The effect of year off on older vs. younger generation

[mrzz]

I got ripped off by a Brazillian on ebay. Plus, Bolsonaro. So, yeah, therefore all Brazilians suck.

Man, the scary part is that how close to a representative sample those two examples are...

 

[Moxie]

Hmm...I think the cut-off would have to be Jannik Sinner, as he's already known and in the top 100. But he's obviously a good bet to charge up the rankings. I also expect FAA to take a another step forward and join Zverev and Tsitsipas as one of the top young guys.

But of players younger than Sinner, a few are worth mentioning. Lorenzo Musetti has some Italians hopeful. He was the #1 Junior and won the 2019 boys AO. I don't know much about his game, but he looks smooth. Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has been mentioned already, I think. He came to attention when he defeated Albert Ramos Vinolas in his first pro match at the age of 16. Isn't he a Nadal school prodigy? Britain's Jack Draper has also been mentioned, and might be primed to start rising up. Both he and Musetti are 18, and Garfia 17.

But it depends upon what we're looking for. Are we talking about the next teenager to "do a Sinner" and jump into the top 100? Those three are worth watching. Or are we talking some lesser known player to make a surprise charge into the top 20? That's anyone's guess. Of "Next Gen," one guy who has quietly made a lot of progress is Caspar Ruud. He seemed to be stagnating just outside of the top 100, and now is up to #36. I don't see him as a future elite, though. I'd put Miomir Kecmanovic in a similar category: a "stealth riser."

I'd also like to mention again Mikael Ymer, who I was very interested in a few years ago but he kind of disappeared for awhile. I think he had injury issues, but am not sure. He's 21 and snuck up to #68. I think he could surprise a lot of folks and become a legit top 20 player. He took Karen Khachanov to a five set tiebreak at the AO this year.

Casper Ruud not so quietly this year, as he won in Argentina and lost in the finals in Chile to "unfortunately" overlooked Thiago Seyboth Wild. I'd say he's a good bet to break out. Looks to be a clay player, to start, anyway. I still haven't got a bead on Kecmanovic's game, but thanks for all of the options to look out for, Dude.

 

[backhandslapper]

Reasonable rest is good for the old guys, BUT if it's way too long, it will be rather detrimental. Past 32-33, your athletic ability goes down fast if inactive. It's also called rust, and it settles in rather quickly and it's harder to put away by a year once you're in the mid-thirties. Regaining great shape is not that easy. Also, at that age, being put away this long increases the risk you'll fall in love with the other aspects of life and don't crave the ATP madness as you used to being a young guy. The good thing is, time runs faster for you, thus the risk of letting yourself go, drinking and eating like a pig out of sheer boredom is probably not that high.

As a young gun, you need to play. You still learn, and what you try in training needs to be tested in the wild, refined if working, abandoned if futile. Continuity is the key. Ideally also, you want the peak of your tennis ability and finesse to coincide with your athletic peak. For guys who are 23 or 24, this hiatus is murderous, for it may mean they will never get as good as they could have no matter how hard they try. The good thing is, getting back in shape is much easier for you than the old dogs and wrecked ships. Times still draaags, thus you're at higher risk of boredom and overindulgence...

 

[Jelenafan]

This situation is uncharted waters because we have neve in our lifetimes had a scenario where ALL the players are taking a 5 month break from tournament play.

What makes coming back from injury so tough (especially older players) is your rejoining a tour with players who are tournament hardened.

What makes younger players bursting out so challenging is veterans used to the day in and day out grind who make the young'uns pay the price their first few years on the tour.

It's the tour itself which is unrelenting, no matter your age, experience or ranking.

Everyone now is starting with a clean slate, physically and mentally. Unprecedented. So who the hell knows what is going to happen.

 

[El Dude]

We just don't know how it will effect players, or whether there will be any correlation with age.

That said, what I think will happen is that players will exhibit a wider range of ability from their previous level. Some will have jumped forward (relative to the field), some back. So prepare for surprises. I woudn't be surprised if one or two of the young 'uns take a big step forward and enter the elite, or quasi-elite; I also wouldn't be surprised if one or two fall back, or one or two old guys look much older.

A lot of this depends upon how they've been training. Quarantine is a funny thing: some get fitter, some fatter; some work on their skills, others take too much of a break. And then there are intangibles, like the fact that sometimes when you take a break, you're actually better at it when you start up again...the skills have been metabolized, so to speak.

We'll see in August.

 

[the AntiPusher]

We just don't know how it will effect players, or whether there will be any correlation with age.

That said, what I think will happen is that players will exhibit a wider range of ability from their previous level. Some will have jumped forward (relative to the field), some back. So prepare for surprises. I woudn't be surprised if one or two of the young 'uns take a big step forward and enter the elite, or quasi-elite; I also wouldn't be surprised if one or two fall back, or one or two old guys look much older.

A lot of this depends upon how they've been training. Quarantine is a funny thing: some get fitter, some fatter; some work on their skills, others take too much of a break. And then there are intangibles, like the fact that sometimes when you take a break, you're actually better at it when you start up again...the skills have been metabolized, so to speak.

We'll see in August.

It’s 3 weeks from August and the person who is playing the best Tennis is Thiem in these limited amount of games format..IMO