The Stupid Thoughtless Thread

[BalaryKar]

My first here: How to predict the winner of Wimby 13?
Madrid 09 Winner = Fed; Wimby 09 Winner = Fed.
Madrid 10 Winner = Nad; Wimby 10 WInner = Nad.
Madrid 11 Winner = Nole; Wimby 11 Winner = Nole.
Madrid 12 Winner = Fed; Wimby 12 Winner = Fed.
Madrid 13 Winner = Nad; Wimby 13 Winner = Nad.

 

[Moxie]

That is a really weird statistic! So funny that you noticed. But I'll take it!

I can't really think why the outcome of Madrid had any bearing on Wimbledon. Each year was different: 09, Nadal was out of the picture; 10 was a big year for Nadal; 11 was a big year for Djokovic; 12 - well, Madrid suits Federer, and so does Wimbledon. This year? I would love for the trend to hold, but I can't imagine why Nadal's win in Madrid would be a better indicator of a win at Wimbledon than his win at RG.

 

[Johnsteinbeck]

funny indeed. i actually think it makes some sense regarding how Madrid (blue or not) plays - most of the time, it's often just as slippery and fast as first week grass (and since it's 2/3, you need to be as sharp as you need to be for first week grass), but it's still a dirt surface, which Wimby is as well by the time the big ones meet.

so congratulations, Rafa!

 

[tented]

My first here: How to predict the winner of Wimby 13?
Madrid 09 Winner = Fed; Wimby 09 Winner = Fed.
Madrid 10 Winner = Nad; Wimby 10 WInner = Nad.
Madrid 11 Winner = Nole; Wimby 11 Winner = Nole.
Madrid 12 Winner = Fed; Wimby 12 Winner = Fed.
Madrid 13 Winner = Nad; Wimby 13 Winner = Nad.

Prior to Madrid becoming one of the clay Masters, it was Hamburg. Guess who won Hamburg in 07? Federer. Guess who won Wimbledon in 07? Federer. Who won Hamburg in 08? Nadal. Who won ... well, we know the rest.

 

[J-B]

My first here: How to predict the winner of Wimby 13?
Madrid 09 Winner = Fed; Wimby 09 Winner = Fed.
Madrid 10 Winner = Nad; Wimby 10 WInner = Nad.
Madrid 11 Winner = Nole; Wimby 11 Winner = Nole.
Madrid 12 Winner = Fed; Wimby 12 Winner = Fed.
Madrid 13 Winner = Nad; Wimby 13 Winner = Nad.

Prior to Madrid becoming one of the clay Masters, it was Hamburg. Guess who won Hamburg in 07? Federer. Guess who won Wimbledon in 07? Federer. Who won Hamburg in 08? Nadal. Who won ... well, we know the rest.

This is really uncanny, guess who won Hamburg in 06? Tommy Robredo. Guess who won wimbledon '06? Tommy Ro...ah no sorry, Roger won.

 

[tented]

My first here: How to predict the winner of Wimby 13?
Madrid 09 Winner = Fed; Wimby 09 Winner = Fed.
Madrid 10 Winner = Nad; Wimby 10 WInner = Nad.
Madrid 11 Winner = Nole; Wimby 11 Winner = Nole.
Madrid 12 Winner = Fed; Wimby 12 Winner = Fed.
Madrid 13 Winner = Nad; Wimby 13 Winner = Nad.

Prior to Madrid becoming one of the clay Masters, it was Hamburg. Guess who won Hamburg in 07? Federer. Guess who won Wimbledon in 07? Federer. Who won Hamburg in 08? Nadal. Who won ... well, we know the rest.

This is really uncanny, guess who won Hamburg in 06? Tommy Robredo. Guess who won wimbledon '06? Tommy Ro...ah no sorry, Roger won.

Tommy was injured. Roger got lucky.

 

[coban]

My first here: How to predict the winner of Wimby 13?
Madrid 09 Winner = Fed; Wimby 09 Winner = Fed.
Madrid 10 Winner = Nad; Wimby 10 WInner = Nad.
Madrid 11 Winner = Nole; Wimby 11 Winner = Nole.
Madrid 12 Winner = Fed; Wimby 12 Winner = Fed.
Madrid 13 Winner = Nad; Wimby 13 Winner = Nad.

Prior to Madrid becoming one of the clay Masters, it was Hamburg. Guess who won Hamburg in 07? Federer. Guess who won Wimbledon in 07? Federer. Who won Hamburg in 08? Nadal. Who won ... well, we know the rest.

