Who can beat Nadal at RG 2019?

[Moxie]

I've distracted the WTF thread with conversations about Rafa and RG. I feel I should start a thread, if only to move the conversation. I know that it's early, but maybe we can take the conversation here. As to a recap, not everyone believes that Thiem is the anointed one. Djokovic will surely have something to say. Will Rafa still be in form next May? @El Dude and @DarthFed and I are arguing about Rafa v. Novak, in terms of peak and in terms of the coming year.

 

[Moxie]

I was going to add more options before this thread decided to post itself. Anyway, feel free to add opinions.

 

[El Dude]

Your thread title and poll are two separate questions. I still think Rafa is the favorite to win it (as of now), but Novak can beat him. Everyone else is a dim glimmer and highly unlikely barring some combination of factors (hobbled and/or aged Rafa, greatly improved Thiem/Zverev/Tsitsipas, resurgent Wawrinka, etc), but anything is possible.

 

[El Dude]

Or to put it another way...

Rafa
(yards)
Novak
(miles)
Everyone else

 

[Nadalfan2013]

@ this thread!

Thanks for the laugh!

 

[Moxie]

Your thread title and poll are two separate questions. I still think Rafa is the favorite to win it (as of now), but Novak can beat him. Everyone else is a dim glimmer and highly unlikely barring some combination of factors (hobbled and/or aged Rafa, greatly improved Thiem/Zverev/Tsitsipas, resurgent Wawrinka, etc), but anything is possible.

Every time you start a thread, then you decide to add a poll, it asks you for a question. I always try to ask a different question, so as not to be repetitive. Sorry to be ambiguous, but oh, well!

 

[Moxie]

@ this thread!

Thanks for the laugh!

It's really boring that you're such a Nadal fan tool. You never talk tennis, you never really contribute, you just blow smoke up Rafa's ass. I'm sorry, but I find that boring as a poster and really irritating as a Nadal fan. Can you try to do better?

 

[Nadalfan2013]

It's really boring that you're such a Nadal fan tool. You never talk tennis, you never really contribute, you just blow smoke up Rafa's ass. I'm sorry, but I find that boring as a poster and really irritating as a Nadal fan. Can you try to do better?

Please re-read your thread, think a little bit, and then you will understand why I laughed. OF COURSE Nadal is most likely to win RG 2019, he is BY FAR the favorite. You call yourself a Nadal fan and then you create a thread asking who's is the favorite to win RG next year inviting other fanbases to put down Nadal and start unnecessary debate. Can YOU try to do better? And many Federer fans troll much more than me with rude attacks towards Nadal, maybe you should address them first.

 

[Moxie]

Please re-read your thread, think a little bit, and then you will understand why I laughed. OF COURSE Nadal is most likely to win RG 2019, he is BY FAR the favorite. You call yourself a Nadal fan and then you create a thread asking who's is the favorite to win RG next year inviting other fanbases to put down Nadal and start unnecessary debate. Can YOU try to do better? And many Federer fans troll much more than me with rude attacks towards Nadal, maybe you should address them first.

This was a thread to continue a conversation that was derailing the WTF one. We were debating whether Novak at his best beats Rafa at RG. I couldn't think how to rework it into a new thread other than this way. But don't be so offended. Rafa is the favorite at RG until one of his legs drops off. We're just having a conversation. I am a Nadal fan. It doesn't mean I have to act like a tool. Chill out.

 

[monfed]

It's too early to talk about this now but it all depends on Nadal's form entering RG. If his form suddenly drops to the floor like in 2015 where he started to lose to even his lapdogs like Verdasco at Farcelona as you may recall and loses some clay MS like Mickey Carlo to fakervic then that leaves a little room for faker or even Thiem to win RG. Thiem's too much of a choker and I can't see how he can get 3 sets of RAFA on that zero gravity court against a rampaging Nadal.

However if the clay monster is anywhere close to his 2017 or even 2018 form, I'm afraid the field has absolutely no chance and we'll be better off fast forwarding to Wimbledon. Maybe fakervic has something to say about that but he's always screwed up at PC so he cannot be trusted to save tennis even though he's our best bet. No slight to crocodilovic tards but even that 2016 victory he literally need mugray in the final to finally get over his psychological hump to win RG. I bet if it was Tsonga or maybe even Stan in the final,he would've screwed it up yet again. Shame because I really enjoyed laughing at fakervic for screwing up at RG.

 

[El Dude]

It's really boring that you're such a Nadal fan tool. You never talk tennis, you never really contribute, you just blow smoke up Rafa's ass. I'm sorry, but I find that boring as a poster and really irritating as a Nadal fan. Can you try to do better?

We should create a thread or forum for monfed and Nadalfan2013, so that every post they make automatically gets redirected there.

 

[Moxie]

We should create a thread or forum for monfed and Nadalfan2013, so that every post they make automatically gets redirected there.

:lulz2::hoops:

 

[monfed]

We should create a thread or forum for monfed and Nadalfan2013, so that every post they make automatically gets redirected there.

Meanie.

