- Joined
- Apr 14, 2013
- Messages
- 10,333
- Reactions
- 6,104
- Points
- 113
Interesting take, lob. I think you make some great points about homogeneity, which I wouldn't want to lose sight of. But I think there is simply a real lack of elite talent in birth years 1989-94. Consider the best players, from 1988 - 1995.
1988 - del Potro, Cilic, Gulbis, Dolgopolov, Bautista Agut
1989 - Nishikori, Klizan, Paire, Sousa, Johnson
1990 - Raonic, Goffin, Delbonis, Pospisil, Janowicz
1991 - Dimitrov, Carreno Busta, Kuznetsov
1992 - Tomic, Sock, Schwartzman, Kudla, Dzumhur
1993 - Thiem, Vesely, Daniel, Fratangelo
1994 - Pouille, Thompson, Coppejans
1995 - Kyrgios, Edmund, Nishioka
1996 - Coric, Chung, Kokkinakis, Khachanov, Donaldson, E Ymer, Halys
1997 - Zverev, Fritz, Rublev, Paul
1998 - Tiafoe, Kozlov, Lee, Mmoh, M Ymer
As I see it, there's just a real lack of talent there, but things start getting interesting in 1995 with Kyrgios, a bit more in '96, and then even more so in 1997.
The situation is somewhat similar to the late 60s, when 30-somethings Laver and Rosewall were still dominating, with no talented players born 1939-42. You have to get to '43 (Arthur Ashe) and '44 (John Newcombe) to find really good players.
Talent comes in waves, and smaller waves are lost in larger waves. We're seeing one of the largest waves (Nadal, Djokovic, Murray) dominating a very weak one (Nishikori, Raonic, Dimitrov, etc). But even if the next wave (Kyrgios, Coric, Zverev, Fritz, etc) isn't a large one, it will be rising as the larger wave is receding, so we'll see more competitive play in another year or two.
So its a combination of both: court and tour conditions (homogeneity, top-heaviness, etc), and talent levels. But things will change - it is inevitable.
1988 - del Potro, Cilic, Gulbis, Dolgopolov, Bautista Agut
1989 - Nishikori, Klizan, Paire, Sousa, Johnson
1990 - Raonic, Goffin, Delbonis, Pospisil, Janowicz
1991 - Dimitrov, Carreno Busta, Kuznetsov
1992 - Tomic, Sock, Schwartzman, Kudla, Dzumhur
1993 - Thiem, Vesely, Daniel, Fratangelo
1994 - Pouille, Thompson, Coppejans
1995 - Kyrgios, Edmund, Nishioka
1996 - Coric, Chung, Kokkinakis, Khachanov, Donaldson, E Ymer, Halys
1997 - Zverev, Fritz, Rublev, Paul
1998 - Tiafoe, Kozlov, Lee, Mmoh, M Ymer
As I see it, there's just a real lack of talent there, but things start getting interesting in 1995 with Kyrgios, a bit more in '96, and then even more so in 1997.
The situation is somewhat similar to the late 60s, when 30-somethings Laver and Rosewall were still dominating, with no talented players born 1939-42. You have to get to '43 (Arthur Ashe) and '44 (John Newcombe) to find really good players.
Talent comes in waves, and smaller waves are lost in larger waves. We're seeing one of the largest waves (Nadal, Djokovic, Murray) dominating a very weak one (Nishikori, Raonic, Dimitrov, etc). But even if the next wave (Kyrgios, Coric, Zverev, Fritz, etc) isn't a large one, it will be rising as the larger wave is receding, so we'll see more competitive play in another year or two.
So its a combination of both: court and tour conditions (homogeneity, top-heaviness, etc), and talent levels. But things will change - it is inevitable.
