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Sundaymorningguy

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Serena has to be #1 the week of September 12th to break it. Kerber can possibly come out of the Open as #1. Less than 200 points separate Serena and Kerber. Serena has less margin for error than Kerber. Serena is defending SF points where Kerber 3rd round. It will all depend on who makes it farther.
 

the AntiPusher

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Sundaymorningguy said:
Serena has to be #1 the week of September 12th to break it. Kerber can possibly come out of the Open as #1. Less than 200 points separate Serena and Kerber. Serena has less margin for error than Kerber. Serena is defending SF points where Kerber 3rd round. It will all depend on who makes it farther.

Thanks
 

GameSetAndMath

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the AntiPusher said:
Sundaymorningguy said:
Serena's ranking is safe for now. Damn Kerber is messing up at the home stretch as of late. Serena has to perform well at the US Open if she wants to keep it.

When Serena wins 3 matches in 2 weeks that will take her to the first weekend in September which will break the tie, correct?

I gave more detailed answer in the cincy thread. Basically, Serena needs to outperform Kerbie by 460 points at USO to break the record.
 

Sundaymorningguy

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I think Serena is going to need a lot of luck in the draw since her US Open prep has been terrible and coming in from nursing an injury.
 

the AntiPusher

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Sundaymorningguy said:
I think Serena is going to need a lot of luck in the draw since her US Open prep has been terrible and coming in from nursing an injury.

All Serena needs is her 1st and 2nd serve booming like Sampras..if all this holds true.the rest of her game will be built with confidence
 

GameSetAndMath

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Muguraza needs to outperform Serena by 510 points to displace Serena and become #1, a difficult task. Aga needs to outperform Serena by 1060 points to displace Serena, an improbable task Halep needs to outperform Serena by 1129 points, an almost impossible task. Others do not even have a mathematical chance.

Only w.r.t. Kerber, Serena needs to outperform rather than the other way around.
 

Sundaymorningguy

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the AntiPusher said:
Sundaymorningguy said:
I think Serena is going to need a lot of luck in the draw since her US Open prep has been terrible and coming in from nursing an injury.

All Serena needs is her 1st and 2nd serve booming like Sampras..if all this holds true.the rest of her game will be built with confidence

Which might be a very difficult ask if she is recovering from a shoulder injury. She might either be tentative or she might go for it as the last slam of the year and cause more harm.
 

the AntiPusher

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Sundaymorningguy said:
the AntiPusher said:
Sundaymorningguy said:
I think Serena is going to need a lot of luck in the draw since her US Open prep has been terrible and coming in from nursing an injury.

All Serena needs is her 1st and 2nd serve booming like Sampras..if all this holds true.the rest of her game will be built with confidence

Which might be a very difficult ask if she is recovering from a shoulder injury. She might either be tentative or she might go for it as the last slam of the year and cause more harm.

Confidence will mass somewhat the pain or the tendenotis that she says is affecting her. As long as it isn't a tear or similar injury, rest will be her antidote. At this point it's all about the serve which has evident at AO and RG but was able to bomb the serve at Wimbledon
 

the AntiPusher

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Sundaymorningguy said:
Serena has to be #1 the week of September 12th to break it. Kerber can possibly come out of the Open as #1. Less than 200 points separate Serena and Kerber. Serena has less margin for error than Kerber. Serena is defending SF points where Kerber 3rd round. It will all depend on who makes it farther.

Serena is guarantee at least a tie with Graf for the next 3 weeks.

http://tennismaniac.sportsblog.com/posts/24134687/serena-williams-will-tie-steffi-graf---s-record-of-186-consecutive-weeks-at--1.html

That's has to be gratifying for her and her team.:clap
 

GameSetAndMath

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the AntiPusher said:
Sundaymorningguy said:
Serena has to be #1 the week of September 12th to break it. Kerber can possibly come out of the Open as #1. Less than 200 points separate Serena and Kerber. Serena has less margin for error than Kerber. Serena is defending SF points where Kerber 3rd round. It will all depend on who makes it farther.

