Roger's Quest for #1 (and Rafa's QF exit implications)

[El Dude]

Rafa going out in the QF could have possible implications for the #1 ranking, and gives Roger a better chance of attaining it.

Right now the points are:
Rafa 9760
Roger 7965

If Roger wins the Australian Open, he's up to 9605 - just 155 points behind Rafa. Even if he loses in the Final, he's down less than a thousand points (955), but probably needs to win it to have a shot at #1 before clay season.

Upcoming points to come off:
Roger: 45 at Dubai, 1000 at IW, 1000 at Miami
Rafa: 300 at Acapulco, 90 at IW, 600 at Miami

There are a few ways that Roger could get those needed +160 points:

1) Play Rotterdam. If he even just makes the final, he's #1.

2) Out-play Rafa by 160 points at Dubai/Acapulco.

Of course then there's the Sunshine double points, and unless he does really well and Rafa is out, Rafa will probably reclaim #1.

Roger will have another chance during clay season, if he chooses to play even a tournament or two. Unless Rafa does as well as last year, it is a good chance to retake #1.

Of course all of this is contingent upon him winning the AO, which is far from a foregone conclusion. Even if he makes the final, though, he has a chance to be #1 at some point - but he really needs to make that final to do so.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Feddies beware. Don't count your chicken before they hatch.

We had a similar situation in 2017 WTF. Fed won his group. All that he needed was to win two more
matches against players whom he practically owned, but he could not deliver for whatever reason.

Although, I do think he will get it done this time, it ain't over until the fat lady sings. He needs to
win against Berdych (who has won against Fed in big stages before such as Olympics, Wimby and USO),
possibly against Chung (who is almost playing like peak Novak now) and possibly against Cilic (who
played lights out at USO, when the common belief at that time was it was automatic for Fed to win the event).

But, I do hope Fed realizes the great opportunity here and does not let it go.

 

[Federberg]

Feddies beware. Don't count your chicken before they hatch.

We had a similar situation in 2017 WTF. Fed won his group. All that he needed was to win two more
matches against players whom he practically owned, but he could not deliver for whatever reason.

Although, I do think he will get it done this time, it ain't over until the fat lady sings. He needs to
win against Berdych (who has won against Fed in big stages before such as Olympics, Wimby and USO),
possibly against Chung (who is almost playing like peak Novak now) and possibly against Cilic (who
played lights out at USO, when the common belief at that time was it was automatic for Fed to win the event).

But, I do hope Fed realizes the great opportunity here and does not let it go.

I with you mate. Which is why I was strangely discombobulated by Rafa's loss today. Somehow I feel that Roger's more likely to bring his A game if Rafa was still around. Now I'm worried he might relax!

 

[El Dude]

Yes, it does seem that Fed has a tendency to loosen up too much when the path should be easier. But it is hard to say whether that is just selective memory from a few bad experiences, or his MO.

After skimming through 20 pages of comments in the Cilic-Rafa thread, I am reminded of how short-sighted we tennis fans (well, people) tend to be. I can't tell you how many times in that thread someone, including me, said something like "That's it, Cilic is toast" or "No way he comes back form this." Etc. Our perception becomes skewed in the heat of the moment, and sometimes this sticks over time.

Hopefully Roger remembers clearly the times he has taken his foot off the gas and lost because of it. He rally shouldn't have a problem with this path:

Berdych (19-6) ----> Chung / Sandgren ----> Cilic (8-1)/Edmund

Two guys who he has basically owned, and three unseeded players.

 

[mrzz]

possibly against Chung (who is almost playing like peak Novak now)

Little bit of an exaggeration, or have I lost some irony?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Little bit of an exaggeration, or have I lost some irony?

No irony, just exaggeration.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

One more thing to remember. Roger's half is playing second. So, assuming Roger reaches the final, his opponent (whoever it may be) will have two days rest whereas the old man will have only one day rest.

 

[Moxie]

One more thing to remember. Roger's half is playing second. So, assuming Roger reaches the final, his opponent (whoever it may be) will have two days rest whereas the old man will have only one day rest.

Speaking of irony, part of me almost hopes Roger plays a tough semi, makes the final, and the Fed fans get to complain about the weird Oz scheduling this year.

