Shanghai Masters ATP 1000

[Kieran]

It wasn't fatigue, he cracked. We saw the full effect of that on the podium. Even a 13 time slam winner can crack when his arch-nemesis keeps coming at him...

As he did against Del Potro later in the year? "He cracked" when he had won his 14th and 15th slam title?

Different match. Totally different opponent.

...and yet it had exactly the same outcome: Federer looking visibly fatigued in the fifth. Notice the very important similarity?

Same result - not the same match though. remember, Federer has played long matches and not shown any signs of tiredness. He recently played 10 matches in 13 days across two cities - and he's 33. Stamina isn't his issue. And it certainly wasn't the day Rafa made him cry.

Seriously - why was he crying? Because he buckled...

 

[Front242]

It wasn't fatigue, he cracked. We saw the full effect of that on the podium. Even a 13 time slam winner can crack when his arch-nemesis keeps coming at him...

As he did against Del Potro later in the year? "He cracked" when he had won his 14th and 15th slam title?

He made an awful mess of that USO final which I've seen you yourself said you also think he should've won. He did look tired in that 5th set though. Tired of monster FHs flying past him when he should've had it done and dusted well before a 5th set. That was one of the worst loses of his career and no disrespect to Del Potro but Roger really screwed that match up.

 

[Kieran]

By the way, whenever sports fans see things they can't explain, or are disappointed by a performance, they resort to "it's mental." It's the Skip Bayless school of lazy reasoning.

No, the "Skip Bayless school of lazy reasoning" (whoever she is) is most likely to reduce everything to mechanics and say it's a match-up issue. Or fatigue - when he had absolutely no reason to be so tired...

Saying he had no reason to be tired goes beyond the Skip Bayless school of reasoning and verges on the absurd school of reasoning. Because having no reason to be tired after 4 hours of play against Rafael freaking Nadal in scorching heat is indeed, absurd.

Like I said, he played 5 hours with mono in the heat, and two days later he was dandy.

And Rafa was playing in the same heat.

Why would he be getting so tired that even del Potro physically outlasts him, then? The guy is fit as a fiddle..

 

[Front242]

It wasn't fatigue, he cracked. We saw the full effect of that on the podium. Even a 13 time slam winner can crack when his arch-nemesis keeps coming at him...

As he did against Del Potro later in the year? "He cracked" when he had won his 14th and 15th slam title?

Different match. Totally different opponent.

...and yet it had exactly the same outcome: Federer looking visibly fatigued in the fifth. Notice the very important similarity?

Same result - not the same match though. remember, Federer has played long matches and not shown any signs of tiredness. He recently played 10 matches in 13 days across two cities - and he's 33. Stamina isn't his issue. And it certainly wasn't the day Rafa made him cry.

Seriously - why was he crying? Because he buckled...

Exactly. You don't cry for being tired. You cry for inexplicably playing like hor$e$h1t for a whole set.

 

[brokenshoelace]

It wasn't fatigue, he cracked. We saw the full effect of that on the podium. Even a 13 time slam winner can crack when his arch-nemesis keeps coming at him...

As he did against Del Potro later in the year? "He cracked" when he had won his 14th and 15th slam title?

He made an awful mess of that USO final which I've seen you yourself said you also think he should've won.

Absolutely, because he should have finished that match and never allow it to go to a fifth. In the fifth however, he WAS tired, and yeah, having to deal with Del Potro's onslaught surely was a reason, the same way excruciatingly long rallies for 4 sets against Nadal in the Australian heat took a toll on him and he was gassed in the fifth, and I have no problem with someone saying Federer should have won that match before the fifth too.

None of the above negates the fact that come the fifth set in both matches, Federer didn't have much left in the tank.

It's not to downplay the mental aspect. I think the mental aspect did come into play against Nadal in Australia, when Federer blew a lead in the first set, and somehow found a way to lose the third. But am I really supposed to believe that his nerves were SO shaky in the fifth (despite having won the previous set) that he almost literally couldn't find the court anymore?

 

[Front242]

It wasn't fatigue, he cracked. We saw the full effect of that on the podium. Even a 13 time slam winner can crack when his arch-nemesis keeps coming at him...

As he did against Del Potro later in the year? "He cracked" when he had won his 14th and 15th slam title?

He made an awful mess of that USO final which I've seen you yourself said you also think he should've won.

