GameSetAndMath
The GOAT
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The Reign of Novak is Over
- Thread starter El Dude
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El Dude said:
What about 2011? He won 43 in a row to start the year and 3 of 4 slams. Then he sunk down a bit in 2012. It's not like he hasn't rebounded before.
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lindsey, we have to take into account age and the context of play. Novak reached his peak form in 2011 at age 23-24, then dropped a bit for a few years in a high plateau in which he was "first among equals," aside from 2013, from 2012-14 (actually, it was really only the first half of 2013 that Rafa was ahead of him). Then he surged in 2015, at age 27-28. This was partially due to him consistently finding a high level of play, but also because 2015 was a pretty weak year for the tour: Andy and Rafa struggled, and Roger played well but clearly wasn't what he was, and the younger generation had never really risen to challenge.
Novak is turning 30 years old in less than two months. He is young enough that I think he can return to an elite level, but I highly doubt to an utterly dominant form like he was in 2011 or 2015. I think the best case scenario is something similar to 2012-14. In fact, I would be surprised if he didn't win at least a couple more Slams and continue to be among the very best players in the sport for two or three more years. But there are signs for concern.
As I see it, there are three factors that are working against him. One, his mentality - I'm not sure how into it he is. Maybe it is just bravado, but he also could have lost the drive to win.
Secondly, his movement. I'm wondering if he has lost a hair of movement, which is impacting him. I haven't watched him enough to really say, but he might be a tad slower and less able to retrieve everything (maybe someone who has watched him a lot this year can comment).
Finally, the young players. Kyrgios and Zverev will only get better. I think that, along with Raonic, Nishikori, Dimitrov, and Thiem, they form a strong new "second tier" of players - and in a year or two, not only will Kyrgios and Zverev become first tier, or elite players, but more young players will rise to expand the second tier into a rather deep pool of players.
I suppose we can add a fourth element, which is his peers, the Big Four. If Roger maintains his current level he's going to be very hard to beat for the rest of the year. Rafa is looking to surge during clay season, and Andy should return to form.
Combine all of these factors and I think the sentiment that his reign--that is, rulership as "king" of tennis--is over, looks even truer now than when I wrote the original post a couple months ago.
Novak is turning 30 years old in less than two months. He is young enough that I think he can return to an elite level, but I highly doubt to an utterly dominant form like he was in 2011 or 2015. I think the best case scenario is something similar to 2012-14. In fact, I would be surprised if he didn't win at least a couple more Slams and continue to be among the very best players in the sport for two or three more years. But there are signs for concern.
As I see it, there are three factors that are working against him. One, his mentality - I'm not sure how into it he is. Maybe it is just bravado, but he also could have lost the drive to win.
Secondly, his movement. I'm wondering if he has lost a hair of movement, which is impacting him. I haven't watched him enough to really say, but he might be a tad slower and less able to retrieve everything (maybe someone who has watched him a lot this year can comment).
Finally, the young players. Kyrgios and Zverev will only get better. I think that, along with Raonic, Nishikori, Dimitrov, and Thiem, they form a strong new "second tier" of players - and in a year or two, not only will Kyrgios and Zverev become first tier, or elite players, but more young players will rise to expand the second tier into a rather deep pool of players.
I suppose we can add a fourth element, which is his peers, the Big Four. If Roger maintains his current level he's going to be very hard to beat for the rest of the year. Rafa is looking to surge during clay season, and Andy should return to form.
Combine all of these factors and I think the sentiment that his reign--that is, rulership as "king" of tennis--is over, looks even truer now than when I wrote the original post a couple months ago.
El Dude said:
Reading this 2 months later I can't help but :laydownlaughing... Now look where they are - both out with elbow injuries and Murray's got a crapload of points to defend - 11,020 to be exact. Anybody see Murray successfully defending ALL of these points? Because I sure as heck don't. Monte Carlo is in 2 weeks...
