Worth bumping this thread. Andy is now guaranteed to be #1 after Wimbledon, although Rafa can still take it if he has a strong hard court season, although it will be very hard if Andy wins Wimbledon and also has a strong second half.
As far as year-end #1 goes, here are the current (through the 4R) points:
1. Rafa 7095
2. Roger 4905
3. Thiem 3345
4. Stan 3150
5. Zverev 2710
6. Novak 2405
7. Andy 2290
8. Cilic 2065
9. Dimitrov 1925
10. Goffin 1820
Rafa still has over 2000 point lead, although if Roger wins Wimbledon he's up to 6545, closing the gap to 550 points - giving him a good chance of passing Rafa in a part of the year that he generally plays better. If Andy wins, he's at 3930, if Novak wins 4225...so both would be gaining ground, but still far behind. Right now it really seems to be between Roger and Rafa.