shawnbm said:
It certainly will be the biggest match since Nadal was trying to complete the career grand slam in New York in 2010. Before that it was 2009 French with Fed trying to do the same. They both succeeded. Getting a two-times around career grand slam would be a feather in Nadal's cap that might be one of the most compelling arguments for him ever. Looking back, those victories over Roger in Paris in 2006-2007 (when Fed would have won back-to-back grand slams) might be the two biggest of Rafa's career, in retrospect.
I get your idea about those matches, but I wouldn't say they are the biggest for Nadal, just amongst the big ones in terms of blocking Roger's resume. For himself, personally, he always cites the 08 Wimbledon, and I'm pretty sure his '10 USO is up there. Should we get a Rafa-Nole final in Oz, it should be another barn-burner, I hope. Completing the double-box set would be something, but that's a ways away.
Didi said:
I understand your enthusiasm about Nadal folks but until proven otherwise Djokovic should be the consensus favorite for Melbourne and quite frankly I don't even see much room for discussion here. It's his slam to lose. I don't think the betting market should be an indicator here as someone suggested because the majority of people placing sums on any player are just the casual tennis fans betting for fun.
That's how bettings odds are created and we have seen how it turned out in Wimbledon and New York where Djokovic, respectively Murray were supposed to be the favorites. As things stand now, Djokovic is the favorite to win Melbourne. In 2012 Nadal proved that he can challenge him there and even have him on the brink of defeat but getting close is not getting the job done as we have seen with Nole in Paris this year.
With Murray just returning to the tour in January and huge question marks over Federer, Nole should be a lock for the finals. This time he likely won't be coming off an exhausting semifinal if he faces Nadal in the finals and will be desperate to win a big title for the first time in god knows how long.
I also don't think that the Indoor season will be an indicator either as to who's going to be the favorite for Oz because the following offseason is just too long to maintain momentum and form. In many ways over the years it's almost been a curse to finish the season strong.
In 2008 it was Djokovic who won the YEC and then he went down in Oz without a whimper. In 2009 Davydenko shined at the end only to fall apart in Melbourne. In 2010 Roger was on a tear, having played his strongest YEC ever, only to lose in the semis of Oz. In 2011 Roger was on a tear again, winning Paris and the YEC only to get dispatched by Nadal Down Under. Only Djokovic in 12-13 managed to win the YEC and the AO back-to-back but god knows how close it was against Wawrinka.
Didi, I agree that betting odds don't tell us much. And you make an interesting point about the late season not being a great predictor of Oz success...except, perhaps for Novak. When he has finished the year with big wins and confidence, he rolls at the AO. Nadal will be the 2nd favorite. I would favor Djokovic to make the final over Nadal. But if they meet, I think the odds get more even as to who comes through. Of course, it's early to say any of this, but they are the big rivalry, and so who can resist? :snigger