What Now, Roger?

[El Dude]

I made the mistake of clicking on the "Solution to all Federer's Problems" thread without looking at the author, hoping it would be an interesting conversation, so I thought I'd start an actually legit conversation about where Roger's at and what might be ahead for him. Some questions to consider: What is "wrong" with Roger? Can he fix it? What do you see for him in 2019? Is this his last year? Etc.

My understanding of game play itself on the court is very limited and I generally like to stick to the historical and statistical side of things, but will share my impressions. Now I watched about half of the match with Tsitsipas and my impression is that he really "should have" won that match. I don't say that easily, as there are many ways to win a match - but he is still the better player. It seemed to me that about 80% of the time he played better, just not in the clutch. His main problem was an inability to convert breakpoints; what was it, 0/12? His serve was good in the first half or so, but wasn't as good later on - but we can also put that on frustration. He was shanking quite a bit and hitting the ball into the net.

So what I saw was a Roger Federer with his basic skill-set intact, but A) an inability to win breakpoints and generally perform in clutch moments, B) a mediocre to poor return of serve, C) a tendency to shank, and D) (the new one) a tendency to hit into the net.

Anything else? He actually looked better than he did last year, although not nearly as good as in 2017. He was a bit closer to his 2014-15 self, in my opinion.

So the question: are those problems that are fixable? I would like to think that at 37 years old and 20 Slams he would be able to perform in the clutch, especially over a 20-year old. On the other hand, if his skills are starting to erode, that can impact confidence and it becomes a kind of snowball effect.

What say you?

 

[Nadalfan2013]

I entered this thread hoping not to be bored and fall asleep, but unfortunately I clicked without looking at the author. :sleep:

 

[rafanoy1992]

I made the mistake of clicking on the "Solution to all Federer's Problems" thread without looking at the author, hoping it would be an interesting conversation, so I thought I'd start an actually legit conversation about where Roger's at and what might be ahead for him. Some questions to consider: What is "wrong" with Roger? Can he fix it? What do you see for him in 2019? Is this his last year? Etc.

My understanding of game play itself on the court is very limited and I generally like to stick to the historical and statistical side of things, but will share my impressions. Now I watched about half of the match with Tsitsipas and my impression is that he really "should have" won that match. I don't say that easily, as there are many ways to win a match - but he is still the better player. It seemed to me that about 80% of the time he played better, just not in the clutch. His main problem was an inability to convert breakpoints; what was it, 0/12? His serve was good in the first half or so, but wasn't as good later on - but we can also put that on frustration. He was shanking quite a bit and hitting the ball into the net.

So what I saw was a Roger Federer with his basic skill-set intact, but A) an inability to win breakpoints and generally perform in clutch moments, B) a mediocre to poor return of serve, C) a tendency to shank, and D) (the new one) a tendency to hit into the net.

Anything else? He actually looked better than he did last year, although not nearly as good as in 2017. He was a bit closer to his 2014-15 self, in my opinion.

So the question: are those problems that are fixable? I would like to think that at 37 years old and 20 Slams he would be able to perform in the clutch, especially over a 20-year old. On the other hand, if his skills are starting to erode, that can impact confidence and it becomes a kind of snowball effect.

What say you?

I still think Federer will still be a Top 10 player this year barring injury of course. I watched the full match in the morning he actually played decent. The only thing that was horrible was his break point conversion. Yes, his ground game was hit or miss and his return of serve was hit or miss also but at 37 years old that is somewhat expected. At this point of his career, he will need a lot of luck and hopefully he is able to play a little bit better on the return game.

One thing for sure: Never ever count out a legendary player especially a player like Roger Federer.

 

[Moxie]

I made the mistake of clicking on the "Solution to all Federer's Problems" thread without looking at the author, hoping it would be an interesting conversation, so I thought I'd start an actually legit conversation about where Roger's at and what might be ahead for him. Some questions to consider: What is "wrong" with Roger? Can he fix it? What do you see for him in 2019? Is this his last year? Etc.

My understanding of game play itself on the court is very limited and I generally like to stick to the historical and statistical side of things, but will share my impressions. Now I watched about half of the match with Tsitsipas and my impression is that he really "should have" won that match. I don't say that easily, as there are many ways to win a match - but he is still the better player. It seemed to me that about 80% of the time he played better, just not in the clutch. His main problem was an inability to convert breakpoints; what was it, 0/12? His serve was good in the first half or so, but wasn't as good later on - but we can also put that on frustration. He was shanking quite a bit and hitting the ball into the net.

So what I saw was a Roger Federer with his basic skill-set intact, but A) an inability to win breakpoints and generally perform in clutch moments, B) a mediocre to poor return of serve, C) a tendency to shank, and D) (the new one) a tendency to hit into the net.

Anything else? He actually looked better than he did last year, although not nearly as good as in 2017. He was a bit closer to his 2014-15 self, in my opinion.