Monte Carlo - 360
Madrid - 600
Rome - 1,000
French Open - 1,200
Queen's Club - 500
Wimbledon - 2,000
Cincinnati - 600
US Open - 360
Beijing - 500
Shanghai - 1,000
Vienna - 500
Paris - 1,000
ATP Finals - 1,500
On the whole, this entire thread is making me laugh. Gotta toot my own horn though. When I started posting on this board a few years ago one of my comments was on the subject of Tipsarevic saying Nole's goal was to surpass Roger's 302 weeks at #1. I said that in the not too distant future Djokovic, who plays a very physical game the same as Nadal, would find himself in the same situation Nadal was in - struggling to find his game.
http://www.tennisfrontier.com/forum/showthread.php?tid=3732&pid=172163#pid172163
It's nice to have big goals and if players don't dream big then they'll never get anywhere, but as a regular schmoe I'm a realist - Nole's probably not even going to pass Connors. Eventually some young gun is going to knock him off the #1 spot just like it's happened every other #1 player. Everybody gets old. It's a fact of life. And playing the way he does - 3-6 hour matches? Unless he finds a B and C game plan and cuts his match time in half - he'll be Nadal in a year's time and lucky to last until he's 30.
That comment is from April 2015. Nole imploded right after he won the French Open in early June 2016. So just over a year later what I predicted came to pass. You simply cannot play 2 or 3 3-6 hour matches every major tournament and NOT have it come back to bite you in the butt as you age. Federer's game isn't really considered to be all that taxing on the body and yet he's only won 2 Slams after turning 30. Of course he had a ton of competition From Nadal and Djokovic - but Djokovic hasn't had that added pressure or 2 other hungry elite players breathing down his aging neck. All he's had to deal with the last 3 years is...well...an even older Federer and perennial Mr. Comes Up Short Every Time - Andy Murray. No Nadal. No fast-rising young bucks on the block. Just Murray and Federer with the big 3-0 looming in the distance. And here we are today - Nole seemingly on the decline and out with tennis elbow.
I fully expect Nole will be back at the top and even win another Slam or two. But hopefully with the tennis experts seeing what Roger is doing at 35 - they'll end this ridic GOAT discussion and give him his due. It took him from 2010 AO to the 2012 Wimbledon to get #17. It then took him from Wimbledon 2012 to AO 2017 to get #18. Sasha Zverev looks like he really wants to be #1. Kyrgios has the talent if not the discipline to be #1. Playing the way he does - grinding, defending and retrieving - where does that leave Nole heading into his 30th year - and Nadal heading into his 31st year? It only gets harder to win Slams from here on. Just ask Roger.
http://www.tennisfrontier.com/forum/showthread.php?tid=3732&pid=172163#pid172163
It's nice to have big goals and if players don't dream big then they'll never get anywhere, but as a regular schmoe I'm a realist - Nole's probably not even going to pass Connors. Eventually some young gun is going to knock him off the #1 spot just like it's happened every other #1 player. Everybody gets old. It's a fact of life. And playing the way he does - 3-6 hour matches? Unless he finds a B and C game plan and cuts his match time in half - he'll be Nadal in a year's time and lucky to last until he's 30.
That comment is from April 2015. Nole imploded right after he won the French Open in early June 2016. So just over a year later what I predicted came to pass. You simply cannot play 2 or 3 3-6 hour matches every major tournament and NOT have it come back to bite you in the butt as you age. Federer's game isn't really considered to be all that taxing on the body and yet he's only won 2 Slams after turning 30. Of course he had a ton of competition From Nadal and Djokovic - but Djokovic hasn't had that added pressure or 2 other hungry elite players breathing down his aging neck. All he's had to deal with the last 3 years is...well...an even older Federer and perennial Mr. Comes Up Short Every Time - Andy Murray. No Nadal. No fast-rising young bucks on the block. Just Murray and Federer with the big 3-0 looming in the distance. And here we are today - Nole seemingly on the decline and out with tennis elbow.