Serena is guarantee at least a tie with Graf for the next 3 weeks.

http://tennismaniac.sportsblog.com/posts/24134687/serena-williams-will-tie-steffi-graf---s-record-of-186-consecutive-weeks-at--1.html

That's has to be gratifying for her and her team.:clap

This was already pointed out. It is certainly a huge relief for Serena that this thing worked out, especially considering she did not have any say in it at the end.
 

britbox

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1 (1) Serena Williams(U.S.) 7050
2 (2) Angelique Kerber(Germany) 6860
3 (3) Garbine Muguruza Blanco(Spain) 5830
4 (4) Agnieszka Radwanska(Poland) 5705
5 (5) Simona Halep(Romania) 5151
6 (6) Venus Williams(U.S.) 4005
7 (7) Victoria Azarenka(Belarus) 3551
8 (8) Roberta Vinci(Italy) 3465
9 (9) Madison Keys(U.S.) 3286
10 (10) Svetlana Kuznetsova(Russia) 3190
11 (11) Karolina Pliskova(Czech Republic) 3135
12 (12) Carla Suarez Navarro(Spain) 3100
13 (13) Dominika Cibulkova(Slovakia) 3100
14 (14) Johanna Konta(Britain) 2905
15 (16) Timea Bacsinszky(Switzerland) 2713
16 (15) Petra Kvitova(Czech Republic) 2580
17 (17) Samantha Stosur(Australia) 2370
18 (18) Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova(Russia) 2195
19 (23) Elina Svitolina(Ukraine) 2101
20 (20) Elena Vesnina(Russia) 2054
21 (19) Barbora Strycova(Czech Republic) 2050
22 (21) Kiki Bertens(Netherlands) 1945
23 (22) Irina Begu(Romania) 1835
24 (24) Darya Kasatkina(Russia) 1773
25 (25) Sloane Stephens(U.S.) 1612
26 (26) Belinda Bencic(Switzerland) 1602
27 (28) Laura Siegemund(Germany) 1600
28 (29) Sara Errani(Italy) 1590
29 (36) Ekaterina Makarova(Russia) 1582
30 (30) CoCo Vandeweghe(U.S.) 1561
31 (31) Ana Ivanovic(Serbia) 1560
32 (32) Misaki Doi(Japan) 1555
33 (27) Caroline Garcia(France) 1555
34 (33) Timea Babos(Hungary) 1510
35 (34) Monica Puig(Puerto Rico) 1500
36 (39) Jelena Ostapenko(Latvia) 1495
37 (37) Kristina Mladenovic(France) 1470
38 (38) Yanina Wickmayer(Belgium) 1468
39 (40) Eugenie Bouchard(Canada) 1395
40 (41) Jelena Jankovic(Serbia) 1375
41 (42) Annika Beck(Germany) 1365
42 (43) Yulia Putintseva(Kazakhstan) 1320
43 (44) Andrea Petkovic(Germany) 1290
44 (35) Lucie Safarova(Czech Republic) 1180
45 (45) Daria Gavrilova(Australia) 1165
46 (46) Anna-Lena Friedsam(Germany) 1135
47 (62) Johanna Larsson(Sweden) 1110
48 (52) Anastasija Sevastova(Latvia) 1098
49 (55) Shelby Rogers(U.S.) 1068
50 (48) Madison Brengle(U.S.) 1055
51 (49) Zhang Shuai(China) 1048
52 (50) Yaroslava Shvedova(Kazakhstan) 1037
53 (47) Alize Cornet(France) 1022
54 (53) Danka Kovinic(Montenegro) 1020
55 (54) Christina McHale(U.S.) 1015
56 (68) Kirsten Flipkens(Belgium) 1000
57 (56) Mirjana Lucic-Baroni(Croatia) 993
58 (57) Monica Niculescu(Romania) 990
59 (58) Kateryna Bondarenko(Ukraine) 980
60 (59) Alison Riske(U.S.) 972
61 (60) Zheng Saisai(China) 970
62 (61) Wang Qiang(China) 964
63 (63) Pauline Parmentier(France) 939
64 (64) Julia Goerges(Germany) 935
65 (65) Viktorija Golubic(Switzerland) 929
66 (67) Cagla Buyukakcay(Turkey) 922
67 (66) Camila Giorgi(Italy) 920
68 (69) Varvara Lepchenko(U.S.) 908
69 (72) Nicole Gibbs(U.S.) 891
70 (70) Nao Hibino(Japan) 884
71 (71) Tsvetana Pironkova(Bulgaria) 881
72 (73) Katerina Siniakova(Czech Republic) 879
73 (75) Heather Watson(Britain) 872
74 (51) Caroline Wozniacki(Denmark) 871
75 (74) Irina Falconi(U.S.) 865
76 (79) Louisa Chirico(U.S.) 864
77 (76) Mariana Duque(Colombia) 863
78 (77) Kristina Kucova(Slovakia) 861
79 (78) Hsieh Su-Wei(Taiwan) 854
80 (81) Kurumi Nara(Japan) 828
81 (82) Naomi Osaka(Japan) 817
82 (83) Naomi Broady(Britain) 817
83 (84) Magda Linette(Poland) 793
84 (85) Sabine Lisicki(Germany) 791
85 (86) Anna Karolina Schmiedlova(Slovakia) 769
86 (88) Sorana Cirstea(Romania) 758
87 (87) Vania King(U.S.) 754
88 (89) Margarita Gasparyan(Russia) 743
89 (90) Denisa Allertova(Czech Republic) 729
90 (96) Anett Kontaveit(Estonia) 728
91 (91) Lara Arruabarrena Vecino(Spain) 728
92 (100) Ana Konjuh(Croatia) 719
93 (92) Kateryna Kozlova(Ukraine) 697
94 (94) Maria Sakkari(Greece) 695
95 (93) Maria Sharapova(Russia) 691
96 (97) Mona Barthel(Germany) 681
97 (95) Francesca Schiavone(Italy) 681
98 (102) Evgeniya Rodina(Russia) 674
99 (80) Lesia Tsurenko(Ukraine) 664
100 (98) Stefanie Voegele(Switzerland) 649
 

