The Fall of Rafael Nadal

ClayDeath

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According to Ferru Rafa's injury situation is "delicate".

Previously he had said that Rafa was going to win a gold medal in Rio.

Content analysis teaches that whatever is going to happen is happening already.

You just have to be able to spot it and analyze it.

Gold medal is not happening.

What is more likely is another injury.
 

masterclass

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truth is almost always painful for some.

but again one need to re-visit the title of this thread: it is about the decline of one of the all time greats of our sport.

one has to be grounded in REALITY to understand the true dynamics in play.

one has to be able to study and spot trends.

for instance if we say that in 2015 against the top 10 players rafa was able to break serve slightly less than 20% of the time on clay, nothing is meant to be negative in that statement. it is a fact and it is an alarming fact if one happens to be in the rafa camp.

and so on. general masterclass has addressed the decline with facts and not blind conjectures. I do the same thing. in fact the experts often come to the same conclusion soon enough. this is not rocket science folks.

we have our players but we do not blindly worship them which would clearly blind one to the reality on the ground.


rafa has Olympic glory. nothing positive can come from going to the Olympics. especially since he said just a few days ago that he was not able to play in Toronto because the wrist injury was too recent.

and then there is the fear of Zika virus. there are also security concerns among other concerns.

another injury to wrist would further delay the progress or it could even end the career. wrist injuries can be managed early on but you cant press your luck with them. they can easily turn to chronic injuries that almost never heal fully. it is a complicated joint.

finally there is so little time left. he wont be able to compete with the top players if he doesn't take a few months to go fix the health issues, fitness issues, and the like. soon it really will be too late.


so assuming he wants to get back in the saddle, he has to start making a few smart decisions.

Correct General Hercules. I'll expound on this for awhile, so anyone reading, get a cup of your favorite beverage and sip it slowly. :)

Reminders of this thread's title appear to be continuously needed. No, it is not a positive subject matter, but it is what it is. Everyone is free to create their own thread and topic about any player, tournament, regarding the subject of tennis.

It's the player's PR manager's task to always put a positive spin on everything the player does to make him look good. Reality is besides the point.

It's the sponsor's job to show players promoting their product in the most positive light. The actual quality is beside the point.

It is the cheerleader's job to spearhead the rah-rah's, put on the happy face, and get the crowd going to scream for victory no matter the actual score. It is irrelevant.

It is the task of the interested impartial observer to see the facts as they are when attempting to discuss and draw conclusions. The facts and conclusion may not always be pleasant, but that should not deter one in arriving at the proper conclusion. Delusion is the term for those who want to dismiss, alter, or obscure the facts to arrive at a rosy or desired conclusion.

Discussion in this thread should be about when, how, and why this decline happened, and also about if he can or wants to reverse it and how that can happen, or not.

Injuries are part of almost all sports. Aging and natural decline are as well. These things are negative factors with respect to any player's game. To compensate for them one needs to work to be as fit as one can be, and have a little luck. Even the fittest athlete can suffer a freak injury. Look at Muster. He was putting something in the baggage compartment of his car and some other car hit his and took his knee out; a freak injury. Still, it is how one deals with injuries that becomes important. In his case, he went through months of work while an invalid to rehabilitate himself and get back to playing tennis at the highest level. Even Federer is going to have to go through a similar trial for the rest of the year.

In this case, the true tennis fan should be and are interested in only what may be the best solutions and outcome for Rafa's tennis. The best solutions for his tennis are doing those positive things in practice and his game that will give him the best chances to rise once again. The worst are those things that do not contribute or actually harm his game. As longtime observers, one can hope to offer learned opinions and perspective, and hopefully engage in discussion about them. This is a forum for that. We've seen and noted what Rafa did to play at his best, and which things happened before, and during his decline.

Clay Death has followed Rafa's tennis closely from the beginning, not as just a fan, but a keen observer of the game. He has seen everything an observer can see. He saw Muster, he played tennis in a similar style, and knows what kind of fitness it takes to play the style of tennis that Rafa plays - the topspin tactical and power game. He knows exactly that what a player puts into that game is what the player can get out of it. Nothing more, nothing less.

He has defended Rafa's play, victories and losses countless times and was unfairly attacked by his opponent's fans in other forums in the past. But he has also criticized Rafa when he has seen things going wrong and been attacked for "being negative" by some of Rafa's fans, even though he is simply calling things as they are. If the good general has repeated his mantra, it is because things remain unchanged, or he observes there is little or no improvement.