 

[monfed]

I picked Federer just for fun...But...what if it really happens. You will regret making this thread, Moxy.

 

[Moxie]

I picked Federer just for fun...But...what if it really happens. You will regret making this thread, Moxy.

If Fed even plays RG, and he wins, I'll give you the kudos you deserve, dude.

 

[mrzz]

Very interesting thread, Moxie. Thanks. I wish I could write a longer post...

Everyone is expecting me to answer Thiem (well, a few posters at least), and I surely include Thiem on the list, after all the question is who "can" (and I read it like "who has more than a puncher's chance of doing it").

Of course that, as of now, I put Nadal as the top favorite for RG. At the same time, I've been saying I don't think either he or Federer will ever win a major again (I do not root for that, it is just my opinion). The apparent contradiction is explained by this bit:

If you assume that tennis players decline in a slow and steady manner, than it would be quite illogical to bet against Nadal on RG. But I am assuming that the decline (in results) will be sharp. That at some point the big titles will just stop coming. This is obviously not that far fetched. Naturally, after this cutoff point is seen through, some near misses take place. That's part of the game.

So the "riskier" part of my proposition is that I already guessed that the cutoff actually was RG 2018.

Back to the point: If Nadal could show up in 2019 exactly the same way he showed up in 2018, he would be an overwhelming favorite. Against him, with a decent shot just Djokovic -- who would have history against him if they would meet in Chartrier -- and an with an outside shot Thiem, who is one of the few who know how to beat Nadal on clay. Apart from that, is science fiction.

However, 2019 is not 2018. Nadal will most likely be a tad worst than he was in 2018. He will arrive at RG much likely having won less, and less convincingly. At 2018, he was the #1, he was holding two majors. At 2019 he will be #2 or worst, will be holding precisely just the last RG title. His margins will be smaller. He will need to push his body to the limit.

Obviously, even a slightly inferior version of Nadal is an unbeatable adversary for 98% of the field at RG. So, the list of names of (realistic) possible Nadal beaters still is the same, Djokovic and Thiem. But for 2019 I include, as I would not in 2018, the "field". Some guy having a good day, and Nadal tired of the countless battles. At some point a warrior lowers his shield. Not necessarily you have Hector of Troy in front of you. Remember, the Red Baron was shot down by a guy on his first combat mission.

 

[Horsa]

We should create a thread or forum for monfed and Nadalfan2013, so that every post they make automatically gets redirected there.

Good idea! On the science forum I'm on they have a cesspit for junk threads. My original threads were never there but someone's responses to me were & my responses back & I got a P.M. explaining he was a problem poster & the posts had been put there as she didn't want my poetry thread littering up by his remarks & mine back to him & we had to chat in the chat room if we were going to chat as my poetry thread was for my poetry & constructive criticism only.

 

[isabelle]

Nole should win RG 2019

 

[tennisville]

I think Novak Djokovic

 

[Moxie]

Very interesting thread, Moxie. Thanks. I wish I could write a longer post...

Everyone is expecting me to answer Thiem (well, a few posters at least), and I surely include Thiem on the list, after all the question is who "can" (and I read it like "who has more than a puncher's chance of doing it").

Of course that, as of now, I put Nadal as the top favorite for RG. At the same time, I've been saying I don't think either he or Federer will ever win a major again (I do not root for that, it is just my opinion). The apparent contradiction is explained by this bit:

If you assume that tennis players decline in a slow and steady manner, than it would be quite illogical to bet against Nadal on RG. But I am assuming that the decline (in results) will be sharp. That at some point the big titles will just stop coming. This is obviously not that far fetched. Naturally, after this cutoff point is seen through, some near misses take place. That's part of the game.

So the "riskier" part of my proposition is that I already guessed that the cutoff actually was RG 2018.

Back to the point: If Nadal could show up in 2019 exactly the same way he showed up in 2018, he would be an overwhelming favorite. Against him, with a decent shot just Djokovic -- who would have history against him if they would meet in Chartrier -- and an with an outside shot Thiem, who is one of the few who know how to beat Nadal on clay. Apart from that, is science fiction.

However, 2019 is not 2018. Nadal will most likely be a tad worst than he was in 2018. He will arrive at RG much likely having won less, and less convincingly. At 2018, he was the #1, he was holding two majors. At 2019 he will be #2 or worst, will be holding precisely just the last RG title. His margins will be smaller. He will need to push his body to the limit.

Obviously, even a slightly inferior version of Nadal is an unbeatable adversary for 98% of the field at RG. So, the list of names of (realistic) possible Nadal beaters still is the same, Djokovic and Thiem. But for 2019 I include, as I would not in 2018, the "field". Some guy having a good day, and Nadal tired of the countless battles. At some point a warrior lowers his shield. Not necessarily you have Hector of Troy in front of you. Remember, the Red Baron was shot down by a guy on his first combat mission.

Only thing is I don't see why you calculate that Federer and Nadal quit winning Majors at essentially the exact same moment. Thing about clay, too, is that there just aren't many good clay specialists out there. IMO, at RG, the only one to stop him is likely to be Djokovic.