The Big 3 - Buying or Selling?

[tented]

Just to be clear, because some people get terribly dopey when it comes to Rafa (not you, buddy) but he seems physically to have recovered and he's moving well, and occasionally hitting well, but his confidence is low, and this seems the final piece for him. That, and the habit of victory. These may not come back, but I would be less surprised if they do. I remember one year, Pete had won nothing for more than 6 months, then he arrived at Wimbledon and it transformed him. Navratilova was the same, and Rafa is something similar in Paris.

But even if it doesn't happen there, I still think he's too great to be "finished..."

I don't think he's finished (probably has another slam in him), but I don't think he ever has another banner year, and at some point his body won't recover, as a result I find it less likely he makes a huge impact on the second half of the season

Or the first half, based on 2015 thus far. (Ouch! )

The question I'm wondering is whether or not he can finish 2015 without taking months off again. If he can, but still has results like this next year, it's time to start thinking about taking up fishing off Mallorca full time.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Just to be clear, because some people get terribly dopey when it comes to Rafa (not you, buddy) but he seems physically to have recovered and he's moving well, and occasionally hitting well, but his confidence is low, and this seems the final piece for him. That, and the habit of victory. These may not come back, but I would be less surprised if they do. I remember one year, Pete had won nothing for more than 6 months, then he arrived at Wimbledon and it transformed him. Navratilova was the same, and Rafa is something similar in Paris.

But even if it doesn't happen there, I still think he's too great to be "finished..."

I don't think he's finished (probably has another slam in him), but I don't think he ever has another banner year, and at some point his body won't recover, as a result I find it less likely he makes a huge impact on the second half of the season

Or the first half, based on 2015 thus far. (Ouch! )

The question I'm wondering is whether or not he can finish 2015 without taking months off again. If he can, but still has results like this next year, it's time to start thinking about taking up fishing off Mallorca full time.

Rafa will continue to play in the second half of this year (contrary to what people are suggesting he will do, want him to do). His results in the second half will definitely be better than last year's
(as he almost did not play). But, he will not be a major factor in any significant tourney.

However, he is not done. He will work his way back up to relevancy in 2016.

 

[Kieran]

^^ So you're with me, buying the stock now while it's cheap, and getting ready to wave it in people's faces when Rafa returns to his best... :clap

EDIT: we finally found something we agree on!

 

[brokenshoelace]

Few points to defend after RG but he likely won't gain a whole lot of points either going by past seasons!

I know... He never racks up any point in the North American summer or the US Open. Ever. Only won Canada three times, Cinci once, US Open twice as well as reaching the semis multiple times. Never goes deep in the fall. No, he always "sucked" in the fall, meaning he loses semis and finals.

Nadal will gain plenty of points. I've no idea what you're on about. At this level, he won't be winning tournaments though, and that's the real concern.

 

[brokenshoelace]

It would be very odd to see Rafa playing better on HC in the second half od the season than on his "used to be beloved clay".
I am not saying is impossible, but I have hard time picturing it.

That is why for me is a SELL

It's happened before (2013).

Also, here's a prediction: Nadal will play better on hards than he did on clay.

 

[Mile]

It would be very odd to see Rafa playing better on HC in the second half od the season than on his "used to be beloved clay".
I am not saying is impossible, but I have hard time picturing it.

That is why for me is a SELL

It's happened before (2013).

Also, here's a prediction: Nadal will play better on hards than he did on clay.

He is injury prone. Will he be able to sustain one more injury ?

 

[Riotbeard]

It would be very odd to see Rafa playing better on HC in the second half od the season than on his "used to be beloved clay".
I am not saying is impossible, but I have hard time picturing it.

That is why for me is a SELL

It's happened before (2013).

Also, here's a prediction: Nadal will play better on hards than he did on clay.

Of course, but he is usually having an exceptionally good year. His level isn't high enough to be winning clay tournaments right now. He has a long ways to go to be doing well on hards.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Rafa's success in an year is dependent on his success in clay season. If he does not do well in the clay season in an year, I doubt that he will be of serious relevance in the remaining part of that year.

His points will increase and rankings will improve after RG, as he has almost nothing to defend. But, that should not be misinterpreted to mean that he has a serious chance at winning some important title during the rest of this year.

 

[herios]

^ OK, mild exaggeration... I'll refine it to 5 or 6 years... and we met under the clock at tennis.com. You were wearing a "Roger is finished" badge.

I was not wearing it back in 2009 yet. I put it on in 2011, I will recognize that.

 

[herios]

It would be very odd to see Rafa playing better on HC in the second half od the season than on his "used to be beloved clay".
I am not saying is impossible, but I have hard time picturing it.

That is why for me is a SELL

It's happened before (2013).

Also, here's a prediction: Nadal will play better on hards than he did on clay.

Do you seriously think he can replicate a 2013 summer HC season?

 

[brokenshoelace]

It would be very odd to see Rafa playing better on HC in the second half od the season than on his "used to be beloved clay".
I am not saying is impossible, but I have hard time picturing it.

That is why for me is a SELL

It's happened before (2013).

Also, here's a prediction: Nadal will play better on hards than he did on clay.