Things in the last three seasons (2014, 2015, 2016) have drastically gone downhill for Rafa, and it didn't start there, the pattern can be identified further back. It's a negative state of affairs for his tennis, there is no avoiding or denying that. If Rafa wants to improve his tennis, he can't run or hide from it, nor should his fans do so. But one can still believe there is a way forward for him, if he wants to make a serious effort. For me, that is a huge positive. If he doesn't want it any longer, then the outcome is obviously a huge negative with respect to his future tennis career.

In this writer's opinion, the way forward ideally involves taking the time to get fully healed, both physically and mentally, so his intensity can return unimpeded, so he can work hard to be as fit as he can be, play hard, start winning, and take another run at Roland Garros next year and walk away a winner on his own terms.

No, we are not his coaches, but I believe I've seen enough of him and others to be able to make good suggestions. But it's not as you say, rocket science anyway; the model is there - 2013. Forget Australia. It needs to start early on the clay. I think he needs to go back to his roots and play the game the way similar to the way he played before with a couple of minor adjustments. His desire to be competitive with the best on hard courts has harmed his clay game. It has hurt his timing. Sometimes it seems that he doesn't even know where to stand on the court. Forget those excuses about the game getting too fast. Work and adjustments are needed.

Horizontally, he can make an adjustment for being a step slower due to aging, by positioning himself more toward the center and taking some backhands, rather than parking too far on his backhand side to run around the backhand to hit the forehand. Then he can get to his forehand wing in time to make the banana shot. Vertically, he doesn't need to stand on the baseline to return, especially on clay, but he shouldn't be in the stands either. He needs to be close enough to hit returns with enough power to hit past the service line. Short returns have killed him against decent aggressive players like Fognini, who had never defeated him before 2015, not to mention Djokovic. So he needs to combine good positioning with better conditioning to deliver enough power when needed.

Rafa, as any player, needs to play with confidence to be at his best. To do that he needs to work to do what is needed to win. As in 2013, he should start next season at a lower level - 250's and start winning matches and tournaments against the lesser lights and gain confidence. Beat players like Fognini. Then tackle the elite Murray's and Djokovic's of the tennis world. And be prepared for the rising higher quality younger players. It doesn't get easier; time does not stand still.

That's the way it is,
masterclass
 
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ClayDeath

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Correct General Hercules. I'll expound on this for awhile, so anyone reading, get a cup of your favorite beverage and sip it slowly. :)

Reminders of this thread's title appear to be continuously needed. No, it is not a positive subject matter, but it is what it is. Everyone is free to create their own thread and topic about any player, tournament, regarding the subject of tennis.

It's the player's PR manager's task to always put a positive spin on everything the player does to make him look good. Reality is besides the point.

It's the sponsor's job to show players promoting their product in the most positive light. The actual quality is beside the point.

It is the cheerleader's job to spearhead the rah-rah's, put on the happy face, and get the crowd going to scream for victory no matter the actual score. It is irrelevant.

It is the task of the interested impartial observer to see the facts as they are when attempting to discuss and draw conclusions. The facts and conclusion may not always be pleasant, but that should not deter one in arriving at the proper conclusion. Delusion is the term for those who want to dismiss, alter, or obscure the facts to arrive at a rosy or desired conclusion.

Discussion in this thread should be about when, how, and why this decline happened, and also about if he can or wants to reverse it and how that can happen, or not.

Injuries are part of almost all sports. Aging and natural decline are as well. These things are negative factors with respect to any player's game. To compensate for them one needs to work to be as fit as one can be, and have a little luck. Even the fittest athlete can suffer a freak injury. Look at Muster. He was putting something in the baggage compartment of his car and some other car hit his and took his knee out; a freak injury. Still, it is how one deals with injuries that becomes important. In his case, he went through months of work while an invalid to rehabilitate himself and get back to playing tennis at the highest level. Even Federer is going to have to go through a similar trial for the rest of the year.

In this case, the true tennis fan should be and are interested in only what may be the best solutions and outcome for Rafa's tennis. The best solutions for his tennis are doing those positive things in practice and his game that will give him the best chances to rise once again. The worst are those things that do not contribute or actually harm his game. As longtime observers, one can hope to offer learned opinions and perspective, and hopefully engage in discussion about them. This is a forum for that. We've seen and noted what Rafa did to play at his best, and which things happened before, and during his decline.

