Roland Garros: Early Thoughts

[10isfan]

Tented, a month ago, I would have picked Halep to lose to Pova in the final. Given her recent performance, I think it is more likely she loses in the semi. I was surprised to see her stats against Carla. Forty unforced errors from her is alarming. She has to recalibrate her game and find that optimal balance of being aggressive without giving away points. I do hope she can win FO next year. It is more interesting when small players have a shot at the majors.

 

[sk310]

I think Halep will have a hard time defending finalist points from last year. She didn't make it to the final of any clay warm-up this year. She really needed to secure that #2 seed so she could have a chance at making it to the final. Now she will have to face either Serena or Maria just to get to the final and she doesn't have much confidence from her play to help push her over the edge in a close match.

I agree with you. Although she may benefit from the pressure dying down a bit after her good results earlier this year. Sometimes its easier to go in under the radar. Also theres a very good chance either Maria or Serena will bow out before the SFs. It's easy to imagine a scenario where Maria gets knocked out in the first week and I'm not quite sure where Serena is physically or mentally as I think she's focusing more on Wimbledon/USO.

That's the big question: Will either or both even get to the SFs?

If Halep is in Serena's half, and they both get to the SF, Halep's Parisian dreams are done.

If Halep is in Maria's half, and they both get to the SF, chances are Maria will win, but I'd give Halep a better shot against her than Serena.

If Serena and Maria are both out before the SFs, Halep has a much better chance at making it to the final. Her biggest problems at that point would be herself (she can freeze in big moments), and/or running into, say, Azarenka -- a dangerous, low-seeded player.

I think that kind of is the interesting question going into RG. Will both, one, or neither Serena or Maria live up to their seeding? We all know Maria ramps up her game if she knows she doesn't have to face Serena. So if Serena loses in the first week, I'd expect to see Maria in the final. I think if she makes it as far as the SFs and she faces Halep, Maria will win that match. If anyone is going to knock out Maria it'll be Serena or a completely unexpected player. As for Serena, we all know it's on her racquet.

 

[10isfan]

Reading these scenarios, I guess people agree with me. Serena is the only player who can reasonably be expected to beat Pova. I would bet Serena does not make the final. I don't even agree that outcomes are on her racket. Not on clay. The surface makes her play in a way that is counter to the way she likes to play. If Serena meets Cornet, that might be the end of the road. Let's hope Cornet is not in her half. Anxious to see the draw tomorrow morning.

 

[Moose]

Cornet? Interesting.

If I am Serena, the two out of the Top 10 seeds I'd hoping don't land anywhere near me are Muguruza and Kerber. Garbine embarassed Serena at the French last year, and while Serena is very good at revenge matches, I think Garbine plays unafraid, and has the kind of clay game that troubles Serena.

Kerber, sure she's only got one career win against Serena, but she's playing as well on clay as almost anyone this season.

 

[10isfan]

Cornet troubles Serena because she drop shots and brings her to net. Serena does not like to play net which is typical for power players.

One player that baffles me is Giorgi. How did she grow up in Italy and develop that kind of game? Very weird.

Mugu does not seem mentally ready to beat top players consistently. Lacking killer instinct?

 

[sk310]

Reading these scenarios, I guess people agree with me. Serena is the only player who can reasonably be expected to beat Pova. I would bet Serena does not make the final. I don't even agree that outcomes are on her racket. Not on clay. The surface makes her play in a way that is counter to the way she likes to play. If Serena meets Cornet, that might be the end of the road. Let's hope Cornet is not in her half. Anxious to see the draw tomorrow morning.

Most of the time almost anyone can beat Maria. When she's peaking like she is right now I would say the only person that can beat her is Serena or a complete unknown out of nowhere in a REALLY early round.

 

[pavlik89]

[video=youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nws02RtHctY[/video]

 

[Sundaymorningguy]

Serena has a very doable draw. she has players who can test her like Azarenka and Venus in her quarter, but she should be able to make the QF at least.

 

[sk310]

Maria doesn't face a difficult opponent until the QFs when she could face Suarez Navarro or Kerber. By not difficult I mean it should be an absolute cake walk to the QFs. Lucky draw opening up for her to win her first defended title, even year slam, and consecutive year slam. If she doesn't make the finals its only her own fault.

 

[sk310]

Halep doesn't have a very difficult path to the SFs. I expect to see her there. I really don't see any surging clay courter in her quarter.

 

[sk310]

The top half is a whole lot more loaded. Vika, Serena, and Venus all in each other's paths before the QFs. Woz has a nice path to the QFs with only Petkovic or Errani in the way. Also a nice path for Kvitova on the bottom part of the top half.

 

[10isfan]

Halep has a good draw. Serena has the toughest quarter. Don't overlook Daria in Pova's quarter.

 

[kskate2]

The draw:

http://www.rolandgarros.com/en_FR/draws/index.html?event=WS

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Serena has a very doable draw. she has players who can test her like Azarenka and Venus in her quarter, but she should be able to make the QF at least.

Serena has a tough draw. Azrenka in Round 3, Venus in Round 4, Caroline in QF and Halep in F.
Only her first two rounds and the SF are reasonable.

The second quarter seems very weak.

 

[Calvy]

Always tickles me when people write, "Serena has a tough draw!"

Makes me wonder who is number 1, and who are the challengers. I would argue, Vika, Venus and Caroline have the tougher draw because Serena is in it, not the other way around.

 

[tossip]

poor Azarenka 16-3

 

[sk310]

Always tickles me when people write, "Serena has a tough draw!"

Makes me wonder who is number 1, and who are the challengers. I would argue, Vika, Venus and Caroline have the tougher draw because Serena is in it, not the other way around.

LOL good point!

 

[10isfan]

Woz has had such bad luck with draws this year. I am not happy that she and Vika are near Serena. Any updates on Serena's elbow?

This will be an interesting tournament. Hoping Serena wins another major, but not expecting it. Can anyone stop Pova? Will Daria be the silencer this year?

 

[Sundaymorningguy]

Yeah but all of the people on Serena's side of the draw are no better than her on clay, so that is why I am saying she has a doable draw. I mean Serena has 2 FO trophies all the people you mentioned have 0 FO trophies and have meh clay records, so in theory, Serena should do well. At least, she will take her side seriously with all of the tests.

All of the players that have beaten Serena/have proven tricky for her within the past year or so landed on the Halep/Sharapova side like Kuzzy, Stosur, Muguruza, Cornet. I think Serena landed a draw pretty much where she knows what to expect from players like Azarenka, Venus and Wozniacki.

Interesting that Sam Stosur is surging on clay right now, and she landed on the Maria side of things.

 

[sk310]

Woz has had such bad luck with draws this year. I am not happy that she and Vika are near Serena. Any updates on Serena's elbow?

This will be an interesting tournament. Hoping Serena wins another major, but not expecting it. Can anyone stop Pova? Will Daria be the silencer this year?

At least in the last few years the times Maria has been in the best situations to win a slam she doesn't win. I think she does better when nobody expects her to win.