Reflections & Questions from Wimbledon

[El Dude]

What have we come out of Wimbledon with? What reflections and questions? A few things come to mind:

- Andy Murray is now truly an elite player, not simply "best of the rest" or even "worst of the best" but right there with Novak Djokovic and Rafa Nadal

- Jerzy Janowicz is for real. He might be a year away from a Slam win, but he's not going away and is getting better

- Juan Martin Del Potro played a great tournament and looks better than he has in years, maybe even a darkhorse candidate to take the US Open

- Is Rafa done as a serious Wimbledon threat?

- How far gone is Roger, and can he come back?

- Of the young guns, only JJ and Bernard Tomic really impressed; Dimitrov has a ways to go yet and Raonic is stagnating (at best)

 

[Kieran]

You should have numbered them. So:

1. Andy? Yes.

2. JJ? No.

3. JMDP? Yes.

4. Rafa? No.

5. Roger? Don't write him off yet...

 

[El Dude]

I'm not writing Roger off yet. But again, even if he comes back and wins the US Open I just can't see him sustaining a dominant level. He's clearly slipped below the other three.

As for JJ, let me clarify. I don't think he's arrived as an elite player - and may never be one - but I do think he's very close to the next group. Not quite there with the second tier of Del POtro, Ferrer, Berdych and Tsonga, but I think he's in that third group with Gasquet, Wawrinka (the good version), etc - and may even surpass them shortly and join the second tier.

 

[nehmeth]

You should have numbered them. So:

1. Andy? Yes.

2. JJ? No.

3. JMDP? Yes.

4. Rafa? No.

5. Roger? Don't write him off yet...

El Dude - if you're ticking boxes, copy my answers the same as Kieran's.

 

[DarthFed]

You should have numbered them. So:

1. Andy? Yes.

2. JJ? No.

3. JMDP? Yes.

4. Rafa? No.

5. Roger? Don't write him off yet...

El Dude - if you're ticking boxes, copy my answers the same as Kieran's.

Same here except for point 2 I'd say JJ is more than a year away from a GS but he could be a force next year and a serious contender the year after.

 

[crystalfire]

Its amazing that in the past 11 years, only 4 players have won the tournament. fed 7x, rafa 2x, and djoker and murray once. Really speaks a lot about this generation. Thats how hard it is for others to break through. I honestly hope fed sticks around and plays competitive tennis. god am i going to miss him if he stops making 2nd week of slams.
that said i think both murray and djoker will win more slams. If rafa is healthy he has a good shot at beating feds record (im gonna hate that day if it happens). other than that i expect the slams to be contested by the top 3 from now on. maybe delpo will join them. fed is an enigma at this point. if he does win US open this will mark the second time that same four men won a slam each for second straight year. keeping my fingers crossed he can make that happen. however ill say djoker is the slight favorite to win US open imo.

 

[fedfan]

Its amazing that in the past 11 years, only 4 players have won the tournament. fed 7x, rafa 2x, and djoker and murray once. Really speaks a lot about this generation. Thats how hard it is for others to break through. I honestly hope fed sticks around and plays competitive tennis. god am i going to miss him if he stops making 2nd week of slams.
that said i think both murray and djoker will win more slams. If rafa is healthy he has a good shot at beating feds record (im gonna hate that day if it happens). other than that i expect the slams to be contested by the top 3 from now on. maybe delpo will join them. fed is an enigma at this point. if he does win US open this will mark the second time that same four men won a slam each for second straight year. keeping my fingers crossed he can make that happen. however ill say djoker is the slight favorite to win US open imo.

Never say never and I don't want to jinx the slam race, but I think Fed's 17 is safe regarding Rafa. I think eventually someone will top 17, but no one in this era IMO.

Three years here ago I predicted it would end 17-15. I think the 17 will prove to be accurate for Roger and think Rafa has an outside chance at 15, but will be shocked if gets 16. Those knees aren't getting any younger.

