed 1 and 2 in the first two sets. People were gracious enough to allow you to give all your reasons why you had that feeling he would win.

Your wishful speculation that Novak won't catch Fed is just that, based on your reasoning and hope. Now, I will give you better odds on being correct with this one than on Fed winning the other day. :snicker

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Hey, you misunderstood me. This is not meant to dampen the spirits of Novak's fans. This is to indulge in speculation both for and against the possibility by interested posters.

As you rightly pointed out, we don't want this important discussion to be drowned under a thread with inappropriate title. Hence, the new thread. Don't take everything negatively lease:

 

[nehmeth]

Lot of people are going overboard with current success of Novak and some are even projecting him to...
So, the sound analysis tells us that the chances of Novak surpassing Fed will be considerably smaller. :devil

The ability of human beings to predict future, especially the cumulative results of next few years, is terrible. Quite often, buoyed by euphorism, people think the status quo will continue (especially when the potential challengers are not obvious, as is the case now). Novak will meet his Kryptonite(s) soon. That is the world order. :chillout:

So calling us overboard, putting a devil face after stating Novak's chances of passing Fed are smaller than Nadal, saying we got carried away with euphoria, and posting the chill out emoticon is in no way taking a shot at his fans. Right.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

And you picked Fed to win their semi, because you felt it in your gut. No one made fun of you after your boy got creamed 1 and 2 in the first two sets. People were gracious enough to allow you to give all your reasons why you had that feeling he would win.

In my defense, I unequivocally said at the end of my post that Novak is the favorite.
So, it should be clear to everybody that I was primarily looking for some reasons to justify my gut feeling. If you make fun of me, I would call that it is only fair.

On the other hand, I am not exactly making fun of Novak fans by creating this thread. Many would say and are saying that it could (and some say it would eventually) happened. So, I thought it would make an interesting discussion.

 

[nehmeth]

And you picked Fed to win their semi, because you felt it in your gut. No one made fun of you after your boy got creamed 1 and 2 in the first two sets. People were gracious enough to allow you to give all your reasons why you had that feeling he would win.

In my defense, I unequivocally said at the end of my post that Novak is the favorite.
So, it should be clear to everybody that I was primarily looking for some reasons to justify my gut feeling. If you make fun of me, I would call that it is only fair.

On the other hand, I am not exactly making fun of Novak fans by creating this thread. Many would say and are saying that it could (and some say it would eventually) happened. So, I thought it would make an interesting discussion.

No at the end of your post you said, " But, my gut feeling says Roger takes it this time."

And yes there are some serious athletes and writers who believe Novak has a real chance to catch Fed, which I think could be a good discussion.

But that doesn't mean you weren't taking a shot at folks to make yourself feel better.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

While you may or may not agree with my views on the subject, this thread is a serious thread where I expect different posters to look at the issue from different angles and dissect it. Get over it.

 

[nehmeth]

While you may or may not agree with my views on the subject, this thread is a serious thread where I expect different posters to look at the issue from different angles and dissect it. Get over it.

Nothing to get over on my part GSM. I agree that it can be a good discussion, but you can't be honest and admit you were taking shots. That's fine.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

While you may or may not agree with my views on the subject, this thread is a serious thread where I expect different posters to look at the issue from different angles and dissect it. Get over it.

Nothing to get over on my part GSM. I agree that it can be a good discussion, but you can't be honest and admit you were taking shots. That's fine.

Look, as far as I know, nobody in this forum even predicted that Novak will surpass Federer (unlike me shamelessly predicting Fed will win SF at AO based on "gut feeling"). So, my arguments on the topic of this thread cannot possibly be taken as being aimed at you or some other individuals.

Now, you may say it is taking a shot at the community of Novak fans. But, that is not a monolithic entity. I am sure even among Novak fans, different people have different feelings on the matter. Recall that Darthfed, despite being a Fed fan, saying there is no good reason why Fed will win against Novak at AO, especially considering he did not win against him at W or USO.

 

[nehmeth]

I'm not offended GSM, and you're welcome to post comments like you did here . If you sincerely believe you weren't taking a swipe at anyone, I'm happy with that.

 

[isabelle]

Yes the great Serbinator'll pass Mr Vavrinec but he won't bang his gf !!

 

[Riotbeard]

I'm not offended GSM, and you're welcome to post comments like you did here . If you sincerely believe you weren't taking a swipe at anyone, I'm happy with that.

Is this one of those moments where I have to hold back another member of the gang I am in, haha!

I don't think Novak will do it (although I hope he does). I think Novak will have to end 2017 with 16 to have a shot at it, so he will really have to make hay while the sun shines, because things to have to eventually change. I also am superstitious and don't like to jinx people, so maybe this is my tactic to get it done!