So the question: are those problems that are fixable? I would like to think that at 37 years old and 20 Slams he would be able to perform in the clutch, especially over a 20-year old. On the other hand, if his skills are starting to erode, that can impact confidence and it becomes a kind of snowball effect.

What say you?

Broken made a very good point about confidence, and how it's affecting his hitting, and of course the loss of movement. That it's all a snowball. I honestly think that Roger is built for longevity, but it's a question if that means "big-titles longevity." I'm sorry to be the sports cliche, but I think it's down to him now. What he wants and what he can still manufacture. I thought he'd never win another Major after 2012. So that's all I know.

 

[DarthFed]

I still think Federer will still be a Top 10 player this year barring injury of course. I watched the full match in the morning he actually played decent. The only thing that was horrible was his break point conversion. Yes, his ground game was hit or miss and his return of serve was hit or miss also but at 37 years old that is somewhat expected. At this point of his career, he will need a lot of luck and hopefully he is able to play a little bit better on the return game.

One thing for sure: Never ever count out a legendary player especially a player like Roger Federer.

Well top 10 right now is cake so I doubt Roger sticks around just to be top 10. There aren't more than 5 guys on tour with any pedigree when you discount Murray and Stan.

He was trash last night, looked similar to 2013. The only things that were up to par was his serve and net game. The ground game, movement and ROS basically were just dismal. He will need to do some soul searching to see if this is really the best he has left or if there is something else physical or mental that can help him get back to a decent level. I do think most of what is going on is mental but obviously there is a physical component to his decline. When he gets deep in a 4th set or even a bit earlier he is probably running on fumes at his age and that is a big disadvantage

 

[DarthFed]

I made the mistake of clicking on the "Solution to all Federer's Problems" thread without looking at the author, hoping it would be an interesting conversation, so I thought I'd start an actually legit conversation about where Roger's at and what might be ahead for him. Some questions to consider: What is "wrong" with Roger? Can he fix it? What do you see for him in 2019? Is this his last year? Etc.

My understanding of game play itself on the court is very limited and I generally like to stick to the historical and statistical side of things, but will share my impressions. Now I watched about half of the match with Tsitsipas and my impression is that he really "should have" won that match. I don't say that easily, as there are many ways to win a match - but he is still the better player. It seemed to me that about 80% of the time he played better, just not in the clutch. His main problem was an inability to convert breakpoints; what was it, 0/12? His serve was good in the first half or so, but wasn't as good later on - but we can also put that on frustration. He was shanking quite a bit and hitting the ball into the net.

So what I saw was a Roger Federer with his basic skill-set intact, but A) an inability to win breakpoints and generally perform in clutch moments, B) a mediocre to poor return of serve, C) a tendency to shank, and D) (the new one) a tendency to hit into the net.

Anything else? He actually looked better than he did last year, although not nearly as good as in 2017. He was a bit closer to his 2014-15 self, in my opinion.

So the question: are those problems that are fixable? I would like to think that at 37 years old and 20 Slams he would be able to perform in the clutch, especially over a 20-year old. On the other hand, if his skills are starting to erode, that can impact confidence and it becomes a kind of snowball effect.

What say you?

I think he may have played better than he did late last season, especially his serve. But that was pretty far off from 2017 and the start of 2018. Pretty far off from 2014 and 2015 too. There was no pace on his ground strokes and his return was obviously really bad.

 

[Nadalfan2013]

The headlines I saw said “Tsitsipas out-federing Federer”. So where can Federer go from there? It’s just human evolution. He’s meeting a younger superior version of himself.

 

[Moxie]

The headlines I saw said “Tsitsipas out-federing Federer”. So where can Federer go from there? It’s just human evolution. He’s meeting a younger superior version of himself.

"Superior version" is a bit over-determined and far yet to be seen. But he did out-Federer him in some ways. He studied the man, he has got a one-hander, and he's not afraid of the net. Also, he smothered him for time. This is why much is being made of it, more than the Anderson loss at Wimbledon, or the Millman upset at USO.

 

[DarthFed]

"Superior version" is a bit over-determined and far yet to be seen. But he did out-Federer him in some ways. He studied the man, he has got a one-hander, and he's not afraid of the net. Also, he smothered him for time. This is why much is being made of it, more than the Anderson loss at Wimbledon, or the Millman upset at USO.

Much is being made of it because it is 3 pathetic majors in a row, that and Tsitsipas obviously has a better future than KA and Milkman.

As for superior, he isn't even superior right now compared to a guy hitting and moving like he had eaten tons of Taco Bell and was carrying a 50 pound load in his pants. Let's wait until Tsitsipas wins something to declare him great.

 

[Moxie]

Much is being made of it because it is 3 pathetic majors in a row, that and Tsitsipas obviously has a better future than KA and Milkman.

As for superior, he isn't even superior right now compared to a guy hitting and moving like he had eaten tons of Taco Bell and was carrying a 50 pound load in his pants. Let's wait until Tsitsipas wins something to declare him great.