 

[DarthFed]

Its amazing that in the past 11 years, only 4 players have won the tournament. fed 7x, rafa 2x, and djoker and murray once. Really speaks a lot about this generation. Thats how hard it is for others to break through. I honestly hope fed sticks around and plays competitive tennis. god am i going to miss him if he stops making 2nd week of slams.
that said i think both murray and djoker will win more slams. If rafa is healthy he has a good shot at beating feds record (im gonna hate that day if it happens). other than that i expect the slams to be contested by the top 3 from now on. maybe delpo will join them. fed is an enigma at this point. if he does win US open this will mark the second time that same four men won a slam each for second straight year. keeping my fingers crossed he can make that happen. however ill say djoker is the slight favorite to win US open imo.

Never say never and I don't want to jinx the slam race, but I think Fed's 17 is safe regarding Rafa. I think eventually someone will top 17, but no one in this era IMO.

Three years here ago I predicted it would end 17-15. I think the 17 will prove to be accurate for Roger and think Rafa has an outside chance at 15, but will be shocked if gets 16. Those knees aren't getting any younger.

We will see. I honestly can see Rafa winning 4-5 more RG's. I think a year like this proves that movement is secondary for him there, it is mainly about the forehand. And he will be making that ball jump up ridiculously high for as long as he plays because that is mostly about his physical strength which doesn't decline until much later. Aside from Djokovic and his own health there are absolutely no threats there. Not even a 1 out of 50 chance of an upset threat.

Fed's 17 will fall either in 4-5 years to Nadal or within 15 years to a player we haven't seen yet. Believe it or not, the 17 was not setting the bar that high given today's conditions (everyone playing the same style, courts playing more similar). Roger was a late bloomer and he left a lot of slams on the table by not closing out some matches he should have. Ironically, the 17 will prove to be one of his easiest records to break. Now if he can somehow add another couple slams then it will be a different story.

 

[shawnbm]

I basically echo what kieran wrote above.

 

[Andrew William]

Ayup. Kieran has the right of it.

 

[Moxie]

I agree with everyone, though I'm with El Dude in that I think Janowicz is likely to be more than a flash-in-the-pan. However, that remains to be seen, and we've been there with other likely candidates before. I like him, anyway, and think he has some steel in him.

 

[Moxie]

Its amazing that in the past 11 years, only 4 players have won the tournament. fed 7x, rafa 2x, and djoker and murray once. Really speaks a lot about this generation. Thats how hard it is for others to break through. I honestly hope fed sticks around and plays competitive tennis. god am i going to miss him if he stops making 2nd week of slams.
that said i think both murray and djoker will win more slams. If rafa is healthy he has a good shot at beating feds record (im gonna hate that day if it happens). other than that i expect the slams to be contested by the top 3 from now on. maybe delpo will join them. fed is an enigma at this point. if he does win US open this will mark the second time that same four men won a slam each for second straight year. keeping my fingers crossed he can make that happen. however ill say djoker is the slight favorite to win US open imo.

Never say never and I don't want to jinx the slam race, but I think Fed's 17 is safe regarding Rafa. I think eventually someone will top 17, but no one in this era IMO.

Three years here ago I predicted it would end 17-15. I think the 17 will prove to be accurate for Roger and think Rafa has an outside chance at 15, but will be shocked if gets 16. Those knees aren't getting any younger.

We will see. I honestly can see Rafa winning 4-5 more RG's. I think a year like this proves that movement is secondary for him there, it is mainly about the forehand. And he will be making that ball jump up ridiculously high for as long as he plays because that is mostly about his physical strength which doesn't decline until much later. Aside from Djokovic and his own health there are absolutely no threats there. Not even a 1 out of 50 chance of an upset threat.

Fed's 17 will fall either in 4-5 years to Nadal or within 15 years to a player we haven't seen yet. Believe it or not, the 17 was not setting the bar that high given today's conditions (everyone playing the same style, courts playing more similar). Roger was a late bloomer and he left a lot of slams on the table by not closing out some matches he should have. Ironically, the 17 will prove to be one of his easiest records to break. Now if he can somehow add another couple slams then it will be a different story.

