Rankings with 2012 Wimbledon points off (re: Federer)

[El Dude]

1. Djokovic 11120
2. Murray 7370
3. Ferrer 6870
4. Nadal 6860
5. Federer 5750
6. Berdych 4515
7. Del Potro 3790
8. Tsonga 3445
9. Gasquet 2965
10. Wawrinka 2915

Uh-oh, Roger is in trouble. Let's say that he loses to Rafa in the QF, he only gets 360 points. Let's say Ferrer loses in the SF (720), Murray also in the SF (720), and we have a Novak-Rafa final, with Rafa winning. We'd get the following:

1. Djokovic 12320
2. Nadal 8860
3. Murray 8090
4. Ferrer 7590
5. Federer 6110

Or you could have Novak winning and Rafa losing in the Final, and then Rafa slips just behind Andy - but either way, the point is that Federer is solidly #5 after Wimbledon if he loses to Rafa in the QF - and he'll have a lot of points to make up to even catch Ferrer. He can theoretically make up some points with a better US Open, but it will still be difficult to make it back into the top 4.

By the way, Roger hasn't been ranked outside of the top 4 since June 23 of 2003 - so it is a fully 10 years.

 

[herios]

RE: Rankings with 2012 Wimbledon points off (Federer)

1. Djokovic 11120
2. Murray 7370
3. Ferrer 6870
4. Nadal 6860
5. Federer 5750
6. Berdych 4515
7. Del Potro 3790
8. Tsonga 3445
9. Gasquet 2965
10. Wawrinka 2915

Uh-oh, Roger is in trouble. Let's say that he loses to Rafa in the QF, he only gets 360 points. Let's say Ferrer loses in the SF (720), Murray also in the SF (720), and we have a Novak-Rafa final, with Rafa winning. We'd get the following:

1. Djokovic 12320
2. Nadal 8860
3. Murray 8090
4. Ferrer 7590
5. Federer 6110

Or you could have Novak winning and Rafa losing in the Final, and then Rafa slips just behind Andy - but either way, the point is that Federer is solidly #5 after Wimbledon if he loses to Rafa in the QF - and he'll have a lot of points to make up to even catch Ferrer. He can theoretically make up some points with a better US Open, but it will still be difficult to make it back into the top 4.

By the way, Roger hasn't been ranked outside of the top 4 since June 23 of 2003 - so it is a fully 10 years.

I said it before, it will be Roger's turn to be seeded 5th in a slam, very high probability it will happen at the USO.
Well, he enjoyed a heck of a ride for the last decade, didn't he?

 

[Front242]

Although there's a high probability Fed will drop to number 5 there's still a lot of tennis to be played yet before any of these scenarios happen. We may see upsets in week 1. You never know. Or unexpected quarter final results.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Roger can make up some ground if he does well at Roger's cup which he did not play in last year. But as far as I remember, David did not play it either, so...

 

[Front242]

Ferrer plays practically every tournament (3 more than Roger so far this year) so once he gets ahead it'll be hard for Roger to pass him. Later in the year Ferrer is defending Paris and I've a hard time seeing him defend there so potential points drops for him there. Ferrer's number 3 in the race to London now. Would love to see Tommy Haas qualify for the WTF and I'm hoping he does well rest of the year to achieve this and it'll cheer me up if Fed doesn't do well rest of the year. Amazing that Haas has never played at the WTF.

 

[reddy]

Federer's 450 Olympic points also drop off in August. If he exits at the QF at Wimby, far from making up ground by the USO, to stay put Fed will have to win one title and make the final at the other at Cincy/Roger's cup combo.

I still think that Fed has a decent chance to end the year @ #4, as Front said,primarily because Ferrer has quite a few points to defend at year end and it isn't likely that Ferrer wins Bercy again.

 

[Moxie]

I know we're talking about Federer here, but it should be noted what Murray is up against in the next couple of months, too: he's defending the final at Wimbledon, he loses 750 pts from the Olympics, and he's defending the W at USO. A couple of missteps and he could sink rather quickly.

 

[tented]

RE: Rankings with 2012 Wimbledon points off (Federer)

I know we're talking about Federer here, but it should be noted what Murray is up against in the next couple of months, too: he's defending the final at Wimbledon, he loses 750 pts from the Olympics, and he's defending the W at USO. A couple of missteps and he could sink rather quickly.

Excellent point. It will be an exciting second half of the year, beginning with Wimbledon. Theoretically, Roger could walk away from there ranked anywhere from No. 2 to No. 6 (maybe even 7?).

 

[rafanoy1992]

RE: Rankings with 2012 Wimbledon points off (Federer)

I know we're talking about Federer here, but it should be noted what Murray is up against in the next couple of months, too: he's defending the final at Wimbledon, he loses 750 pts from the Olympics, and he's defending the W at USO. A couple of missteps and he could sink rather quickly.

