This is the beginning of The Decline

[Mile]

He was to be at peak for US Open, but he did it on 2 masters earlier. Djoker lost 2 masters, but was at top level for US Open. That's all, tactical.

Keeping high level at end of the year, for more than a month was a bridge to far for Pa. Backbone cant get so straight anymore. That was his last stand against Djoker. Pa can be sharp at 2 setters, but Grands slams become too exhausting now.

 

[Luxilon Borg]

LOL. I thought the same thing. But it does have merit. Federer's loss last night was odd.

Bingo. He could not get passed 2nd gear. An extremely rare occuremce.

I hope Lux is just being facetious. One poor tournament does not signal the end. Roger is having a nice long leisurely sail into his sunset years.

Let's give it a few more months before all the lemmings go running for the cliffs.

Guys, let's be clear..this is NOT the end. He is playing all the way through the 2016 Olympics and beyond.

It is the beginning of the DECLINE. Big difference.

For the first time, to me, he looked like a 34 year old tennis player.

 

[Riotbeard]

Bingo. He could not get passed 2nd gear. An extremely rare occuremce.

I hope Lux is just being facetious. One poor tournament does not signal the end. Roger is having a nice long leisurely sail into his sunset years.

Let's give it a few more months before all the lemmings go running for the cliffs.

Guys, let's be clear..this is NOT the end. He is playing all the way through the 2016 Olympics and beyond.

It is the beginning of the DECLINE. Big difference.

For the first time, to me, he looked like a 34 year old tennis player.

I thought during most of 2013, he looked like a 34 year old tennis player

 

[Luxilon Borg]

Poor Rog. People forget he has 4 kids. He probably spends most of the day cooking for their persnickety palettes, changing diapers, giving them tennis instruction, helping with homework (hey, nursery school isn't all naps & graham crackers), while Mirka's sitting on her butt, eating bon-bons, watching Oprah, sticking pins in Stan Wawrinka dolls. He's probably exhausted before he hits the court.

Ouch!!!uzzled

 

[DarthFed]

I hope Lux is just being facetious. One poor tournament does not signal the end. Roger is having a nice long leisurely sail into his sunset years.

Let's give it a few more months before all the lemmings go running for the cliffs.

Guys, let's be clear..this is NOT the end. He is playing all the way through the 2016 Olympics and beyond.

It is the beginning of the DECLINE. Big difference.

For the first time, to me, he looked like a 34 year old tennis player.

I thought during most of 2013, he looked like a 34 year old tennis player

"Only" 34? He looked a lot older that year. That said I've gone through my personal memory bank and given the opponent and surface this is the worst loss (quality wise not importance) I can remember since Rog became Rog. He beat this guy 1,1, and 1 at Wimbledon the only other time they played.

 

[Luxilon Borg]

Guys, let's be clear..this is NOT the end. He is playing all the way through the 2016 Olympics and beyond.

It is the beginning of the DECLINE. Big difference.

For the first time, to me, he looked like a 34 year old tennis player.

I thought during most of 2013, he looked like a 34 year old tennis player

"Only" 34? He looked a lot older that year. That said I've gone through my personal memory bank and given the opponent and surface this is the worst loss (quality wise not importance) I can remember since Rog became Rog. He beat this guy 1,1, and 1 at Wimbledon the only other time they played.

yes, hence my post.

 

[DarthFed]

I thought during most of 2013, he looked like a 34 year old tennis player

"Only" 34? He looked a lot older that year. That said I've gone through my personal memory bank and given the opponent and surface this is the worst loss (quality wise not importance) I can remember since Rog became Rog. He beat this guy 1,1, and 1 at Wimbledon the only other time they played.

yes, hence my post.

Too early to panic. I just think there is a bit of hangover after the disappointment of getting so close to another slam. He's rebounded from very bad losses many times before, even just look at 2008, he lost to Simon, Karlovic and Blake right before winning the USO that year

 

[Luxilon Borg]

"Only" 34? He looked a lot older that year. That said I've gone through my personal memory bank and given the opponent and surface this is the worst loss (quality wise not importance) I can remember since Rog became Rog. He beat this guy 1,1, and 1 at Wimbledon the only other time they played.

yes, hence my post.

Too early to panic. I just think there is a bit of hangover after the disappointment of getting so close to another slam. He's rebounded from very bad losses many times before, even just look at 2008, he lost to Simon, Karlovic and Blake right before winning the USO that year

Oh I am not panicking. Nor should anyone else. I am clearly stating my opinion that this the point where you will start to see a gradual decline. It will be noticeable.