I like your thinking, Darth, about Rafa and RG. I do think that the future for Rafa and Roger is a bit of a mystery, due to Roger's age and Rafa's knees. I'm hoping that, at a minimum that Nadal passes Pete and gets to 15. If he wins a Slam outside of RG in the next year and a half, and holds at RG, that is likely.

I'm not sure about your theory that Fed's 17, if it doesn't fall to Rafa, (and obviously, it depends on if he improves on it,) will fall to another player in 15 years. It could happen, of course. Everyone thought Pete's record would stand for a while. But we'd be looking for a phenom, and we haven't yet seen the rise of one. The more likely scenario is that, when the Big 4 stop featuring, we go back to a period of players trading Slams and weeks at #1, a few at a time. There is a bit of a dead-zone in the current mid-level of talent, and until another super-star arises, they're going to debate each other, MS by MS and Slam to Slam, but no one in the current crop seems ready to rise high enough to dominate to the point of garnering 18 Slams. I know you said that's a player-to-be-named later, we're still waiting for that player.

 

[Riotbeard]

What have we come out of Wimbledon with? What reflections and questions? A few things come to mind:

- Andy Murray is now truly an elite player, not simply "best of the rest" or even "worst of the best" but right there with Novak Djokovic and Rafa Nadal

- Jerzy Janowicz is for real. He might be a year away from a Slam win, but he's not going away and is getting better

- Juan Martin Del Potro played a great tournament and looks better than he has in years, maybe even a darkhorse candidate to take the US Open

- Is Rafa done as a serious Wimbledon threat?

- How far gone is Roger, and can he come back?

- Of the young guns, only JJ and Bernard Tomic really impressed; Dimitrov has a ways to go yet and Raonic is stagnating (at best)

I think these are mostly pretty accurate. I think JJ winning a slam in the next year is optomistic, but I think JJ winning slams eventually is very realistic but not guaranteed.

 

[crystalfire]

Its amazing that in the past 11 years, only 4 players have won the tournament. fed 7x, rafa 2x, and djoker and murray once. Really speaks a lot about this generation. Thats how hard it is for others to break through. I honestly hope fed sticks around and plays competitive tennis. god am i going to miss him if he stops making 2nd week of slams.
that said i think both murray and djoker will win more slams. If rafa is healthy he has a good shot at beating feds record (im gonna hate that day if it happens). other than that i expect the slams to be contested by the top 3 from now on. maybe delpo will join them. fed is an enigma at this point. if he does win US open this will mark the second time that same four men won a slam each for second straight year. keeping my fingers crossed he can make that happen. however ill say djoker is the slight favorite to win US open imo.

Never say never and I don't want to jinx the slam race, but I think Fed's 17 is safe regarding Rafa. I think eventually someone will top 17, but no one in this era IMO.

Three years here ago I predicted it would end 17-15. I think the 17 will prove to be accurate for Roger and think Rafa has an outside chance at 15, but will be shocked if gets 16. Those knees aren't getting any younger.

We will see. I honestly can see Rafa winning 4-5 more RG's. I think a year like this proves that movement is secondary for him there, it is mainly about the forehand. And he will be making that ball jump up ridiculously high for as long as he plays because that is mostly about his physical strength which doesn't decline until much later. Aside from Djokovic and his own health there are absolutely no threats there. Not even a 1 out of 50 chance of an upset threat.

Fed's 17 will fall either in 4-5 years to Nadal or within 15 years to a player we haven't seen yet. Believe it or not, the 17 was not setting the bar that high given today's conditions (everyone playing the same style, courts playing more similar). Roger was a late bloomer and he left a lot of slams on the table by not closing out some matches he should have. Ironically, the 17 will prove to be one of his easiest records to break. Now if he can somehow add another couple slams then it will be a different story.