 

[Moxie]

Yes, it does seem that Fed has a tendency to loosen up too much when the path should be easier. But it is hard to say whether that is just selective memory from a few bad experiences, or his MO.

After skimming through 20 pages of comments in the Cilic-Rafa thread, I am reminded of how short-sighted we tennis fans (well, people) tend to be. I can't tell you how many times in that thread someone, including me, said something like "That's it, Cilic is toast" or "No way he comes back form this." Etc. Our perception becomes skewed in the heat of the moment, and sometimes this sticks over time.

Hopefully Roger remembers clearly the times he has taken his foot off the gas and lost because of it. He rally shouldn't have a problem with this path:

Berdych (19-6) ----> Chung / Sandgren ----> Cilic (8-1)/Edmund

Two guys who he has basically owned, and three unseeded players.

Don't forget about RG '09, when he saw his opportunity and took it. He tightened up a bit, at first, but made good.

Now, as to your OP: I wonder why you are so in favor, or would even mention Roger adding to his schedule in a quest for #1. Wasn't there a lot of complaining that said quest got him to play Montreal and cost him later? He's got more weeks at #1 already. Do you really think he should shoot for it? Or would you prefer if he just take it when/if it comes? I'm sincerely asking.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I am in favor of Roger playing Rotterdam, but not by way of adding to his schedule but as a substitute for Miami.
This will help him as playing Dubai, IW and Miami would mean five consecutive weeks of play (too much at
this age). The #1 ranking is just a useful byproduct if it happens.

 

[Moxie]

Interesting thought that he play Rotterdam and skip Miami. He concedes at least 500 points, but he breaks up his schedule, and, as a bonus, depending on how he does in Oz and there, he could block Rafa from passing McEnroe on the weeks at #1 all-time list, at least temporarily.

 

[crystalfire]

i really dont think he cares as much for #1 as he does for slams and maybe masters at this point in his career. Being #1 is just a bonus

 

[Moxie]

i really dont think he cares as much for #1 as he does for slams and maybe masters at this point in his career. Being #1 is just a bonus

I would completely imagine that's what he's thinking. Or Mirka will give him a dope-slap upside the head. Wondering what folks are thinking of the over-under on his clay season ambitions.

 

[El Dude]

Don't forget about RG '09, when he saw his opportunity and took it. He tightened up a bit, at first, but made good.

Now, as to your OP: I wonder why you are so in favor, or would even mention Roger adding to his schedule in a quest for #1. Wasn't there a lot of complaining that said quest got him to play Montreal and cost him later? He's got more weeks at #1 already. Do you really think he should shoot for it? Or would you prefer if he just take it when/if it comes? I'm sincerely asking.

I mostly mention it because it is a real possibility that he becomes #1, especially if he wins the AO. So on one level, it is just interesting and somewhat exciting.

On the other, I do somewhat love the idea because it would be quite an accomplishment to reach #1 at age 36 - a full three years older than the next oldest (Agassi, age 33). It is the type of statistical feat that I love seeing happen as a fan of the game, whether it is Roger or someone else (although preferably Roger .

Now does Roger care? Who knows? My guess is he does a bit, but as you say, not as much as (in order): Slams, titles (to reach 100+), and Masters. But why wouldn't he want to be #1 again?

As for whether I think he should shoot for it - only if it doesn't reduce his chances for his other goals, especially Slams. Personally, I'd like to see him go for it because I don't think he has a real shot at Roland Garros (unless Rafa's injured), so he's got plenty of time to recover and prepare for Wimbledon. So if he wins the AO, I'd like to see him add Rotterdam to try to get the #1, play IW, and then re-assess tournament by tournament (Miami and Dubai), and maybe play Madrid to add some points.

I don't think he will, or should, seriously invest in clay season - unless Rafa is injured. Then it would be too hard to pass up the chance at another RG title. But I wouldn't be surprised to see him add Madrid if it is a difference maker in whether he is #1 or not.

 

[DarthFed]

And if he doesn't win the tournament it's all a moot point as he will gain all of 40 points on Rafa if he loses the final and loses a boatload of points if he loses before the finals.

