Roland Garros / French Open 2023 [Men] - Grand Slam

[MargaretMcAleer]

Well, that implies draw fixing. Or you have ESP.

I have ESP, lol!.....just going on their ranking that is all, just an observation, not set in stone yet

 

[tented]

RG is wide-open, but that also means that I don't have a huge amount of confidence in Novak. He just doesn't seem himself, and it is a quality that speaks of age-related decline. I think he's more than capable of winning another Slam, maybe two, but RG would be the hardest for him, at this point (imo). In a way he reminds me of latter-day Roger or Rafa off clay, where he's still a/the guy to beat, but it doesn't seem a foregone conclusion.

But this also makes this tournament interesting. I see Alcaraz as the favorite, but there's not a huge gap between him and a few other players, and there's also more of a chance of a surprise winner.

I tend to agree with you, however I’m not completely sure about guys like Alcaraz and Rune being physically reliable to go all the way — even though the Spaniard did it in New York. Novak hasn’t been on fire this clay season, of course, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t capable of showing up in Paris and winning, perhaps easily. He has the mental and physical stamina to do it, whereas the others aren’t such sure bets. He doesn’t have The Aura about him he used to have, but he‘s still the guy who knows more than anyone else who will be there how to win a major.

 

[tented]

My personal rankings in terms of likelihood of winning RG would be:

1. Alcaraz
2. Djokovic
3. Medvedev
4. Rune
5. Tsitsipas
6. Ruud
7. Everyone else

I would put Everyone Else above Tsitsipas and Ruud.

 

[Moxie]

I'm trolling this thread for hints on my draw challenge, when the draw comes out.

Draw Challenge

Pit your wits against fellow members on predicting tennis draws.

www.tennisfrontier.com

Do play!

So, I see some lists of favorites. Margaret has got her mojo working on Novak being drawn to Charlie's half. (She won't say she wants that to happen, but I will! And hey, if @kskate has a good crystal ball for predictions, why not Margaret? No match-fixing!)

Curious to know if anyone sees a potential dark horse, and especially who you see as the potential spoilers/dangerous floaters. I think Margaret listed the winners of clay tune-ups, which is a good place to start.

Rublev won MC, def. Rune, and Rublev seems not to be in the conversation. Lajovic won Banja Luka, so he must be a dark horse, or surely a spoiler to look out for. Frances Tiafoe won Houston on clay, so he should be dangerous, early rounds. Roberto Carballes Baena won Marrakech.

 

[El Dude]

I'm trolling this thread for hints on my draw challenge, when the draw comes out.

Draw Challenge

Pit your wits against fellow members on predicting tennis draws.

www.tennisfrontier.com

Do play!

So, I see some lists of favorites. Margaret has got her mojo working on Novak being drawn to Charlie's half. (She won't say she wants that to happen, but I will! And hey, if @kskate has a good crystal ball for predictions, why not Margaret? No match-fixing!)

Curious to know if anyone sees a potential dark horse, and especially who you see as the potential spoilers/dangerous floaters. I think Margaret listed the winners of clay tune-ups, which is a good place to start.

Rublev won MC, def. Rune, and Rublev seems not to be in the conversation. Lajovic won Banja Luka, so he must be a dark horse, or surely a spoiler to look out for. Frances Tiafoe won Houston on clay, so he should be dangerous, early rounds. Roberto Carballes Baena won Marrakech.

I hesitated on Rublev - possibly putting him above Ruud - but ended up including him in "everything else," mainly because he's never made it past a Slam QF. I have a feeling he'll do well, but hard to see him going all the way. Would love to see it, though.

I still think FAA is going to surprise us one of these days, but don't think it will be at RG.

 

[Moxie]

I hesitated on Rublev - possibly putting him above Ruud - but ended up including him in "everything else," mainly because he's never made it past a Slam QF. I have a feeling he'll do well, but hard to see him going all the way. Would love to see it, though.

I still think FAA is going to surprise us one of these days, but don't think it will be at RG.

Honestly, I'm not camp Rublev. Nothing against him, but he's a spoiler, at best.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I am going to add Borna Coric as a spoiler,
Dangerous players Jan Leonard Struff and Francisco Cerundolo ( the dangerous one)
I am also going to include Zverev, he has made the QFs at Geneva today ( former Geneva champ in 2019)

 

[Moxie]

Hammy is old news, elbow is a new thing

Novak barely won a few matches on clay this year and showed very little of good play, so it is something to worry about. I don't know what to expect from him, something tells that he won't bag this FO. Players are not bending over to him anymore (except the greek), young guys like Rune and Alcaraz are certainly not afraid and they smell the blood, they see he is beatable. Now they "only" need to prove it on a slam.

My guess is that Novak beats Rune in RG if they meet, but Alcaraz and Medvedev are going to be a difficult task. Both can stay with Novak for 4-5 hours if needed.

RG is wide-open, but that also means that I don't have a huge amount of confidence in Novak. He just doesn't seem himself, and it is a quality that speaks of age-related decline. I think he's more than capable of winning another Slam, maybe two, but RG would be the hardest for him, at this point (imo). In a way he reminds me of latter-day Roger or Rafa off clay, where he's still a/the guy to beat, but it doesn't seem a foregone conclusion.

