Who will end the year as world #1?

[Federberg]

I honestly have no idea what to expect from Novak. I highly doubt he returns to 2015 form, but I also highly doubt that this is the new norm. Chances are he bounces back, but to what degree? An optimistic outlook would see him returning to his "first among equals" form of 2012-14, but I suspect he'll be a notch below that. He'll probably win another Slam or two, maybe even three, but I don't think he'll ever win two Slams in a year again.

I admire your courage in coming out with that prediction. He's an all time great. He still has the ability to come back in my view. I just don't think this year will see him fully firing in time to get back to No 1. The big question is whether :

1, there'll be other people stepping up while he's away.

2, will his return to form be capable of dealing with this new version of Roger

I'm not sure about either

 

[El Dude]

My only prediction, really, is that he won't win two Slams in a year again. If he wins RG then all bets are off, but I think that's unlikely.

As far as 2018 and beyond goes, well, Novak isn't getting any younger and I think the field is only getting deeper and stronger, at least beyond the Big Four.

 

[Federberg]

My only prediction, really, is that he won't win two Slams in a year again. If he wins RG then all bets are off, but I think that's unlikely.

As far as 2018 and beyond goes, well, Novak isn't getting any younger and I think the field is only getting deeper and stronger, at least beyond the Big Four.

I hear you, but we're not living in a world where Roger has a very real chance of ending the year with more than one slam. This is a guy who not so long ago people (can't remember if you were one of them) were saying he was done and wasn't going to win another slam - something I always argued against simply because he was continuing to get deep in slams. Now look at the turn around. I think it's too soon to say Novak won't win two Slams in a year again. It's far less likely I agree, but the likes of the Big 3 are simply too good to write off completely. I would be more comfortable saying that about Rafa, but even there I'm a bit wary. Let's see how the rest of this year goes for Novak before we can completely write off a guy who last year held all the slams

 

[El Dude]

I thought Roger probably wouldn't win another Slam, but still held out hope. But I also thought (and think) that if he won #18 it would be easier to win #19, so whereas before the AO I might have given him a 20-30ish% chance of winning #18, now I give him a 50% (or so) of winning #19.

And I'm definitely not writing Novak off, especially not "completely" (which would imply no more Slams). As I said, I think he's got a good chance of winning 1-2 more, maybe 3-4. I just don't see two-Slam dominance again. That isn't writing him off, just being a bit tempered in expectations. Consider that, in the Open Era, only two players have had two-Slam years in the year they turned 30 or older: Jimmy Connors in 1982 and Rod Laver in 1969. Now of course Novak could become the third, but I'm just pointing out how rare it is that a player does that.

But yeah, with those three you just never know - they are possibly the three greatest players in tennis history so could set new precedents in different ways.

 

[Federberg]

But yeah, with those three you just never know - they are possibly the three greatest players in tennis history so could set new precedents in different ways.

Yup. That's all I'm saying