I like your thinking, Darth, about Rafa and RG. I do think that the future for Rafa and Roger is a bit of a mystery, due to Roger's age and Rafa's knees. I'm hoping that, at a minimum that Nadal passes Pete and gets to 15. If he wins a Slam outside of RG in the next year and a half, and holds at RG, that is likely.

I'm not sure about your theory that Fed's 17, if it doesn't fall to Rafa, (and obviously, it depends on if he improves on it,) will fall to another player in 15 years. It could happen, of course. Everyone thought Pete's record would stand for a while. But we'd be looking for a phenom, and we haven't yet seen the rise of one. The more likely scenario is that, when the Big 4 stop featuring, we go back to a period of players trading Slams and weeks at #1, a few at a time. There is a bit of a dead-zone in the current mid-level of talent, and until another super-star arises, they're going to debate each other, MS by MS and Slam to Slam, but no one in the current crop seems ready to rise high enough to dominate to the point of garnering 18 Slams. I know you said that's a player-to-be-named later, we're still waiting for that player.

def agree that rafa will win a few more french opens. that in itself should get him to 14 or 15. depending on his health he could very well win others.

 

[DarthFed]

Its amazing that in the past 11 years, only 4 players have won the tournament. fed 7x, rafa 2x, and djoker and murray once. Really speaks a lot about this generation. Thats how hard it is for others to break through. I honestly hope fed sticks around and plays competitive tennis. god am i going to miss him if he stops making 2nd week of slams.
that said i think both murray and djoker will win more slams. If rafa is healthy he has a good shot at beating feds record (im gonna hate that day if it happens). other than that i expect the slams to be contested by the top 3 from now on. maybe delpo will join them. fed is an enigma at this point. if he does win US open this will mark the second time that same four men won a slam each for second straight year. keeping my fingers crossed he can make that happen. however ill say djoker is the slight favorite to win US open imo.

Never say never and I don't want to jinx the slam race, but I think Fed's 17 is safe regarding Rafa. I think eventually someone will top 17, but no one in this era IMO.

Three years here ago I predicted it would end 17-15. I think the 17 will prove to be accurate for Roger and think Rafa has an outside chance at 15, but will be shocked if gets 16. Those knees aren't getting any younger.

We will see. I honestly can see Rafa winning 4-5 more RG's. I think a year like this proves that movement is secondary for him there, it is mainly about the forehand. And he will be making that ball jump up ridiculously high for as long as he plays because that is mostly about his physical strength which doesn't decline until much later. Aside from Djokovic and his own health there are absolutely no threats there. Not even a 1 out of 50 chance of an upset threat.

Fed's 17 will fall either in 4-5 years to Nadal or within 15 years to a player we haven't seen yet. Believe it or not, the 17 was not setting the bar that high given today's conditions (everyone playing the same style, courts playing more similar). Roger was a late bloomer and he left a lot of slams on the table by not closing out some matches he should have. Ironically, the 17 will prove to be one of his easiest records to break. Now if he can somehow add another couple slams then it will be a different story.

I like your thinking, Darth, about Rafa and RG. I do think that the future for Rafa and Roger is a bit of a mystery, due to Roger's age and Rafa's knees. I'm hoping that, at a minimum that Nadal passes Pete and gets to 15. If he wins a Slam outside of RG in the next year and a half, and holds at RG, that is likely.

I'm not sure about your theory that Fed's 17, if it doesn't fall to Rafa, (and obviously, it depends on if he improves on it,) will fall to another player in 15 years. It could happen, of course. Everyone thought Pete's record would stand for a while. But we'd be looking for a phenom, and we haven't yet seen the rise of one. The more likely scenario is that, when the Big 4 stop featuring, we go back to a period of players trading Slams and weeks at #1, a few at a time. There is a bit of a dead-zone in the current mid-level of talent, and until another super-star arises, they're going to debate each other, MS by MS and Slam to Slam, but no one in the current crop seems ready to rise high enough to dominate to the point of garnering 18 Slams. I know you said that's a player-to-be-named later, we're still waiting for that player.