Clay Death has followed Rafa's tennis closely from the beginning, not as just a fan, but a keen observer of the game. He has seen everything an observer can see. He saw Muster, he played tennis in a similar style, and knows what kind of fitness it takes to play the style of tennis that Rafa plays - the topspin tactical and power game. He knows exactly that what a player puts into that game is what the player can get out of it. Nothing more, nothing less.

He has defended Rafa's play, victories and losses countless times and was unfairly attacked by his opponent's fans in other forums in the past. But he has also criticized Rafa when he has seen things going wrong and been attacked for "being negative" by some of Rafa's fans, even though he is simply calling things as they are. If the good general has repeated his mantra, it is because things remain unchanged, or he observes there is little or no improvement.

Things in the last three seasons (2014, 2015, 2016) have drastically gone downhill for Rafa, and it didn't start there, the pattern can be identified further back. It's a negative state of affairs for his tennis, there is no avoiding or denying that. If Rafa wants to improve his tennis, he can't run or hide from it, nor should his fans do so. But one can still believe there is a way forward for him, if he wants to make a serious effort. For me, that is a huge positive. If he doesn't want it any longer, then the outcome is obviously a huge negative with respect to his future tennis career.

In this writer's opinion, the way forward ideally involves taking the time to get fully healed, both physically and mentally, so his intensity can return unimpeded, so he can work hard to be as fit as he can be, play hard, start winning, and take another run at Roland Garros next year and walk away a winner on his own terms.

No, we are not his coaches, but I believe I've seen enough of him and others to be able to make good suggestions. But it's not as you say, rocket science anyway; the model is there - 2013. Forget Australia. It needs to start early on the clay. I think he needs to go back to his roots and play the game the way similar to the way he played before with a couple of minor adjustments. His desire to be competitive with the best on hard courts has harmed his clay game. It has hurt his timing. Sometimes it seems that he doesn't even know where to stand on the court. Forget those excuses about the game getting too fast. Work and adjustments are needed.

Horizontally, he can make an adjustment for being a step slower due to aging, by positioning himself more toward the center and taking some backhands, rather than parking too far on his backhand side to run around the backhand to hit the forehand. Then he can get to his forehand wing in time to make the banana shot. Vertically, he doesn't need to stand on the baseline to return, especially on clay, but he shouldn't be in the stands either. He needs to be close enough to hit returns with enough power to hit past the service line. Short returns have killed him against decent aggressive players like Fognini, who had never defeated him before 2015, not to mention Djokovic. So he needs to combine good positioning with better conditioning to deliver enough power when needed.

Rafa, as any player, needs to play with confidence to be at his best. To do that he needs to work to do what is needed to win. As in 2013, he should start next season at a lower level - 250's and start winning matches and tournaments against the lesser lights and gain confidence. Beat players like Fognini. Then tackle the elite Murray's and Djokovic's of the tennis world. And be prepared for the rising higher quality younger players. It doesn't get easier; time does not stand still.

That's the way it is,
masterclass


remarkable post with zero spin as usual.

this is what we do. we call the reality on the ground exactly as we see it and we let others come up with the spin on the matter.

we just don't have time for spins.
 
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ClayDeath

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bryan brothers withdrew from the Olympics due to health concerns.

so there are more than just health concerns as far as Rafa should be concerned.

there is a huge risk of a career ending injury. wrist injuries cant be taken lightly.

there are security concerns.

living conditions at the Olympic village are not optimal for the athletes.

for rafa there is a huge opportunity cost for being Rio.

it is massive amount of time that can be put to far better use. he can go fix his fitness and get healthy for a bloody change.

he can get on clay for a few days so he can find some consistency in his ground game again.


and so on. more later.
 

ClayDeath

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Rafa would be sitting on 19 slams today had he managed his fitness, his training, and his scheduling better.

and of course significantly more masters crowns also.
 
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masterclass

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Agreed General.
I think scheduling the Australian Open and other early season hard court events, have begun his injury problems too many times in his career.
That's not to say it is the whole cause (fitness/training preparation are a big factor), but ends up being the vehicle.
I believe there are a couple of reasons for that.

