Will Nadal pass Federer?

[GameSetAndMath]

Roger's lack of longevity is the problem. He was a late bloomer winning his first slam just before age 22 and then by age 28 he was a complete shell of himself and has only won 2 slams since. Nadal won his first slam at age 19 and has just won one at age 28.

This is a bit hyperbolic, Darth. He wasn't a "complete shell of himself" at age 28, he simply was no longer in his absolute peak - like most players aren't at that age. Roger's age-related decline doesn't point to a problem of longevity; if anything, he's been able to maintain a strong plateau longer than most players.

I created the table in the earlier post to show that this not a hyperbole. Roger's bell
curve tapers off fast at either end where as Rafa's bell curve tapers much less drastically
in the front end (and will do so probably at back end as well). But, the peak of Roger's
Bell curve is considerably higher than the peak of Rafa's Bell curve (and lasted longer
as well).

Approximately speaking, Fed has so far played 60 slams and won 17. His distribution is
as follows:

First 20 ----------------- 2
Second 20 ------------ 13
Next 20 ---------------- 2

Continuing along this line of thinking, Rafa has so far played approximately 40 slams
and won 14 of them. His distribution is as follows

First 20 ----------------- 6
Second 20 -------------- 8
Next 20 ----------------- ?

I guess it is reasonable to assume that he will be able to participate in
20 more slams. If his back end is going to be as good as his front end, one
could project 6 more slams for him, making his total to be 20. What a
scary thought?

On the other hand, if he deteriorates as fast as Fed (and more in line
with the rest of the GS champions) then he would win just a couple in the
next 20, making his total to be 16.

So, there is something for everybody. That is the beauty of statistics.
You can come up with seemingly good argument to support any conclusion.
Actually, there is an annual award in statistics for not abusing data. I will let
you all figure out which argument is spurious.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

If he does, it will still mean different things to different people.

Myself , for example...I don't think Roger is the best ever because of slam counts, wtf's , weeks at number one...I think of him as the best for me because of the style, the magic produced on court, the impossible shots he pulls of that other players would not even think about attempting, the amazing creativity and improvisation...

Others might feel the same for Rafa NOW, even without passing Roger's slam count or coming close to his weeks at number one.

All personal.

And yes, I think Nadal can make it to 18 and pass Roger.

Rafael has to pass him. Every year , I meet a new player on the tennis courts , they are always nice and interesting folks until we began a discussion about the current ATP tour and discover they are one of Them, a Fed Fan . The conversation stops because I know the dislike of Rafael is coming. It just the way it Is.

These "nice and interesting" folks might be on to something maybe AP, eh?

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

If he does, it will still mean different things to different people.

Myself , for example...I don't think Roger is the best ever because of slam counts, wtf's , weeks at number one...I think of him as the best for me because of the style, the magic produced on court, the impossible shots he pulls of that other players would not even think about attempting, the amazing creativity and improvisation...

Others might feel the same for Rafa NOW, even without passing Roger's slam count or coming close to his weeks at number one.

All personal.

And yes, I think Nadal can make it to 18 and pass Roger.

Greatness is all about achievement. Slams aren't everything but they are the biggest thing. Roger still has a lot of work to do to secure his career. His career is amazing now, but it could be a different story in a few years if he doesn't man up and start playing well.

Darth, I am not talking about Cali's love for Nalby here. Roger has achieved things in tennis other players can only dream of. I am just saying for me, personally, his greatness is beyond numbers. In addition to his personal achievements, he set the bar for all the top guys today. Uncle Toni spent countless hours to shape Rafa's game to beat Roger. The dedication to fitness and the game itself by guys like Nole and Murray and countless others are in large part due to Roger and I have heard them say as much.

Numbers work up to a point, after that , other things take over. To me Roger is like Michael Jordan. He transcends the game...he sets the bar for others. You look at a guy like Kobe, you see Jordan's fingerprints in everything he does, and Kobe is a great player.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Time to bump this thread up as well.

