Thoughts about the rest of the year (post Wimbledon)

[El Dude]

First off, congratulations to Novak Djokovic - that was an incredible match, which I watched from start to finish. Roger almost pulled it off but in the end, he couldn't quite do it. Oh yeah, congrats to Jack Sock and Vasek Pospisil for upsetting the Bryan brothers! Wow.

Anyhow, we have quite a lot of season left, with four more Master's tournaments, the US Open, the World Tour Final - not to mention a handful of ATP 500s and 250s.

Some thoughts:

*Novak's win is huge for his confidence and, I think, it isn't a stretch to say that he'll be the player to beat for the remainder of the year, if not longer. At this moment I'd say he's the favorite for the US Open and to finish the year #1.

*Roger has some life left in him, and then some. Unfortunately to have won that match, at least one of two things had to have happened: Novak to fall apart and/or Roger to maintain his ridiculous serving, which dwindled off during the third set (not to mention more errors). But Roger did what a lot of naysayers said he couldn't do, which was remain competitive in a five-set Slam final against one of the elites. I think he's a serious contender for the US Open, perhaps behind only Novak and Rafa, and could very well win a Master's.

*Rafa is a bit of a question remark. I'd expect him to be really hungry at the US Open, but I wouldn't be surprised if the 2014 Wimbledon marks the end of his reign as the #1 player in the sport. His clay court season wasn't quite as potent as in years past and he struggled on grass. Still, Rafa seems to play best from behind, so maybe he'll have a surge this year. I do expect him to remain an elite player for some time yet, but maybe not quite as dominant as he was in his best years.

*Andy is a bit of a mess. I saw him as a big question mark going into Wimbledon but allowed myself to be convinced by those who thought he was back in form. Hopefully he'll gain resolve, but it remains to be seen whether he can get back in the mix among the game's very best.

*I already commented on Grigor Dimitrov in another thread. I don't quite see him winning a Slam yet, but he could play spoiler again and I think could win one as soon as next year.

*I was impressed with Milos Raonic, but think he needs a miracle to win a Slam at this point. He just doesn't have the total game (unlike Dimitrov) to beat one of the Big Four on the big stage. Still, I'm going to tentatively predict that he's going to win a Master's this year.

*A brief note on David Ferrer. I think we're seeing the beginning of the end - his overall performance is down this year, which befits his age. I still think he can remain in the top ten this year, but he's slipped to #7, and to #9 in the Race to London rankings. I could see him falling out of the top 10 next year.

What about you? Thoughts for the rest of the year?

 

[crystalfire]

agree with all of that. dont know what to expect from rafa. djokers confidence should be back and hopefully he'll believe in himself in slam finals. feds still got game to challenge djoker if not rafa which should be enough to hopefully get him another slam. murray seems to going thru slumps.

 

[tennisville]

just bring on the US Open

Also Murray goes to no 10 now , should spice up the draw now

 

[britbox]

Nadal ain't a question mark mate. He's a co-favourite for the US Open along with Djokovic. Don't let the unique surface of Wimbledon suggest otherwise.

 

[Riotbeard]

I think Murray may need to walk before running. A master's title (heck, a title) could do wonders. I would like to see Stan step up and defend his semi run at the USO, and contest that one. He is very likely to still be one of the top four seeds. Hopefully Grigor will take advantage of being a top 8 seed now.

 

[crystalfire]

Nadal ain't a question mark mate. He's a co-favourite for the US Open along with Djokovic. Don't let the unique surface of Wimbledon suggest otherwise.

co-fav? for real? i got to watch him play some hard court tennis before i can say that

 

[Denis]

Nadal ain't a question mark mate. He's a co-favourite for the US Open along with Djokovic. Don't let the unique surface of Wimbledon suggest otherwise.

Not sure. He was suffering defeats on his beloved clay coming into RG. Unless he regroups, I don't think he'll do that well actually.

 

[Riotbeard]

Nadal ain't a question mark mate. He's a co-favourite for the US Open along with Djokovic. Don't let the unique surface of Wimbledon suggest otherwise.

co-fav? for real? i got to watch him play some hard court tennis before i can say that

I agree with this. Rafa has never played great this year, other than about two sets of the FO final. A lot will be learned though in montreal and cinci.

 

[El Dude]

When I say Rafa is a question mark, I'm not saying it is questionable that he'll be in the mix for the championship, but that I'm not sure how he'll finish out the year. Traditionally he tends to end the year poorly. Note, for instance, that he's only won a Masters tournament after Madrid three times in his career (2005, 2008, 2013).

That said, I still see him as the second favorite going into the US Open. I would have called him the favorite before Novak won, but a confident Novak is pretty hard to beat on hard courts.

My US Open seeding would be as follows:
1. Djokovic
2. Nadal
3. Federer
4. Murray
5. Dimitrov
6. Wawrinka
7. Raonic
8. Berdych

 

[britbox]

Nadal ain't a question mark mate. He's a co-favourite for the US Open along with Djokovic. Don't let the unique surface of Wimbledon suggest otherwise.

