Roger Year-End #!

[lacatch]

If Roger keeps playing at this level, I can't see who can trouble him on tour and he has a good shot at #1 given that he didn't play after Wimbledon. Depends on his stamina, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him win at least another slam this year. Amazing renaissance!

 

[El Dude]

He may not even need to win another Slam. Consider this possible scenario:

Australian Open W (2000)
Dubai 3R (45)
Indian Wells W (1000)
Miami QF (180)
Clay Masters SF (360)
Roland Garros SF (720)
Stuttgart F (150)
Halle W (500)
Wimbledon F (1200)
Cincinnati W (1000)
US Open SF (720)
Shanghai SF (360)
Basel W (500)
Paris SF (360)
WTF W (1500)

10,595 year-end points should be enough to earn #1, unless someone wins two Slams, which seems unlikely.

So maybe he loses to Sock or Wawrinka, but he could win Miami, Shanghai or Paris.

Regardless, he's at 2405 points now, 800 points ahead of #2 (Rafa). If he beats Sock he's up to 2765, and his lead is 1100 points. A nice start to the year.

 

[Fiero425]

Here we go! :nono :cover - - - - - http://fiero4251.blogspot.com/2016/08/fan-page-novak-nole-djokovic.html - - -

 

[isabelle]

If Roger keeps playing at this level, I can't see who can trouble him on tour and he has a good shot at #1 given that he didn't play after Wimbledon. Depends on his stamina, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him win at least another slam this year. Amazing renaissance!

I don't think he'll keep playing at this level all year long, he'll turn 36 in Aug, age is a main factor for him. Andy'll probably finsh the year N°1 except if he picks up a bad injury and stay sidelined like Delpo or Haas (which I don't hope)

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Read Fed's views on the matter. He has the right attitude, as usual about these things.

Top spot not the goal for Federer
Tennis, Updated: March 19, 2017 10:37 AM


Roger Federer says replacing Andy Murray as the world number one is a "possibility" but not a priority.



The Swiss star has spent a record of 302 weeks at the top of the ATP rankings but he is currently in 10th spot after missing the latter half of last year due to injury.
Federer claimed the Australian Open crown earlier this year and is through to the final at Indian Wells, where he will face compatriot Stan Wawrinka on Sunday.
The 35-year-old says reclaiming the top spot in the rankings is not a major priority and he feels it will be hard as he has reduced his schedule to ensure he remains fit.
However, the 18-time Grand Slam champion believes he may be able to move back to the top if he wins another major this season.
"Well, because I'm not going to be playing so much, you would think I would need to win probably another Grand Slam for that to happen" Federer said, as reported by Tennis World USA. "Because I have one in the bag, I guess there is a possibility. Plus I'm playing well here [Indian Wells] again, away from the Grand Slams. But the Grand Slams give so many points that that's probably where I would have to make a huge run again. And maybe one is not enough, as well, because they [his rivals] will pick up their level of play."
He added: "They will pick up their game, and they're going to win tournaments again. So, for me, just because Novak [Djokovic] might not play Miami and Andy is not, and I'm in the finals here, it doesn't change anything in my scheduling.
"I'd love to be world No. 1 again. But anything else other than world No 1 for me is not interesting. So that's why the rankings is not a priority right now. It's totally about being healthy, enjoying the tournaments I'm playing and trying to win those."

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Roger currently has 3645 points in the race and is #1 in the race (No, I am not joining the crazy fans #1 call at this time). But, there is an interesting fact that I want to point out.

Last year, the 8th (and hence the last) qualifier to the WTF (it was Rafa) had 3300 points in the race when WTF started. So, assuming a similar distribution of points, Roger has already guaranteed an entry in WTF in the regular route (of course, they will not announce any thing officially at this time). But, it should be very clear.

 

[El Dude]

Here's the most shocking part:

1. Federer 3645
2. Nadal 2235
...
12. Murray 840
...
22. Djokovic 475

Novak is now over 3,000 points beyond Roger. Andy is almost 3,000 behind. Crazy stuff.