I fully expect Nole will be back at the top and even win another Slam or two. But hopefully with the tennis experts seeing what Roger is doing at 35 - they'll end this ridic GOAT discussion and give him his due. It took him from 2010 AO to the 2012 Wimbledon to get #17. It then took him from Wimbledon 2012 to AO 2017 to get #18. Sasha Zverev looks like he really wants to be #1. Kyrgios has the talent if not the discipline to be #1. Playing the way he does - grinding, defending and retrieving - where does that leave Nole heading into his 30th year - and Nadal heading into his 31st year? It only gets harder to win Slams from here on. Just ask Roger.
GameSetAndMath said:
Following that logic you could also conclud that Nole has a sex addiction and has been serial cheating on his wife with porn "actresses" the entire time they've been together.
Nole's clay season will be a chance for him to bounce back. He is the current clay king so that should give him confidence, placebo whatever that is. But, let's say he does not get a title in the clay season, I think he will really begin to feel the pressure. And if he doesn't bounce back by winning the US Open then it will be worse.
But, I think he will win something from MC through WTF. A slam will get his confidence back. A masters will keep his hopes alive for the future.
Now it's all about winning slams for him now, I would guess . As many as he can win he will try to win. But Kyrgios is just around the corner. He will a regular feature in last 4 of slams very soon. The competition will get only better.
The main question at the moment is which grand slam is most preferable for having Djokovic win a slam. Is is the French Open? I think it's still doable with Rafa and Thiem as the only big competitors and no real guy coming up. Kyrgios, Zverev all have a big serve and should be more suited for fast-court play. French Open would remain doable I would think.
Outlook for the future, optimistically:
1 RG
2 Oz
1 US Open
Ends with 16 slams.
Outlook for the future, pessimistically:
1 Oz
1 RG
Ends with 14 slams.
Time will ultimately tell, though.
But, I think he will win something from MC through WTF. A slam will get his confidence back. A masters will keep his hopes alive for the future.
Now it's all about winning slams for him now, I would guess . As many as he can win he will try to win. But Kyrgios is just around the corner. He will a regular feature in last 4 of slams very soon. The competition will get only better.
The main question at the moment is which grand slam is most preferable for having Djokovic win a slam. Is is the French Open? I think it's still doable with Rafa and Thiem as the only big competitors and no real guy coming up. Kyrgios, Zverev all have a big serve and should be more suited for fast-court play. French Open would remain doable I would think.
Outlook for the future, optimistically:
1 RG
2 Oz
1 US Open
Ends with 16 slams.
Outlook for the future, pessimistically:
1 Oz
1 RG
Ends with 14 slams.
Time will ultimately tell, though.
the AntiPusher
The GOAT
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Busted said:GameSetAndMath said:
Following that logic you could also conclud that Nole has a sex addiction and has been serial cheating on his wife with porn "actresses" the entire time they've been together.
Is Novak really hitting it, porn actresses too..I know he had that Bollywood incident..Becker sure wasn't a role for any married man
I agree with the original post in that Novak is likely done being the super dominant player he's been since 2011 or so. But he has way too much game to not come back as a force. It seems like most of his issues right now are psychological. I always thought his game would age well because of his ability to play offensive tennis, and I still think that. I'd bet that he'll win at least 2 more slams.
El Dude said:
I was laughing because that's exactly what I predicted in my April 2015 comment - and here we are 2 years later discussing just that. At that time most tennis experts and fans were predicting world domination for Nole for years to come and common sense said - he's about to turn 28 and most tennis players start on the downhill slide at 28 or 29. So him still be the same dominant player at 30 was highly unlikely. If Federer couldn't do it - then what was the likelihood that Djokovic, who plays a much more physical and grinding game, would? In my mind- it just wasn't going to happen.