Of all the complaining that the Pistol used to do the one thing he said that I agree with is that it is easier to win slams in bunches in the modern game. If you're the best baseliner in the world you are automatically one of if not the favorite at all the slams. Roger in his prime was enormous favorite at everything except RG. Currently, Nole is probably considered favorite at 2 of the 4 slams and 2nd at the other 2, etc. Upsets are tougher to come by because players are mostly only playing against one style. Clearly there are no up and comers that will threaten 17 but I think that only makes it more likely that someone climbing the ranks will eventually take over the game at possibly a younger age than Fed did.

Rafa unfortunately was so strong early that even though he has only had 2 truly great years he is a serious threat to top the record. Despite all his complaining about the schedule, his health, etc. he has actually aged pretty well. Some people tend to forget that Roger has only won 1 slam since he was 28 1/2. He has aged just OK imo. Clearly he was never going to become a scrub but I don't think he is better at age 31 than many would have expected, which is why I wonder how much is motivation at this point.

 

[El Dude]

I really doubt that Rafa wins 6 more Slams to break Roger's record. I'm thinking 2-3 more, that he'll end with 14-15. We shouldn't forget that Novak almost beat him this year and that match really could have gone either way. Who is to say that Novak won't win it next year.

I suppose Rafa could win another Slam or two outside of Roland Garros, but even though Roger declining makes it a bit easier, now Andy's taken his place and Rafa would have to get by Novak and Andy.

Note also that Rafa is 27, will be 28-30 for the next three Slam seasons. Do we really see him winning Roland Garros in his 30s? That seems optimistic to me.

All things told I see 2-3 more French Opens, and 0-2 more Slams, which is a range of 2-5, or 14-17 total. So tying Roger is his absolute limit, in my opinion, and if he does it he'll be 31 or 32 when he wins his 17th and I can't see him winning one after about 31.

---

Also, I think people are taking my JJ comments incorrectly - my bad. I'm not saying that he'll win a Slam in a year, but that he's about a year away from seriously challenging for a win - that it is possible that he gets there in about a year. My guess is that for the next two or three Slams he fluctuates in the 3R - QF range, maybe sneaking into a SF, but that he will make a Final at some point, possibly as soon as next year. I'd love to see him and Delpo go at it.

 

[nehmeth]

Also, I think people are taking my JJ comments incorrectly - my bad. I'm not saying that he'll win a Slam in a year, but that he's about a year away from seriously challenging for a win - that it is possible that he gets there in about a year. My guess is that for the next two or three Slams he fluctuates in the 3R - QF range, maybe sneaking into a SF, but that he will make a Final at some point, possibly as soon as next year. I'd love to see him and Delpo go at it.

El, I like JJ. It was a lot of fun to see his fire, to see him serve and volley - all good.

But he has some technical improvements to make with his groundstrokes. Even with his serve, he had little or no variation other than hard and harder. Somewhere through the 2nd set, Murray figured out the timing and as big as JJ served he started seeing the balls coming back.

Meanwhile, he's on the radar now and the top players and their coaches will all be working on figuring out how best to exploint JJ's weaknesses. Hopefully he remains focused and disciplined so that he can improve quickly. Seems like a neat guy.

 

[Mog]

eak

I really doubt that Rafa wins 6 more Slams to break Roger's record. I'm thinking 2-3 more, that he'll end with 14-15. We shouldn't forget that Novak almost beat him this year and that match really could have gone either way. Who is to say that Novak won't win it next year.

I suppose Rafa could win another Slam or two outside of Roland Garros, but even though Roger declining makes it a bit easier, now Andy's taken his place and Rafa would have to get by Novak and Andy.

Note also that Rafa is 27, will be 28-30 for the next three Slam seasons. Do we really see him winning Roland Garros in his 30s? That seems optimistic to me.

