RF: "No Need to Panic"/ gets WC for Gstaad

[isabelle]

RE: Federer: "No Need to Panic"

I think Federer still has a Slam or two left in him. The draw has to be favorable and Nadal has to probably lose for him to have a chance.

Nadal and Stakhovsky and Murray and Nole and Berdych and.....all tennis planet must lose to let him a chance

 

[Ricardo]

RE: Federer: "No Need to Panic"

I think Federer still has a Slam or two left in him. The draw has to be favorable and Nadal has to probably lose for him to have a chance.

Nadal and Stakhovsky and Murray and Nole and Berdych and.....all tennis planet must lose to let him a chance

i thought after 2012 we wouldn't see stupidity like this for a while. has he offended you in some way?

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

RE: Federer: "No Need to Panic"

Roger decided to play Gstaad.

 

[herios]

RE: Federer: "No Need to Panic"

Roger decided to play Gstaad.

uzzled

A 250 on clay of all places?? Now that is new. Ferrer must have inspired him

At least we now know that is not only about slams for Roger, rather about gaining some confidence back. I think it will be good for him.

 

[El Dude]

RE: Federer: "No Need to Panic"

By the way, I did a bit of research and here's the main difference between 2012 and 2013.

2012 record: 71-12 (86%)
2013 record: 27-8 (77%)

Obviously a sizable difference. but where are those losses coming from? The main difference is vs. top 10 players. In 2012 Federer was 16-9 vs. top 10 players; in 2013 (so far) he's 1-5. Against other rankings groups his numbers are similar:

#11-20
2012: 8-1
2013: 5-1

#21-50
2012: 26-1
2013: 12-1

#51-100
2012: 18-1
2013: 2-0

#101+
2012: 6-0
2013: 7-1

So again, the main difference is against top 10 opponents. He's only beaten Tsonga way back at the Australian Open; since then he's lost to Nadal twice, Tsonga, Berdych, and Murray once each (he's yet to play Djokovic this year).

This is why I feel like his "true ranking" is more in the #5-10 range. Players in that range tend to have losing records against top 10 players but dominate everyone else. Compare (through Wimbledon 4R):

1. Novak Djokovic: 37-5 (7-3 vs. top 10)
2. Andy Murray: 31-5 (4-3 vs. top 10)
3. Roger Federer: 27-8 (1-5 vs. top 10)
4. David Ferrer: 41-11 (1-6 vs. top 10)
5. Rafael Nadal: 43-2 (12-1 vs. top 10)
6. Tomas Berdych: 35-12 (4-6 vs. top 10)
7. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: 30-11 (4-4 vs. top 10)
8. Juan Martin Del Potro: 22-8 (2-2 vs. top 10)
9. Richard Gasquet: 32-11 (1-4 vs. top 10)
10: Stanislas Wawrinka: 34-12 (5-7 vs. top 10)

So there you have it. A couple things that stand out. First of all, Rafa's dominance - just amazing. 43-2 this year including 12-1 vs. top 10 players! OK, that's mainly clay but still. Secondly, Roger's record fits in with everyone not named Novak, Rafa, and Andy. In other words, so far we've had a Big Three and then everyone else.

---

To put all that another way, the only players other than Federer who have lost 2 or fewer matches to non-top 10 players are Djokovic, Nadal and Murray. Everyone else in the top 10 has lost 5 or more matches to players ranked outside of the top 10. In other words, he's been similarly as dominant to non-top 10 players as the other three, and moreso than other members of the top 10, but has struggled with other top 10 players - moreso than anyone other than David Ferrer.

 

[shawnbm]

RE: Federer: "No Need to Panic"

I always appreciate the stats and analysis you provide, El Dude. Thanks.

 

[ftan]

RE: Federer: "No Need to Panic"

I think Federer still has a Slam or two left in him. The draw has to be favorable and Nadal has to probably lose for him to have a chance.

Nadal and Stakhovsky and Murray and Nole and Berdych and.....all tennis planet must lose to let him a chance

i thought after 2012 we wouldn't see stupidity like this for a while. has he offended you in some way?

Thats Isabelle ..i have learned to ignore her posts when it comes to Federer

 

[Johnsteinbeck]

alright, i felt like the Gstaad-move might warrant a thread of it's own, but down want to flood the forum with Fed-threads either. so i hope you're all okay with adapting the title so that people get that there's news in here.

because i think this is some big news. i can't recall an "off"move like this (playing a non-warm up surface) by Roger in almost a decade. Fed last played (and won) Gstaad in 2004 - that time it was after winning Wimbledon.

i honestly don't know what to make of it. it could just be a panic move, short-sighted, with an eye on the points lost from the Olympics (i think Fed will get to use any points he gets at Gstaad then) and the potential ranking ramifications (Berd's #6 rank). it could be new hunger, or just willingness to scavenge for any minor titles he finds. mhm... interesting, for sure. nice for the swiss.

i bet Stan hates it, though. he was gonna be top dog there, both in rank and attention, and now this.

