US Open 2018, Flushing Meadows, NY USA - Grand Slam (Men)

[DarthFed]

Same like if Federer would have played as great as Stakhovsky, Anderson, Coric or Zverev he’d have won and of course in his best surface

Yes Roger played embarrassingly bad in all his Wimbledon losses save 2014 IMO. Can't always play great but he should've done better at that event. Oh well.

 

[Moxie]

I've mostly kept the PED talk to that thread, you're the one bringing it up often on unrelated threads. Also my discussion this time around hasn't even revolved around Nadal but rather all athletes' general motivation to take something that will make them much better than they otherwise are. You think most promising young athletes have ZERO motivation to take them. I strongly disagree.

No, you have been freely making random digs for ages. And the reason it came up again on this one was you and Front. Obviously, I have no reason to bring it up. (Let's be honest.) But I have told you both, if you bring it up, I will fight you on it. Don't play the innocent on this. That's too cheap for you, even at your nastiest. And where have you been discussing young athletes doping on this thread? You haven't. I've never talked about any "promising young athletes." I have only talked about Rafa, Roger and Novak, and Stan. You keep trying to distract the conversation with generalities, because you don't have specifics. But I've never said anything about other young athletes. That's just you.

 

[Moxie]

Yes Roger played embarrassingly bad in all his Wimbledon losses save 2014 IMO. Can't always play great but he should've done better at that event. Oh well.

Oh, right. That's why the 2008 one is considered a Classic. Get over it. Roger didn't play badly in that one, and he was 26. It was a tight match, and he lost it. I would complain about the 2014 final, though. He was looking good until the last match. Peaked one match too early.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

It is time to take a look at the odds again to see how the draw affected it (and to record the state just before the start of the tournament).
Eighteen folks have a puncher's chance, but there are only three contenders.

1. Novak 5/2 (28.57%)
2. Ralph 3 (25%)
3. Roger 6 (14.29%)
4. Sasha 12 (7.69%)
5. JMDP 16 (5.88%)
6. Cilic 20 (4.76%)
7. Wawrinka 40 (2.44%)
8. Raonic / Anderson / Theseus / Grigor 50 (1.96%)
12. Nick / Thiem / Isner / Murray 66 (1.49%)
16. Goffin / Special K 80 (1.23%)
18. Shapo 100 (1%)

Here are the significant changes from last update and some observations.

a. Rafa's odds have substantially become better from 20% (thanks to cup cake draw).
b. Novak's odds became slightly better and Roger's odds became slightly worse, but not significant changes.
c. Odds for Sasha and JMDP became slightly worse.
d. Odds of Muzza, Raonic, Nick and Samurai plummeted
e. Coric and Chung's odds have became so low that they are not even in the list of folks with puncher's chance.

 

[Moxie]

Again with the 'cupcake draw'. Couldn't have anything to do with the fact that Nadal won it last year. Djokovic manages to get his head above water and everyone thinks he's suddenly going to walk on it. People have very short-term memories.

 

[Front242]

Oh, right. That's why the 2008 one is considered a Classic. Get over it. Roger didn't play badly in that one, and he was 26. It was a tight match, and he lost it. I would complain about the 2014 final, though. He was looking good until the last match. Peaked one match too early.

Didn't play badly? It took him 2.5 sets before he woke up ffs. He was up 4-1 in set 2 if my memory serves me correctly and ended up losing it. 52 unforced errors doesn't define badly either I guess when you try to make Nadal look great.

 

[Front242]

Again with the 'cupcake draw'. Couldn't have anything to do with the fact that Nadal won it last year. Djokovic manages to get his head above water and everyone thinks he's suddenly going to walk on it. People have very short-term memories.

Right, so just because he won it last year with the most pathetic draw most of us have witnessed in decades, he deserves to get something similar again this year. Is that how it goes? Go back and check out the rankings of the guys Nadal beat last year. Prepare for amazement.

 

[DarthFed]

Again with the 'cupcake draw'. Couldn't have anything to do with the fact that Nadal won it last year. Djokovic manages to get his head above water and everyone thinks he's suddenly going to walk on it. People have very short-term memories.

Clearly you don't know how odds work. Nadal getting those odds means that more money came pouring in on him to win the USO after they saw the draw. That's why his odds went up a lot. I'm sure nearly everyone betting on it before and after the draw knows that he won the USO last year.

