Who will end the year as world #1?

[mrzz]

Right now the race for YE#1 seems as open as possible. I selected the choices based on the current top 10 (on live rankings), and I respected the order. Oddly enough it seems that it is easy to mount a case against any of them:

1) Murray: too many early losses, not playing that well. Distant *8 in the race right now.
2) Djokovic: ditto. Even further back in the race.
3) Wawrinka: yeah, right.
4) Nishikori: hardly will be fit enough for it
5) Raonic: ditto, and still needs to improve.
6) Nadal: better than last year but not quite there yet. Can gain a lot on clay season but then comes the grass and the quicker courts.
7) Federer: Playing well but will need to show more consistency. Needs to keep healthy too.
8) Cilic: Needs a lot of things, to translate some flashes of brilliance in some distant relative of consistency would be a start
9)Thiem: Needs to be a better player.
10) Tsonga: Long, long shot.

My dark horse on this would be... Dimitrov. I won´t even bother to put up the case against him though. I bet most people dark horse will be Kyrgios.

I put it this way to emphasize how open it is.

My bet is, despite the results of late, on Djokovic. I don´t think he gets nowhere as near as his 2015/2016 level, but I think he´ll recover his consistency and slowly crawl back to #1, which he will grab back at the YEC.

My second bet is Federer. One more slam and his shot becomes very real.

On third place my favorite player to bash: Murray. He should be my second pick, but let me be a bit biased.


P.S. I wanted to put an "other" option, but it seems I cannot have more than 10 options, so I included other on the Tsonga option. Please write your choice in case you pick this option.

 

[britbox]

I'm going to ride the crest of a wave and call it for Roger. Unlikely maybe, but nobody else is setting the world alight and he's got a major in the bag already.

Djokovic would be my second choice. Despite Novak's recent downturn, I think he'll hit a purple patch at some point during the season, rediscover his best and win a major.

 

[britbox]

Actually, Roger's schedule might not be heavy enough to garner enough points, so maybe I'll revise and go with the Djoker.

 

[El Dude]

Man, who knows. It is just so up in the air and I suspect we won't have a good sense of things until Wimbledon. If Roger wins Wimbledon, we have to take him seriously for year-end #1, as improbable as that seems. If Rafa somehow catches fire during the clay season, wins a couple Masters and RG, he is a serious contender. If Novak wins any one of the pre-RG Masters and regains his confidence, I like his chances going into RG; if he wins RG, he's my favorite. Andy? The only way he finishes #1 is by default - that is, if the Bigger Three fade.

As for Dark Horse candidates, Kyrgios needs to be taken seriously although I can't imagine him being consistent enough to be YE#1 this year. Thiem should also be considered, because he seems to be consolidated himself as a legit 2nd tier and is due for a Masters. Of course he'd also need at least one Slam. Dimitrov, maybe.

It very well may be decided at the WTF.

 

[britbox]

Man, who knows. It is just so up in the air and I suspect we won't have a good sense of things until Wimbledon. If Roger wins Wimbledon, we have to take him seriously for year-end #1, as improbably as that seems. If Rafa somehow catches fire during the clay season, wins a couple Masters and RG, he is a serious contender. If Novak re-finds his form and wins any one of the pre-RG Masters, I like his chances. Andy? The only way he finishes #1 is by default - that is, if the Bigger Three fade.

As for Dark Horse candidates, Kyrgios needs to be taken seriously although I can't imagine him being consistent enough to be YE#1 this year. Thiem should also be considered, because he seems to be consolidated himself as a legit 2nd tier and is due for a Masters. Of course he'd also need at least one Slam. Dimitrov, maybe.

It very well may be decided at the WTF.

Good points on the first paragraph. I can't really see beyond any of the usual four suspects - Fed, Novak, Rafa and Murray... and it's definitely up for grabs. I don't think Novak's tailspin is terminal by any measure, he'll come back strong at some point.. question is when?

I don't think any of the guys in the second paragraph will get a sniff at number one this year. I know you're talking about them as darkhorses... but personally can't see a darkhorse finishing the year at the top of the pack.

WTF would be a great scenario to decide it.

 

[Ricardo]

have to go with one of the proven 3, and i still don't think Murray has it in him. Rafa is proven, but he is significantly slower than he was so he has to grind even harder than usual. Novak is the favourite, his peak form isn't there but it's only been 3 months so a huge chunk of season left for him to catch up. As for Roger, must be seen as the least favourite, like BB said, he's geared up his schedule differently to others obviously it's done so that he can prolong his career instead of chasing ranking points. Put simply, he is not in it (not enough anyway) to win it.

 

[DarthFed]

Somehow I feel like it's a jinx to start talking about Roger's chances haha. It's already an incredible year even if he doesn't win another match but I will say that if he pulls off a title here at IW and stays healthy he may have a solid chance to get to #1 DURING this year.

I still think it's way too early to give him a decent shot at finishing #1 when he will be 36 in August. For the rest of the year I think it's almost all about Wimbledon. Stay healthy, get a top 4 seed to hopefully avoid a brutal draw like AO and he has a pretty realistic chance at winning his 8th title there. And if he does that the #1 rank will eventually be within sight, even if he just grabs it temporarily that'd be hugely impressive.

 

[mrzz]

^I get you, Twisted, but given that after Wimbledon 2016 he added zero points to his tally, the YE#1 is actually (mathematically speaking) his best shot (not to mention that he plays well there). Before that, all other players have all their last-third-of-2016 points counting, while Federer doesn´t.

 

[isabelle]

Sir Andy, who's else ??

