Reflections & Questions from Wimbledon

[the AntiPusher]

Its amazing that in the past 11 years, only 4 players have won the tournament. fed 7x, rafa 2x, and djoker and murray once. Really speaks a lot about this generation. Thats how hard it is for others to break through. I honestly hope fed sticks around and plays competitive tennis. god am i going to miss him if he stops making 2nd week of slams.
that said i think both murray and djoker will win more slams. If rafa is healthy he has a good shot at beating feds record (im gonna hate that day if it happens). other than that i expect the slams to be contested by the top 3 from now on. maybe delpo will join them. fed is an enigma at this point. if he does win US open this will mark the second time that same four men won a slam each for second straight year. keeping my fingers crossed he can make that happen. however ill say djoker is the slight favorite to win US open imo.

Never say never and I don't want to jinx the slam race, but I think Fed's 17 is safe regarding Rafa. I think eventually someone will top 17, but no one in this era IMO.

Three years here ago I predicted it would end 17-15. I think the 17 will prove to be accurate for Roger and think Rafa has an outside chance at 15, but will be shocked if gets 16. Those knees aren't getting any younger.

We will see. I honestly can see Rafa winning 4-5 more RG's. I think a year like this proves that movement is secondary for him there, it is mainly about the forehand. And he will be making that ball jump up ridiculously high for as long as he plays because that is mostly about his physical strength which doesn't decline until much later. Aside from Djokovic and his own health there are absolutely no threats there. Not even a 1 out of 50 chance of an upset threat.

Fed's 17 will fall either in 4-5 years to Nadal or within 15 years to a player we haven't seen yet. Believe it or not, the 17 was not setting the bar that high given today's conditions (everyone playing the same style, courts playing more similar). Roger was a late bloomer and he left a lot of slams on the table by not closing out some matches he should have. Ironically, the 17 will prove to be one of his easiest records to break. Now if he can somehow add another couple slams then it will be a different story.

I like your thinking, Darth, about Rafa and RG. I do think that the future for Rafa and Roger is a bit of a mystery, due to Roger's age and Rafa's knees. I'm hoping that, at a minimum that Nadal passes Pete and gets to 15. If he wins a Slam outside of RG in the next year and a half, and holds at RG, that is likely.

I'm not sure about your theory that Fed's 17, if it doesn't fall to Rafa, (and obviously, it depends on if he improves on it,) will fall to another player in 15 years. It could happen, of course. Everyone thought Pete's record would stand for a while. But we'd be looking for a phenom, and we haven't yet seen the rise of one. The more likely scenario is that, when the Big 4 stop featuring, we go back to a period of players trading Slams and weeks at #1, a few at a time. There is a bit of a dead-zone in the current mid-level of talent, and until another super-star arises, they're going to debate each other, MS by MS and Slam to Slam, but no one in the current crop seems ready to rise high enough to dominate to the point of garnering 18 Slams. I know you said that's a player-to-be-named later, we're still waiting for that player.

Darth, FedFan, CF and Moxie, I thought Fed was safe when I looked at Djoker's recent dominance and Rafa fragile knees but after Andy's recent resurgence, 17 isn't merely a pipe dream. Rafa so far hasn't shown any indications that he has suffered any further injury to his knees and Novak isn't as invincible as he was in 2011-2013 but that could change because he really is that good. Rafa's H2H against the big 4 is still the best and now the premium will be placed where it should have been for years(Huntingyou has been preaching this since the Bushes were in the oval office) Rafa has to reduce his hectic schedule for rest to get maximum effort from his game. However, this thread is about reflections\ Andy's day and the best thing I can say to that chap is "Welcome to the party, pal"! clap:clap

 

[coban]

What have we come out of Wimbledon with? What reflections and questions? A few things come to mind:

- Andy Murray is now truly an elite player, not simply "best of the rest" or even "worst of the best" but right there with Novak Djokovic and Rafa Nadal

- Jerzy Janowicz is for real. He might be a year away from a Slam win, but he's not going away and is getting better

- Juan Martin Del Potro played a great tournament and looks better than he has in years, maybe even a darkhorse candidate to take the US Open

- Is Rafa done as a serious Wimbledon threat?

- How far gone is Roger, and can he come back?