This is really uncanny, guess who won Hamburg in 06? Tommy Robredo. Guess who won wimbledon '06? Tommy Ro...ah no sorry, Roger won.

Tommy was injured. Roger got lucky.

Stats dont lie..

 

[El Dude]

But what about 2008 and before?

 

[herios]

My first here: How to predict the winner of Wimby 13?
Madrid 09 Winner = Fed; Wimby 09 Winner = Fed.
Madrid 10 Winner = Nad; Wimby 10 WInner = Nad.
Madrid 11 Winner = Nole; Wimby 11 Winner = Nole.
Madrid 12 Winner = Fed; Wimby 12 Winner = Fed.
Madrid 13 Winner = Nad; Wimby 13 Winner = Nad.

There is a caveat to this, at all instances the eventual winner was seeded in the top 3. Rafa will get seeded 5 at Wimbledon, I have doubts he can win this time, as he will have at least 2 if not 3 potentially tough opponents.

 

[Johnsteinbeck]

^ potentially tough opponents is relative, no? and you never know if the draws hold up. Rafa could still draw Ferrer in the quarters, then meet Berdy/whoever in the semis.

of course, there's more caveats than this one. i think it's mostly a sign of the dominant phases we went through; after all, in all of these years, the relevant double winner did pretty well elsewhere as well. on top of that, i honestly think that another relevant factor in this oddity is the surface used in Madrid

 

[Kieran]

Rafa will get seeded 5 at Wimbledon

Well, Wimbledon has its own system of seeding, so they may move Rafa up to #4...

 

[brokenshoelace]

Rafa will get seeded 5 at Wimbledon

Well, Wimbledon has its own system of seeding, so they may move Rafa up to #4...

It's not that arbitrary. There's a criteria. I don't think Nadal has amassed enough points (under their criteria) to get the number 4 seeding.

 

[Kieran]

Rafa will get seeded 5 at Wimbledon

Well, Wimbledon has its own system of seeding, so they may move Rafa up to #4...

It's not that arbitrary. There's a criteria. I don't think Nadal has amassed enough points (under their criteria) to get the number 4 seeding.

Here it is:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Championships,_Wimbledon#Players_and_seeding

The seeding order is determined using the formula: ATP Entry System Position points + 100% points earned for all grass court tournaments in the past 12 months + 75% points earned for the best grass court tournament in the 12 months before that.

Might need El Nate Silver-Dude to sort this one out! :idea:

 

[herios]

Rafa will get seeded 5 at Wimbledon

Well, Wimbledon has its own system of seeding, so they may move Rafa up to #4...

I did the math Buddy, upfront, yesterday.
Rafa will be seeded 5th.
Both Roger and Rafa get more bonus points than Andy or David, respectively, but not enough to move them up.

 

[Kieran]

Great stuff. Can you post the calculations?

By the way, this would only be a problem if he makes the quarters, and if he does - it won't be his problem...

 

[Johnsteinbeck]

^ the system doubles the current grass points, and then adds another 75% per cent of the highest grass result previous to the ones currently held. so since the '12 bonus is 100%, Rafa outdoing Ferru in '11 won't help (enough).

 

[Kieran]

He can't shake off Ferrer, eh? That's fair enough, Daveed has been great for the last year and more. I hope they get drawn to face each other in the quarters...

 

[reddy]

Shouldn't Nadal fans be wishing that he draws Djokovic in the QF?

If Nadal defeats Djokovic in the QF and goes on to win the final, that will result in a massive point swing of 2795 in Nadal's favor.

 

[herios]

Great stuff. Can you post the calculations?

By the way, this would only be a problem if he makes the quarters, and if he does - it won't be his problem...

Sure;

David bonus points 100% for 2012 (360 Wim + 250 Hert) + 2011 75% ( 180 at Wim) = 745 bonus points.

Rafa 100 % (45 Halle + 45 Wim) + 2011 75% (1200 Wim + 45 Queens) = 1023.75

1023.75-745 = 278.75 more bonus points for Rafa, but the gap right now in rankings is 325 points
David has 7220
Rafa has 6895

I hope is clear now.

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He can't shake off Ferrer, eh? That's fair enough, Daveed has been great for the last year and more. I hope they get drawn to face each other in the quarters...

I think Rosol is ready again

 

[Kieran]

Shouldn't Nadal fans be wishing that he draws Djokovic in the QF?

If Nadal defeats Djokovic in the QF and goes on to win the final, that will result in a massive point swing of 2795 in Nadal's favor.

I don't care where he draws Djoker, or Roger, or Murray, or anyone else. If Rafa makes week 2, then the worry will be theirs...

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Thanks for that, herios!