Maybe someone can remind me the last time Rog lost in the first round of a Masters with suitable rest?

 

[Front242]

Poor Rog. People forget he has 4 kids. He probably spends most of the day cooking for their persnickety palettes, changing diapers, giving them tennis instruction, helping with homework (hey, nursery school isn't all naps & graham crackers), while Mirka's sitting on her butt, eating bon-bons, watching Oprah, sticking pins in Stan Wawrinka dolls. He's probably exhausted before he hits the court.

Don't forget the last but not the least : he has to stand his awful wife !!

I know you hate that he's won 17 slams but a large part of the reason he is who he is and how great he is, is Mirka. She's been his biggest support since they met. So I guess that's why you would find her awful. Make sense.

 

[Front242]

Btw, the decline has been in effect for years. He had the same problem here last year, got through a tough match and won the whole thing. Also, the courts are getting slower and slower each year. He was playing a guy already used to the conditions as he'd played 2 qualifying matches. Roger was coming from a few weeks off to a new and slower than favourable surface for his game. Less than ideal all round. And also, though I didn't watch it, I read Ramos played very well and all credit to him. Time off since the USO playing against a confident guy on a slower surface. That's not decline, that's just reality. I take 3 weeks off the gym, I'll be weak as $h1t. Same thing and nothing unusual there.

In Roger's own words, this year he wasn't as lucky. In no way do I expect a major decline from 1 loss. It's insane logic and thinking. He's 2nd favourite after Novak for the WTF so that must mean a massive decline alright. :cover Imagine how stupid this thread will look if he actually wins the WTF.

 

[herios]

If he wins Basel, all is good.

 

[DarthFed]

yes, hence my post.

Too early to panic. I just think there is a bit of hangover after the disappointment of getting so close to another slam. He's rebounded from very bad losses many times before, even just look at 2008, he lost to Simon, Karlovic and Blake right before winning the USO that year

Oh I am not panicking. Nor should anyone else. I am clearly stating my opinion that this the point where you will start to see a gradual decline. It will be noticeable.

Maybe someone can remind me the last time Rog lost in the first round of a Masters with suitable rest?

Well I too think he is done overall. I expected a big 2015 out of him, mainly a Wimbledon title, but was wrong. But the man has surprised everyone before so you can't totally count him out from coming up big at a slam.

I don't think 2016 will look like 2013 though it is possible. Rather it will just be worse than the past couple years which is to be expected. And if he plays on after that...more of the same

 

[Luxilon Borg]

Too early to panic. I just think there is a bit of hangover after the disappointment of getting so close to another slam. He's rebounded from very bad losses many times before, even just look at 2008, he lost to Simon, Karlovic and Blake right before winning the USO that year

Oh I am not panicking. Nor should anyone else. I am clearly stating my opinion that this the point where you will start to see a gradual decline. It will be noticeable.

Maybe someone can remind me the last time Rog lost in the first round of a Masters with suitable rest?

Well I too think he is done overall. I expected a big 2015 out of him, mainly a Wimbledon title, but was wrong. But the man has surprised everyone before so you can't totally count him out from coming up big at a slam.

I don't think 2016 will look like 2013 though it is possible. Rather it will just be worse than the past couple years which is to be expected. And if he plays on after that...more of the same

I have no doubts he will have a few stunning victories here and there and play some matches that start the whole "he can win another slam" thing, but when he gets broken at 3 all in the third in a Masters in the first round, looking slow as molasses and stuck in 2nd gear, it is an eye opener.

The fact is his level dropped dramatically from the US Open Qtrs and Semis to the Final. But Nole certainly had a part in that.

 

[DarthFed]

The US Open final was a classic 80-20 match. Roger played well 80+ % of the match but the 20% were the big points and that's what did him in. Wimbledon final was pure ugliness. Couldn't expect a performance like the semis but that was some of the worst tennis he's ever played on grass. Add the disappointments together and it's tough to picture him winning another slam.

 

[Luxilon Borg]

The US Open final was a classic 80-20 match. Roger played well 80+ % of the match but the 20% were the big points and that's what did him in. Wimbledon final was pure ugliness. Couldn't expect a performance like the semis but that was some of the worst tennis he's ever played on grass. Add the disappointments together and it's tough to picture him winning another slam.

agree..but..what if in both those matches he did not have to play Nole? We would be calling him, to quote Steely Dan, "Hey Nineteen".