Do you seriously think he can replicate a 2013 summer HC season?

Did I seriously say that? You said it would be odd to see Nadal play better on hards than he did on clay. I said he's done it before, and I predicted that he will play better (notice I haven't said anything about sweeping every title).

 

[brokenshoelace]

Also, Herios predicting the death of Fedal will never get old...mainly because he hasn't let it get old for what felt like every year.

I miss the days when you were just that dude who roots for about 16 obscure underdogs, instead of that dude who roots for the underdogs...and Djokovic...in 2011 (but of course camouflaged with "I've always been a Novak fan" claims).

 

[herios]

His points will increase and rankings will improve after RG, as he has almost nothing to defend. But, that should not be misinterpreted to mean that he has a serious chance at winning some important title during the rest of this year.

Despite of not having much to defend past Wimbledon, Rafa might not improve his ranking by much.
He is now 7 both in ATP ranking as well as race to London (results this year).
The second one is more telling, meaning at his current pace, he will stay where he is, unless he is improving.

 

[herios]

It's happened before (2013).

Also, here's a prediction: Nadal will play better on hards than he did on clay.

Do you seriously think he can replicate a 2013 summer HC season?

Did I seriously say that? You said it would be odd to see Nadal play better on hards than he did on clay. I said he's done it before, and I predicted that he will play better (notice I haven't said anything about sweeping every title).

If he does his adjustments as he did before, better serving and more aggressive court positioning, chances are he will play better like in the last few months. Will remain to be seen how much better.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

His points will increase and rankings will improve after RG, as he has almost nothing to defend. But, that should not be misinterpreted to mean that he has a serious chance at winning some important title during the rest of this year.

Despite of not having much to defend past Wimbledon, Rafa might not improve his ranking by much.
He is now 7 both in ATP ranking as well as race to London (results this year).
The second one is more telling, meaning at his current pace, he will stay where he is, unless he is improving.

After RG Rafa will be ranked somewhere between 9 and 16 (most probably somewhere between 9 and 12) and what I am saying is that from there he can climb back to somewhere between 5 and 8 (most probably to #5) by the end of the year.

 

[Fiero425]

His points will increase and rankings will improve after RG, as he has almost nothing to defend. But, that should not be misinterpreted to mean that he has a serious chance at winning some important title during the rest of this year.

Despite of not having much to defend past Wimbledon, Rafa might not improve his ranking by much.
He is now 7 both in ATP ranking as well as race to London (results this year).
The second one is more telling, meaning at his current pace, he will stay where he is, unless he is improving.

After RG Rafa will be ranked somewhere between 9 and 16 (most probably somewhere between 9 and 12) and what I am saying is that from there he can climb back to somewhere between 5 and 8 (most probably to #5) by the end of the year.

Rafa may be considered a top 10 player, but the results don't show it! He hasn't won anything of substance since Paris last year; taking only BA a couple months ago since! It has nothing to do with injury so we need to get off this kick that he deserves consideration at FO because of his low seed of #7! If Tomas volunteers to drop a notch to #5; fine, but I don't think he's going to do that! :nono :angel: :dodgy: :cover

 

[Kieran]

His points will increase and rankings will improve after RG, as he has almost nothing to defend. But, that should not be misinterpreted to mean that he has a serious chance at winning some important title during the rest of this year.

Despite of not having much to defend past Wimbledon, Rafa might not improve his ranking by much.
He is now 7 both in ATP ranking as well as race to London (results this year).
The second one is more telling, meaning at his current pace, he will stay where he is, unless he is improving.

After RG Rafa will be ranked somewhere between 9 and 16 (most probably somewhere between 9 and 12) and what I am saying is that from there he can climb back to somewhere between 5 and 8 (most probably to #5) by the end of the year.

Wait! If Rafa wins Paris yet again, he goes down to #16? :cry

 

[Fiero425]

Despite of not having much to defend past Wimbledon, Rafa might not improve his ranking by much.
He is now 7 both in ATP ranking as well as race to London (results this year).
The second one is more telling, meaning at his current pace, he will stay where he is, unless he is improving.

After RG Rafa will be ranked somewhere between 9 and 16 (most probably somewhere between 9 and 12) and what I am saying is that from there he can climb back to somewhere between 5 and 8 (most probably to #5) by the end of the year.

Wait! If Rafa wins Paris yet again, he goes down to #16? :cry

He's going to lose 2000 points from last year so I think the consensus is that he'll drop out of the top 10 if he doesn't win Paris next month! :nono :angel: :dodgy:

 

[Kieran]

Well I'm not sure what "the consensus" is yet, but I see what a lot of peeps hope will happen...

 

[herios]

After RG Rafa will be ranked somewhere between 9 and 16 (most probably somewhere between 9 and 12) and what I am saying is that from there he can climb back to somewhere between 5 and 8 (most probably to #5) by the end of the year.

Wait! If Rafa wins Paris yet again, he goes down to #16? :cry

He's going to lose 2000 points from last year so I think the consensus is that he'll drop out of the top 10 if he doesn't win Paris next month! :nono :angel: :dodgy:

You are over the top, he will not drop 2000, unless he skips RG.