The Early French Open Thread

[Kieran]

Allez!

Let's start discussing the elephant in the room, s'il vous plait. We can lump our thoughts regarding Roland Garros 2015 here, for now, if you like.

The latest odds, kindly supplied by TennisFanatic7:

Nole 10/11
Rafa 11/4
Andy 9/1
Kei 18/1
RF 30/1

It was mentioned that Roger's shouldn't be included but I agree with him being there. He knows how to win things, still, and the long odds might prove generous if he gets a handy draw, and maybe Rafa, Novak and Andy all in the one square.

Nole is favourite in the odds because let's face it, he's been greedy this year, everywhere. He's taken a siesta in Madrid, but he's the current benchmark. Everywhere but Paris. For that, the 9 time champ is looking for La Decima, a stupendous and ridiculous mark in the sport. If Rafa wins, he would also have 15 majors, 11 seasons consecutively winning at least one major (an unparalleled consistency), and of course, he has a shot at becoming the only man to ever win a slam six years in a row.

Nole would complete the career slam, and bump himself onto 9 majors in total, while keeping alive hopes of the Holy Grail: the calendar year slam.

Others to watch and expect great things from: Andy, Kei.

Stan might get a decent run, and Berdy should too. What about Nick? He loves the big stage. Will he be the youngest slam winner in 10 years? There's a lot to look forward to...

 

[Fiero425]

The next question should be, what seed will Rafa earn for this French Open? Two years ago he was ranked #5, but due to Andy's early withdrawal, he was spared the ignominious possibility of running into a top player in the QF! It all worked out taking his 8th title! It shouldn't matter who he plays and when along the way, but Nadal's confidence has to be flagging! The other players are starting to feel they have a chance and there are strategies that can be employed if the player has the ability! It's all a matter of confidence; or a lack thereof!

 

[brokenshoelace]

I personally want to know who the Pope thinks will win Roland Garros. I've read somewhere around here that he knows his tennis.

 

[Kirijax]

Murray could be entertaining his own dreams of a career Grand Slam. I think Djokovic would have to to trip up somewhere but after what I saw in Madrid, Murray is now my second choice to take the French Open. And if he does that, you would have to think the four-time runner up would have a great chance to finally win one in Australia and complete his own personal Grand Slam.

But I'm jumping waaaaay ahead of my self aren't I? A Masters title by one of your favorites does crazy things to you.

 

[Fiero425]

Murray could be entertaining his own dreams of a career Grand Slam. I think Djokovic would have to to trip up somewhere but after what I saw in Madrid, Murray is now my second choice to take the French Open. And if he does that, you would have to think the four-time runner up would have a great chance to finally win one in Australia and complete his own personal Grand Slam.

But I'm jumping waaaaay ahead of my self aren't I? A Masters title by one of your favorites does crazy things to you.

Well I'm glad you saw it in time! :eyepop :ras: :angel: :dodgy:

 

[Denis]

I don't think Murray should be favored over Nadal just because Nadal had a bad day in the office today. Nadal is not looking great, but he didn't last year either. Arguably a whole lot worse now, but it's still Nadal and RG.

Agreed that Federer cannot be completely ruled out, but his chances are not very good I'd say.

 

[Sundaymorningguy]

Well Djokovic has to like what he is seeing. However, I also feel Djokovic is one of those players I feel can sometimes see the finish line before he gets there. I feel that has happened to him several times, so I hope he just takes it a step at a time. Things look good for him though, but you never know when the switch will hit in Rafa.

 

[herios]

Nole 10/11
Rafa 11/4
Andy 9/1
Kei 18/1
RF 30/1

Because I am checking very often the odds, I could give you an accurate situation of how the odds have changed after Madrid:

Nole gained very little from 1 to 1 to 10 to 11
Rafa took a hit , from 2 to 1 to 11 to 4
Kei took a hit as well, from 15 to 1 down to 18 to 1
Andy surged, from 25 to 1 to 9 to 1 ( almost unprecedented changed after an event)
Roger took also a hit from 25 to 1 to 30 to 1.

Why would people say Roger should not be listed? a lot worse players are with even worst odds.
The reality is, since I am surveying these stats, for the last 6 years or so, I have never seen such bad numbers for Roger in any slam. That tells the story, and he still is the 5th odds on favorite.

 

[Kieran]

I personally want to know who the Pope thinks will win Roland Garros. I've read somewhere around here that he knows his tennis.

Papa Francesco smiled broadly and said, "del Potro!"

 

[dropshot tom]

There is obviously a huge difference between a Grand Slam and any other ATP tournament. The fact that you have to win 3 sets. If the Madrid Masters Final was a Grand Slam event could Rafa have come back from 2 love down?. Also would either Rafa or Murray have won if Novak was playing?. There are some very good tennis players out there, and like the old saying " every dog has his day".

 

[Denis]

There is obviously a huge difference between a Grand Slam and any other ATP tournament. The fact that you have to win 3 sets. If the Madrid Masters Final was a Grand Slam event could Rafa have come back from 2 love down?. Also would either Rafa or Murray have won if Novak was playing?. There are some very good tennis players out there, and like the old saying " every dog has his day".

Actually, I think the biggest difference for Rafa might be the better weather and court (Madrid) conditions, rather than this best of five set narrative. Sure, it makes a difference, not contesting that. But has Rafa ever even 'lost' a match at RG if it would have been best of three, except for that weird match against Isner?

 

[tented]

But has Rafa ever even 'lost' a match at RG if it would have been best of three, except for that weird match against Isner?