If you have not seen this thread before, please first read this interesting analysis which was published exactly one year ago, on Rafa's birthday last year. So, it will count one less slam for Rafa and it is not a mistake. But, the article is still relevant though. The basic methodology uses the distribution of ages of slam winners (Dudesque) while taking into account that Roger and Rafa are not ordinary players (uses a multiplying factor for their greatness).

I think Roger will probably never win AO or RG again. But, he still has good chances at Wimbleon and some chances at USO. After all, he is still the #2 player and he likes fast courts.

I am not writing off Rafa. I strongly believe that he will win at least one more slam (if not more) before retiring. However, I don't see much chances of Rafa winning Wimbledon or USO from now on. His chances are good primarily at RG and secondarily at AO, it being a slow hard court. But, in both of those he may need to solve the Novak problem, assuming Novak remains in good form for say two more years, which is reasonable to make. After two more years, Rafa will be 31 and difficult to see him even in contention for the title at majors. My guess is Rafa has one more RG in him definitely and probably nothing more than that (except for perhaps some finals at RG and AO). Even though AO surface is slow, for some reason or other, it has been an unlucky Slam for him over the years and I don't expect him to win there either.

So, what you think of the question in the title of the thread, in view of the analysis based on the article linked and as one year has elapsed since that article was published.

 

[Kieran]

This is the second GS in a row where no member of Fedal has reached the semis. The third in a row where neither has reached the final. The fourth in a row which neither of them has won. There's a pattern developing here.

As Rafa stands now, he's not winning any more majors. He's about a billion miles off the pace needed. He's physically looking old, his movement is patchy, his forehand is gone AWOL when he needs it, he's serving like a stately old dame. He's just showing the usual signs of wear and tear for a high-achieving player of his age, and even more so for a guy who's had to skip huge swathes of the tour the last six years through injury.

It's taken its toll. This is an inescapable observation. He hasn't come back this time anywhere near his best, and he's lost more matches on clay this season than he did between 2006-2010. He's not Rafa.

Not yet.

He still has time and space to improve, but he's slid into the dank bowels of the rankings where he could face too many top players in succession to reach finals, let alone win them. Unless he rediscovers his 2013 levels of imperious greatness on hards. So Rafa is obviously in a pucker. I expect him to gain enough points to place himself back in the top 4 by the seasons end, but next year he's 30. Can he expect to be the same player he was at 27, let alone 22? It's ridiculous to think he can be.

If he can manage to rediscover his greatest form for another couple of slams, then he could win them, doesn't matter where. The US Open has been a happy hunting ground for him - the years he hasn't been plagued by injury and missed it. I wouldn't write him off yet, and I think if you put a gun to my head, and threatened to pull the trigger, I'd say he wins at least one, maybe two more majors, but I don't see where he's going to get three from. He's more likely to get injured again, given the way he's been breaking down.

I don't see Federer winning any more majors. He had a great chance last year at Wimbledon, even in his dotage, to win. He's long held back the years. Sampras had taken the ship to the Grey Havens at a much younger age, and Pete had been slowing and skipping slams to preserve himself long before he actually retired. I think the final tally for these two greats will be 17 for Roger, and 15 or 16 for Rafa, which is incredible, really...

 

[Moxie]

I think Rafa has a resurgence to form in him, as Roger did after his dreary 2013. He just couldn't catch up to it for this RG. He's 29 (today) with a lot of miles on him, but it's just 3 in the rest of his career to catch Roger, which is still possible. I agree with Kieran that Roger isn't winning any more. He ticked all the boxes that even his fans laid out for Wimbledon and the USO last year, (good draw, 2 of 3 of the Big 4 out/absent) and at one of those 2 events. And it didn't happen. Here he got a great draw again, and he's out in the QFs. Roger is a great opportunist, and he's been missing his opportunities. I don't think they'll keep being handed to him. And Rafa has a few more years to add on 3-4, which shouldn't be impossible, if he returns to reasonable form. Of course, Djokovic looks like a Juggernaut, at the moment, but he does, sometimes, and then doesn't, at just the right moments.

 

[Front242]

Really though all it would take is a bit of work on his ROS. Some matches this year his ROS was actually good but others it was awful. That's what cost him in most of his big losses and he acknowledged it but hasn't been working hard enough for it to be consistently improved.