Absolutely, because he should have finished that match and never allow it to go to a fifth. In the fifth however, he WAS tired, and yeah, having to deal with Del Potro's onslaught surely was a reason, the same way excruciatingly long rallies for 4 sets against Nadal in the Australian heat took a toll on him and he was gassed in the fifth, and I have no problem with someone saying Federer should have won that match before the fifth too.

None of the above negates the fact that come the fifth set in both matches, Federer didn't have much left in the tank.

It's not to downplay the mental aspect. I think the mental aspect did come into play against Nadal in Australia, when Federer blew a lead in the first set, and somehow found a way to lose the third. But am I really supposed to believe that his nerves were SO shaky in the fifth (despite having won the previous set) that he almost literally couldn't find the court anymore?

Well 2 years later but yet he wasn't physically tired in that 4th set in the RG 2011 final. He just played crap same as the 5th set of the AO '09 imo. I've seen tired players keep more balls in play than that at the age of 10!

 

[Kieran]

But am I really supposed to believe that his nerves were SO shaky in the fifth (despite having won the previous set) that he almost literally couldn't find the court anymore?

You're missing the point: why did he crack up on the podium if his nerves weren't shredded?

There's no way Federer was so exhausted in the fifth that he just went away. If he was facing Roddick - as he did at Wimbledon a few months later - he'd have held her steady to the death. He buckled because it was Rafa, and he cried after it because of this. That match was clearly won and lost in the head...

 

[brokenshoelace]

It wasn't fatigue, he cracked. We saw the full effect of that on the podium. Even a 13 time slam winner can crack when his arch-nemesis keeps coming at him...

As he did against Del Potro later in the year? "He cracked" when he had won his 14th and 15th slam title?

Different match. Totally different opponent.

...and yet it had exactly the same outcome: Federer looking visibly fatigued in the fifth. Notice the very important similarity?

Same result - not the same match though. remember, Federer has played long matches and not shown any signs of tiredness. He recently played 10 matches in 13 days across two cities - and he's 33. Stamina isn't his issue. And it certainly wasn't the day Rafa made him cry.

Seriously - why was he crying? Because he buckled...

Why was he crying? Because he got close to tying the record and failed, and things looked really bleak back then. He was crying because he lost. And yeah, he was crying because he felt he could have won the match when he blew countless opportunities in the first and third sets. So yeah, I guess he buckled then. But saying using his tears as some evidence that fatigue had nothing to do with it is ridiculous reasoning.

Also, saying he played long matches without being tired before and since is lazy reasoning. Was Nadal not tired against Novak in the 4th set of the FO this year? Even Rafa admitted as much. And yet, he'd played countless far more grueling, longer matches (many of which against the same opponent) and held up just fine.

Things are different from one match to another, one day to another, etc...

What is noticeable is that starting 2009, there has been an obvious decline in Federer's stamina and physicality, and it showed in numerous fifth sets against the absolute elite players. And yeah, there have been other instances where he's held up too... but that's kind of how it is. Nothing is absolute.

 

[Front242]

But am I really supposed to believe that his nerves were SO shaky in the fifth (despite having won the previous set) that he almost literally couldn't find the court anymore?

You're missing the point: why did he crack up on the podium if his nerves weren't shredded?

There's no way Federer was so exhausted in the fifth that he just went away. If he was facing Roddick - as he did at Wimbledon a few months later - he'd have held her steady to the death. He buckled because it was Rafa, and he cried after it because of this. That match was clearly won and lost in the head...

Couldn't have put it better than your last line above.

 

[tented]

It's worth re-watching the fifth set:

[video=youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBn8Lvdn_SY[/video]


Begin around 3:56:10.

 

[brokenshoelace]

But am I really supposed to believe that his nerves were SO shaky in the fifth (despite having won the previous set) that he almost literally couldn't find the court anymore?

You're missing the point: why did he crack up on the podium if his nerves weren't shredded?

There's no way Federer was so exhausted in the fifth that he just went away. If he was facing Roddick - as he did at Wimbledon a few months later - he'd have held her steady to the death. He buckled because it was Rafa, and he cried after it because of this. That match was clearly won and lost in the head...

Again, you're using tears and fatigue as though they're supposed to be mutually exclusive. A lot of players cried without necessarily buckling. They cry because of heartbreaking defeats. I think Federer cried partially because it was Rafa, sure, and partially because he felt he could have won that match before the fifth set, had he taken one of the two he'd lost (and he was in a position to win both). But to say that this somehow negates the fact that he could have been tired in the fifth makes no sense. Why can't it be both?

