Some Amazing Novak Stats

[Kieran]

That that only happened a tiny bit is one of the great disappointments in modern tennis these past 4 years, and why I think we are in a bit of a power vacuum, not unlike the late 80s when Lendl was still dominating.

There's certainly a power vacuum, but it's more akin to the mid-noughties, when Roger was winning titles similarly unopposed, except for the brave efforts of the child from an island. The way the game is now, the lads we looked at 18 months ago as possibly making a breakthrough - Raonic, Kei, Grigor, Cilic - have disappeared totally this year. Nothing at all from them, and in fact, in certain cases, they've gone back five seasons in their development, to the extent that we can now safely write them off as future prospects. Yes, Grigor, I'm looking at you. Go hang around with Gulbis and JJ, they'll tell you how it feels. :cover

So with only one strong great player, and a weak field, Novak's biggest obstacle right now is himself - and he seems to be both fine and dandy...

 

[El Dude]

Here's another angle on it. I devised a system of "big title shares" for a season in which each Slam was worth 14 points, the WTF worth 8 points, and each of the nine Masters 4 points each - for a total of 100 shares. The idea was to get a sense of how the title shares of a given year were split up by different players.

Right now Novak has 62 shares, tying his 2011 number and equal to Roger's second highest total in 2004. There are 12 shares left in the season, so he will equal Roger's 2006 (66 shares) if he wins Paris and loses the WTF. If he wins the WTF or both he will have the best share season on record, at least going back to Rod Laver in 1969 (it is hard to calculate before the 90s as the tournaments were less organized by tier).

Best seasons by Title Shares, Open Era (1969 - present):

68 Laver, 1969
66 Federer, 2006
62 DJOKOVIC, 2015
62 Djokovic, 2011
62 Federer, 2004
58 Federer, 2007
54 Nadal, 2010
52 McEnroe, 1984
52 Borg, 1979
50 Wilander, 1988
50 Connors, 1974
48 Nadal, 2013
48 Sampras, 1994
48 Lendl, 1986
48 Borg, 1980
44 Federer, 2005
44 Sampras, 1997
44 Lendl, 1987
40 Nadal, 2008

As you can see, the list is dominated by current players (in bold), with Sampras only squeezing in a couple years and Agassi just off the map.

I'll do a fuller post on this when the season is over.

 

[dante1976]

Here's another angle on it. I devised a system of "big title shares" for a season in which each Slam was worth 14 points, the WTF worth 8 points, and each of the nine Masters 4 points each - for a total of 100 shares. The idea was to get a sense of how the title shares of a given year were split up by different players.

Right now Novak has 62 shares, tying his 2011 number and equal to Roger's second highest total in 2004. There are 12 shares left in the season, so he will equal Roger's 2006 (66 shares) if he wins Paris and loses the WTF. If he wins the WTF or both he will have the best share season on record, at least going back to Rod Laver in 1969 (it is hard to calculate before the 90s as the tournaments were less organized by tier).

Best seasons by Title Shares, Open Era (1969 - present):

68 Laver, 1969
66 Federer, 2006
62 DJOKOVIC, 2015
62 Djokovic, 2011
62 Federer, 2004
58 Federer, 2007
54 Nadal, 2010
52 McEnroe, 1984
52 Borg, 1979
50 Wilander, 1988
50 Connors, 1974
48 Nadal, 2013
48 Sampras, 1994
48 Lendl, 1986
48 Borg, 1980
44 Federer, 2005
44 Sampras, 1997
44 Lendl, 1987
40 Nadal, 2008

As you can see, the list is dominated by current players (in bold), with Sampras only squeezing in a couple years and Agassi just off the map.

I'll do a fuller post on this when the season is over.

Nicely done El Dude but... you have to include at least finals too ("just" for consistency/better calculation of greatness because a player, for example, can win 3/4 GS,-5/6 Masters-WTF and lose in 1st/2nd/3rd/4th round of 4th gs/other masters/WTF )
Oh and another interesting "stat"... difference between 1st and 2nd player on Atp list is the same as between 2nd and 70th!!!??? Incredible stuff from Djokos domination

 

[bobvance]

That that only happened a tiny bit is one of the great disappointments in modern tennis these past 4 years, and why I think we are in a bit of a power vacuum, not unlike the late 80s when Lendl was still dominating.

There's certainly a power vacuum, but it's more akin to the mid-noughties, when Roger was winning titles similarly unopposed, except for the brave efforts of the child from an island. The way the game is now, the lads we looked at 18 months ago as possibly making a breakthrough - Raonic, Kei, Grigor, Cilic - have disappeared totally this year. Nothing at all from them, and in fact, in certain cases, they've gone back five seasons in their development, to the extent that we can now safely write them off as future prospects. Yes, Grigor, I'm looking at you. Go hang around with Gulbis and JJ, they'll tell you how it feels. :cover

So with only one strong great player, and a weak field, Novak's biggest obstacle right now is himself - and he seems to be both fine and dandy...

I know you believe the Federer weak-era narrative, but since Federer, at 34, is challenging prime Novak can't we conclude that 04-06 Federer would have had a decent shot to beat him?

Weak era or not Federer was going to get his slams. His level of play was just too good. If anything he had the tremendous misfortune of having to deal with prime Rafa on clay.

