Following Stan Wawrinka's Aussie Open win, who do you think will be the next new Grand Slam winner?
The next new slam winner
- Thread starter harrycairns
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RE: The next slam winner
I don't know, maybe Nadal? Djokovic?
No, I'm taking it to mean who will be the next NEW slam winner, right?
Tough call. Ferrer and Berdych are the only ones with a slam final, and Janowicz has a semi.
I think it is too late for Ferrer unless he gets even a more massive break in the draw and it opening up more than it did at last year's Roland Garros.
Berdych has also had his chances. But he can't seem to beat Nadal anymore since he shushed the crowd in Madrid 2006, and Djokovic remains a tough nut for him to crack. He seems more capable of beating Federer earlier in the tournament rather than in the semis or finals.
One might say Janowicz, but he has had a series of injuries since Wimbledon last year, and he's finding it difficult to find that level again, though now I think it might be more of a confidence and mental thing than injuries. I also don't know if he is capable of going through more than one of the top guys yet, even if he is on with his serve and the rest of his game.
I don't think any of the others are capable of beating a combination of the top guys yet. The draw would have to really open up for one of them, or they would have to have a massive breakthrough performance.
So, I guess I might say Berdych if he got very lucky, but I could say the same about many of them.
I don't see anyone else other than maybe Dimitrov ready to challenge multiple top guys, and I am still uncertain of Dimitrov's fitness in best of 5 against top guns that are more fit than he is and play better defense on these generally slower courts. A faster US Open surface might help him, but it would help others as well. Difficult question at this point.
Respectfully,
masterclass
I don't know, maybe Nadal? Djokovic?
No, I'm taking it to mean who will be the next NEW slam winner, right?
Tough call. Ferrer and Berdych are the only ones with a slam final, and Janowicz has a semi.
I think it is too late for Ferrer unless he gets even a more massive break in the draw and it opening up more than it did at last year's Roland Garros.
Berdych has also had his chances. But he can't seem to beat Nadal anymore since he shushed the crowd in Madrid 2006, and Djokovic remains a tough nut for him to crack. He seems more capable of beating Federer earlier in the tournament rather than in the semis or finals.
One might say Janowicz, but he has had a series of injuries since Wimbledon last year, and he's finding it difficult to find that level again, though now I think it might be more of a confidence and mental thing than injuries. I also don't know if he is capable of going through more than one of the top guys yet, even if he is on with his serve and the rest of his game.
I don't think any of the others are capable of beating a combination of the top guys yet. The draw would have to really open up for one of them, or they would have to have a massive breakthrough performance.
So, I guess I might say Berdych if he got very lucky, but I could say the same about many of them.
I don't see anyone else other than maybe Dimitrov ready to challenge multiple top guys, and I am still uncertain of Dimitrov's fitness in best of 5 against top guns that are more fit than he is and play better defense on these generally slower courts. A faster US Open surface might help him, but it would help others as well. Difficult question at this point.
Respectfully,
masterclass
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First, welcome to Tennis Frontier, harrycairns! 
Impossible to predict, given the near stranglehold the Big Four have had over the Majors for the last several years.
Out of curiosity, I looked at a list of GS finals going back to 2006. It's immediately clear that most involved some combination of the Big Four. The few which did involve someone else demonstrate not only that they're relatively rare, but even when there is an outsider, he rarely even wins a set.
Here's a list of all GS finals since 2006 which include a player who has never won one:
Australian Open:
2006 - Baghdatis: 5–7, 7–5, 6–0, 6–2
2007 - Gonzalez: 7–6(7–2), 6–4, 6–4
2008 - Tsonga: 4–6, 6–4, 6–3, 7–6(7–2)
French Open:
2009 - Soderling: 6–1, 7–6(7–1), 6–4
2010 - Soderling: 6–4, 6–2, 6–4
2013 - Ferrer: 6–3, 6–2, 6–3
Wimbledon:
2010 - Berdych: 6–3, 7–5, 6–4
Only 7 out of 33 finals included a non-GS winner, and a total of two -- TWO! -- sets were won (Baghdatis and Tsonga).