- Of the young guns, only JJ and Bernard Tomic really impressed; Dimitrov has a ways to go yet and Raonic is stagnating (at best)

- Im not sure why, but i still like Federer over Murray in most cases.
- Jerzy good yes, but he is not very likable
- DelPo is def. a dark horse if he can improve.
- What Rafa brings in the future --- clay titles yes, but other than that?
- He's not gone, im sure we'll see a reaction soon. But he's still got some good games in him.

 

[DarthFed]

Its amazing that in the past 11 years, only 4 players have won the tournament. fed 7x, rafa 2x, and djoker and murray once. Really speaks a lot about this generation. Thats how hard it is for others to break through. I honestly hope fed sticks around and plays competitive tennis. god am i going to miss him if he stops making 2nd week of slams.
that said i think both murray and djoker will win more slams. If rafa is healthy he has a good shot at beating feds record (im gonna hate that day if it happens). other than that i expect the slams to be contested by the top 3 from now on. maybe delpo will join them. fed is an enigma at this point. if he does win US open this will mark the second time that same four men won a slam each for second straight year. keeping my fingers crossed he can make that happen. however ill say djoker is the slight favorite to win US open imo.

Never say never and I don't want to jinx the slam race, but I think Fed's 17 is safe regarding Rafa. I think eventually someone will top 17, but no one in this era IMO.

Three years here ago I predicted it would end 17-15. I think the 17 will prove to be accurate for Roger and think Rafa has an outside chance at 15, but will be shocked if gets 16. Those knees aren't getting any younger.

We will see. I honestly can see Rafa winning 4-5 more RG's. I think a year like this proves that movement is secondary for him there, it is mainly about the forehand. And he will be making that ball jump up ridiculously high for as long as he plays because that is mostly about his physical strength which doesn't decline until much later. Aside from Djokovic and his own health there are absolutely no threats there. Not even a 1 out of 50 chance of an upset threat.

Fed's 17 will fall either in 4-5 years to Nadal or within 15 years to a player we haven't seen yet. Believe it or not, the 17 was not setting the bar that high given today's conditions (everyone playing the same style, courts playing more similar). Roger was a late bloomer and he left a lot of slams on the table by not closing out some matches he should have. Ironically, the 17 will prove to be one of his easiest records to break. Now if he can somehow add another couple slams then it will be a different story.

At 27 and with all that mileage on already fragile knees, if you think Rafa will honestly win another 4-5 RGs...keep in mind that's 12-13 FO titles...you might want to put down the bottle. As great as Rafa is on clay and he's undoubtably the best ever...that's simply unrealistic considering his age, knee history and naturally declining health that comes with father time. At 24, quite possibly yes...but not now. Nole came within a wisker this year and the older Rafa gets obviously the more difficult it will become to keep racking up those titles. He is human after all.

Rafa currently has a RECORD nine straight years winning a slam. You do realize you are talking now 13-14 straight years with a slam? With his knee history I don't think he'll even be playing the ATP Tour into his early 30s. Just being realistic here.

A lot of people have been saying that same thing since Nadal had his first serious injury in 2009 if not before, and here he is still destroying all but one player at RG. I do think with the diminished movement it will be hard for him to win another one off clay but on clay he doesn't even need to move that well and I still think he would be the favorite. There it is more about the spin while adding on the amazing movement/defense just has made him almost impossible to beat. Aside from injuries Nole is the only one who can stop him at RG in the next 3-4 years, I see absolutely no other threats.

 

[El Dude]

Its good to remember, also, that while they don't have the same injury problems as Rafa, Novak and Andy are only a year younger and, as I've said before, great players often take a half-step back around age 27 or so. I think its waaaay too soon to say this, but the thought did cross my mind that Novak would have had more stamina in that match against Andy a year ago, but it might be the first sign of him losing a hair off his game.

No, I'm not saying that Novak and Andy are in decline - far from it. But in another year or two, we might start seeing signs of it, which will in turn make them more vulnerable to challengers. I'd even say that while 2014 will see further dominance from the Big Three, the hairline cracks that will start appearing over the next year or so will be fully evident by 2015 and, in 2016-17 (when Andy and Novak will be 29-30), the field will be more level until the next great player arises.