 

[El Dude]

I remember when four years ago I predicted Nole would get 10+ slams. :cover The mocking I took for that was unbelievable.

Here we are now. No one can tell the future and no one knows the curves life will throw, but I believe Novak will pass Rafa and at least get close to Roger's haul of 17

It wasn't crazy to predict 10 slams. It was a bit crazy to predict 13-14 given that he was already relatively late in his career. Novak in 2010 was what, 23 years old already?

It was clear that his chief rivals were going to go on the downswing (Federer was well past his prime, Nadal was just at the end of his prime, and would conceivably go down from that point), but as usual in tennis normally the young generation picks it up.

I would have thought Del Potro/Cilic/Murray and a whole group of new players whom I hadn't even conceived of yet would be readily providing competition.

That that only happened a tiny bit is one of the great disappointments in modern tennis these past 4 years, and why I think we are in a bit of a power vacuum, not unlike the late 80s when Lendl was still dominating.

The late 80s a power vacuum? I don't see that at all. If anything you have a prime Lendl, Edberg, and Becker, plus Wilander's best year in 1988. Then you have the rising Agassi, Sampras, Chang, etc, and the last light of Connors and McEnroe. If anything, the late 80s was more densely packed with all-time greats than any other period in the Open Era.

Sent from my HTC6525LVW using Tapatalk

 

[Backhand_DTL]

Another mind-blowing stat... from Shanghai 2014 Novak didn't lose any (that's 0 ) ATP points for whole year!? I am not that good at statistics but I think that no one else achieved that in open era!? Ofc 2016 will be hard as granite to repeat that kind of stat

Players who spent a long time injured certainly also did it, but probably no one who was ranked somewhat highly and played a full schedule in the 52 weeks before.

By winning Paris and the World Tour Finals he would also have defended every title he won in the previous season. I don't know if anyone who had to defend a notable number of big titles (which also were on all surfaces) achieved that before.

 

[nehmeth]

By winning Paris and the World Tour Finals he would also have defended every title he won in the previous season. I don't know if anyone who had to defend a notable number of big titles (which also were on all surfaces) achieved that before.

If he can defend all his Slam titles next year, and win the French, that would be a truly amazing stat! :snicker

 

[Kieran]

By winning Paris and the World Tour Finals he would also have defended every title he won in the previous season. I don't know if anyone who had to defend a notable number of big titles (which also were on all surfaces) achieved that before.

If he can defend all his Slam titles next year, and win the French, that would be a truly amazing stat! :snicker

Or, if he can just win the FO... :snicker

 

[nehmeth]

By winning Paris and the World Tour Finals he would also have defended every title he won in the previous season. I don't know if anyone who had to defend a notable number of big titles (which also were on all surfaces) achieved that before.

If he can defend all his Slam titles next year, and win the French, that would be a truly amazing stat! :snicker

Or, if he can just win the FO...

That would just complete the career Grand Slam. Roger and Ralf have already done that.

 

[stray_cat]

This year, Djokovic beat all 2014 Slam champions:
1. AO - Wawrinka
2. RG - Nadal
3. WB - Federer (2014 finalist)
4. US - Cilic.

 

[Backhand_DTL]

Another mind-blowing stat... from Shanghai 2014 Novak didn't lose any (that's 0 ) ATP points for whole year!? I am not that good at statistics but I think that no one else achieved that in open era!? Ofc 2016 will be hard as granite to repeat that kind of stat

Players who spent a long time injured certainly also did it, but probably no one who was ranked somewhat highly and played a full schedule in the 52 weeks before.

By winning Paris and the World Tour Finals he would also have defended every title he won in the previous season. I don't know if anyone who had to defend a notable number of big titles (which also were on all surfaces) achieved that before.

So while Novak finally failed to defend 200 points by losing to Roger in the Round Robin, he really managed to win all of the tournaments he won 2014 again this year. That's probably the first time someone who is ranked in the Top 10 and had multiple titles to defend achieved that.

 

[Riotbeard]

Here's another angle on it. I devised a system of "big title shares" for a season in which each Slam was worth 14 points, the WTF worth 8 points, and each of the nine Masters 4 points each - for a total of 100 shares. The idea was to get a sense of how the title shares of a given year were split up by different players.

Right now Novak has 62 shares, tying his 2011 number and equal to Roger's second highest total in 2004. There are 12 shares left in the season, so he will equal Roger's 2006 (66 shares) if he wins Paris and loses the WTF. If he wins the WTF or both he will have the best share season on record, at least going back to Rod Laver in 1969 (it is hard to calculate before the 90s as the tournaments were less organized by tier).

Best seasons by Title Shares, Open Era (1969 - present):

68 Laver, 1969
66 Federer, 2006
62 DJOKOVIC, 2015
62 Djokovic, 2011
62 Federer, 2004
58 Federer, 2007
54 Nadal, 2010
52 McEnroe, 1984
52 Borg, 1979
50 Wilander, 1988
50 Connors, 1974
48 Nadal, 2013
48 Sampras, 1994
48 Lendl, 1986
48 Borg, 1980
44 Federer, 2005
44 Sampras, 1997
44 Lendl, 1987
40 Nadal, 2008

As you can see, the list is dominated by current players (in bold), with Sampras only squeezing in a couple years and Agassi just off the map.

I'll do a fuller post on this when the season is over.

Dude, I would love to see this updated!