 

[Kieran]

This is a reply to Darth's post in this thread instead, for the sake of keeping the conversation in one place.

This would be a good time for poor old Wafa to still be good because he'd be making every slam final just like Novak. The problem is poor old Wafa seems to be washed up because he is no longer "faster, stronger, longer" than everyone else. And this by the age of 28 (he turned 28 just before winning RG 2014).

28 is old in tennis terms, brother. Sampras was similarly feeling the strain, and Borg was long passed into legend. We must take time out again to commend Mr Federer for his unusual longevity, and pray that it lasts.

And if we are dissing Roger's early competition we can't ignore how weak the game is after Nole now. A washed up 34 year old is providing the top player his most competition.

This is true, but as I said above, Novak will be 29 at the start of the next major. We need one of the statistical experts here now to tell us, but how many slams have been won in the open era by players older than 29? I know Connors won 3, I think Roger has one, Agassi has 3 or 4. There might be others. Even given the poor level of competition currently, is it asking too much for Nole to win six more? I think so...

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I'm not offended GSM, and you're welcome to post comments like you did here . If you sincerely believe you weren't taking a swipe at anyone, I'm happy with that.

I am not going to defend myself any further after this post. As further proof that my intention is not about taking swipes, I would like to point out that, I also dredged up the thread titled "Another look at MDP (Most Dominant Player) and posted this message . Even though Novak was eclipsing Fed's record of dominant streak length, I bothered to dig it up and acknowledge and congratulate Novak. I could have easily not done so.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Getting back to the topic of this thread, one of the reasons why people are blindsided is that most people are searching for who will be the next player with multi slam winning potential. It is difficult to think of anyone currently in the circuit fitting that bill. Also, it is to be acknowledged that in modern tennis it is difficult for younger players or teenagers to breakthrough and win a GS.

But, we don't need a multi-slam winning great player to stop Novak. All we need is the ATP analog of a Vinci, Kerber, Cornet etc performing the task of stopping Novak. That could conceivably start happening pretty soon down the road.

 

[Great Hands]

Federer is 35 this year and could have quite likely won all the last 3 majors were it not for Novak. and there is no 'Novak' coming up behind Novak, who

 

[El Dude]

This is true, but as I said above, Novak will be 29 at the start of the next major. We need one of the statistical experts here now to tell us, but how many slams have been won in the open era by players older than 29? I know Connors won 3, I think Roger has one, Agassi has 3 or 4. There might be others. Even given the poor level of competition currently, is it asking too much for Nole to win six more? I think so...

Your wish is my command. Here are all the Slams won by players age 29 and older. Quite a few, as it turns out, but most in the 70s.

1968 Ken Rosewall (33, FO), Rod Laver (29, Wim)
1969 Rod Laver x 4 (30, 30, 30, 31)
1970 Ken Rosewall (35, USO)
1971 Ken Rosewall (36, AO)
1972 Ken Rosewall (37, AO), Andres Gimeno (34, FO)
1973 John Newcombe (29, USO)
1975 John Newcombe (31, AO), Arthur Ashe (32, WIM)
1982 Jimmy Connors (29, Wim; 30, USO)
1983 Jimmy Connors (31, USO)
1990 Ivan Lendl (29, AO), Andres Gomez (30, FO)
1998 Petr Korda (30, AO)
1999 Andre Agassi (29, FO, USO)
2000 Andre Agassi (29, AO)
2001 Andre Agassi (30, AO), Goran Ivanisevic (30, WIM)
2002 Pete Sampras (31, USO)
2003 Andre Agassi (32, AO)
2012 Roger Federer (30, WIM)
2015 Stan Wawrinka (30, FO)

5 Rod Laver, Andre Agassi
4 Ken Rosewall
3 Jimmy Connors
2 John Newcombe
1 Lots

 

[shawnbm]

I voted NO, and I still think the odds are against Novak even tying Federer. He needs 6 majors more to tie--that is a little over half he has won in his entire career, with the last 6 coming since the AO in 2013. Look back at 2013-2016' AO. He won 1 major in 2013 and 2014 each, then 3 in 2015 and 1 dominating major this year. I think most would say that is an incredible three and some odd year streak--a time in which he was the number one ranked player every year save 2013 at the end (Rafa had a tremendous year). Now, he has to do something on that order from here on out just to tie Federer. I think that is a lot to ask, and I firmly believe he wins another major this year and closes out the year with 12. I still think 14-15 is what we are looking at. I can't imagine he can have another three years like the last three when he will be 31 or 32 years old, likely with more of a family. Life gets in the way for many players--many of them.