Will Federer ever compete at world tour finals ever again?

[Shivashish Sarkar]

2016 YEC witnessed the absence of Roger for the first time in like 13 or 14 years. But looking at the future, what do you guys think about Rogers future in this tournament. Is he ever going to finish in the top 8 again? If you do feel this is still a possibility, when do you think will Roger last appear in this tournament, if given that Roger keeps healthy for the coming years.

This question is open for discussion. I would love to have inputs from all you guys here.

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[the AntiPusher]

2016 YEC witnessed the absence of Roger for the first time in like 13 or 14 years. But looking at the future, what do you guys think about Rogers future in this tournament. Is he ever going to finish in the top 8 again? If you do feel this is still a possibility, when do you think will Roger last appear in this tournament, if given that Roger keeps healthy for the coming years.

This question is open for discussion. I would love to have inputs from all you guys here.

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Roger should be back at the top 4 if he stays injury free. Roger's attacking game and ability to dictate from the baseline still creates way too many headaches for the majority of the league.

 

[El Dude]

I suspect he's got at least one more year of top 8 tennis, maybe two or even three.

 

[kskate2]

That's funny Dude. You went from 1 year to 3.

 

[El Dude]

That's funny Dude. You went from 1 year to 3.

Well, it is more a matter of diminishing percentages. If I had to put numbers to it, I'd say Federer's chances of making the top 8 in 2017-19 are roughly: 70/60/40%. Or something like that; that's assuming good health. Of course if he doesn't do it in 2017, it greatly diminishes his chances in 2018 and later.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Finishing in the top 8 rankings at YE means performing better than a lot of guys in the season. Consider this list of players.

1. Djokovic
2. Murray
3. Wawrinka
4. Raonic
5. Nishikori
6. Monfils
7. Thiem
8. Berdych
9. Cilic
10. Tsonga

The question is: Is Roger going to be able to perform better than at least 3 of these guys plus the rest of the field? Let's not forget he has points to defend until Wimbledon. Considering he will get an unfavourable draw at the Australian Open, he could go further down in the rankings due to an early exit. This could start a chain reaction resulting in further decline in rankings until Wimbledon. After that will he be able to gain enough points for the world tour finals considering the even more unfavourable draws he shall begin with shortly?


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[GameSetAndMath]

What a stupid question is that? After not playing for more than half year, he is ranked #16 in the race. Why would you think, he cannot make it back to top 8.

Assuming, he comes back recovered fully (or even partly), he will surely make it to top 8 as long as he is able to play the full season.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

GameSetAndMath

If think you are taking out seeding from the equation. I do think seedings will hurt him more. Read my previous post to understand my point.

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[El Dude]

While I agree he has a good chance of it, Game, I don't think it is a stupid question considering his age and the fact that is an increasingly crowded group among tier 2 players vying for spots in the #5-15 range.

Of course just playing all four Slams should help a lot--and playing more tournaments. He played 7 last year compared to his usual 17--only 28 matches. Let's say he plays 14-15 tournaments at a level slightly below 2014-15, and he's back in the top 8.

The other thing to consider, shivashish, is that some of those players are on a downward turn: Berdych and Tsonga, and of course Rafa who you didn't mention for some reason. But I'm guessing Berdych, Tsonga, and Monfils are all likely to fall out of the top 8 next year, joining Ferrer and Gasquet on the slippery slope of declining 30s. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Stan stumble at some point soon.

I'd group 2017 WTF candidates as follows:

Definitely: Andy, Novak
Probably: Kei, Milos, Cilic, Stan
Maybe: Rafa, Roger, Thiem
Outside chance: Berdych, Tsonga, Monfils, Kyrgios, Goffin, Bautista Agut, Zverev, Pouille, Dimitrov, Edmund

I consider that last "outside chance" group to be alternates for Roger and Rafa, depending upon their health. Some of those guys (e.g. Edmund, Dimitrov) have almost no chance, but I wanted to include all players who have a vague chance.

 

[Front242]

Del Potro might make it next year too. Would be good to see him there.

 

[the AntiPusher]

While I agree he has a good chance of it, Game, I don't think it is a stupid question considering his age and the fact that is an increasingly crowded group among tier 2 players vying for spots in the #5-15 range.

Of course just playing all four Slams should help a lot--and playing more tournaments. He played 7 last year compared to his usual 17--only 28 matches. Let's say he plays 14-15 tournaments at a level slightly below 2014-15, and he's back in the top 8.

The other thing to consider, shivashish, is that some of those players are on a downward turn: Berdych and Tsonga, and of course Rafa who you didn't mention for some reason. But I'm guessing Berdych, Tsonga, and Monfils are all likely to fall out of the top 8 next year, joining Ferrer and Gasquet on the slippery slope of declining 30s. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Stan stumble at some point soon.

I'd group 2017 WTF candidates as follows:

Definitely: Andy, Novak
Probably: Kei, Milos, Cilic, Stan
Maybe: Rafa, Roger, Thiem
Outside chance: Berdych, Tsonga, Monfils, Kyrgios, Goffin, Bautista Agut, Zverev, Pouille, Dimitrov, Edmund

I consider that last "outside chance" group to be alternates for Roger and Rafa, depending upon their health. Some of those guys (e.g. Edmund, Dimitrov) have almost no chance, but I wanted to include all players who have a vague chance.

I absolutely can guarantee that Rafa isn't no darn maybe..this is not being sensitive but from what I having been reading, Rafa and team have the eye of the tiger again. I still have a lot of reservations in regards to his demising reportorial of weapons but I am hopeful that Rafa sees his career in dire straits and will make the proper adjustments

 

[El Dude]

Yeah, del Potro should be on that list somewhere.

