The Big 3 - Buying or Selling?

[Moxie]

His points will increase and rankings will improve after RG, as he has almost nothing to defend. But, that should not be misinterpreted to mean that he has a serious chance at winning some important title during the rest of this year.

Despite of not having much to defend past Wimbledon, Rafa might not improve his ranking by much.
He is now 7 both in ATP ranking as well as race to London (results this year).
The second one is more telling, meaning at his current pace, he will stay where he is, unless he is improving.

After RG Rafa will be ranked somewhere between 9 and 16 (most probably somewhere between 9 and 12) and what I am saying is that from there he can climb back to somewhere between 5 and 8 (most probably to #5) by the end of the year.

This is based on a lot of assumptions, is it not? If he wins RG, he holds his own points, and it also depends a lot on how Nishikori, Berdych do and Raonic, if he even plays. Aren't you getting ahead of yourself?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Despite of not having much to defend past Wimbledon, Rafa might not improve his ranking by much.
He is now 7 both in ATP ranking as well as race to London (results this year).
The second one is more telling, meaning at his current pace, he will stay where he is, unless he is improving.

After RG Rafa will be ranked somewhere between 9 and 16 (most probably somewhere between 9 and 12) and what I am saying is that from there he can climb back to somewhere between 5 and 8 (most probably to #5) by the end of the year.

This is based on a lot of assumptions, is it not? If he wins RG, he holds his own points, and it also depends a lot on how Nishikori, Berdych do and Raonic, if he even plays. Aren't you getting ahead of yourself?

Well, forgot to type "expected" somewhere in that sentence.

 

[herios]

Despite of not having much to defend past Wimbledon, Rafa might not improve his ranking by much.
He is now 7 both in ATP ranking as well as race to London (results this year).
The second one is more telling, meaning at his current pace, he will stay where he is, unless he is improving.

After RG Rafa will be ranked somewhere between 9 and 16 (most probably somewhere between 9 and 12) and what I am saying is that from there he can climb back to somewhere between 5 and 8 (most probably to #5) by the end of the year.

This is based on a lot of assumptions, is it not? If he wins RG, he holds his own points, and it also depends a lot on how Nishikori, Berdych do and Raonic, if he even plays. Aren't you getting ahead of yourself?

Even if Rafa wins RG, the best he can get is 6 in ranking. Berdych and Nishikori are out of reach for him at this point, being more than 600 points in front of him.
Raonic leads Rafa by 230 points and defending 360. If he pulls out or loses before R4, Rafa can overtake him if he defends.

 

[Moxie]

After RG Rafa will be ranked somewhere between 9 and 16 (most probably somewhere between 9 and 12) and what I am saying is that from there he can climb back to somewhere between 5 and 8 (most probably to #5) by the end of the year.

This is based on a lot of assumptions, is it not? If he wins RG, he holds his own points, and it also depends a lot on how Nishikori, Berdych do and Raonic, if he even plays. Aren't you getting ahead of yourself?

Well, forgot to type "expected" somewhere in that sentence.

Yes, and probably "hopeful" as well.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

This is based on a lot of assumptions, is it not? If he wins RG, he holds his own points, and it also depends a lot on how Nishikori, Berdych do and Raonic, if he even plays. Aren't you getting ahead of yourself?

Well, forgot to type "expected" somewhere in that sentence.

Yes, and probably "hopeful" as well.

No, not really. Ferrer has only 360 points (a QF). Stan got out in the 1st round of RG last year and so he has nothing to defend. Even if Rafa loses only in the final, he will lose 800 points.

Basically, if Rafa loses RG, he is virtually guaranteed to be thrown out of top 8. Exactly, where he lands would depend on how early he loses.

You can take a look at the live rankings page after this weeks tournaments when they post
the ordering after taking off RG points. Rafa will already be out of top 8 in that.

