Who will surprise and disappoint us at Wimbledon?

[Denis]

I know the draws are not yet out, but it might be fun to speculate anyway. No particular definition of surprise and disappointment. I usually think around the lines of ranking. I am thinking:
Surprises:
Berdych
Xavier Malisse – good grass player, Wimbledon is by far his best GS.
Berankis
Sijsling – kind of a Rosol without the spitting
Querrey
Tsonga – maybe? Finally?
Anderson
Hewitt

Disapointments:
Bagdhatis – usually really good on grass, but I can’t remember his last ATP win, doing aweful at the moment
Federer
Del Potro

Ps why is Roddick on the player list on the Wimbledon site?

 

[Johnsteinbeck]

^ because he's gonna make a surprise comeback. he's currently playing qualifications under the name of "John Cocktoasten". honestly? no clue.

btw, checking the player profiles, i was more surprised by the fact that there are two players called Joao Sousa and Joao Souza. i thought that would've been a typo. in fact, one's from Brazil and the other one is Portuguese. the things you learn...

as to your list - i guess the question is who should be surprised or disappointed. take Malisse - he's a great grass player indeed, potentially. with the right draw, even a quarterfinal showing wouldn't surprise me a whole lot. not that i'd expect it, but i would make a lot of sense.

 

[El Dude]

As usual, Bodo's not a fan of Rafa's chances at Wimbledon:

http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2013/06/uncomfortable-questions/47950/#.UcBSZJzuxOk

I'm going to have to outright disagree with him and say Rafa's the favorite. I'd rank them in this order:

1. Rafa
2. Novak
3. Roger
4. Andy
5. Jo-Wilfried
6. David

---

As for the original question, its all relative to expectations. For instance, do you expect that Roger Federer will defend his title? Then you might say he disappoints if he goes out in the SF. In a way I'd say it will be disappointing for any of the Big Four not to win it, or at least make the final.

For any of the Young Guns - at least the three seeded ones, Raonic, Janowicz, and Dimitrov - it will be disappointing to finish any lower than the 3R and a surprise if any make the QF. For me the over/under on disappointment/surprise is the 3R/4R. 3R is OK but a bit disappointing in that it is still in the first half of the tournament, while 4R is an accomplishment because it is where the men start getting separated from the boys, so to speak. If you make the 4R at a Slam you're playing pretty good.

When is the draw out? Friday?

 

[Kieran]

In fairness, this isn't Bodo in Rafatigue mode, I think he's making a good point. Apart from the gun-shy comment. But other than this, the news that Rafas knee guy said to skip Halle, the lack of a practice tourney and the emotional impact of going back to Wimbledon will all take a toll.

But I think he'll be fine.

A real shock at W would be a non-4 player making the final. Or even the semi. But a non-4 player winning it? Both shocking but good for that game...

 

[herios]

As usual, Bodo's not a fan of Rafa's chances at Wimbledon:

http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2013/06/uncomfortable-questions/47950/#.UcBSZJzuxOk

I'm going to have to outright disagree with him and say Rafa's the favorite. I'd rank them in this order:

1. Rafa
2. Novak
3. Roger
4. Andy
5. Jo-Wilfried
6. David

---

As for the original question, its all relative to expectations. For instance, do you expect that Roger Federer will defend his title? Then you might say he disappoints if he goes out in the SF. In a way I'd say it will be disappointing for any of the Big Four not to win it, or at least make the final.

For any of the Young Guns - at least the three seeded ones, Raonic, Janowicz, and Dimitrov - it will be disappointing to finish any lower than the 3R and a surprise if any make the QF. For me the over/under on disappointment/surprise is the 3R/4R. 3R is OK but a bit disappointing in that it is still in the first half of the tournament, while 4R is an accomplishment because it is where the men start getting separated from the boys, so to speak. If you make the 4R at a Slam you're playing pretty good.

When is the draw out? Friday?