 

[mrzz]

In fact, no matter the result on sunday, one thing is almost certain: Nadal will be leading the race after the clay season.

 

[sid]

In fact, no matter the result on sunday, one thing is almost certain: Nadal will be leading the race after the clay season.

Not so sure on that time will tell.

 

[mrzz]

^See that I referred specifically to the race, not to the one year rankings. Given the numbers GSM and El Dude posted above, it is hard to see someone else there. Federer will hardly amass too many points, Djokovic and Murray are at least 1400 points behind Nadal... it is a tough ask to score 1400 points more than Nadal on the clay season. I won´t check, but I guess only Djokovic did that in recent years -- and Nadal is playing much better now.

But, if Nadal loses on Sunday it is becomes easier, and Murray is closer than Djokovic. But both are in the comeback track. It is not impossible -- but quite hard.

One could still consider Wawrinka, and even Thiem, since they´re closer in the race than the current top 2 in the rankings.

 

[Carlg]

If he wins on Sunday he will have over a 3000pt lead on Andy and Novak. That's a crazy handicap for those other two and I think gives Roger a great chance at year end #1. Health is the big concern here for sure. If he's healthy and can play close to a full schedule he will be hard to beat. Even if Novak and Andy regain form, Roger when healthy is still at least a top 8(probably top 4) player. That means even if he doesn't win he will still be raking in them points.

 

[El Dude]

I know Roger says it isn't on his mind but at this point I don't know how it couldn't be. Aside from Slam titles, the #1 ranking--especially the year-end #1--is the biggest accomplishment in any given year, bigger than the WTF or any Masters. Plus, if he does it again he ties Pete with six.

That said, his schedule will primarily be about optimizing his chances at Slams, especially Wimbledon, and only secondarily about accruing points.


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[mightyjeditribble]

There are 5000 points available in the clay-court season from RG + MS alone, not to mention other tournaments. Roger's lead in the race may seem big, but could look very different in a couple of months.

It is amazing that Fed has been able to play as well as he has as consistently as he so far this year. If he manages to keep it up, of course #1 could be in play. But it seems too much to hope for. And I don't think he can do it without some further help from circumstances.

Look at Murray. Even with the disappointing start to the year, he is on almost 12000 points. If that is what is necessary for world #1 I don't see how Fed could do it. He can't play so many tournaments, and we can hardly expect him to keep winning / reaching finals in all of the ones that he does play.

So the best chance of Fed becoming #1 is if he keeps playing amazing for the rest of the year - probably having to win another GS - and also Murray's and Novak's slump continues, with the available points being distributed among more players, so that fewer points will be required to reach #1.

The last thing Fed would or should do is change his scheduling plans because of a pursuit of the #1 ranking. If things still look at least close after the USO, when all the slams have been played, I might change my mind ...

 

[El Dude]

A player definitely won't need 12,000 points to be YE1 this year. I suspect it will require more like 10,000, maybe even only 9,000. Remember, #1 only needs more points than #2...it isn't like there is a set amount required.

Given the weak starts of the current 1-2, unless one of them comes back and wins two Slams and several other big titles, I could see a scenario where the YE1 wins only a single Slam, 2-3 Masters/WTF, a couple other titles, and good showings at most Slams.

Now let's say Roger only wins AO, IW and one other Masters, one of Halle or Basel, and Stuttgart. That's 5750 points from titles. Let's add to that a Slam QF, SF, and F, and three wins at the WTF (SF result). That's another ~2800 points, which brings him up to around 8,500. Now add in solid results at five more Masters (say F, SFx2, QF, 3R), and that's another 1500 points that brings him up to 10,000 for the year.

In other words, unless someone else utterly dominates from here out, Roger only needs to stay healthy and play pretty well, not even winning more than another Masters and a couple lesser titles to earn YE1. Now if he wins Miami, Halle, and Wimbledon, all of a sudden he's the favorite going into the last part of the year.


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[mightyjeditribble]

A player definitely won't need 12,000 points to be YE1 this year. I suspect it will require more like 10,000, maybe even only 9,000. Remember, #1 only needs more points than #2...it isn't like there is a set amount required.