1. Hard courts - jarring surface.

2. AO is a big tough tournament very early in the season coming after the longest layoff.
If a lot of preparation hasn't been done in the off season, a player will not be as fit as he needs to be for seven best of 5 matches.
Rafa in general needs more preparation to have his game in order.
I think he often goes into the tournament with a lot of intensity because he has been off for awhile, but his preparation may not always match that.
By the QF, his fitness is tested.

3. Rafa has many times decided to play exhibitions in the off season, or had some vacation or another and may have lacked preparation. If he has preparation, he does it on his hard court in Manacor, whereas his best ground work is done on the clay where he is the most comfortable.

4. Participation in other tournaments surrounding AO like Abu Dhabi, Doha, Rotterdam all on hard courts. In 2009, after his tough AO title win, why the hell was he in Rotterdam?

One time he avoided all of that was in 2013 when he started on the clay in South America, and had a lot of preparation once he got healthy in late 2012-2013, and look how great he performed in 2013.

Has the AO and other early hc tournaments been worth it? 11 trips there, one title and a couple of finals.
But at what cost? How much has it strained him right at the start of the season?

Now he is 30, he needs to schedule his events very smartly and prepare sufficiently to get the best from himself.

Respectfully,
masterclass
 
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ClayDeath

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Agreed General.
I think scheduling the Australian Open and other early season hard court events, have begun his injury problems too many times in his career.
That's not to say it is the whole cause (fitness/training preparation are a big factor), but ends up being the vehicle.
I believe there are a couple of reasons for that.

1. Hard courts - jarring surface.

2. AO is a big tough tournament very early in the season coming after the longest layoff.
If a lot of preparation hasn't been done in the off season, a player will not be as fit as he needs to be for seven best of 5 matches.
Rafa in general needs more preparation to have his game in order.
I think he often goes into the tournament with a lot of intensity because he has been off for awhile, but his preparation may not always match that.
By the QF, his fitness is tested.

3. Rafa has many times decided to play exhibitions in the off season, or had some vacation or another and may have lacked preparation. If he has preparation, he does it on his hard court in Manacor, whereas his best ground work is done on the clay where he is the most comfortable.

4. Participation in other tournaments surrounding AO like Abu Dhabi, Doha, Rotterdam all on hard courts. In 2009, after his tough AO title win, why the hell was he in Rotterdam?

One time he avoided all of that was in 2013 when he started on the clay in South America, and had a lot of preparation once he got healthy in late 2012-2013, and look how great he performed in 2013.

Has the AO and other early hc tournaments been worth it? 11 trips there, one title and a couple of finals.
But at what cost? How much has it strained him right at the start of the season?

Now he is 30, he needs to schedule his events very smartly and prepare sufficiently to get the best from himself.

Respectfully,
masterclass


I cant seem to come to any other conclusion general. it has to be the final curtain since he simply refuses to change a single thing.

what exactly is the purpose of being on the hard courts now. he doesn't have the movement for the hard courts now.

he doesn't have the fitness and he has a limited game at best.

furthermore he has not won a title on the hard courts since 2013.

djokovic would have given him exactly zero games today. aside from the fact that djokovic just doesn't lose matches on the hard courts. he is 44-0 this year if he bags the first set.

rafa and his camp also have complained about the game being too fast. well stay the hell away from the quicker courts. at lease until you have fixed your fitness and are certain that you want to find some real traction on the tour.

clay is the wellspring from which he flows. uncle tony says rafa has lost consistency. not exactly a new revelation.

we can see that too. clay alone can breathe new life into his ground game and give him a boost in confidence.

how quickly people forget that it has always been clay that led to his success on other surfaces. he would gain confidence and momentum by trouncing them all on clay and then simply carry that over to other surfaces.

you mentioned 2013: well he did quite well on clay while also sweeping aside djokovic no less than 3 times on clay.

it allowed him to make a little run on the hard courts. he got on a bit of a roll that culminated in the big prize at flushing meadows.


clay can also help him stay healthy. rafa also moves far more naturally on clay than he does on the hard courts.

bottom line: it is clay or nothing.

but if he is done which is what the reality on the ground suggests then he will just linger around until he cant win any matches at all.


more later.
 
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I generally hold the same opinion of Rafa in these times as I do of Fed... both are *probably* over the hump when it comes to winning majors. Both will always be relevant when they are playing, both can beat any given player on any given day... but stringing it all together and winning a major... I don't think it's going to happen.