I only put Rafa as a maybe because the field is actually pretty deep and crowded. I could see close points in the #5-15 range.

Now maybe Rafa surges and gets back into the mix with Novak and Andy; who knows, maybe we see an Indian Summer for the Big Four in 2017...but I'll believe it when I see it. For Rafa we'll know a lot more at the AO, with clay season being somewhat make or break for him.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

GameSetAndMath

If think you are taking out seeding from the equation. I do think seedings will hurt him more. Read my previous post to understand my point.

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I understand your issue about seeding. But, I see it as a non-issue. Didn't Serena win the AO when seeded at #89. Of course, ATP is no WTA.

Also, I am not saying that Fed will win AO. What I am saying is that getting into top eight will be a piece of cake for Fed next year, assuming he is mostly healthy and plays a reasonably full schedule.
I am not so much worried about the seeding. The only thing that might happen is that he might have to play tougher players early and easier players later due to his low seeding.

Also, there are so many tourneys in the space between AO and RG that I would not be surprised, if he gets back to top 8 by the time RG rolls around. Fed did not play Rotterdam, Indian Wells, Miami and Madrid last year. Those are all places where he can add points without subtracting anything.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Yeah, del Potro should be on that list somewhere.

I only put Rafa as a maybe because the field is actually pretty deep and crowded. I could see close points in the #5-15 range.

Now maybe Rafa surges and gets back into the mix with Novak and Andy; who knows, maybe we see an Indian Summer for the Big Four in 2017...but I'll believe it when I see it. For Rafa we'll know a lot more at the AO, with clay season being somewhat make or break for him.

Rafa has failed in the clay season twice in a row. Three strikes you are out. If Rafa fails in clay season again in 2017, I will be willingly to write him off publicly.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Yeah, del Potro should be on that list somewhere.

I only put Rafa as a maybe because the field is actually pretty deep and crowded. I could see close points in the #5-15 range.

Now maybe Rafa surges and gets back into the mix with Novak and Andy; who knows, maybe we see an Indian Summer for the Big Four in 2017...but I'll believe it when I see it. For Rafa we'll know a lot more at the AO, with clay season being somewhat make or break for him.

Rafa has failed in the clay season twice in a row. Three strikes you are out. If Rafa fails in clay season again in 2017, I will be willingly to write him off publicly.

If we are measuring having a successful clay season on 2004-2014 then yes it was a great one. However compared to the rest of the ATP tour , Rafa had a very successful clay season last year until he pulled out of RG. I agree that he needs to have a great AO because all his past 7 grand slams have been his Waterloo.

 

[El Dude]

Yeah, I agree GS&M, although he did win Monte Carlo last year, and while his finals opponent was relatively weak (Monfils) he had to beat both Stan and Andy to get there, as well as Thiem.

So if I'm a Rafa fan I'm not feeling optimistic as much as hopeful: there's a narrative that sees him return to the form he showed at MC, stay healthy and win a couple Masters and challenge for his 10th Roland Garros title.

As far as rankings go, he could make up a lot of ground with just decent results. Last year he went out in the 1R at the AO, 3R at RG, didn't play Wimbledon, and 4R at the US Open.

Again, we'll know a lot more at the AO. Rafa hasn't made it to even a Slam QF in almost two years (RG 2015) or a Slam final in almost three (RG 2014). If he goes out before the QF at AO, it isn't a good sign. But I suspect he'll do fairly well, depending upon the draw.

 

[delPoFearhand]

I think saying Cilic probably in is a bit strong. I know he's playing well right now, but consistency has never been his strong suit. I'd demote him to the "maybe" category.

But yeah, I think Roger will be back in it. He's got it in his mind that he's playing for another few years, and I see him still dictating play against the entire field right up to the top 2.

 

[the AntiPusher]

While I agree he has a good chance of it, Game, I don't think it is a stupid question considering his age and the fact that is an increasingly crowded group among tier 2 players vying for spots in the #5-15 range.

Of course just playing all four Slams should help a lot--and playing more tournaments. He played 7 last year compared to his usual 17--only 28 matches. Let's say he plays 14-15 tournaments at a level slightly below 2014-15, and he's back in the top 8.

The other thing to consider, shivashish, is that some of those players are on a downward turn: Berdych and Tsonga, and of course Rafa who you didn't mention for some reason. But I'm guessing Berdych, Tsonga, and Monfils are all likely to fall out of the top 8 next year, joining Ferrer and Gasquet on the slippery slope of declining 30s. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Stan stumble at some point soon.

I'd group 2017 WTF candidates as follows:

Definitely: Andy, Novak
Probably: Kei, Milos, Cilic, Stan
Maybe: Rafa, Roger, Thiem
Outside chance: Berdych, Tsonga, Monfils, Kyrgios, Goffin, Bautista Agut, Zverev, Pouille, Dimitrov, Edmund

I consider that last "outside chance" group to be alternates for Roger and Rafa, depending upon their health. Some of those guys (e.g. Edmund, Dimitrov) have almost no chance, but I wanted to include all players who have a vague chance.

Besides Berdych, I seriously doubt if anyone in your outside chance will make it including
Pouille and Kyrgios.

 

[Kieran]

It'll be hard for Roger to be top 8 next year. Not impossible, but hard. Physically he's showing signs of wear and tear, and players just won't be so nervous against him next season. As shiva says, he drops down the seedings too, so he's dangling bait. He'll be rusty and under pressure from the get go. It's gonna be hard...

 

[Front242]

Some fans on tennis.com said they saw Roger practicing last week and he was looking incredible and in the poster's own words, "moving like he was 25". Carol will be delighted seeing as she thinks RoboRoger is faster than ever Time will tell I guess as to how good he'll be once he returns. Hoping to see Tommy Haas back next year too.