The Reign of Novak is Over

[El Dude]

I think Novak's loss to #119 Denis Istomin--the first time he's lost to an opponent outside the top 100 in a Slam match--is worthy of its own thread. Maybe my title is hyperbolic, but it is illustrative of the situation. Consider that Novak has gone out of two of the last three Slams in the 3R or earlier. That's quite worrisome.

Now I'm not saying he won't come back and compete in Slam titles again, but I think the level we saw in 2015 to early 2016 is gone for good, and we may not even see his "first of equals" form of 2012-14.

I hate to say it, but maybe Carol was right?!

Anyhow, it really shows you how important the mental aspect of the game is. This is a guy that is only eight months removed from a Roland Garros title and four Slams in a row, a seemingly unbeatable player.

On the other hand, this is a wake-up call if there ever was one. But it also means that Roland Garros will be the most important Slam of his career. If he goes out early again, he may never get his confidence back.

 

[El Dude]

Technically speaking, he's currently 1625 points behind Andy Murray. If Andy wins the AO, which seems likely now, he'll be 3485 points back. This is really Andy's chance to get a nice lead early in the year.

 

[Mile]

Heil to New King, who is it ?

 

[El Dude]

Andy will rule the year by default, but he's like the Steward of Gondor until a new, rightful king steps forward. There are a lot of players who could dethrone him - maybe the Wild West is finally here, at least for the next year or so until the next top player establishes dominance. Who will that be? Probably Alex Zverev, but he won't be ready to truly rule until 2018 at the earliest, probably 2019 or even 2020. So it could be pretty wild for the next couple years. I wouldn't be surprised to see the next eight Slams go to five or six different players.

 

[rafanoy1992]

I think Novak's loss to #119 Denis Istomin--the first time he's lost to an opponent outside the top 100 in a Slam match--is worthy of its own thread. Maybe my title is hyperbolic, but it is illustrative of the situation. Consider that Novak has gone out of two of the last three Slams in the 3R or earlier. That's quite worrisome.

Now I'm not saying he won't come back and compete in Slam titles again, but I think the level we saw in 2015 to early 2016 is gone for good, and we may not even see his "first of equals" form of 2012-14.

I hate to say it, but maybe Carol was right?!

Anyhow, it really shows you how important the mental aspect of the game is. This is a guy that is only eight months removed from a Roland Garros title and four Slams in a row, a seemingly unbeatable player.

On the other hand, this is a wake-up call if there ever was one. But it also means that Roland Garros will be the most important Slam of his career. If he goes out early again, he may never get his confidence back.

What's interesting about this loss is his bod language especially in the 4th and 5th set. It seems like he was "content" to play an okay match. I did not see any "fire" in his belly. I'm just wondering if he is really content with his life now.

 

[the AntiPusher]

I think Novak's loss to #119 Denis Istomin--the first time he's lost to an opponent outside the top 100 in a Slam match--is worthy of its own thread. Maybe my title is hyperbolic, but it is illustrative of the situation. Consider that Novak has gone out of two of the last three Slams in the 3R or earlier. That's quite worrisome.

Now I'm not saying he won't come back and compete in Slam titles again, but I think the level we saw in 2015 to early 2016 is gone for good, and we may not even see his "first of equals" form of 2012-14.

I hate to say it, but maybe Carol was right?!

Anyhow, it really shows you how important the mental aspect of the game is. This is a guy that is only eight months removed from a Roland Garros title and four Slams in a row, a seemingly unbeatable player.

On the other hand, this is a wake-up call if there ever was one. But it also means that Roland Garros will be the most important Slam of his career. If he goes out early again, he may never get his confidence back.

El Dude, how much does firing Becker and the Bollywood actress plays a factor in the demise of Novak

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Tiger did not win a major since 2008. Both Novak and Tiger are Buddhists. Just pointing out the commonalities. :snicker

 

[kskate2]

I think Novak's loss to #119 Denis Istomin--the first time he's lost to an opponent outside the top 100 in a Slam match--is worthy of its own thread. Maybe my title is hyperbolic, but it is illustrative of the situation. Consider that Novak has gone out of two of the last three Slams in the 3R or earlier. That's quite worrisome.

Now I'm not saying he won't come back and compete in Slam titles again, but I think the level we saw in 2015 to early 2016 is gone for good, and we may not even see his "first of equals" form of 2012-14.

I hate to say it, but maybe Carol was right?!

Anyhow, it really shows you how important the mental aspect of the game is. This is a guy that is only eight months removed from a Roland Garros title and four Slams in a row, a seemingly unbeatable player.

On the other hand, this is a wake-up call if there ever was one. But it also means that Roland Garros will be the most important Slam of his career. If he goes out early again, he may never get his confidence back.

