Roger Year-End #!

[Busted]

You think he'll play 5 more MS events? Reach QF or better in 4 slams and 6 MS? He hasn't come close to that kind of year for a long time ...

I would love to see him win Wimbledon. If he does so, let's talk about #1 again then ...

I got the planned Masters wrong as well - he is scheduled to play Rome, Cincinnati, Shanghai and Paris - so four more.

He's not playing Rome...but...he said he intended to play the American hard court season after Wimbledon so maybe he intends to play the Canadian (Toronto\Montreal) Masters instead for Rome. So that would be Montreal\Toronto, Cinci, Shanghai, Paris. If he plays Montreal\Cinci he'll have a week off between Cinci and the USO.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

No, he won't play Canada again. He will just play Cincy after Wimbledon and then USO. That back to back Masters will be taxing and so he will skip it to save himself for possible USO title.

 

[El Dude]

We shall see. I think a lot depends upon if he wins Wimbledon. If he does, he definitely won't play Canada...I mean, why would he? If he is upset early, maybe he considers Canada to get some points back, if he cares about that.

Either way, Roger's priorities are:

1. Wimbledon
2. US Open
3. Roland Garros
4. #1
5. Masters
6. Basel/Halle
7. Stuttgart

Or so I'd imagine.

 

[Frode789]

We shall see. I think a lot depends upon if he wins Wimbledon. If he does, he definitely won't play Canada...I mean, why would he? If he is upset early, maybe he considers Canada to get some points back, if he cares about that.

Either way, Roger's priorities are:

1. Wimbledon
2. US Open
3. Roland Garros
4. #1
5. Masters
6. Basel/Halle
7. Stuttgart

Or so I'd imagine.

You forgot WTF Finals for pos. 5.

 

[El Dude]

OK, yes. I'd place that between #1 and Masters.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

We shall see. I think a lot depends upon if he wins Wimbledon. If he does, he definitely won't play Canada...I mean, why would he? If he is upset early, maybe he considers Canada to get some points back, if he cares about that.

Either way, Roger's priorities are:

1. Wimbledon
2. US Open
3. Roland Garros
4. #1
5. Masters
6. Basel/Halle
7. Stuttgart

Or so I'd imagine.

I think you've answered your own question. Whatever happens, he wouldn't play both those hard court MS back to back and endanger his USO chances. They're not like IW& Miami, which are played over two weeks.

I guess he could enter Canada and withdraw from Cincy if he goes deep. But if his form holds even remotely until then, he ought to be confident that he won't need to enter more than one event to make sure he gets the matches in before the US Open.

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[isabelle]

OK, yes. I'd place that between #1 and Masters.

according to l'Equipe, he said N°1 wasn't his priority

 

[Frode789]

OK, yes. I'd place that between #1 and Masters.

according to l'Equipe, he said N°1 wasn't his priority

Of course it isn't, but that doesn't mean he does not want to become Nr. 1 again. I believe he has said that he would love to become Nr. 1 again, but it would probably require a lot of effort (playing more events that he should), which in turn might jeopardize his health and ability to play Grand Slams for several more years. Because of that, it isn't a priority. Two very different things.

If he after USO is still a serious contender to YE Nr. 1, and he feels very fresh, he could pick up an extra ATP 500 or two (which he may not have planned originally) if he sees it as a good possibility to become Nr. 1 again. Or he might even get it regardless, if he continues this quality in the bigger tournaments. But it would be a bonus, as he can't risk his health with playing a full year schedule.

 

[El Dude]

Yes, exactly. I think it isn't his priority compared to the Slams, but that doesn't mean he doesn't want it. But people keep saying that he needs to change his schedule to reach #1. I would argue that his schedule is actually somewhat optimized to increase his chances at #1, because it is optimized to go deep at Slams. The most important thing Roger can do to be #1 is to do well at Slams. If he wins one more and reaches the second week at the other two, that's another ~3,000 points or so, and brings him to almost 7,500 without any other tournaments - and he's still going to play the WTF, three Masters, two ATP 500s, and an ATP 250.

The point being, it isn't Slams OR the #1. Doing well at Slams is the most important component to being #1, at least for him. It is a cost-benefit thing. The potential cost of going for a clay Masters or two is just not worth the probable benefit.

I do wish there was a gap between Canada and Cincy, as I think he'd more likely play Canada if that was the case. But I think it makes sense for him to play only one. In fact, depending upon where he is in the rankings, he might tinker with his post-USO schedule. If he has a solid lead, maybe he opts out of Shanghai or Paris. If he's neck and neck with Andy or Novak, you bet he's going to play those tournaments and make #1 a priority.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

If he wins one more and reaches the second week at the other two, that's another ~3,000 points or so, and brings him to almost 7,500 without any other tournaments - and he's still going to play the WTF, three Masters, two ATP 500s, and an ATP 250.

Depends on your defintion of "second week", I guess - he'd have to get a QF and a SF at least to get into the region of 1000 points from 2 GS, if he doesn't make the final in either. And since he's currently got just over 4000 race points, it would only get him to around 7000, I think.

Of course, nonetheless he would be a serious contender if he wins another GS.

On the other hand, given his schedule, we can pretty much put to bed the idea that he could get to #1 without winning another slam, which some have suggested.

Of course, mathematically it is possible. Let's look at the theoretical maximum points available without another GS win, given his conjectured schedule.

Three more GS finals = 3600 points.
Two more MS titles = 2000 points.
Two more 500 wins = 1000 points
Stuttgart W = 250 points
Undefeated WTF win = 1500

So a total of 8350 points, to add to his current tally of 4045, for an absolute maximum of 12395 points.

More likely than not, that would be enough for #1 - but of course there is no way he is going to get those kind of results. If he reached the RG final, it would be a huge surprise. From 2010 onwards, the only year he reached two GS finals was 2015, so reaching three is already a tough ask. Can we really expect Fed to win every MS tournament he enters (even if he only enters 4)? It quickly becomes very hard to see how he would end the year on 10000 points or more, which every year-end number 1 has had since the rankings began. Let's remember Roger's early loss in Dubai this year.

 

[El Dude]

Add one more Masters, because he's supposedly playing Cincy, Shanghai, and Paris. But yeah, winning another Slam helps his chances of being YE1 greatly, but isn't quite as hard as you suggest. For one, given the slow start of Novak and Andy and Rafa's likely decline later in the year, it probably will take only 10,000 points to be YE1, maybe even less. Maybe he wins only another Masters and ATP 500; if he does well in most other tournaments, he'll be well over 8,000 points going into the WTF and could still have a chance of being YE1, if he wins the finals.

But let's see how it plays out. Clay season is very important for Andy, Novak, and Rafa in terms of catching up to Roger.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

I think there's going to be neck on neck battle between Rafa and Roger for year-end no. 1.

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