Not sure. He was suffering defeats on his beloved clay coming into RG. Unless he regroups, I don't think he'll do that well actually.

Write him off at your peril guys ... that's all I'll say on the subject.

 

[calitennis127]

*Novak's win is huge for his confidence and, I think, it isn't a stretch to say that he'll be the player to beat for the remainder of the year, if not longer. At this moment I'd say he's the favorite for the US Open and to finish the year #1.

Agreed. This match should do wonders for Djokovic in terms of his confidence and peace of mind going into the biggest matches throughout the next year. Hopefully there is a carryover to next year's French Open.

*Roger has some life left in him, and then some. Unfortunately to have won that match, at least one of two things had to have happened: Novak to fall apart and/or Roger to maintain his ridiculous serving, which dwindled off during the third set (not to mention more errors). But Roger did what a lot of naysayers said he couldn't do, which was remain competitive in a five-set Slam final against one of the elites. I think he's a serious contender for the US Open, perhaps behind only Novak and Rafa, and could very well win a Master's.

Well, I wouldn't expect you to point out what was most encouraging from Federer in this match (because it would throw a monkey wrench in your age-ism): while Djokovic was the better overall player from the baseline and it was Federer's serving that was key for him throughout the match, the level that Federer displayed from the baseline in the 4th and 5th sets was terrific, particularly in the break-back games of the 4th set. His movement was phenomenal and he started clicking with the running forehand as well as backhands where he took the ball early.

*Rafa is a bit of a question remark. I'd expect him to be really hungry at the US Open, but I wouldn't be surprised if the 2014 Wimbledon marks the end of his reign as the #1 player in the sport.

You just won't let go of this one, will you?

El Dude: you, like so many others (including most of Nadal's fans), misunderstand his success. Nadal never has been the "#1 player in the sport" in terms of level. He has won many of his biggest titles by parasitically sucking the life out of more talented shotmakers and weaseling his way to victories.

Was he a better player than Djokovic when he beat him at the US Open last year? Absolutely not. He was playing outstanding by his own standards, but as Djokovic has said, he (Novak) should have won that match.

His clay court season wasn't quite as potent as in years past and he struggled on grass.

Sir, of what do you speak?

Nadal just stormed through Roland Garros without even contesting a 5-set match as he did in 2013. He won Madrid. He was one set from winning the Rome final, and unlike in 2011, he actually won a set on Djokovic.

Yes Cali, but what about the losses to Ferrer and Almagro? Well, El Dude (and others), Nadal has been far from perfect on clay over the years and has won a great number of close matches and also had his body break down throughout the clay season. Both of Federer's wins over Nadal on clay (2007 Hamburg and 2009 Madrid) came directly as the result of Nadal being very fatigued (in Hamburg because of playing so many matches, and then in 2009 because of the 4-hour match against Djokovic that he only won by a hair). In 2008, Nadal lost early in Rome with blisters, and he was one match away from losing the #2 ranking to Djokovic. Had Djokovic won the Hamburg semifinal, he would have been #2.

Roland Garros showed definitively that what happened in Monte Carlo and Barcelona was nothing that you need to worry about in the big picture.

As far as grass, Nadal was better than Kyrgios from the baseline. Kygrios held his own, but Nadal's movement and forehand were completely clicking. It was Kyrgios's serving that was decisive. Were it not for Nadal's great baseline play, Kyrgios would have won that match much faster.

Still, Rafa seems to play best from behind, so maybe he'll have a surge this year. I do expect him to remain an elite player for some time yet, but maybe not quite as dominant as he was in his best years.

You need to better understand the science of gnat-ology. He will be around, lurking and ready to pounce as soon as Djokovic, Federer, Dimitrov, Murray, Del Potro (when he comes back), etc. slip up.

*Andy is a bit of a mess. I saw him as a big question mark going into Wimbledon but allowed myself to be convinced by those who thought he was back in form. Hopefully he'll gain resolve, but it remains to be seen whether he can get back in the mix among the game's very best.

Personally, I pulled for Murray to win Wimbledon because I knew just how badly he wanted it and how much it meant to his country. That said, I really don't want to see him win any more Majors because I find his playing style to mostly be pretty boring and I don't think he is a very interesting player to watch. He got his first Major, then he got his Wimbledon trophy; anything more is not something I care to see.

*I already commented on Grigor Dimitrov in another thread. I don't quite see him winning a Slam yet, but he could play spoiler again and I think could win one as soon as next year.

Agreed. He is very talented, and the next two years is his time to step up and make it happen.

*I was impressed with Milos Raonic, but think he needs a miracle to win a Slam at this point. He just doesn't have the total game (unlike Dimitrov) to beat one of the Big Four on the big stage. Still, I'm going to tentatively predict that he's going to win a Master's this year.

I think Kyrgios is a much better prospect. Raonic is not very interesting.