If he does win this tournament the good thing this time around is that he won't really have to chase it like he did last year in Montreal which led to disaster. He is going to play Dubai no matter what and it's a great tournament for him.

 

[El Dude]

Yes, Darth, but as I pointed out in the OP, if he wins AO he can retake #1 at Rotterdam (Feb 12), but Dubai (Feb 26) happens alongside Acapulco, which presumably Rafa will play (unless he's injured).

In other words, here's Roger's shortest path to #1 (assuming he doesn't play on of the Feb 5 ATP 250s, and Rafa doesn't play until Acapulco):
1. Roger wins AO, down 155 points
2. Roger reaches the final of Rotterdam or better, up 145 or 345 points.

He could then maintain his #1 ranking until at least IW (Mar 5) by doing reasonably well at Dubai, but then would be hard-pressed to keep it because of the point differential. He'd have to win at least one and go deep in the other, and Rafa not do so well or not play at all.

He could then re-claim #1 (if he didn't hold it) by adding in some clay season points, or if Rafa struggles or misses a significant portion of clay.

Depending upon Fedal health, the #1 ranking could be a dogfight all year.

 

[Moxie]

I appreciate why you do the work, because it's fun, and it's useful for the rest of us, as it gives us something to track, in the near future. And probably someone on Roger's team knows what the calculations are. But he's got much bigger fish to fry, I'd say, and he's already far ahead on the #1 list.

 

[DarthFed]

Yes, Darth, but as I pointed out in the OP, if he wins AO he can retake #1 at Rotterdam (Feb 12), but Dubai (Feb 26) happens alongside Acapulco, which presumably Rafa will play (unless he's injured).

In other words, here's Roger's shortest path to #1 (assuming he doesn't play on of the Feb 5 ATP 250s, and Rafa doesn't play until Acapulco):
1. Roger wins AO, down 155 points
2. Roger reaches the final of Rotterdam or better, up 145 or 345 points.

He could then maintain his #1 ranking until at least IW (Mar 5) by doing reasonably well at Dubai, but then would be hard-pressed to keep it because of the point differential. He'd have to win at least one and go deep in the other, and Rafa not do so well or not play at all.

He could then re-claim #1 (if he didn't hold it) by adding in some clay season points, or if Rafa struggles or misses a significant portion of clay.

Depending upon Fedal health, the #1 ranking could be a dogfight all year.

Yes but Fed lost 2nd round of Dubai last year and Rafa made the finals of Acapulco. If Fed wins AO he'd be in control of his own destiny at Dubai. But playing Rotterdam wouldn't be the worst thing. Anyways Roger has Berd, Chung and Cilic to worry about before this even becomes a question. Outplaying those guys isn't the tough part for Roger, wanting it more than 3 guys with a combined one slam is. He's got to convince himself he NEEDS #20 more than these guys need their first or second in Cilic's case.

 

[Federberg]

Don't forget about RG '09, when he saw his opportunity and took it. He tightened up a bit, at first, but made good.

Now, as to your OP: I wonder why you are so in favor, or would even mention Roger adding to his schedule in a quest for #1. Wasn't there a lot of complaining that said quest got him to play Montreal and cost him later? He's got more weeks at #1 already. Do you really think he should shoot for it? Or would you prefer if he just take it when/if it comes? I'm sincerely asking.

If he is stupid enough to target #1 again then he deserves everything he gets. I would think Montreal last year should warn him off that nonsense once and for all. By the way... and I'm not hoping for this (definitely not!), but if it turns out that Rafa, Novak and Andy aren't able to make RG this year I can imagine there would be huge pressure on Roger to turn up there. I could imagine him caving in and doing that. I would only hope that he just goes to RG without any warm ups and takes his chances. Wouldn't shock me if he still did the business. But he should do it without risking his chances at Wimbledon

 

[Federberg]

Interesting thought that he play Rotterdam and skip Miami. He concedes at least 500 points, but he breaks up his schedule, and, as a bonus, depending on how he does in Oz and there, he could block Rafa from passing McEnroe on the weeks at #1 all-time list, at least temporarily.

Not sure why he would care at all about stopping Rafa from passing Mac. Frankly if anything I rather suspect that Roger thinks Rafa deserves to be above McEnroe. I really don't think these guys are as petty as we fan-boys are