I don't think we'll see a huge upset in the 2013 US Open - I see the only players with a serious shot of winning it as the five who have already won Slams within the last four years. Next year's AO and FO will also be wrestled over by Novak, Andy, and Rafa, but 2014 Wimbledon and US Open? Who knows? I could see a sea change beginning.

---

A lot of people have been saying that same thing since Nadal had his first serious injury in 2009 if not before, and here he is still destroying all but one player at RG. I do think with the diminished movement it will be hard for him to win another one off clay but on clay he doesn't even need to move that well and I still think he would be the favorite. There it is more about the spin while adding on the amazing movement/defense just has made him almost impossible to beat. Aside from injuries Nole is the only one who can stop him at RG in the next 3-4 years, I see absolutely no other threats.

I agree with you IF he can stay healthy, and that's a big if. But even if he's unthreatened by anyone but Novak for the next 3-4 years, what if Novak wins one or two of those? That leaves Rafa with the 2-3 more, which is what I'm predicting, not 4-5.

4-5 means that Rafa would have to win Roland Garros at age 28, 29, 30, 31 and maybe 32; or miss a year and win another at 33. Given that Andre Agassi is the only player to have won a Slam in his age 32 season or later since the 70s when Rosewall and Ashe both did it (Rosewall four times, including during his age 38 season!), Rafa's LIKELY window is the next four years - age 28-31. I'm not saying he can't sneak another in after that, but its hard to imagine him playing into his 30s at all, let alone 32-33.

In other words, history really points to age 31 being the last likely Slam season. That's how old Rod Laver was when he own all four for the second time - and he never won another Slam - its also how old Roger Federer was last year during his resurgence, its the last year Sampras and Connors won a Slam. This doesn't mean that no one can win Slams after age 31, but that I think in terms of looking at a player as a viable challenger to win a Slam, anything after age 31 should be viewed as a pleasant--and very unlikely--surprise.

 

[herios]

Its good to remember, also, that while they don't have the same injury problems as Rafa, Novak and Andy are only a year younger and, as I've said before, great players often take a half-step back around age 27 or so. I think its waaaay too soon to say this, but the thought did cross my mind that Novak would have had more stamina in that match against Andy a year ago, but it might be the first sign of him losing a hair off his game.

No, I'm not saying that Novak and Andy are in decline - far from it. But in another year or two, we might start seeing signs of it, which will in turn make them more vulnerable to challengers. I'd even say that while 2014 will see further dominance from the Big Three, the hairline cracks that will start appearing over the next year or so will be fully evident by 2015 and, in 2016-17 (when Andy and Novak will be 29-30), the field will be more level until the next great player arises.

I don't think we'll see a huge upset in the 2013 US Open - I see the only players with a serious shot of winning it as the five who have already won Slams within the last four years. Next year's AO and FO will also be wrestled over by Novak, Andy, and Rafa, but 2014 Wimbledon and US Open? Who knows? I could see a sea change beginning.

---

A lot of people have been saying that same thing since Nadal had his first serious injury in 2009 if not before, and here he is still destroying all but one player at RG. I do think with the diminished movement it will be hard for him to win another one off clay but on clay he doesn't even need to move that well and I still think he would be the favorite. There it is more about the spin while adding on the amazing movement/defense just has made him almost impossible to beat. Aside from injuries Nole is the only one who can stop him at RG in the next 3-4 years, I see absolutely no other threats.

I agree with you IF he can stay healthy, and that's a big if. But even if he's unthreatened by anyone but Novak for the next 3-4 years, what if Novak wins one or two of those? That leaves Rafa with the 2-3 more, which is what I'm predicting, not 4-5.

4-5 means that Rafa would have to win Roland Garros at age 28, 29, 30, 31 and maybe 32; or miss a year and win another at 33. Given that Andre Agassi is the only player to have won a Slam in his age 32 season or later since the 70s when Rosewall and Ashe both did it (Rosewall four times, including during his age 38 season!), Rafa's LIKELY window is the next four years - age 28-31. I'm not saying he can't sneak another in after that, but its hard to imagine him playing into his 30s at all, let alone 32-33.