 

[Kieran]

This is based on a lot of assumptions, is it not? If he wins RG, he holds his own points, and it also depends a lot on how Nishikori, Berdych do and Raonic, if he even plays. Aren't you getting ahead of yourself?

Well, forgot to type "expected" somewhere in that sentence.

Yes, and probably "hopeful" as well.

Exactly. The most honest word for it. I don't mind that, by the way, we've been here before and he'll rise again, like he has before, but the gloating has started a bit earlier this year, than last...

 

[herios]

Also, Herios predicting the death of Fedal will never get old...mainly because he hasn't let it get old for what felt like every year.

I miss the days when you were just that dude who roots for about 16 obscure underdogs, instead of that dude who roots for the underdogs...and Djokovic...in 2011 (but of course camouflaged with "I've always been a Novak fan" claims).

Yes, I have always been a Novak fan, but in 2009-10 I was very disappointed because of his inconsistency.
These days, of course, I am very happy with him.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Well, forgot to type "expected" somewhere in that sentence.

Yes, and probably "hopeful" as well.

Exactly. The most honest word for it. I don't mind that, by the way, we've been here before and he'll rise again, like he has before, but the gloating has started a bit earlier this year, than last...

Unless Rafa wins RG, he is mathematically guaranteed to be thrown out of top 8 after RG.
Exactly where he lands depends on how early he loses and how well others perform. But, going out
of top 8 is guaranteed. Stop living in your fantasy world and get real.

As I said before, even if Rafa reaches final, there will be a loss of 800 points for him. Anyone other than Rafa and Novak (who are the finalists last year), can only lose a maximum of 720 points (SF pays 720). So, even if Rafa reaches the final of RG this year and even if every other top 10 player lose in the very first round, Rafa is guaranteed to be thrown out of top 8, unless he can win RG outright.

 

[Kieran]

As I might have mentioned elsewhere, he won't be "thrown out" of anywhere...

 

[Billie]

As I might have mentioned elsewhere, he won't be "thrown out" of anywhere...

He could drop out or how else you say it? I would use drop out of top 8 if talking about a player not being ranked in the first 8 sports anymore. I am sure there are other ways to say it....

 

[GameSetAndMath]

As I might have mentioned elsewhere, he won't be "thrown out" of anywhere...

He could drop out or how else you say it? I would use drop out of top 8 if talking about a player not being ranked in the first 8 sports anymore. I am sure there are other ways to say it....

Billie, he is not so much objecting to the phrase "thrown out"; He is actually thinking Rafa will raise from ashes like Phoenix and win RG and thus will not be thrown out. Hey, well people are allowed to dream in this forum. Just, let it go.

 

[Kieran]

As I might have mentioned elsewhere, he won't be "thrown out" of anywhere...

He could drop out or how else you say it? I would use drop out of top 8 if talking about a player not being ranked in the first 8 sports anymore. I am sure there are other ways to say it....

Billie, he is not so much objecting to the phrase "thrown out"; He is actually thinking Rafa will raise from ashes like Phoenix and win RG and thus will not be thrown out. Hey, well people are allowed to dream in this forum. Just, let it go.

No, I'm not objecting to anything. I'm highlighting a passage of gloating which runs through your posts. We first saw it when Rafa's back went in the Oz final. Most likely we'd have seen it when he skipped Wimbledon in 2009, if you were around. It's a pattern.

I'm not objecting to it, though, because it's not unexpected, and it won't go away. I'm simply pointing to it...

 

[Billie]

As I might have mentioned elsewhere, he won't be "thrown out" of anywhere...

He could drop out or how else you say it? I would use drop out of top 8 if talking about a player not being ranked in the first 8 sports anymore. I am sure there are other ways to say it....

Billie, he is not so much objecting to the phrase "thrown out"; He is actually thinking Rafa will raise from ashes like Phoenix and win RG and thus will not be thrown out. Hey, well people are allowed to dream in this forum. Just, let it go.

Oh OK, I misunderstood then. I was thinking it was a question of semantics. Got it!