El Dude, how much does firing Becker and the Bollywood actress plays a factor in the demise of Novak

Was it a firing or did Becker quit? Either way I don't see it as a positive for him. He was in a rut winning big matches that's why he brought Boris on. He won several slams after the union. So when people say what did Boris really bring to the picture, I think he brought some mental toughness that was lacking in the big matches. As for his extra-curricular activities, well let's just say I'm sure he was distracted for a little awhile, but appears to have put that all behind him and reconcile w/ his wife.

 

[Rational National]

Lets not get carried away. Novak seems physically okay and only 2 weeks ago played a blinder against Murray in Doha - he clearly wants mentally correct today but its far too soon to talk about him being finished or even to suggest that he won't get back to the levels of the past in terms of play. Where I may concede that he will struggle is to maintain the absolute month to month, week to week, day to day dominance and incredibly high consistent levels - but that is by virtue of Murray being more mentally solid and Novak being perhaps a bit less so but mainly because such standards are incredibly difficult to maintain and actually if you think about sport evolution its not just maintaining the standards its continuing to push the standards even when you are no.1.

All of Novaks 'problems' are mental. If he can recalibrate his thinking, his state of wellbeing, etc I see absolutely no reason why he won't be challenging and winning slams this year. Objectively he is still the best player with the know how to win and hopefully through this mental recalibration the desire to go back out and win, he will win many more slams.

 

[sid]

Andy will rule the year by default, but he's like the Steward of Gondor until a new, rightful king steps forward. There are a lot of players who could dethrone him - maybe the Wild West is finally here, at least for the next year or so until the next top player establishes dominance. Who will that be? Probably Alex Zverev, but he won't be ready to truly rule until 2018 at the earliest, probably 2019 or even 2020. So it could be pretty wild for the next couple years. I wouldn't be surprised to see the next eight Slams go to five or six different players.

Dude this is abit disrespectfull.

(Andy will rule the year by default, but he's like the Steward of Gondor until a new, rightful king steps forward)

Murray has worked very hard to be where he is right now also Novak has only lost one match :cover.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

I think it would be foolish to write Djokovic off. He's actually had up-and-down periods before, following his amazing 2011 season. He had an early loss at Wimbledon, but still made the US Open final and beat Andy recently. He's going to be a favourite for the big titles for a while yet!

This being said, I wouldn't be surprised if the days of total dominance are indeed over - and asking him to return to the level of 2015 is a big ask anyway. Federer also never rediscovered the form of his 2006 season afterwards, although he was still the dominant form in 2007. (Of course, he was a few years younger than Djoko is now.)

Novak will turn 30 this year. How many GS have people won at 30 or above since, say, the time of Laver and Rosewall? Connors has 2, Agassi has 2, and Wawrinka has 2. Players stay at the top level longer these days than they used to in the last few decades, it seems, but still this will slowly start to matter.

What is to Novak's advantage is that there aren't any much younger players currently really making a breakthrough - but a few do appear to be near the cusp of doing so. My guess is that, over the next couple of years, we'll see Novak get back to #1 at some point, and maybe win a few more Grand Slam titles. Expecting him to dominate again as he did from AO15-RG16 is too much, however.

PS. I don't really think it's appropriate to speculate about a player's private life, particularly when (afaik) there is nothing much definitely known. Certainly, in the "post-truth" era, we should be careful not to treat conjecture as if it was fact.

 

[isabelle]

Nole'll probably come back strong one day but he'll turn 30 soon and his reign seems to belong to the past for sure

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Novak had a 3-4 year period when he was unplayable. Roger had the same, so did Rafa and all the other greats. It never lasted though, that unplayable phase. 4 years tops. Novak will still be good, even great and win big things, but the unplayable phase is over.

 

[the AntiPusher]

I think Novak's loss to #119 Denis Istomin--the first time he's lost to an opponent outside the top 100 in a Slam match--is worthy of its own thread. Maybe my title is hyperbolic, but it is illustrative of the situation. Consider that Novak has gone out of two of the last three Slams in the 3R or earlier. That's quite worrisome.

Now I'm not saying he won't come back and compete in Slam titles again, but I think the level we saw in 2015 to early 2016 is gone for good, and we may not even see his "first of equals" form of 2012-14.

I hate to say it, but maybe Carol was right?!

Anyhow, it really shows you how important the mental aspect of the game is. This is a guy that is only eight months removed from a Roland Garros title and four Slams in a row, a seemingly unbeatable player.

On the other hand, this is a wake-up call if there ever was one. But it also means that Roland Garros will be the most important Slam of his career. If he goes out early again, he may never get his confidence back.