---

Always Friday's for slams. As far as rafa's chances, his seeding being 5, it is less likely to get through and win it all, as he could face back to back to back the other top 3.
BTW, did you guys know that the smart money (betters) point to a most likely Nole win:clap

 

[isabelle]

Andy is the fav for me then comes Nole, Nadal and Olderer
Hope Tsonga, Delpony, Gasquet will be decent dark horses

 

[Kieran]

he could face back to back to back the other top 3.

Admit it: the only man in the top 4 who could pull off that schedule successfully is Nadal. Looking forward to the draw before I rubber stamp my predictions...

 

[Front242]

I won't call it a surprise because I expect him to do well draw permitting but nonetheless it's more likely to go under positives, so put Haas up high on the list of those who will do well.

I'd like to see Hewitt do well but unfortunately I can see him win 2 easy sets and blow the next 3 and lose in his first or 2nd match. Hope I'm wrong though.

Disappointments:

1. Isner
2. Tipsarevic
3. Hewitt
4. Del Potro
5. Dimitrov
6. Ferrer ? (Is he due a bad run at the slams. I see he just lost to Malisse and he was the defending champ at Rosmalen)
7. Wawrinka (Great year so far but don't see a great run on grass personally)
8. Gulbis (I'd love to see him do well. Beating Berdych last year and failing miserably next match was poor but what we've come to expect from Erratic Ernie sadly.)
9. Feliciano Lopez (Great game on grass but form is poor most of the season)
10. Tomic (His first Wimbledon run was great but he's done nothing much anywhere ever since)
11. Berdych (Have a feeling he'll actually lose early this year. Form of late has been poor)

Surprises:

1. Rosol (His ranking has come a long way since his mighty win last year and clearly this is a better surface for him than clay so I think he'll easily get past the 2nd round this year with that confidence. When I say surprise I mean do better than last year, not make week 2!)
2. Falla (Great player on grass and gave Fed a hell of a scare a few years ago. Beat Isner in 5 before and if in form he can pose a threat to quite a few on grass)
3. Haas (Unlucky last year drawing Kohlschreiber who was in great form after his decent performance in Halle beating none other than Rafael Nadal. This year Haas has played stunning for his age and his higher ranking means he's unlikely to get knocked out in his first match. I'd love to see him make the 4th round or quarters)
4. Stepanek (Nothing to gauge this on really except that he's got a good game for grass and is unpredictable but good enough to seriously challenge top 10 players when in form)
5. Youzhny (His performance at Halle was great and he played very well earlier this season even on clay so he's very much in form)
6. Adrian Ungur (Played well against Nalbandian last year but was unlucky to meet Fed next but nice game on grass despite the ranking)
7. Malisse (Did well last year and gave Fed a tough match and just beat Ferrer in straights)
8. Daniel Brands (Really improving and that booming serve and FH that proved so effective on clay will be amplified on grass)
9. Benneteau (Did very well last year, not well enough for some non Fed fans though)
10. Cilic (Played a great tournament at Queens and gave Murray a very tough match. Hope to see him continue this form)
11. Goffin? Who knows. He's inconsistent but certainly can play when he wants to.

I'd love to see Petzschner back playing well on grass but haven't seen him play I think since that 2010 match against Nadal and I see his ranking has tumbled but you never know. Big serving guy who has potential to do well on grass. Of course really everything is pure speculation as the draw will make things clearer and certain players are just a bad matchup against some but easily beaten by others. We'll find out pretty soon.

 

[Johnsteinbeck]

oh Bodo. i love how he's making Roger winning a tourney without facing a top ten opponent and beating the Doctor in three rather tight sets into a new beginning, as if all those clean losses to top ten players (and below) that year never even happened.

 

[huntingyou]

Bodo should depart this planet, the sooner the better.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

he could face back to back to back the other top 3.

Admit it: the only man in the top 4 who could pull off that schedule successfully is Nadal. Looking forward to the draw before I rubber stamp my predictions...

that's just wrong, murray could too.