Given the weak starts of the current 1-2, unless one of them comes back and wins two Slams and several other big titles, I could see a scenario where the YE1 wins only a single Slam, 2-3 Masters/WTF, a couple other titles, and good showings at most Slams.

Now let's say Roger only wins AO, IW and one other Masters, one of Halle or Basel, and Stuttgart. That's 5750 points from titles. Let's add to that a Slam QF, SF, and F, and three wins at the WTF (SF result). That's another ~2800 points, which brings him up to around 8,500. Now add in solid results at five more Masters (say F, SFx2, QF, 3R), and that's another 1500 points that brings him up to 10,000 for the year.

In other words, unless someone else utterly dominates from here out, Roger only needs to stay healthy and play pretty well, not even winning more than another Masters and a couple lesser titles to earn YE1. Now if he wins Miami, Halle, and Wimbledon, all of a sudden he's the favorite going into the last part of the year.


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You think he'll play 5 more MS events? Reach QF or better in 4 slams and 6 MS? He hasn't come close to that kind of year for a long time ...

I would love to see him win Wimbledon. If he does so, let's talk about #1 again then ...

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[GameSetAndMath]

Now let's say Roger only wins AO, IW and one other Masters, one of Halle or Basel, and Stuttgart. That's 5750 points from titles.

I suppose arithmetic is not your forte.

 

[El Dude]

Whoops, 4750. I was thinking Miami as well. But thanks for the snide comment, GSM.

 

[El Dude]

You think he'll play 5 more MS events? Reach QF or better in 4 slams and 6 MS? He hasn't come close to that kind of year for a long time ...

I would love to see him win Wimbledon. If he does so, let's talk about #1 again then ...

I got the planned Masters wrong as well - he is scheduled to play Rome, Cincinnati, Shanghai and Paris - so four more.

But I can be more conservative, if you like. So far he's got the following points:

AUSTRALIAN OPEN: 2000
Dubai 500: 45
Indian Wells Masters: 1000
Miami Masters: 600/1000

So at the end of Miami and going into clay season, he'll have either 3645 or 4045 points. We'll go with 3645 to play it safe. Here's a look going forward:

For clay season, he is scheduled to play only two tournaments, Rome and Roland Garros. Let's be conservative and say that he is a bit rusty for Rome and goes out in the 3R (45), and is decent at RG but loses in the QF (360). That gives him 4050 points going into grass season, during which he's scheduled to play Stuttgart 250, Halle 500, and Wimbledon. Let's say he wins Stuttgart (250), loses in the Halle final (300), and loses in the Wimby final (1200). That gives him another 1750 points, so 5800 total.

OK, on to the US tour. Cincinnati is one of Roger's best tournaments (he's won 7 of the last 11 he's played in), but we're being conservative so let's say he loses in the SF to a young punk (360). Similarly, he goes out in the SF of the US Open (720), so adds another 1080 points, so is sitting at 6880.

Next up is Shanghai. We'll also say he loses in the SF (360), but then wins Basel (500). Next is Paris, which he loses in the QF (180). So that's 1040 more points, so 7920 total, going into the World Tour Finals. If he wins the whole tournament he's over 9,000 points. If he goes out in the SF, he's at 8320 or 8520.

So here's the point: If Roger plays similarly to 2014-15 the rest of the year, he's going to finish with at least 8,000 ATP points - and that's winning no more Slams or Masters, just one ATP 500 and one ATP 250. Chances are he wins at least one more Masters, or even a Slam. But my point is, 8,000 is a good baseline for Roger being healthy and not collapsing.

That itself puts him in contention for Year-end #1. Why? Well, unless someone else gets really hot and wins two Slams, that may be enough to win it. Novak and Andy have started very slow, and even if Rafa gets hot in clay season is unlikely to maintain it for the whole year. The rankings come October could be very tight, with several players in the 7-8,000 point range. We may come down to another WTF decider, which would be a lot of fun.

Now here's another scenario. Let's say Roger wins Miami tomorrow, reaches the SF of Rome and Roland Garros. All of a sudden he's at 5125 points going into grass season, instead of the very modest 4050 in the above conservative view. If he then wins Halle and Wimbledon and does well in Stuttgart, he's then at ~7700 and can cruise to the YE1.