 

[Moxie]

Right, so just because he won it last year with the most pathetic draw most of us have witnessed in decades, he deserves to get something similar again this year. Is that how it goes? Go back and check out the rankings of the guys Nadal beat last year. Prepare for amazement.

You missed the point, as usual. I was talking about odds. And in case you missed my other post, the top half of the draw was the tough one, which you have forgotten. Roger was in Rafa's draw. There's a difference between one's draw, and how it opens up. The bottom half was the cupcake side, esp. when Murray dropped out. And don't worry, I haven't forgotten about the rankings of everyone Rafa beat. Not like you Feddies haven't hammered it at every opportunity. He'd have played #3, if #3 had made the date. And Del Potro IS currently ranked #3. His ranking last year was still artificially low due to injury, and even you know that.

 

[DarthFed]

Oh, right. That's why the 2008 one is considered a Classic. Get over it. Roger didn't play badly in that one, and he was 26. It was a tight match, and he lost it. I would complain about the 2014 final, though. He was looking good until the last match. Peaked one match too early.

It's considered a classic because it was close, dramatic and had tons at stake. Roger was on a 65 match win streak on grass, playing like ass he was still going to be somewhat tough to beat. He barely did anything right most of that match and lost to a guy without much grass court game. Also it is 2015 where he was great until a terrible performance in the final vs Djokovic.

 

[DarthFed]

No, you have been freely making random digs for ages. And the reason it came up again on this one was you and Front. Obviously, I have no reason to bring it up. (Let's be honest.) But I have told you both, if you bring it up, I will fight you on it. Don't play the innocent on this. That's too cheap for you, even at your nastiest. And where have you been discussing young athletes doping on this thread? You haven't. I've never talked about any "promising young athletes." I have only talked about Rafa, Roger and Novak, and Stan. You keep trying to distract the conversation with generalities, because you don't have specifics. But I've never said anything about other young athletes. That's just you.

Your #1 defense of why Rafa "couldn't have" taken PED's on that thread is that he was always a promising young player and therefore would never have had motivation to take them. After that my posts on that thread were in regards to the general question as to whether even some promising young athletes don't look to become a lot better than they are by taking PED's.

 

[herios]

The Canadian contingent all 4 members will play today. Too bad that 2 of them, Denis and Felix will have to play each other.

 

[britbox]

Wertheim and the crew at Sports Illustrated make their USO predictions...

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<a class="embedly-card" href="https://www.si.com/tennis/2018/08/24/us-open-preview-roundtable-predictions-dark-horses-more">U.S. Open preview: SI experts make predictions</a>
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[Carol]

Right, so just because he won it last year with the most pathetic draw most of us have witnessed in decades, he deserves to get something similar again this year. Is that how it goes? Go back and check out the rankings of the guys Nadal beat last year. Prepare for amazement.

In the USO Nadal beat Delpo who had beaten Federer and in the final he beat Anderson who also has beaten Federer in Wimbledon....nah they are not nothing......B-)
Meanwhile Federer beat Cilic with a horrible blisters in his feet in Wimbledon 2017 and in the AO 2018 a very poor Cilic who can get a few finals but usually to lose

 

[lob]

........
I'd also like to see this forum saved from unrelenting claims about how humanity or even the sport is in danger. It's just effing tennis, and some folks need to get over themselves, as more than a few posters have stated. Here I'm looking at monfed.

That's hyperbole worth ignoring. If you are curious as to where it comes from, I'll let you in on an open secret. With good reason, some of us dread another RN USO. To say that Nadal is opportunistic is an understatement and he is too smart not to sense this opportunity.

Sent from my 6045O using Tapatalk

 

[monfed]

yet another vultured USO coming up for Nadull

 

[britbox]

Sorry to say it, but Federer isn't winning shit at this US Open.

 

[10isfan]

The draw took away all my interest in this tournament. If Djoke has landed in Nadal’s half, I would have watched more of it. However, as it stands, I feel nothing but dread that Fed will be knocked out early and Nadal will reach the final.

 

[Fiero425]

The draw took away all my interest in this tournament. If Djoke has landed in Nadal’s half, I would have watched more of it. However, as it stands, I feel nothing but dread that Fed will be knocked out early and Nadal will reach the final.

You had me until Nadal making the final! I won't even hazard a guess how, but history has told us, this dirt-baller has never defended a title off clay! It's the strangest anomaly known to tennis of a so called GOAT! Too strange for words! :whistle:

 

[10isfan]

Let’s hope the pattern continues, and Nadal doesn’t defend here.