In other words, history really points to age 31 being the last likely Slam season. That's how old Rod Laver was when he own all four for the second time - and he never won another Slam - its also how old Roger Federer was last year during his resurgence, its the last year Sampras and Connors won a Slam. This doesn't mean that no one can win Slams after age 31, but that I think in terms of looking at a player as a viable challenger to win a Slam, anything after age 31 should be viewed as a pleasant--and very unlikely--surprise.

---

I doubt Rafa will be playing after he will be 30. He stated he'll stay in to 2016 Olympics, when he will be 30.

 

[shawnbm]

I actually don't see Rafa winning too many more slams either. He's at the stage in his career where Federer was in 2008. Everything was relatively easy up to that point a few hiccups aside, but getting the 13th, 14th and 15th were complete torture for him.

I might be wrong (I never really expected him to beat Novak in the RG final like he did with only a few matches under his belt) and he might indeed surprise everyone with a long career. But somehow I think his later career will probably be a relatively harsh fall, somewhat like what happened to Hewitt when he lost his wheels.

You may have a point there, haelfix, but let's hope he can continue to play at a great level for a few more years. You gotta love and respect his fight.

 

[the AntiPusher]

I actually don't see Rafa winning too many more slams either. He's at the stage in his career where Federer was in 2008. Everything was relatively easy up to that point a few hiccups aside, but getting the 13th, 14th and 15th were complete torture for him.

I might be wrong (I never really expected him to beat Novak in the RG final like he did with only a few matches under his belt) and he might indeed surprise everyone with a long career. But somehow I think his later career will probably be a relatively harsh fall, somewhat like what happened to Hewitt when he lost his wheels.

You may have a point there, haelfix, but let's hope he can continue to play at a great level for a few more years. You gotta love and respect his fight.

Shawn, it good to see that you are back on board with Rafa somewhat because I recalled the you said prior to his RG semi vs djoker , you said Rafa was pretty much finished or his best days were behind him.

 

[shawnbm]

Yeah, I had my doubts and still do a bit. I just don't see him devoting much time to hards and that means he may gradually revert to what he came to fame as--the great clay court destroyer. Even that, though, will be tougher than it was even three years ago--even though he is Rafa. I would like to see him win another hard court slam, but I think it is going to be awfully tough for him; he is more vulnerable on that surface and always has been through the years. Even so, he is still in the top three or four players on hards regardless, and that is quite a testament to him after all these years.

 

[Riotbeard]

Also, I think people are taking my JJ comments incorrectly - my bad. I'm not saying that he'll win a Slam in a year, but that he's about a year away from seriously challenging for a win - that it is possible that he gets there in about a year. My guess is that for the next two or three Slams he fluctuates in the 3R - QF range, maybe sneaking into a SF, but that he will make a Final at some point, possibly as soon as next year. I'd love to see him and Delpo go at it.

El, I like JJ. It was a lot of fun to see his fire, to see him serve and volley - all good.

But he has some technical improvements to make with his groundstrokes. Even with his serve, he had little or no variation other than hard and harder. Somewhere through the 2nd set, Murray figured out the timing and as big as JJ served he started seeing the balls coming back.

Meanwhile, he's on the radar now and the top players and their coaches will all be working on figuring out how best to exploint JJ's weaknesses. Hopefully he remains focused and disciplined so that he can improve quickly. Seems like a neat guy.

He actually used the slider outwide really well in other matches, but didn't seem to utilize it well against murray, where in general he served far below his best. He should have served with more variation against murray, but I think he can. He also has a pretty mean kicker. Overall he didn't play too well against murray. Some of that was murray's play, some the moment, and some being flat. He definitely needs to work on things, but I don't think he is as far as you say, if he can continue to develop the champion mentality (which he is much further along than all the other young guys).

 

[fedfan]

Its amazing that in the past 11 years, only 4 players have won the tournament. fed 7x, rafa 2x, and djoker and murray once. Really speaks a lot about this generation. Thats how hard it is for others to break through. I honestly hope fed sticks around and plays competitive tennis. god am i going to miss him if he stops making 2nd week of slams.
that said i think both murray and djoker will win more slams. If rafa is healthy he has a good shot at beating feds record (im gonna hate that day if it happens). other than that i expect the slams to be contested by the top 3 from now on. maybe delpo will join them. fed is an enigma at this point. if he does win US open this will mark the second time that same four men won a slam each for second straight year. keeping my fingers crossed he can make that happen. however ill say djoker is the slight favorite to win US open imo.