But yeah, there's a lot of tennis to play and surprises always happen. My point is only that it isn't a stretch to get Roger to the year-end #1, and it may require less than we might think.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Year-end #1 would be quite a feat given that Fed is planning to skip the entire clay season apart from RG ...

If Nadal wins RG, or two clay MS, he will be ahead of Fed in the race, assuming Fed doesn't make great waves at the French.

Also, every year since the current ranking points structure was introduced in 2009, the year-end world #1 has had over 10000 ranking points, usually by a considerable margin.

It's a very, very long shot for Fed to get #1 with the schedule he intends to play. He'll definitely need some help from the other players. Djokovic won 4 straight grand slams, then he lost in the next 3. Do we really think he won't win another in the next three attempts? It's possible, of course, and stranger things have happened ... but I would be very careful counting him and Murray out!

 

[El Dude]

Also, every year since the current ranking points structure was introduced in 2009, the year-end world #1 has had over 10000 ranking points, usually by a considerable margin.

Good point. But my question is, how many points did the #1 have at this point in the year? Let's take a look at ATP Race points through the Miami Masters:

2016: Andy Murray 1565 (Novak had 4340)
2015: Novak 4385
2014: Novak 2690
2013: Rafa 1900
2012: Novak 3540
2011: Novak 4500
2010: Rafa 1230
2009: Roger 2010

Rafa in 2010 was the lowest, and that ended up being his best year - he absolutely killed the clay court season and won the last three Slams.

The only players who have at least 1200 ranking points are Roger (4045), Rafa (2235), Stan (1500), Grigor (1365), and Jo-Willie (1255). If we expand that to 1000 we get Thiem, Sock, and Goffin. Andy is all the way down at 840 and Novak at 475.

The only two players who have a legit shot at 10,000 points are probably Roger and Rafa. I mean I suppose Stan could get hot and win two Slams, but even then he'd have to win a few other big tournaments and we've never seen him that consistent. For Andy or Novak to get there, they'd have to at least win two Slams (4000 pts), several Masters/WTF (3000-3500), and go deep almost everyone else. It is possible, but we've seen zero sign that it will happen, at least on that level of dominance.

For Roger to get to 10,000, he needs to win another Slam, another Masters, and the WTF...that's 4,500 and will get him to 8,545, not counting non-win results which would only have to be pretty good.

But my view is, that while 10,000 might happen for someone - probably only either Roger or Rafa - it might not be necessary to win the YE1. I'm thinking 9,000 will be enough.

It's a very, very long shot for Fed to get #1 with the schedule he intends to play. He'll definitely need some help from the other players. Djokovic won 4 straight grand slams, then he lost in the next 3. Do we really think he won't win another in the next three attempts? It's possible, of course, and stranger things have happened ... but I would be very careful counting him and Murray out!

I am not counting them out and think at least one of them will win a Slam this year. But again, in order to get the 9-10,000 points to be #1 might be harder to accomplish, with their slow starts.

The other thing to consider is that if Andy and Novak come back at least relatively strong, it is unlikely that any one player will dominate for the rest of the year. Consider:

*Roger already has an over 3,000 point lead over the current #1-2. That's a lot to make up.
*Rafa is playing well enough to be a force during at least clay season.
*There are several young(ish) players who are chomping at the bit and look poised to take at least a Masters or two away from the Big(ish) Five: Thiem, Kyrgios, Zverev, and of course Dimitrov, Raonic, and Nishikori. And of course there's del Potro.

The bottom line being: no one (except for possibly Roger) is looking dominant enough to go on a tear and sweep the year. Chances are the Masters and remaining Slams will be split up among multiple players - not only the Big Five, but maybe one or two younger players. Now if someone wins two Slams, that changes things - especially Roger, with his two Masters already in the bag. But I think it will be a dogfight, and not only will the YE1 not be clear until the WTF or at least Shanghai/Basel/Paris, but Roger will be in the mix all the way to the end.