And please Kieran, I have to keep remind you every time we have a debate, I'm not Mastoor nor Cali. I'm not "missing the point" (your de facto introductory sentence whenever you disagree with someone) -- I'm just flat out disagreeing with said point

 

[brokenshoelace]

It wasn't fatigue, he cracked. We saw the full effect of that on the podium. Even a 13 time slam winner can crack when his arch-nemesis keeps coming at him...

As he did against Del Potro later in the year? "He cracked" when he had won his 14th and 15th slam title?

He made an awful mess of that USO final which I've seen you yourself said you also think he should've won.

Absolutely, because he should have finished that match and never allow it to go to a fifth. In the fifth however, he WAS tired, and yeah, having to deal with Del Potro's onslaught surely was a reason, the same way excruciatingly long rallies for 4 sets against Nadal in the Australian heat took a toll on him and he was gassed in the fifth, and I have no problem with someone saying Federer should have won that match before the fifth too.

None of the above negates the fact that come the fifth set in both matches, Federer didn't have much left in the tank.

It's not to downplay the mental aspect. I think the mental aspect did come into play against Nadal in Australia, when Federer blew a lead in the first set, and somehow found a way to lose the third. But am I really supposed to believe that his nerves were SO shaky in the fifth (despite having won the previous set) that he almost literally couldn't find the court anymore?

Well 2 years later but yet he wasn't physically tired in that 4th set in the RG 2011 final. He just played crap same as the 5th set of the AO '09 imo. I've seen tired players keep more balls in play than that at the age of 10!

I'm sure we can find tons of matches since that AO final in which Federer was tired, and likewise, matches in which he was. There's no point.

 

[Kieran]

Why was he crying? Because he got close to tying the record and failed, and things looked really bleak back then. He was crying because he lost. And yeah, he was crying because he felt he could have won the match when he blew countless opportunities in the first and third sets. So yeah, I guess he buckled then. But saying using his tears as some evidence that fatigue had nothing to do with it is ridiculous reasoning.

Also, saying he played long matches without being tired before and since is lazy reasoning. Was Nadal not tired against Novak in the 4th set of the FO this year? Even Rafa admitted as much. And yet, he'd played countless far more grueling, longer matches (many of which against the same opponent) and held up just fine.

Things are different from one match to another, one day to another, etc...

What is noticeable is that starting 2009, there has been an obvious decline in Federer's stamina and physicality, and it showed in numerous fifth sets against the absolute elite players. And yeah, there have been other instances where he's held up too... but that's kind of how it is. Nothing is absolute.

No buddy, it's lazy reasoning to look at the score of a match against del Potro and a match against Rafa and say the obvious conclusion is that the same thing happened. Even though they're different matches - and one match is against Roger's arch-nemesis who was so deep inside his skull that Federer allegedly spoke Spanish in his sleep, no?

Now, you're closer to it when you suggest he blubbled because history beckoned and Rafa - the fiend - was his opponent. On hards. And he still couldn't beat him.

The dynamic in their relationship is clear. In a big match, Federer knows...and he buckled...

 

[GameSetAndMath]

But am I really supposed to believe that his nerves were SO shaky in the fifth (despite having won the previous set) that he almost literally couldn't find the court anymore?

You're missing the point: why did he crack up on the podium if his nerves weren't shredded?

IMO, the primary reason for crying was due to the fact that he would have tied Pete if he had won that day.

 

[Kieran]

And please Kieran, I have to keep remind you every time we have a debate, I'm not Mastoor nor Cali. I'm not "missing the point" (your de facto introductory sentence whenever you disagree with someone) -- I'm just flat out disagreeing with said point

Good point brother (even if you are :snigger :laydownlaughing :hug )

And you bear in mind: I dunno who Skip Bayleaf is - or where his school is situated...

 

[brokenshoelace]

Why was he crying? Because he got close to tying the record and failed, and things looked really bleak back then. He was crying because he lost. And yeah, he was crying because he felt he could have won the match when he blew countless opportunities in the first and third sets. So yeah, I guess he buckled then. But saying using his tears as some evidence that fatigue had nothing to do with it is ridiculous reasoning.

Also, saying he played long matches without being tired before and since is lazy reasoning. Was Nadal not tired against Novak in the 4th set of the FO this year? Even Rafa admitted as much. And yet, he'd played countless far more grueling, longer matches (many of which against the same opponent) and held up just fine.

Things are different from one match to another, one day to another, etc...

What is noticeable is that starting 2009, there has been an obvious decline in Federer's stamina and physicality, and it showed in numerous fifth sets against the absolute elite players. And yeah, there have been other instances where he's held up too... but that's kind of how it is. Nothing is absolute.