GameSetAndMath

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The number of players with a mathematical chance of grabbing #1 from Serena has reduced from 4 to 3 with the loss of Garbage. Kerber, Halep and Aga are still in the mix although only Kerber has a realistic chance.
 

HawkEye

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GameSetAndMath said:
The number of players with a mathematical chance of grabbing #1 from Serena has reduced from 4 to 3 with the loss of Garbage. Kerber, Halep and Aga are still in the mix although only Kerber has a realistic chance.

No, Aga doesn't even have a theoretical possibility. If she wins it all she still would have less points than Kerber.
 

10isfan

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Only three players can be number one at the end of USO: Serena, Kerber, Aga.
 

the AntiPusher

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10isfan said:
Only three players can be number one at the end of USO: Serena, Kerber, Aga.

You are saying because Aga has been finishing tournaments in the SHOW position(Win, Place or Show like in horseracing).. She can still finish the year number 1 ranked player. that's an amazing feat for her
 

GameSetAndMath

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Here is the ranking scenario in more detail.

As pointed out above, only Serena, Kerber or Aga can come out as #1 after USO.

1. In order to possibly remain #1, Serena must reach at least SF independent of what other players do.
2. If Kerber reaches quarterfinals, Serena will lose #1 if Serena does not reach the finals.
3. If Kerber loses in the quarterfinals or semifinals, Serena can retain #1 just by reaching the finals.
4. If Kerber wins the semifinals, Serena needs to reach the finals and win the final against Kerbie to retain #1.
5. In order for Aga to come out as #1 she needs to win USO outright and even then Aga would not be #1 if Kerber reaches the finals (in this case Kerbie will be #1 and Aga #2).

The above covers all possible situations.
 

GameSetAndMath

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Here is the latest situation for Serena (as Kerbie reached QF).

a. Serena must reach finals; otherwise she loses #1 ranking.
b. Once there, if Kerber is across the net she needs to win the finals to retain #1.
c. If Kerber is not across the net, just reaching the final would do to retain #1.