 

[Moxie]

Really though all it would take is a bit of work on his ROS. Some matches this year his ROS was actually good but others it was awful. That's what cost him in most of his big losses and he acknowledged it but hasn't been working hard enough for it to be consistently improved.

He's the hardest worker in show biz, which Roger is not, and it worked for him.

 

[Front242]

Well we don't have to wait too long for the next slam at least! Best time of the year for tennis.

 

[Moxie]

At least Rafa will be well-rested this year.

 

[nehmeth]

I think Rafa has a resurgence to form in him, as Roger did after his dreary 2013. He just couldn't catch up to it for this RG. He's 29 (today) with a lot of miles on him, but it's just 3 in the rest of his career to catch Roger, which is still possible. I agree with Kieran that Roger isn't winning any more. He ticked all the boxes that even his fans laid out for Wimbledon and the USO last year, (good draw, 2 of 3 of the Big 4 out/absent) and at one of those 2 events. And it didn't happen. Here he got a great draw again, and he's out in the QFs. Roger is a great opportunist, and he's been missing his opportunities. I don't think they'll keep being handed to him. And Rafa has a few more years to add on 3-4, which shouldn't be impossible, if he returns to reasonable form. Of course, Djokovic looks like a Juggernaut, at the moment, but he does, sometimes, and then doesn't, at just the right moments.

tennis1234 reminded me today that in 2009 when he was so forlorn about Ralf's injury - I told him not to worry, that he would be back. And he was.

I've watched Rafa all this first half of the year, and it just isn't there. His foot speed, while still excellent compared to the rest of the field, is diminished and the resulting issues - with timing, the inordinate amount of balls he's dropping way short, the fact that other players are exploiting Novak's strategy with good success... I don't see him coming back to win more slams, except maybe another French... maybe.

 

[Moxie]

I think Rafa has a resurgence to form in him, as Roger did after his dreary 2013. He just couldn't catch up to it for this RG. He's 29 (today) with a lot of miles on him, but it's just 3 in the rest of his career to catch Roger, which is still possible. I agree with Kieran that Roger isn't winning any more. He ticked all the boxes that even his fans laid out for Wimbledon and the USO last year, (good draw, 2 of 3 of the Big 4 out/absent) and at one of those 2 events. And it didn't happen. Here he got a great draw again, and he's out in the QFs. Roger is a great opportunist, and he's been missing his opportunities. I don't think they'll keep being handed to him. And Rafa has a few more years to add on 3-4, which shouldn't be impossible, if he returns to reasonable form. Of course, Djokovic looks like a Juggernaut, at the moment, but he does, sometimes, and then doesn't, at just the right moments.

tennis1234 reminded me today that in 2009 when he was so forlorn about Ralf's injury - I told him not to worry, that he would be back. And he was.

I've watched Rafa all this first half of the year, and it just isn't there. His foot speed, while still excellent compared to the rest of the field, is diminished and the resulting issues - with timing, the inordinate amount of balls he's dropping way short, the fact that other players are exploiting Novak's strategy with good success... I don't see him coming back to win more slams, except maybe another French... maybe.

Yes, but he said himself he wasn't going to come back like 2013. Some things take time, and no one works harder than Rafa on making changes. And of course it's in your interest that he not come back. He's just turned 29 today, and he's had several resurgences in him. It would be foolhardy to say that he's done, even if allowing the possibility of another RG.

 

[nehmeth]

I've watched Rafa all this first half of the year, and it just isn't there. His foot speed, while still excellent compared to the rest of the field, is diminished and the resulting issues - with timing, the inordinate amount of balls he's dropping way short, the fact that other players are exploiting Novak's strategy with good success... I don't see him coming back to win more slams, except maybe another French... maybe.

Yes, but he said himself he wasn't going to come back like 2013. Some things take time, and no one works harder than Rafa on making changes. And of course it's in your interest that he not come back. He's just turned 29 today, and he's had several resurgences in him. It would be foolhardy to say that he's done, even if allowing the possibility of another RG.

Say what you will moxie... it isn't a matter of more hard work if the legs aren't there anymore. And I was pretty positive about his comebacks when it least served "my interests" as in 2013.