The longer it takes them the to sail into the sunset the better. Once they are gone, they are gone. I have no issues regarding legacy... the odd glimpse of their former greatness is enough for me. Get rid of the expectations and aspirations and just enjoy watching them while you can - even the Lite version... and start looking out for some of the youngsters coming through.
 
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there is a huge difference:

roger is significantly older and probably is not going to bag a major. he had his best chance this year but long matches were too much. he played 10 sets in his last 2 matches at Wimbledon. that derailed him. he was playing solid tennis.

he is good enough to get back in the saddle on grass. I would not be surprised to see him do well at Wimbledon next year. just need a lot to line up just right there(Wimbledon) to land in the final. but he is trying at least. he has never walked away from the sport and given up.

rafa is significantly younger and is still armed with a massive competitive advantage for clay: topspin. heavy topspin off both wings.

he can still do it but it will take a massive sacrifice. he has to give up everything for tennis for the remainder of this year and next year.

it will take the same work ethic he had in 2008.

the problem with rafa is that he walked away and quit. hence the dramatic decline that he engineered himself. the mountain continues to get steeper and steeper with each passing day.

the game is not standing still but he is. way too much inactivity.



people are free to watch him play as he is something even less than a shell he used to be. I prefer to remember him only as the game's greatest gladiator he used to be.

he lingers around for the spotlight and the money but as I have said, he is on track to amass $1 billion in retirement anyway.

who the hell is interested in watching him come up with one injury after another while doing really nothing about his fitness. all rafa and his camp have these days is lip service of one kind or another. now the game is too fast. others times they say it is so fast that it is boring. rafa is leaving too much on the table. he has a small window but he is going to squander it the same way he squandered the last 3 years.


djokovic wins everything under the sun because he is the fittest athlete on the planet. that is also why he never gets hurt.

roger had a solid year last year while being considerably older because he worked very hard on his fitness. he paid his dues and stayed focused and driven and hungry.
 
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ClayDeath

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rafa admits that he is struggling with fitness. we know that already buster.

more excuses and more lip service. of course we know that rafa.

you run to one vacation after another and then you claim you are not fit. what does wrist injury have to do with fitness?

and then try to play all 3 events in Rio. why even bother with Rio.

should have been home in Mallorca on clay while also working on your fitness daily.

depleted state of fitness and fresh from wrist injury is just asking to snatch another injury if you play all 3 events.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...wn-Olympic-programme/articleshow/53497127.cms
 

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not much is going to happen in Rio. Rafa should be able to get a couple of rounds in doubles and maybe even a couple of rounds in singles.

the gold will go to Andy or Djokovic.

all Rafa is doing here taking a huge risk on a surface he cant win on at all. he has not won a title on hard courts since 2013.

he risks compounding the wrist injury. furthermore you open yourself to additional injuries if you have shaky fitness which he admits he has.

he claims the game is too fast and that players can hit winners from anywhere.

ever heard of clay Rafa?
 

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Rafa producing some resistance.

Removes Simon from the facilities.

I had expected this to be a battle that would go the distance.
 

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Rafa started a bit slow, and Gilles pushed him hard. But Rafa got the first, and pulled away. He's been looking good this week. The backhand was working particularly well.
 

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Rafa started a bit slow, and Gilles pushed him hard. But Rafa got the first, and pulled away. He's been looking good this week. The backhand was working particularly well.


he has to trust the instrument:


in this case his backhand. cant run around backhands to hit forehands all the time. you give up too much court in the process.


controlling the center of the court is key for him. you do that by trusting your backhand and giving it a chance to get in the groove.
 

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He was trusting his BH today. I didn't count, but he had around as many winners on the BH as FH, and he didn't twist himself up to run around the BH. All good signs, I thought.
 

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Can we finally say that it's too early to declare the Fall of Rafael Nadal?
 

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Can we finally say that it's too early to declare the Fall of Rafael Nadal?


negative. the decline is definitive and clear to the objective observers of the sport.


he is a little fired up at the Olympics. I am just glad there are no injuries. I was worried that he may compound the wrist injury.

we will take these wins obviously. maybe this can get his competitive juices flowing again.


it is all good as long as there are no injuries. especially the damn wrist injury which can be recurring and can linger on for a long time.


we need him to arrive healthy and hungry at flushing meadows and go as far as he can.

looks like there is no way to get him off the hard courts.
 
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