All things told I see 2-3 more French Opens, and 0-2 more Slams, which is a range of 2-5, or 14-17 total. So tying Roger is his absolute limit, in my opinion, and if he does it he'll be 31 or 32 when he wins his 17th and I can't see him winning one after about 31u

El , I think you have made a good assessment about reaching or breaking Federer`s record. When Federer reached #12 slam the discussion was whether he would break Pete`s record of 14 slams. He did break and now at 17 slams record, For sometime it seemed that record will be difficult to break. But then came Nadal and then many including some pros thought Nadal will break and could win up to 20 + slams.
Now it seems Federer`s 17 slams record is beatable. It could be but I think not during the most recent time.
I think Nadal has one(two at the most) RG. His knee problems and Djokovic and Murray will be his problems. At other slams Murray, Djokovic or someone else will be the major factors to splits the slams. As you said Rafa could have one more slam outside RG.
I think Murray or Djokovic will have long way to go to break the record as I think they will split the slams between the two in few years at Aus, Wim and USO or perhaps someone else will come by.
I think Rafa will most get to 15 slams.

 

[fedfan]

Its amazing that in the past 11 years, only 4 players have won the tournament. fed 7x, rafa 2x, and djoker and murray once. Really speaks a lot about this generation. Thats how hard it is for others to break through. I honestly hope fed sticks around and plays competitive tennis. god am i going to miss him if he stops making 2nd week of slams.
that said i think both murray and djoker will win more slams. If rafa is healthy he has a good shot at beating feds record (im gonna hate that day if it happens). other than that i expect the slams to be contested by the top 3 from now on. maybe delpo will join them. fed is an enigma at this point. if he does win US open this will mark the second time that same four men won a slam each for second straight year. keeping my fingers crossed he can make that happen. however ill say djoker is the slight favorite to win US open imo.

Never say never and I don't want to jinx the slam race, but I think Fed's 17 is safe regarding Rafa. I think eventually someone will top 17, but no one in this era IMO.

Three years here ago I predicted it would end 17-15. I think the 17 will prove to be accurate for Roger and think Rafa has an outside chance at 15, but will be shocked if gets 16. Those knees aren't getting any younger.

We will see. I honestly can see Rafa winning 4-5 more RG's. I think a year like this proves that movement is secondary for him there, it is mainly about the forehand. And he will be making that ball jump up ridiculously high for as long as he plays because that is mostly about his physical strength which doesn't decline until much later. Aside from Djokovic and his own health there are absolutely no threats there. Not even a 1 out of 50 chance of an upset threat.

Fed's 17 will fall either in 4-5 years to Nadal or within 15 years to a player we haven't seen yet. Believe it or not, the 17 was not setting the bar that high given today's conditions (everyone playing the same style, courts playing more similar). Roger was a late bloomer and he left a lot of slams on the table by not closing out some matches he should have. Ironically, the 17 will prove to be one of his easiest records to break. Now if he can somehow add another couple slams then it will be a different story.

At 27 and with all that mileage on already fragile knees, if you think Rafa will honestly win another 4-5 RGs...keep in mind that's 12-13 FO titles...you might want to put down the bottle. As great as Rafa is on clay and he's undoubtably the best ever...that's simply unrealistic considering his age, knee history and naturally declining health that comes with father time. At 24, quite possibly yes...but not now. Nole came within a wisker this year and the older Rafa gets obviously the more difficult it will become to keep racking up those titles. He is human after all.

Rafa currently has a RECORD nine straight years winning a slam. You do realize you are talking now 13-14 straight years with a slam? With his knee history I don't think he'll even be playing the ATP Tour into his early 30s. Just being realistic here.

 

[Haelfix]

I actually don't see Rafa winning too many more slams either. He's at the stage in his career where Federer was in 2008. Everything was relatively easy up to that point a few hiccups aside, but getting the 13th, 14th and 15th were complete torture for him.

I might be wrong (I never really expected him to beat Novak in the RG final like he did with only a few matches under his belt) and he might indeed surprise everyone with a long career. But somehow I think his later career will probably be a relatively harsh fall, somewhat like what happened to Hewitt when he lost his wheels.