 

[Riotbeard]

I've watched Rafa all this first half of the year, and it just isn't there. His foot speed, while still excellent compared to the rest of the field, is diminished and the resulting issues - with timing, the inordinate amount of balls he's dropping way short, the fact that other players are exploiting Novak's strategy with good success... I don't see him coming back to win more slams, except maybe another French... maybe.

Yes, but he said himself he wasn't going to come back like 2013. Some things take time, and no one works harder than Rafa on making changes. And of course it's in your interest that he not come back. He's just turned 29 today, and he's had several resurgences in him. It would be foolhardy to say that he's done, even if allowing the possibility of another RG.

Say what you will moxie... it isn't a matter of more hard work if the legs aren't there anymore. And I was pretty positive about his comebacks when it least served "my interests" as in 2013.

Yeah I think Rafa will be lucky to get sixteen more likely 14 or 15. Even if Rafa returned to 2013 (which won't happen), he is facing a very good novak and andy. In order to pass fed, he would have to have at least 1 dominant year, and I just can't see it (don't want to either). He has produced 2 weeks of gs level tennis in the last 2 seasons. Hasn't produced any of it now for officially about 12 months. He will be lucky to get one more IMO. He is a fighter, so I will never write him off, but... You don't lose like this than come back. So far this season, is like Fed 2013, and Fed is better but still isn't that strong a bet to win a slam.

 

[Moxie]

I've watched Rafa all this first half of the year, and it just isn't there. His foot speed, while still excellent compared to the rest of the field, is diminished and the resulting issues - with timing, the inordinate amount of balls he's dropping way short, the fact that other players are exploiting Novak's strategy with good success... I don't see him coming back to win more slams, except maybe another French... maybe.

Yes, but he said himself he wasn't going to come back like 2013. Some things take time, and no one works harder than Rafa on making changes. And of course it's in your interest that he not come back. He's just turned 29 today, and he's had several resurgences in him. It would be foolhardy to say that he's done, even if allowing the possibility of another RG.

Say what you will moxie... it isn't a matter of more hard work if the legs aren't there anymore. And I was pretty positive about his comebacks when it least served "my interests" as in 2013.

It's a matter of adjustment if the movement isn't the same, so we shall see.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

we have now had a full year of non-vamos tennis,

since he won the 2014 French open his record is 36-15. (7-5 lastyear, 29-10 thisyear).

 

[El Dude]

I think Kieran said it really well above. I'll just add a few flavorings to the mix.

One thing to remember about Rafa, which I find quite striking, is that over the last five years, 2011-15, he's only won a single Slam off clay. There are just too many players that could take him out now off clay, and with Novak's win today it is hard to imagine that he'll win the 2-3 more French Opens and/or the 1+ non-clay Slams to catch and/or surpass Roger. The likely range seems to be 0-2, not 3-4.

That said, I think the comparison to Roger's 2013 is somewhat apt and I could see a resurgence next year, if more subdued than 2013's rise to the top was. I love the narrative that Rafa fights back and wins one more French Open to make it an even 10/15, and then promptly retires while accepting his trophy.

As for Roger, with Andy playing pretty well, he's probably the third favorite at Wimbledon. At the US Open he's in the pack with the second tier players. The chances of him winning another Slam are small, but possible.

 

[Moxie]

One thing to remember about Rafa, which I find quite striking, is that over the last five years, 2011-15, he's only won a single Slam off clay. There are just too many players that could take him out now off clay, and with Novak's win today it is hard to imagine that he'll win the 2-3 more French Opens and/or the 1+ non-clay Slams to catch and/or surpass Roger. The likely range seems to be 0-2, not 3-4.

That said, I think the comparison to Roger's 2013 is somewhat apt and I could see a resurgence next year, if more subdued than 2013's rise to the top was. I love the narrative that Rafa fights back and wins one more French Open to make it an even 10/15, and then promptly retires while accepting his trophy.

As for Roger, with Andy playing pretty well, he's probably the third favorite at Wimbledon. At the US Open he's in the pack with the second tier players. The chances of him winning another Slam are small, but possible.