Never say never and I don't want to jinx the slam race, but I think Fed's 17 is safe regarding Rafa. I think eventually someone will top 17, but no one in this era IMO.

Three years here ago I predicted it would end 17-15. I think the 17 will prove to be accurate for Roger and think Rafa has an outside chance at 15, but will be shocked if gets 16. Those knees aren't getting any younger.

We will see. I honestly can see Rafa winning 4-5 more RG's. I think a year like this proves that movement is secondary for him there, it is mainly about the forehand. And he will be making that ball jump up ridiculously high for as long as he plays because that is mostly about his physical strength which doesn't decline until much later. Aside from Djokovic and his own health there are absolutely no threats there. Not even a 1 out of 50 chance of an upset threat.

Fed's 17 will fall either in 4-5 years to Nadal or within 15 years to a player we haven't seen yet. Believe it or not, the 17 was not setting the bar that high given today's conditions (everyone playing the same style, courts playing more similar). Roger was a late bloomer and he left a lot of slams on the table by not closing out some matches he should have. Ironically, the 17 will prove to be one of his easiest records to break. Now if he can somehow add another couple slams then it will be a different story.

At 27 and with all that mileage on already fragile knees, if you think Rafa will honestly win another 4-5 RGs...keep in mind that's 12-13 FO titles...you might want to put down the bottle. As great as Rafa is on clay and he's undoubtably the best ever...that's simply unrealistic considering his age, knee history and naturally declining health that comes with father time. At 24, quite possibly yes...but not now. Nole came within a wisker this year and the older Rafa gets obviously the more difficult it will become to keep racking up those titles. He is human after all.

Rafa currently has a RECORD nine straight years winning a slam. You do realize you are talking now 13-14 straight years with a slam? With his knee history I don't think he'll even be playing the ATP Tour into his early 30s. Just being realistic here.

A lot of people have been saying that same thing since Nadal had his first serious injury in 2009 if not before, and here he is still destroying all but one player at RG. I do think with the diminished movement it will be hard for him to win another one off clay but on clay he doesn't even need to move that well and I still think he would be the favorite. There it is more about the spin while adding on the amazing movement/defense just has made him almost impossible to beat. Aside from injuries Nole is the only one who can stop him at RG in the next 3-4 years, I see absolutely no other threats.

And he was 23 in 2009....which is reinforces my point. Those knees have accumulated a ton a mileage/damage since then and it's just a matter of time before the wheels go.

In 06 Wimbly Rafa took Fed to 4 sets, 07 took him to 5, the next year he beat Fed. The same scenario is being painted out with Nole at RG and I think Nole gets him next year. The older he gets the more susceptible he'll be to others as well... it's a just a natural progression and think you are underestimating father time. With that said I think Rafa has possibly 1 maybe 2 left at RG and 1-2 from the other three combined.

Father time...happens to all the greats.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Yeah, I had my doubts and still do a bit. I just don't see him devoting much time to hards and that means he may gradually revert to what he came to fame as--the great clay court destroyer. Even that, though, will be tougher than it was even three years ago--even though he is Rafa. I would like to see him win another hard court slam, but I think it is going to be awfully tough for him; he is more vulnerable on that surface and always has been through the years. Even so, he is still in the top three or four players on hards regardless, and that is quite a testament to him after all these years.

Rafa's biggest obstacle on the hc is Djoker.. I am not saying that he cant defeat Nole but it always comes at a price. That being said Rafa has got to move up to the 2nd ranking which puts a Murray/Djoker semi back into play although it has typically come down to Nadal\Murray.:angel:

 

[herios]

Also, I think people are taking my JJ comments incorrectly - my bad. I'm not saying that he'll win a Slam in a year, but that he's about a year away from seriously challenging for a win - that it is possible that he gets there in about a year. My guess is that for the next two or three Slams he fluctuates in the 3R - QF range, maybe sneaking into a SF, but that he will make a Final at some point, possibly as soon as next year. I'd love to see him and Delpo go at it.

El, I like JJ. It was a lot of fun to see his fire, to see him serve and volley - all good.