 

[Johnsteinbeck]

^ naturally. given that he's most likely the one with the worst combined grand slam record against the other Top Three, and given that he's never beat two of them in a slam, yeah, i guess he's just as likely to pull this off.

mind you, of course he "could". but so could Roger. or Novak.

 

[Front242]

I hope Roddick surprises this year. Good to see him playing and listed on the Wimbledon site

 

[Kieran]

he could face back to back to back the other top 3.

Admit it: the only man in the top 4 who could pull off that schedule successfully is Nadal. Looking forward to the draw before I rubber stamp my predictions...

that's just wrong, murray could too.

:laydownlaughing :snigger :clap

 

[shawnbm]

he could face back to back to back the other top 3.

Admit it: the only man in the top 4 who could pull off that schedule successfully is Nadal. Looking forward to the draw before I rubber stamp my predictions...

ah, Br. Kieran--me thinks the Serbian Slayer is capable of the same as well. Nadal will not be seeded fifth; I just can't see the AELTC doing that in light of his record there and being top dog this year with an 8th FO.

 

[Front242]

he could face back to back to back the other top 3.

Admit it: the only man in the top 4 who could pull off that schedule successfully is Nadal. Looking forward to the draw before I rubber stamp my predictions...

ah, Br. Kieran--me thinks the Serbian Slayer is capable of the same as well. Nadal will not be seeded fifth; I just can't see the AELTC doing that in light of his record there and being top dog this year with an 8th FO.

Hard to tell really. They went by the book in Roland Garros although who knows with the Wimbledon formula but using their formula he's fifth alright. No idea how many points separate him and Ferrer now since Ferrer lost early and failed to defend his Rosmalen title.

 

[Iona16]

he could face back to back to back the other top 3.

Admit it: the only man in the top 4 who could pull off that schedule successfully is Nadal. Looking forward to the draw before I rubber stamp my predictions...

ah, Br. Kieran--me thinks the Serbian Slayer is capable of the same as well. Nadal will not be seeded fifth; I just can't see the AELTC doing that in light of his record there and being top dog this year with an 8th FO.

In 2010 Federer was the No. 1 seed for Wimbledon ahead of Nadal in a reverse of their world rankings. Nadal moved into the top spot after winning the French Open, while Federer slipped to No. 2 after losing in the quarterfinals in Paris.

I'm afraid all that is relevant is Rafa's ranking when the draw is made and his grass-court record over the past 2 years. His 8th French Open title isn't a factor in his seeding for Wimbledon and neither is his Wimbledon record over the past 6-7 years.

 

[tented]

I hope Roddick surprises this year. Good to see him playing and listed on the Wimbledon site

That's a mistake on their part. Someone hasn't updated their website in a while, because Andy is definitely retired.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

In regards to Rafa at Wimbledon.Of course his draw will be a key.Though I guess we can also say that with the rest of the top 4.If Rafa gets
through the 1st week.I am confident he will do well at the business end of the tournament.

 

[Moxie]

he could face back to back to back the other top 3.

Admit it: the only man in the top 4 who could pull off that schedule successfully is Nadal. Looking forward to the draw before I rubber stamp my predictions...

ah, Br. Kieran--me thinks the Serbian Slayer is capable of the same as well. Nadal will not be seeded fifth; I just can't see the AELTC doing that in light of his record there and being top dog this year with an 8th FO.

In 2010 Federer was the No. 1 seed for Wimbledon ahead of Nadal in a reverse of their world rankings. Nadal moved into the top spot after winning the French Open, while Federer slipped to No. 2 after losing in the quarterfinals in Paris.

I'm afraid all that is relevant is Rafa's ranking when the draw is made and his grass-court record over the past 2 years. His 8th French Open title isn't a factor in his seeding for Wimbledon and neither is his Wimbledon record over the past 6-7 years.

Yes, but, isn't Ferrer's grass court record also a factor? Rafa is only 325 points behind David, and Ferrer has never featured hugely at Wimbledon, whereas, two years ago, if that's the measure, Nadal was in the final. It'll be interesting to see where they put Nadal.