I don't know why you find it so "striking" that Nadal has only won one slam off clay from 2011-15. As we know, he did win a Slam a year in every year from 05, (this one remains to be seen.) But why should him not winning one off clay in the last year and a half be that bad? (I know you said only one in the last 6 years off-clay, but context is everything.) I agree that the competition gets tougher, esp. on the HCs, and as youngsters find their range. If you think Roger still has a chance, even slim, you really have to think that Rafa has a chance, given past history. I don't believe he's done.

And I don't like your idea that he wins one more French and retires. At least until he's gotten to 17-18 Major wins.

 

[Front242]

Nadal should consider first strike tennis more as he ages as trying to win by way of fitness is no longer working for Ferrer either. And no I'm not talking cali type stuff here about Nadal winning by way of stamina but rather that simply grinding out wins is not the way at 29 imo.

 

[nehmeth]

Wednesday, June 3, 2015
He said what? Rafael Nadal doesn't see decline
By Peter Bodo
ESPN.com

"I was doubtful about myself the 11 years that I have been playing here. I won nine and I lost twice. Doubts are good in life."

-- Rafael Nadal, defending champion, No. 6 seed and Roland Garros icon after he was beaten in a quarterfinal on Wednesday by top-seeded Novak Djokovic.

Rafael Nadal, French Open, Roland Garros
Most observers think Rafael Nadal has been a shadow of his former self recently. Whether Nadal recognizes his own decline is a different matter.

Add those words to all the other puzzling, often unconvincing ones that this towering but clearly troubled champion has uttered over the course of the past six months. It might seem unkind to pile on at a time when this latest wound is still so fresh, but this is an unusual moment, for Nadal appears to be in a downward spiral, the nature of which he doesn't recognize.

Even the man who beat him seems to be clued in to this. Djokovic was 0-6 in French Open meetings with Nadal before Wednesday's match; Nadal had broken his serve, along with his big Serbian heart, in two finals. And it isn't as if Djokovic had been outclassed in those matches, like all those other palookas. He had come agonizingly close.

Yet when Djokovic finally defeated Nadal and moved one step closer to fulfilling his French Open dream thanks to -- how appropriate -- a Nadal double fault, he didn't unleash that trademark bellow, tear at his shirt or pound his chest. He advanced to the net and very briefly knit his shoulders in the hint of a shrug.


Call it sympathy. Djokovic probably felt what many people wondered: Is this the end of Rafael Nadal as we know him?

The question may be premature -- it must seem so to Nadal, at least. But then, guys like him, the champions, they're always the last to know. But the question has to be asked for a couple of reasons. For one thing, Nadal turned 29 today, and in tennis, that has been the year of (almost) no return. Pete Sampras and Roger Federer, the two most towering figures of the past two decades in tennis, each won exactly one major apiece after celebrating that birthday (though Federer could still have more opportunities).

Then there's this: When Nadal struggled early in the year, he attributed it to needing to regain his form after missing almost all of the second half of 2014 with injury. He made the quarterfinals of the Australian Open, the semis in Rio, and he won Buenos Aires on clay. At that point, he had to be considered back. But from that point on, he's been spinning his wheels for mysterious reasons he's put down to "confidence." But it's still hard to call this a slump, even a mental one. Nadal has won a tournament and been competitive at the highest Masters 1000 level.

What Nadal has been is -- a darned good, normal tennis player.

After his loss, Nadal told reporters, "I am happy the way that I recovered my level the last month but probably not enough yet to play against and to win against Novak. To play, yes. I competed, but not to win."

The promise rings slightly hollow if you saw how confidently Djokovic commanded from the backcourt. A spell lasting for a decade has been broken. Those big points that Nadal once played with such focus and panache have become adventures with uncertain outcomes.

"When we reached 6-5, 30-15 (in the first set), I missed a smash. It was an important moment," Nadal said. "These types of details were very important. Against Djokovic, you can't do these types of mistakes."

All true. All relevant. All inevitable as Nadal continues to build the case that maybe there's nothing really wrong with him at all. Nothing that can be fixed, anyway.

http://espn.go.com/tennis/french15/story/_/id/13006227/french-open-rafael-nadal-see-decline