But this also makes this tournament interesting. I see Alcaraz as the favorite, but there's not a huge gap between him and a few other players, and there's also more of a chance of a surprise winner.

I'm quoting both of these posts, because they are interesting, and because Don Fabio is hoping for a Novak win, and El Dude is agnostic, I think.

The elbow is an issue. As is Novak's meek showing in the clay season, to date.

As to El Dude's point, I do think age-related is an issue. It's not just fitness, but the stress of the window closing, as when he couldn't seal the deal on the USO for the CYGS. Or when Roger couldn't close on Wimbledon, in 2019. Or when Rafa was full of nerves facing Medvedev, in the 2019 USO.

I still see Novak as the favorite, but not by a lot. And I think he's vulnerable early. It will be interesting to see what his draw is like.

If you think there could be a surprise winner, who do you think that might be?

 

[Nadalfan2013]

My 2 cents on Djokovic:

 

[Chris Koziarz]

Without Nadal, this FO is not FO we used to watch nor the one we wanted.

 

[Chris Koziarz]

My 2 cents on Djokovic:

View attachment 8196

I share you sentiment yet I stop short of such messages insulting fans who like him. It's understandable that someone may like Joker (far more than say liking the Idiot-in-Chief, so called 45th POTUS') still, I hope in absence of Nadal, someone stops Joker in this tournament.

 

[El Dude]

El Dude is agnostic

Pretty much. All things being equal (that is, Roger not in the mix), I tend to root for new Slam winners, whoever they may be. I do feel an inkling of growing Holger allegiance, though, if only because I enjoy watching him play and his spirit. He's a lot of fun (and really talented). But his time will come, and I'd kind of like someone like Rublev or even Tsitsipas to win a Slam. But I'd be very surprised if it didn't go to Novak, Alcaraz, or Medvedev, with Rune being the darkhorse.

As to El Dude's point, I do think age-related is an issue. It's not just fitness, but the stress of the window closing, as when he couldn't seal the deal on the USO for the CYGS. Or when Roger couldn't close on Wimbledon, in 2019. Or when Rafa was full of nerves facing Medvedev, in the 2019 USO.

I still see Novak as the favorite, but not by a lot. And I think he's vulnerable early. It will be interesting to see what his draw is like.

This is all well said - I think you're right. It might be that Rafa being gone will make him more prone to an upset, as every Slam is an opportunity to probably take the Slam lead for good. In a way, though, RG is his best opportunity, as more players are dangerous potential spoilers at Wimbledon, and US Open always seems dicey.

My surprise pick would be Rune if he counts. Or Rublev, or how about an epiphany-ed Tsitsipas (yeah, right). Outside the top 10...man, who knows. Ignoring Zverev, Davidovich Fokina? He's obviously a very distant darkhorse.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

This is table with Best Preformed Men During Spring Clay Season ( does not include ATP events in Lyon or Geneva)

Alcaraz 93.2% win/loss record 12-1
Medvedev 83.3% win/loss record 10-2
Rune 81.3% win/loss record 13-3
Rublev 80% win/loss record 12-3
Sinner 77.8% win/loss record 7-2
Tsitsipas 76.5% win/loss record 13-5
Roberto Carballes Baena 72.7% win/loss record 8-3
Alexandre Muller 71.4% win/loss record 5-2
Casper Ruud 71-4% win/loss record 10-4
Dusan Lajovic 70% win/loss record 7-3

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Roland Garros Update,
OUT: Garin
IN: LL

 

[roberto]

A lot of interesting viewpoints above...I don't have much faith in Novak given his clay season--and although he probably doesn't look at this way---losing relatively early will let him practice/make a big push on grass which is his best chance for a second slam in '23. I don't think Alcaraz's early loss in Rome means anything but a good rest for Paris, and put him as a pretty clear favorite, with a bunch of others including Rune, Medvedev, and some darker horses picking up the slack....

 

[Jelenafan]

I hesitated on Rublev - possibly putting him above Ruud - but ended up including him in "everything else," mainly because he's never made it past a Slam QF. I have a feeling he'll do well, but hard to see him going all the way. Would love to see it, though.

I still think FAA is going to surprise us one of these days, but don't think it will be at RG.

ElDude it seems that since the first time you've been touting Felix's horn....

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

A streak for Novak Djokovic at RG, who has made the QFs or better 13 years in a row
I still would not dismiss his chances at RG this year.

 

[lomaha]

Interesting draw... maybe a new nordic encounter in the QF...

 

[tented]

I’ve added the draw.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

What an unbalanced draw, with Alcaraz, Tsitsipas, and Djokovic all in the top half. That said, I still like Alcaraz to win the French Open. Also, look for Davidovich Fokina to pull the upset of Djokovic early.

That bottom half of the draw is wide open. This is a huge opportunity for someone. Is this Medvedev's Sampras 96 FO run? Does Jannik Sinner or Holger Rune break through? Or is this Dominic Thiem's Goran Ivanisevic 2001 Wimbledon run?