 

[shawnbm]

Maybe Roger and his team are feeling that he "underscheduled" himself during their planning for 2013 and his early losses at some events have led to him having far less actual playing time such that they think he needs more wins to salvage the year? I don't see how he could feel really comfortable gearing up for New York only playing one of the Masters Series events after so much time off the court against the world's best.

 

[ftan]

Its all about match practice, no matter how much he says he is practicing.. there is nothing compared to actual matches under the belt and as well all know, even though he entered just 2 tournaments less.. he hasnt got a lot of matches in.. he is just trying to get in the grove.. 250 points would not make a huge difference I think

 

[DarthFed]

Maybe Roger and his team are feeling that he "underscheduled" himself during their planning for 2013 and his early losses at some events have led to him having far less actual playing time such that they think he needs more wins to salvage the year? I don't see how he could feel really comfortable gearing up for New York only playing one of the Masters Series events after so much time off the court against the world's best.

I don't think he underscheduled himself. You can make a case for rust playing a role in the Madrid loss but that's it. After that, Roger made the Rome finals and I don't think it is lack of match practice that led to the ugly QF loss to Tsonga. Then after RG, Fed won Halle so again I don't think rust explains the 2nd round loss at Wimbledon.

Roger has played bad this year from the get go. There have been a few good matches here and there and that's it. I don't think this move is due to panic or even just to get some cheap points. I think he is probably really really really pissed off at his play and wants to get back on the court and start turning things around. Also I was wondering did he come out and say he is only planning on playing one of the MS events? That would surely be a mistake at this point. Not only for this year but he has to start thinking about his ranking for next year.

 

[Front242]

Likely just playing to keep his local Swiss fans happy and also means he gets to stay home a bit longer before the US HC swing. Hardly as if he's in it for the points as if he were, he'd have opted to play Hamburg instead. Mostly just for the local fans and of course a few wins to perk up the confidence. Also as it was the first tournament that offered him a WC, it's a sentimental event.

 

[shawnbm]

Valid points above; either way, it is good he's at least playing before hitting the US Open Series.

 

[tented]

Also I was wondering did he come out and say he is only planning on playing one of the MS events? That would surely be a mistake at this point. Not only for this year but he has to start thinking about his ranking for next year.

Both are on his schedule on his official site:

http://www.rogerfederer.com/en/tennis/schedule.html

 

[tennisville]

is this a farewell tour , giving back to events that favoured him

 

[reddy]

WOW. He is also playing Hamburg. Hamburg + Gstaad a week before Cincy + Montreal? what gives?


http://www.rogerfederer.com/en/tennis/news.html

 

[Front242]

WOW. He is also playing Hamburg. Hamburg + Gstaad a week before Cincy + Montreal? what gives?


http://www.rogerfederer.com/en/tennis/news.html

Thanks for posting Reddy. Haven't checked Fed's schedule/website for a while now. Well it seems he's determined to make a run for points so 'cos he lost a ton at Wimbledon (and the whole year really) and very much needs points to quality for the WTF. Looking forward to seeing him play more. Quite a lot of tennis for him so next few weeks with Gstaad and Hamburg before the US HC swing. Looking forward to it and maybe the extra match play will make him sharper for the US Open despite being on clay. Surface transition has never been a problem for Roger.

 

[isabelle]

Gstaad = 250 pts to take
Hamburg = 500 pts to take
That's probably why he decided to play there

 

[reddy]

I'd have to imagine that IF Fed wins these 2 titles, it might have some impact on his Montreal/Cincy results. He might skip Montreal or might not go deep if he does play both masters. Bottom line is points gained at Hamburg + Gstaad might have some adverse impact on potential gain at Montreal+Cincy. I am not convinced by the points gain theory.

 

[Johnsteinbeck]

wtf?!

wow. tennisville might be on to something. whatever the reason, i like it. i wonder if he tries to get back into DC now as well (and if not, what the excuse could possibly be ).

---

500 points are a factor of course. given how quick this all came - Real quick, as Hamburg has yet to update their homepage on it, i really think a lot of it might be about points. he can't trust himself to have a brilliant fall, and if he doesn't, qualifying for London would be endangered, and next thing you know, he'd be ranked in the double digits come 2014.

still, no clue as to what's going on there. kinda excited to watch it, though - who knows what'll happen next!