 

[DarthFed]

^I get you, Twisted, but given that after Wimbledon 2016 he added zero points to his tally, the YE#1 is actually (mathematically speaking) his best shot (not to mention that he plays well there). Before that, all other players have all their last-third-of-2016 points counting, while Federer doesn´t.

True, I actually wasn't thinking of it like that but if it does come down to YEC that's a lot of points for Roger to gain and Murray won it last year while Djoker made the final...

 

[El Dude]

I know we don't want to jinx it, but let's not cater too much to magical thinking - I'm pretty confident that our speculation will not in any way impact Roger's performance!

But let's consider this possibility: Roger wins IW, or at least goes deep. Even if he loses to Kyrgios today, that means he'll probably play Miami and gain some more points there. Then let's say he holds his own during clay season, picks up some points. He goes into grass season probably ranked #5-6. Now if he wins Halle and Wimbledon, all of a sudden he's a legit threat for YE #1. He'd probably need to win another Masters, Basel, and the World Tour Finals - but that's all possible.

So yeah, this is the sort of resume he would need: Two Slams (has one already), 1-2 Masters, 1-2 of Halle and Basel, and the WTF. Just on wins that's 7000-8500 points. Add in deep performances at other tournaments and he's around 10,000, which should be enough to be #1 this year with no clearly dominant player.

Of course that all depends upon two things: One is that Roger can maintain his form/health, and two, Novak or Rafa don't re-find their dominant level. I think if the first holds true, Roger will have a better year than Andy, no matter how Andy plays. Let's be honest: this version of Roger is better than Andy has ever been. The only players that could legitimately surpass Roger's current level are peak Novak or Rafa. Of course we might not see either of those two creatures again, so who knows...

 

[DarthFed]

I know, but I just can't help but be superstitious when it comes to sports. I'm glad that's usually the only thing I'm superstitious about but it's bad enough.

I actually don't think it would take all that. If he wins a 2nd slam and just the YEC with a couple other good results like winning 1-2 of the 500 point tourneys, going deep at USO, etc) I think he'd finish #1. The way Novak and Andy have started this season it'd take total domination from here on out for them to get near 10,000 points.

 

[mrzz]

I know we don't want to jinx it, but let's not cater too much to magical thinking

If only you had posted it yesterday maybe all those black chickens would still be alive.

 

[mrzz]

If Federer wins IW -- and rumours of Djokovic withdraw from Miami are true -- I guess I will change the question for "when Federer gets to #1?".

With Murray out of Miami, he is starting to get to far back on the race. After Miami we could have Federer, Nadal and Wawrinka way out in front. With the clay season ahead, Nadal has a real shot -- specially if he does well at Miami. In fact it is quite strange he never won there, given the slow courts and the climate, he is always one of the top three favorites.

Anyway, landscape starting to settle. Djokovic and Murray may find themselves around 3000 points behind in the race after Miami, that´s a lot of ground to recover.

 

[Ricardo]

what the hell, if Fed gets to #1 he should just quit because it makes mockery of the sport.

ok, it's just a way of saying 'you cannot be serious'!

 

[britbox]

^ I was looking at some of the historical stats. If Federer is a Year End Number 1, he'd be 36 yrs 144 days which would surpass all the below.


Open Era / Official ATP rankings from 1973:

Oldest Number 1: Andre Agassi, 33 yrs 131 days.
Oldest Year End Number 1: Ivan Lendl, 29 yrs 299 days

Open Era / 1969-1973

There was no official centralised rankings system, so the End of Year #1 was decided by panels, journalists etc... but these different groups could come up with different answers.

In 1970, different bodies recognised Laver, Newcombe and Rosewall as #1.
At the end of 1970, Laver was 32 and Rosewall was 36. Rosewall was 36 yrs and 59 days.

Split Era / Pro-am

In 1960, Rosewall and Pancho Gonzalez were deemed joint number 1, Gonzalez was 32.

 

[mrzz]

I fully expect Djokovic to regroup during the clay season -- which doesn´t mean I expect him to sweep it all, but to be a strong contender for the title come RG time. If he regroups quickly and manages to amass a fair deal of points in the process, we may have a real three or four horse race for #1 (big three + Wawrinka, yes, I am already counting Murray out).

 

[Federberg]

I fully expect Djokovic to regroup during the clay season -- which doesn´t mean I expect him to sweep it all, but to be a strong contender for the title come RG time. If he regroups quickly and manages to amass a fair deal of points in the process, we may have a real three or four horse race for #1 (big three + Wawrinka, yes, I am already counting Murray out).

Such disrespect to Murray!

I agree, although I have my doubts how quickly a rhythm player like Novak can get back up to speed. I have Stan as a slight favourite for Roland Garros given prevailing clay court prowess and confidence. Not really holding out much hope for Roger. I'm not sure a clay slam will be conducive to his new attacking game. He may well have Sampras'd himself

 

[DarthFed]

I fully expect Djokovic to regroup during the clay season -- which doesn´t mean I expect him to sweep it all, but to be a strong contender for the title come RG time. If he regroups quickly and manages to amass a fair deal of points in the process, we may have a real three or four horse race for #1 (big three + Wawrinka, yes, I am already counting Murray out).

I'm thinking more by the end of the year he will start to show signs of life which will set him up for a nice rebound in 2018. Right now he's dealing with injuries and what has to be a pretty big loss of confidence.

 

[El Dude]

I honestly have no idea what to expect from Novak. I highly doubt he returns to 2015 form, but I also highly doubt that this is the new norm. Chances are he bounces back, but to what degree? An optimistic outlook would see him returning to his "first among equals" form of 2012-14, but I suspect he'll be a notch below that. He'll probably win another Slam or two, maybe even three, but I don't think he'll ever win two Slams in a year again.