No buddy, it's lazy reasoning to look at the score of a match against del Potro and a match against Rafa and say the obvious conclusion is that the same thing happened.

That's not lazy. That's another example in a pretty noticeable trend since 2009, which was the first year Federer started showing signs of visible PHYSICAL decline. In 2008, his level dropped, but he seldom looked weary or tired. 2009 was the first year in which this started happening, and it's normal. It's actually easy to tell when Federer is tired once you pay attention to the body language. What's also not lazy is I specifically mentioned the poor footwork and the shanks, particularly from the backhand side. This is a specific element in his game I'm discussing, and not some armchair psychiatry analysis.

 

[brokenshoelace]

And you bear in mind: I dunno who Skip Bayleaf

Consider yourself very lucky.

 

[DarthFed]

^ So you think Rafa definitely wins AO 2009 if he hadn't won Wimbledon 2008? I think that final both accelerated Rafa's rise and possibly even Fed's decline. But of course it is speculation and meaningless speculation at that. But I think that's the most important failure on Roger's part in the "rivalry" Not to mention he would've had 6 straight and gotten 7 straight if everything stayed the same.

Roger was really gassed in that fifth set at the AO. I really don't subscribe to the theory that he just mentally fell apart. Roger generally loses the big points against Nadal, yes. But that set had no big points to begin with. It was just Federer being awful, and he had the momentum on his side after winning the fourth. He was visibly tired, otherwise the fifth would have been at least closer, but with Roger failing in key moments, as opposed to him shanking shots left and right.

So while Nadal beating him so many times in a row, including the Wimbledon final certainly played a factor, I don't think that Roger winning Wimbledon in 2008 would have necessarily gave him the energy needed to compete in the fifth set against Rafa in their AO final. Though you could argue that he might have won the match before it even got to a fifth, but then we're REALLY speculating.

That fatigue excuse is always lame and didn't apply at all to AO 2009. It was something like 1-2 and 30-0 when Roger missed a routine forehand winner down the line ended up getting broken and then barely put another ball in play. The wheels came off likely because Wimbledon 08 and other losses were in his head. He had even more momentum going into the 5th set there, on grass, and he still didn't get anything done. And then there is also the part where his serve completely deserted him the entire match Probably nerves? Would they still be there if he had won in 2008?

Yeah, no you're right. The fatigue excuse is lame. But a then 13 time slam winner and a season veteran completely falling apart for the first (and only) time in his career to the point where virtually not a single shot was landing in, in the fifth set despite having the momentum no less, is far less lame and more logical. Yes, Roger couldn't control his nerves so much that he just couldn't find the court anymore. Sure, man.

Pay attention to Roger's poor footwork leading up to many backhand misses in that fifth set, and you'll know what I mean.

Uhh, the guy has lost tons of 5th sets and a few of them in lopsided fashion the past 5-6 years. Did he also suddenly get fatigued against Djokovic at the USO 2 straight years? It's pretty obvious that he simply doesn't handle the do or die moments well. There is one enormous stat to back that up, 3-8 in 5th sets in the semis and finals of majors. And add to that Rafa had beaten him 5 straight including the gut wrenching Wimbledon final and it is much easier to believe that he buckled mentally when it came time to win or lose.

 

[Kieran]

That's not lazy. That's another example in a pretty noticeable trend since 2009, which was the first year Federer started showing signs of visible PHYSICAL decline. In 2008, his level dropped, but he seldom looked weary or tired. 2009 was the first year in which this started happening, and it's normal. It's actually easy to tell when Federer is tired once you pay attention to the body language. What's also not lazy is I specifically mentioned the poor footwork and the shanks, particularly from the backhand side. This is a specific element in his game I'm discussing, and not some armchair psychiatry analysis.

Hey, you're not talking to Mastoor here.

It's not amateur psychiatry. Footwork is another thing affected by nerves. But has Federer always become exhausted when presented with a long match - even since the beginning of 2009? Of course not.

Is he always affected in a major when it's Rafa Nadal over the other side of the net?

Of course he is...

 

[Kieran]

Did he also suddenly get fatigued against Djokovic at the USO 2 straight years? It's pretty obvious that he simply doesn't handle the do or die moments well. There is one enormous stat to back that up, 3-8 in 5th sets in the semis and finals of majors. And add to that Rafa had beaten him 5 straight including the gut wrenching Wimbledon final and it is much easier to believe that he buckled mentally when it came time to win or lose.

Bingo...