Always with the elegant metaphors.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I feel that most of the blame for the loss should be attributed to Fed's mind and lack of confidence, rather than his physical play (which is of course going down as well). His BP conversion ratio has gone to atrocious levels that he had before. His ROS is also bad.

I know one should not write off Fed, especially after a loss to a good player. However, in some sense this was a winnable match and Fed lost it due to not being mentally strong.

I think Fed will not win any GS outside of Wimbledon from now on.

Even in Wimbledon he has chances only this year and next, at the most.

 

[The_Grand_Slam]

If his FH and ROS continues to be at this level the end could be near.

Making routine errors on big points consistently like yesterday was just disheartening.

I think this year his only target should be peaking at Wimbledon.
Forget rankings and every other detail

 

[GameSetAndMath]

When was the last time that Roger lost a GS match without breaking the opponents serve even once?

 

[The_Grand_Slam]

When was the last time that Roger lost a GS match without breaking the opponents serve even once?

RG 2015 QF
Before that in 2002

 

[GameSetAndMath]

RG 2015 QF
Before that in 2002

was that against gulbis?

 

[The_Grand_Slam]

was that against gulbis?

Wawrinka.
Went 0/4 on BPs(Didn't have any BPs in set 2 and 3 in that match)

Before that it happened in 2002 against Max Mirnyi USO R16

 

[britbox]

I made the mistake of clicking on the "Solution to all Federer's Problems" thread without looking at the author, hoping it would be an interesting conversation, so I thought I'd start an actually legit conversation about where Roger's at and what might be ahead for him. Some questions to consider: What is "wrong" with Roger? Can he fix it? What do you see for him in 2019? Is this his last year? Etc.

My understanding of game play itself on the court is very limited and I generally like to stick to the historical and statistical side of things, but will share my impressions. Now I watched about half of the match with Tsitsipas and my impression is that he really "should have" won that match. I don't say that easily, as there are many ways to win a match - but he is still the better player. It seemed to me that about 80% of the time he played better, just not in the clutch. His main problem was an inability to convert breakpoints; what was it, 0/12? His serve was good in the first half or so, but wasn't as good later on - but we can also put that on frustration. He was shanking quite a bit and hitting the ball into the net.

So what I saw was a Roger Federer with his basic skill-set intact, but A) an inability to win breakpoints and generally perform in clutch moments, B) a mediocre to poor return of serve, C) a tendency to shank, and D) (the new one) a tendency to hit into the net.

Anything else? He actually looked better than he did last year, although not nearly as good as in 2017. He was a bit closer to his 2014-15 self, in my opinion.

So the question: are those problems that are fixable? I would like to think that at 37 years old and 20 Slams he would be able to perform in the clutch, especially over a 20-year old. On the other hand, if his skills are starting to erode, that can impact confidence and it becomes a kind of snowball effect.

What say you?

As a Fed fan, I'm contented. Roger cannot defeat father time. His skills have eroded - that forehand isn't the weapon it once was, he still moves well but not as well..., he's not as clutch (many old retired pros have said it was harder at the end in the big moments because they knew the window of opportunity was limited) and he's not as explosive. He has made various changes over the last few years to remain relevant with scheduling, racquet changes, backhand, net game... but there are only so many times you can go back to the well. Once upon a time, it was big news when Roger lost a set.

Federer will always remain relevant until he retires, but he's now human. Not a lot's going to change that at this stage.

 

[El Dude]

As a Fed fan, I'm contented. Roger cannot defeat father time. His skills have eroded - that forehand isn't the weapon it once was, he still moves well but not as well..., he's not as clutch (many old retired pros have said it was harder at the end in the big moments because they knew the window of opportunity was limited) and he's not as explosive. He has made various changes over the last few years to remain relevant with scheduling, racquet changes, backhand, net game... but there are only so many times you can go back to the well. Once upon a time, it was big news when Roger lost a set.

Federer will always remain relevant until he retires, but he's now human. Not a lot's going to change that at this stage.

I like this, britbox, and resonate with your view. I would love to see him win one more, but am OK if he doesn't - partially because, unlike our fellow fedfans Darth and Front, I'm at peace with the idea of someone--even Rafa--surpassing his Slam count. That's not my preference, mind you, but not the end of the world. I think in the end, years from now, Roger-Rafa-Novak will be viewed as the TGOATs (Three Greatest of All Time).

 

[britbox]

I like this, britbox, and resonate with your view. I would love to see him win one more, but am OK if he doesn't - partially because, unlike our fellow fedfans Darth and Front, I'm at peace with the idea of someone--even Rafa--surpassing his Slam count. That's not my preference, mind you, but not the end of the world. I think in the end, years from now, Roger-Rafa-Novak will be viewed as the TGOATs (Three Greatest of All Time).

I'm not quite at peace with Rafa passing him but I'm just thinking this where Fed is right now. He'll always be relevant while he's playing, just that I think expectations need to be a lot more realistic.

 

[lob]

RG 2015 QF
Before that in 2002

Did Roger break RN in Wimbledon 2008? He won sets 3 and 4 in tiebreaks.