But he has some technical improvements to make with his groundstrokes. Even with his serve, he had little or no variation other than hard and harder. Somewhere through the 2nd set, Murray figured out the timing and as big as JJ served he started seeing the balls coming back.

Meanwhile, he's on the radar now and the top players and their coaches will all be working on figuring out how best to exploint JJ's weaknesses. Hopefully he remains focused and disciplined so that he can improve quickly. Seems like a neat guy.

He actually used the slider outwide really well in other matches, but didn't seem to utilize it well against murray, where in general he served far below his best. He should have served with more variation against murray, but I think he can. He also has a pretty mean kicker. Overall he didn't play too well against murray. Some of that was murray's play, some the moment, and some being flat. He definitely needs to work on things, but I don't think he is as far as you say, if he can continue to develop the champion mentality (which he is much further along than all the other young guys).

Correct, he hasn't played his best in the SF, and I was not surprised to see him a bit below his previous matches, understandable. considering this was his first deep run in a slam for him in 3 of 5.
But he is young and he'll develop and become stronger technically, emotionally as well. Once again, this was the deepest run of a young player since Cilic in 2010, who we know now doesn't show a lot of desire and will and therefore, he has been for now a one time wonder. JJ is made of different material. Of the younger generation, he'll be a leader I am sure of that.

 

[Moxie]

I actually don't see Rafa winning too many more slams either. He's at the stage in his career where Federer was in 2008. Everything was relatively easy up to that point a few hiccups aside, but getting the 13th, 14th and 15th were complete torture for him.

I might be wrong (I never really expected him to beat Novak in the RG final like he did with only a few matches under his belt) and he might indeed surprise everyone with a long career. But somehow I think his later career will probably be a relatively harsh fall, somewhat like what happened to Hewitt when he lost his wheels.

You may have a point there, haelfix, but let's hope he can continue to play at a great level for a few more years. You gotta love and respect his fight.

Yes, I think you do have to respect his fight, and if, to Haelfix's point, it was torture for Fed to win his 13th-15th titles, I think Rafa is just your man for suffering similar torture. By which I expect that means getting past mostly Djokovic and Murray. Rafa has shown the will to come back strong, so I don't see that we need to write his epitaph just yet. Those who were writing Roger's too early know what I'm talking about.

 

[Didi]

On a sidenote, EL Dude, it would be much appreciated if you could find some time to post an updated version of your grand slam quotient rankings for the best 50 players in the Open Era based on your point awarding system you came up with some time ago. I am curious to know where Murray currently stands in comparison to the likes of Roddick, Hewitt, Safin, Kuerten, Courier, Vilas etc.

As for Wimbledon, I have missed the semis and the final due to holidays but catched up on them a bit later. I have to say that I do wonder what happened to Djokovic. When the ships are down these days his entire approach and mindset looks tense, reluctant and full of doubts like pre-2011. He is still rightly the best player in the world and will very likely deservedly finish the season as number 1 for the third straight year but sorry I cannot help myself here, just thinking that this is yet another lost season for him in terms of grand slams. He is in his absolute prime and supposed to rack up slams, not witnessing one frustrating loss after another.

No matter how we look at it, the frustrating losses in big matches really start to add up. It started with the RG final 2012, then the subsequent Wimbledon semis, then the Olympics, then the US Open final, this years RG semifinal and now a blowout loss in straights to Murray in the finals of Wimbledon. This is poor and not really what one would call the prime time of a career. He has not won a slam outside of the AO since the USO 2011. Instead of gunning for Nadals slam count which turns out to be a much harder feat to achieve than we have all originally thought, he is more and more losing ground to Murray, trailing 1-2 in slam finals in the past 12 months.

If he does not respond to this negative trend and ends up having yet another frustrating result at the US Open, I am afraid the ship for catching Fedal might have finally sailed and instead he will have to worry more about Murray catching up. As Darth Fed rightly pointed out, this upcoming US Open is going to be huge for the legacy of Nole. With Murray now relieved, Del Potro and Jerzy catching fire, Fed gunning for NYC and Nadal still in the mix, it is going to be a great US Open, that is for sure. But as an admirer of Djokovic I am afraid I do not know where does he go from here?