El Dude, how much does firing Becker and the Bollywood actress plays a factor in the demise of Novak

Was it a firing or did Becker quit? Either way I don't see it as a positive for him. He was in a rut winning big matches that's why he brought Boris on. He won several slams after the union. So when people say what did Boris really bring to the picture, I think he brought some mental toughness that was lacking in the big matches. As for his extra-curricular activities, well let's just say I'm sure he was distracted for a little awhile, but appears to have put that all behind him and reconcile w/ his wife.

Becker was fired..remember how he tweeted during WTFs that Novak needs to get focused and train harder(something like that).. The Bollywood actress drama after affect still is having a mental weight on him it appears but that is just pure speculation even from the former tennis pros turned analyst.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

IMHO, actually it is not the case that Novak played bad yesterday. It is more of a case of Istomin playing out of his mind and not wilting away.

The speculation is that Becker was fired as he was being bad influence on Novak. That Becker was fired is a fact (although not openly admitted), the reason is speculation.

 

[Front242]

Novak had a 3-4 year period when he was unplayable. Roger had the same, so did Rafa and all the other greats. It never lasted though, that unplayable phase. 4 years tops. Novak will still be good, even great and win big things, but the unplayable phase is over.

3-4 years? He was great at many tournaments but lost a fair share too in 3-4 years. Just saying

 

[El Dude]

Novak was "unplayable" in 2011 and in 2015 to mid-2016. In 2012-14 he was the first among equals but not unplayable.

Just to be clear, I am not predicting the complete demise of Novak. "Reign" implies kingship, that is ruling over the rest of the field. That era seems over.

That said, I think there are bigger concerns. I'm not ready to write Novak off, but his mental game seems off. Fixing one's mentality and confidence is far easier said than done.

Also, sid, I don't mean to disrespect Andy or belittle his accomplishment. In past threads I was defending his year-end #1 as legitimate. But it is also the case that he was the YE1 in the year that Novak struggled in the second half, Rafa is past his prime and injured, and Roger missed most of the year. Clearly he's not on the same level as those three, but he's a greater player than many who have been #1, and even some who have been YE1 (better than Roddick, Kuerten, Hewitt, Courier, and Nastase, imo).

 

[crystalfire]

sad to see him lose. ive been busy lately but tennis isnt what it used to be when we had the big 4 quite frequently make the semis of all slams and masters. I used to watch and keep track of scores eagerly. Now it just seems a little dull. i am sure nole will sin slams again but without fed and rafa doing much and now nole losing early this leaves us with murray. and murrays never the one who has shown to be consistent in slams (compared to nole rafa and fed). and theres no new dominant face on the rise or even on the horizon. seems like we are headed for few years where any player truly has an opportunity to win some big titles. i guess all im saying is its tough to be interested when all the stars are out. ill still keep track but it wont be as often. until one or 2 start going deep in every tourney again.

 

[El Dude]

Good to see you around, crystalfire. I partially agree with you in that it is sad to see the greats fade. On the other hand, I'm ready for some fresh blood and am excited about a "wild west" tour for a couple years in which anything can happen.

I also disagree that there are no new dominant faces on the horizon. I think Alexander Zverev has a very good chance of being a future #1 and Slam winner. Now whether or not he'll be a true great remains to be seen. We could be entering an era in which there are a bunch of one-Slam wonders, a few 2-3 Slam winners, and maybe the best of the bunch wins only 4-5 or so. But of all players younger than Novak and Andy (born in 1987), Zverev seems to have the best chance of being the next top player. He is, at least, certainly "on the horizon."

 

[crystalfire]

Good to see you around, crystalfire. I partially agree with you in that it is sad to see the greats fade. On the other hand, I'm ready for some fresh blood and am excited about a "wild west" tour for a couple years in which anything can happen.

I also disagree that there are no new dominant faces on the horizon. I think Alexander Zverev has a very good chance of being a future #1 and Slam winner. Now whether or not he'll be a true great remains to be seen. We could be entering an era in which there are a bunch of one-Slam wonders, a few 2-3 Slam winners, and maybe the best of the bunch wins only 4-5 or so. But of all players younger than Novak and Andy (born in 1987), Zverev seems to have the best chance of being the next top player. He is, at least, certainly "on the horizon."

right thats what i meant. a few years where we see multiple slam winners. i hope you are right about zverey for the sake of tennis. While it is good for the sport to have multiple slam winners those of us who watch the sport regularly can't really get behind anyone in that case and if that happens me personally will not be keeping track of all the tournaments. just the slams probably. even that not as attentively as before. tennis without a great player or future great player is just not as fun lol