Impossible to predict, given the near stranglehold the Big Four have had over the Majors for the last several years.
Out of curiosity, I looked at a list of GS finals going back to 2006. It's immediately clear that most involved some combination of the Big Four. The few which did involve someone else demonstrate not only that they're relatively rare, but even when there is an outsider, he rarely even wins a set.
Here's a list of all GS finals since 2006 which include a player who has never won one:
Australian Open:
2006 - Baghdatis: 5–7, 7–5, 6–0, 6–2
2007 - Gonzalez: 7–6(7–2), 6–4, 6–4
2008 - Tsonga: 4–6, 6–4, 6–3, 7–6(7–2)
French Open:
2009 - Soderling: 6–1, 7–6(7–1), 6–4
2010 - Soderling: 6–4, 6–2, 6–4
2013 - Ferrer: 6–3, 6–2, 6–3
Wimbledon:
2010 - Berdych: 6–3, 7–5, 6–4
Only 7 out of 33 finals included a non-GS winner, and a total of two -- TWO! -- sets were won (Baghdatis and Tsonga).
Front242
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Ernie? Not a hope. I really like the guy but since when has he ever shown the ability to make it far enough in a slam to even contend for a final ? Best slam result was quarter final of the French Open 2008 and 2nd after that was AO '07 4th round. I really like the guy but no, ain't happening. Berdych has a far better chance of at least making a final than Ernie.
And edited 'cos Ernie has the biggest walkabouts on tour. Berdych isn't even in the same league there. In fact, after playing superbly to beat Berdych in 3 tiebreak sets at Wimbledon 2012, he lost the next match like a clown as he so often has after playing great the match before.
And edited 'cos Ernie has the biggest walkabouts on tour. Berdych isn't even in the same league there. In fact, after playing superbly to beat Berdych in 3 tiebreak sets at Wimbledon 2012, he lost the next match like a clown as he so often has after playing great the match before.
Well I did say all 3 need a psychology course, remember?
Berd has been at a higher level for a longer period of time and has wasted some real opportunities. I'm not sure he will get many more. Ernie hasn't been consistently good until the last few months where you've seen a renewed focus in him. I would give him a little more time to see if he can maintain that level for the rest of the year.
Berd has been at a higher level for a longer period of time and has wasted some real opportunities. I'm not sure he will get many more. Ernie hasn't been consistently good until the last few months where you've seen a renewed focus in him. I would give him a little more time to see if he can maintain that level for the rest of the year.
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Riotbeard
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I put other, because I have no idea! One of the "young" guys will eventually. Right now it seems like Dimi may be the first in the semi-distant future, last summer it looked like Jerzy. None have had good enough longterm results to say with confidence. Milos has been hovering at the same level for a while, but who knows. It's honestly hard for me to see any of the traditional top 10 whipping boys doing it, except maybe tsonga (if he weren't tailspinning). Frankly all of them are as old or older than the top guys except Fed, so it's hard to see it happening from them.
GameSetAndMath
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Ernie does not need a psychology course. He just needs to hear "Son, from today,
you are on your own" from his dad and then he will win a GS.
you are on your own" from his dad and then he will win a GS.
Moxie
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Great poll, harrycairns, and welcome! I voted Dimitrov, but, like most everyone else I feel flummoxed as to who it might actually be. I was buying Janowicz, for awhile. And I could have picked Gulbis. But I'm with Kskate on the notion that a lot of these guys haven't proved the mental fortitude. Some seem to be getting sturdier, but that's a wait-and-see game. There's a good chance that it's "the player to be named later," which could put it at least 2 years off.
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Moxie629 said:
Serve for one, shorter points also help him, plus he is not afraid to attack the net to shorten points even more...He plays strong TBs, that also helps. Of course there is a lot of wishful thinking on my part but also if things go his way, it does make sense somewhat...and like you mentioned, strange things have happened in Wimby recently, so who knows...
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