*A brief note on David Ferrer. I think we're seeing the beginning of the end - his overall performance is down this year, which befits his age. I still think he can remain in the top ten this year, but he's slipped to #7, and to #9 in the Race to London rankings. I could see him falling out of the top 10 next year.

He did have good results in Monte Carlo, Madrid, and Roland Garros. I wouldn't write him off just yet. Talent-wise, he is more in the 6-10 range as opposed to the 1-5 range anyway.

 

[calitennis127]

Nadal ain't a question mark mate. He's a co-favourite for the US Open along with Djokovic. Don't let the unique surface of Wimbledon suggest otherwise.

Not sure. He was suffering defeats on his beloved clay coming into RG. Unless he regroups, I don't think he'll do that well actually.

Write him off at your peril guys ... that's all I'll say on the subject.

Agreed. He did not play poorly against Kyrgios, and in fact it was his high baseline level that kept him the match. He'll keep being a gnat. He'll be there ready to suck blood out of Djokovic or Federer (or Dimitrov/Murray) if their levels drop.

 

[Riotbeard]

Nadal ain't a question mark mate. He's a co-favourite for the US Open along with Djokovic. Don't let the unique surface of Wimbledon suggest otherwise.

Not sure. He was suffering defeats on his beloved clay coming into RG. Unless he regroups, I don't think he'll do that well actually.

Write him off at your peril guys ... that's all I'll say on the subject.

Agreed. He did not play poorly against Kyrgios, and in fact it was his high baseline level that kept him the match. He'll keep being a gnat. He'll be there ready to suck blood out of Djokovic or Federer (or Dimitrov/Murray) if their levels drop.

I am not writing him off, but I would put him at 2nd favorite in my opinion. He has not constitently produced great stuff this year. He could easily win the USO again this year though, I just give novak a clear although not a huge in terms of momentum in the year, in general.

 

[crystalfire]

Nadal ain't a question mark mate. He's a co-favourite for the US Open along with Djokovic. Don't let the unique surface of Wimbledon suggest otherwise.

Not sure. He was suffering defeats on his beloved clay coming into RG. Unless he regroups, I don't think he'll do that well actually.

Write him off at your peril guys ... that's all I'll say on the subject.

Agreed. He did not play poorly against Kyrgios, and in fact it was his high baseline level that kept him the match. He'll keep being a gnat. He'll be there ready to suck blood out of Djokovic or Federer (or Dimitrov/Murray) if their levels drop.

I am not writing him off, but I would put him at 2nd favorite in my opinion. He has not constitently produced great stuff this year. He could easily win the USO again this year though, I just give novak a clear although not a huge in terms of momentum in the year, in general.

exactly who in their right mind writes of nadal. im just saying historically he underachieves near the end of the year. if he wins either montreal or cincy and goes deep in the other than yea sure ill say hes the co fav or even fav. but it also depends on how djokovic does.

 

[Kieran]

Rafa won't defend all his HC points, not even close, but I hope he prioritises the US Open and doesn't sweat the rest. He can finish the year strongly by aiming for the WTF, then gear up for Oz.

The rest of it's irrelevant, if he can take two of those three...

 

[calitennis127]

Rafa won't defend all his HC points, not even close, but I hope he prioritises the US Open and doesn't sweat the rest. He can finish the year strongly by aiming for the WTF, then gear up for Oz.

The rest of it's irrelevant, if he can take two of those three...

Well, he has a resuscitated Djokovic and a revived Federer as well as a rising Dimitrov to deal with now.

Djokovic, in particular, will be very tough to deal with after the confidence gained from this win.

 

[Kieran]

Djoker? Yes!

Federer? :Lolz:

Dimi? :nono

 

[calitennis127]

Djoker? Yes!

Federer? :Lolz:

Dimi? :nono

The way Dimitrov played against Murray and Djokovic is very encouraging, and he was the better player for the first 3 sets in his quarterfinal match against Nadal at the Australian Open. He just missed those two gimme putaway forehands on set point to take the 3rd.

And Federer would make a strong stand against Nadal at the US Open, I am confident of that.

 

[Kieran]

Brother, if Rafa faces Federer in the US Open, I'll be happy. Especially if it's the final.

Murray needs to react. He's in an actual crisis. Maybe he should kidnap Lendl, threaten him or pay him more.

Novak is always a threat so nothing changed.

Dimi is a good younger player - but he's 23, not 17, so he faces his own pressures to kick the door down and make an entrance. All this sitting in the waiting room until the others have died is not good. I think he'll do well, but he needs to move faster now. Should be exciting watching that pan out.

Likewise the other youngster who made a better impression on me: Kyrgios. I don't expect anything else from him this year, but he's got the mentality to go with the game, it seems. Let's wait and see.

Unfortunately, the last young player to "break through" here was cruelly exposed in the semis...

 

[crystalfire]

Djoker? Yes!

Federer? :Lolz:

Dimi? :nono

umm that was the best i have seen fed play in a good while against djokovic nonetheless. dont know what you are laughing about. i agree that he might still lose to rafa but if he plays like that hes got more than a chance especially on hards.