 

[DarthFed]

^ I'm not so sure. Nole is obviously a huge hurdle but Roger's "finals pressure" could be a factor vs. anyone.

 

[Luxilon Borg]

^ I'm not so sure. Nole is obviously a huge hurdle but Roger's "finals pressure" could be a factor vs. anyone.

I honestly don't think his final losses had anything to do with pressure. He just got smothered. Nole put up a, ahem, Chinese Wall, and just shrunk the court.

I can't possibly see him losing a slam final to Berydch, Ferrer, Stan, Raonic, et al. Nadal would still be tough.

Maybe Murray could rise to the occasion. Maybe.

 

[Haelfix]

The beginning of his decline was either 2008 or 2010 depending on your POV. 2015 is just another step down. The end of his decline figures to be when he retires...

This

I'd say even midpoint 2007. His level was already dropping before the mono bout (where he definitely lost half a step). Some of it was tactics choices to play well on clay, but he was never the same hardcourt/grass court player again.

I'd say there was a second slight drop in 2010, and another one in 2013 (followed by a return to the 2010 level this year).

These things are rarely a straight line. Rafa's career level for instance is all over the place.

 

[El Dude]

As I said in the Shanghai thread, I think his motivation dipped a bit after the US Open - that must be really demoralizing. Roger will remain an elite player as long as he can find that motivation. He doesn't have anything to prove, so to go out there week after week and train and perform at the level he needs to must be difficult.

As for "the decline," others have already said it but it should be re-emphasized. "The decline" started years ago. He absolute peak was 2006. 2007 was a fraction of a step down (compare win-loss %, although he did just as well at Slams). 2008 was marred by mono and Rafa's rise and even though he returned to #1 in 2009 he wasn't quite as good as he had been a couple years prior, plus Rafa, Novak, and Andy had all risen to elite level. All factors taken into account, I think "the decline" really became noticeable in 2010.

I think he'll prepare for 2016 like has any other year, but with even greater determination and a sense of urgency. I'm not sure how this will impact his play. Roger does best when he's come and cool, not when he's stressed and pressed. If he can maintain his Zen-like demeanor, he will remain a challenger at most Slams.

As of this writing, it would be hard for him to win the Australian Open or French Open - there are half a dozen or so players that are favored over him at either tournament. But if he's in similar form next summer, only Novak is the clear favorite over him at Wimbledon or the US Open, or the Olympics for that matter.

2016 is a huge year for both Roger and Rafa. If Rafa can't find his dominant clay form, and if Roger goes another Slamless season, I wouldn't be surprised to see both hang up their racquets.

 

[Luxilon Borg]

As I said in the Shanghai thread, I think his motivation dipped a bit after the US Open - that must be really demoralizing. Roger will remain an elite player as long as he can find that motivation. He doesn't have anything to prove, so to go out there week after week and train and perform at the level he needs to must be difficult.

As for "the decline," others have already said it but it should be re-emphasized. "The decline" started years ago. He absolute peak was 2006. 2007 was a fraction of a step down (compare win-loss %, although he did just as well at Slams). 2008 was marred by mono and Rafa's rise and even though he returned to #1 in 2009 he wasn't quite as good as he had been a couple years prior, plus Rafa, Novak, and Andy had all risen to elite level. All factors taken into account, I think "the decline" really became noticeable in 2010.

I think he'll prepare for 2016 like has any other year, but with even greater determination and a sense of urgency. I'm not sure how this will impact his play. Roger does best when he's come and cool, not when he's stressed and pressed. If he can maintain his Zen-like demeanor, he will remain a challenger at most Slams.

As of this writing, it would be hard for him to win the Australian Open or French Open - there are half a dozen or so players that are favored over him at either tournament. But if he's in similar form next summer, only Novak is the clear favorite over him at Wimbledon or the US Open, or the Olympics for that matter.

2016 is a huge year for both Roger and Rafa. If Rafa can't find his dominant clay form, and if Roger goes another Slamless season, I wouldn't be surprised to see both hang up their racquets.

Good post.

But what complicates things is that there was chatter, loads of it, that Federer was quicker, stronger, and more penetrating than in his glory years.

I don't believe, as others are suggesting, that is "decline" began in2007/2008. The competition improved dramatically from 2008-2011. Because Rafa, Murray, and Nole all had far more flaws in their game at the onset, they had much more room for improvement.