If you mean dropping two out of the first three sets, the answer is no, since there have only been two five-setters -- the weird Isner match, and the Djokovic semi (but Rafa didn't drop 2/3 of the first sets in that one).

 

[Denis]

But has Rafa ever even 'lost' a match at RG if it would have been best of three, except for that weird match against Isner?

If you mean dropping two out of the first three sets, the answer is no, since there have only been two five-setters -- the weird Isner match, and the Djokovic semi (but Rafa didn't drop 2/3 of the first sets in that one).

Well there you go. So even if RG would have been best of three it would have not really mattered that much. Only the Isner match.

So it's not so much the fact that they are playing best of five, but rather they are playing at Roland Garros. It's usually hotter, on real clay, and they play during the day and at sea level. That all helps the spin and Rafa's game.

 

[Moxie]

But has Rafa ever even 'lost' a match at RG if it would have been best of three, except for that weird match against Isner?

If you mean dropping two out of the first three sets, the answer is no, since there have only been two five-setters -- the weird Isner match, and the Djokovic semi (but Rafa didn't drop 2/3 of the first sets in that one).

Well there you go. So even if RG would have been best of three it would have not really mattered that much. Only the Isner match.

So it's not so much the fact that they are playing best of five, but rather they are playing at Roland Garros. It's usually hotter, on real clay, and they play during the day and at sea level. That all helps the spin and Rafa's game.

Gimelstob was explaining another couple of reasons today. One, as we know, is that Chartier is very big, which gives Rafa lots of room to maneuver. Another, he said, is that the court is "bowed." I don't totally understand this, but he said it benefits Nadal, esp. on serve, where Rafa already has an advantage on the out-wide, pulling a righty out, and opening the court. If anyone has any insight into this "bowing" effect and how it helps Nadal, I'd be interested.

Otherwise, I would say that it IS also best of 5 that helps Nadal. (He's 90-1 in BOF on clay for a reason.) And because of the reasons you say: clay, sea level, likelihood of heat, and so he has the chance to wear out all comers, physically (spin, defense, they can only take the pounding for so long,) and psychologically (he just keeps coming back. Even Djokovic has succumbed, to date.)

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

nadal cannot cover the courts any more, he is slow..5 set matches will expose his lethargy even more

and the last thing he needs right now is more room to retreat into. he might lose in the early rounds if he cannot sort himself out.

I see someone not called nadal winning this time round.

 

[Moxie]

nadal cannot cover the courts any more, he is slow..5 set matches will expose his lethargy even more

and the last thing he needs right now is more room to retreat into. he might lose in the early rounds if he cannot sort himself out.

I see someone not called nadal winning this time round.

All good points. But the Magic 8 Ball has been trying to predict that outcome for the last 6 years. That, and the Ouiji board might be right this year. Or, Rafa can find his own Magic back at RG. Signs and tea leaves may say No, but Nadal may yet say Yes......

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

nadal cannot cover the courts any more, he is slow..5 set matches will expose his lethargy even more

and the last thing he needs right now is more room to retreat into. he might lose in the early rounds if he cannot sort himself out.

I see someone not called nadal winning this time round.

All good points. But the Magic 8 Ball has been trying to predict that outcome for the last 6 years. That, and the Ouiji board might be right this year. Or, Rafa can find his own Magic back at RG. Signs and tea leaves may say No, but Nadal may yet say Yes......

that's not relevant, last 6 years?..wut?, rafa has been poor for nearly a year..a prolonged period of feebleness.

hope he sharpens up at least and puts up some decent performances.

 

[Moxie]

nadal cannot cover the courts any more, he is slow..5 set matches will expose his lethargy even more

and the last thing he needs right now is more room to retreat into. he might lose in the early rounds if he cannot sort himself out.

I see someone not called nadal winning this time round.

All good points. But the Magic 8 Ball has been trying to predict that outcome for the last 6 years. That, and the Ouiji board might be right this year. Or, Rafa can find his own Magic back at RG. Signs and tea leaves may say No, but Nadal may yet say Yes......

that's not relevant, last 6 years?..wut?, rafa has been poor for nearly a year..a prolonged period of feebleness.

hope he sharpens up at least and puts up some decent performances.

Not relevant? wut? Rafa may look a bit beleaguered, but he has before. And still won at the French. I hope he sharpens up, too. If he does, everyone but Djokovic is screwed. And even then....

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

All good points. But the Magic 8 Ball has been trying to predict that outcome for the last 6 years. That, and the Ouiji board might be right this year. Or, Rafa can find his own Magic back at RG. Signs and tea leaves may say No, but Nadal may yet say Yes......

that's not relevant, last 6 years?..wut?, rafa has been poor for nearly a year..a prolonged period of feebleness.

hope he sharpens up at least and puts up some decent performances.

Not relevant? wut? Rafa may look a bit beleaguered, but he has before. And still won at the French. I hope he sharpens up, too. If he does, everyone but Djokovic is screwed. And even then....

he hasn't before looked this poor for this long though.

 

[Kirijax]

Not a Nadal fan by any means, but a lot of you are writing him off awfully fast. I agree that he is showing signs of going down, but this is Nadal. The man has won the French Open NINE out of the last TEN YEARS. He just made it to a final of a Masters and got beaten by a happy newly wed who has suddenly found some confidence on clay. I think it would be unwise to write off Nadal until the last point is played and he is sent packing. If he loses before the fourth round, then the fat lady needs to start warming up though. IMO, Nadal is the fourth favorite behind Djokovic, Murray, and Nishikori. If he gets a good draw, we could see him in the final.