But at the same time, Moxie, Murray is only defending 90 points on Canada and Cincinnati. So there's a high chance he could gain some ground over there.

Nadal is really the only player who doesn't have to defend any points after Wimbledon. But, I doubt he will play well on Canada and Cincinnati.

 

[Front242]

RE: Rankings with 2012 Wimbledon points off (Federer)

I know we're talking about Federer here, but it should be noted what Murray is up against in the next couple of months, too: he's defending the final at Wimbledon, he loses 750 pts from the Olympics, and he's defending the W at USO. A couple of missteps and he could sink rather quickly.

Had forgotten about that actually, mostly the Olympics points dropping off but that's a lot of points alright and will have a huge impact on not only Murray's ranking but most of the rest of the top 6 or so.

 

[Moxie]

RE: Rankings with 2012 Wimbledon points off (Federer)

I know we're talking about Federer here, but it should be noted what Murray is up against in the next couple of months, too: he's defending the final at Wimbledon, he loses 750 pts from the Olympics, and he's defending the W at USO. A couple of missteps and he could sink rather quickly.

But at the same time, Moxie, Murray is only defending 90 points on Canada and Cincinnati. So there's a high chance he could gain some ground over there.

Nadal is really the only player who doesn't have to defend any points after Wimbledon. But, I doubt he will play well on Canada and Cincinnati.

Good point about Murray in Canada and Cincy. But still, he got to be very cautious through this next period.

 

[Ricardo]

i don't know why dude is so fixated with Fed's ranking, like it comes as a surprise. He has not put himself in a position to maximize his ranking points, it's simply not his intention; not for a guy who's done it long enough and has decided to schedule 1/3 less events this year. It almost doesn't matter really, yeah he's been inside top 4 for a whole 10 years, what difference does it really matter if he commits as much as before and makes it into 11th year? like its an important record? i don't think he cares really.

The ranking was a big thing for him in his 20s, he was no 1 for the longest time and people called it weak competition. Then when the youngsters started to peak (Nadal, Djoker, Murray etc) people say he would never get back the top spot, saying he was never really that good, was lucky.... etc. Navratoliva was a big mouth too, and that got him going again. Once he proved her wrong, pretty sure he thought he had done enough. The only relevance would be that he'd be seeded lower in the upcoming events, even then it's normal and expected.

It's just a guy starting his retirement plan.

 

[Moxie]

RE: Rankings with 2012 Wimbledon points off (Federer)

i don't know why dude is so fixated with Fed's ranking, like it comes as a surprise. He has not put himself in a position to maximize his ranking points, it's simply not his intention; not for a guy who's done it long enough and has decided to schedule 1/3 less events this year. It almost doesn't matter really, yeah he's been inside top 4 for a whole 10 years, what difference does it really matter if he commits as much as before and makes it into 11th year? like its an important record? i don't think he cares really.

The ranking was a big thing for him in his 20s, he was no 1 for the longest time and people called it weak competition. Then when the youngsters started to peak (Nadal, Djoker, Murray etc) people say he would never get back the top spot, saying he was never really that good, was lucky.... etc. Navratoliva was a big mouth too, and that got him going again. Once he proved her wrong, pretty sure he thought he had done enough. The only relevance would be that he'd be seeded lower in the upcoming events, even then it's normal and expected.

It's just a guy starting his retirement plan.

That's rather presuming a lot on what Roger thinks. I don't think Dude is fixated so much as many are interested. If Roger's ranking drops, then everything gets more complicated, and not just for him. Look what has happened at Wimbledon just by having Rafa ranked at #5.

 

[Ricardo]

RE: Rankings with 2012 Wimbledon points off (Federer)

i don't know why dude is so fixated with Fed's ranking, like it comes as a surprise. He has not put himself in a position to maximize his ranking points, it's simply not his intention; not for a guy who's done it long enough and has decided to schedule 1/3 less events this year. It almost doesn't matter really, yeah he's been inside top 4 for a whole 10 years, what difference does it really matter if he commits as much as before and makes it into 11th year? like its an important record? i don't think he cares really.

The ranking was a big thing for him in his 20s, he was no 1 for the longest time and people called it weak competition. Then when the youngsters started to peak (Nadal, Djoker, Murray etc) people say he would never get back the top spot, saying he was never really that good, was lucky.... etc. Navratoliva was a big mouth too, and that got him going again. Once he proved her wrong, pretty sure he thought he had done enough. The only relevance would be that he'd be seeded lower in the upcoming events, even then it's normal and expected.

It's just a guy starting his retirement plan.

That's rather presuming a lot on what Roger thinks. I don't think Dude is fixated so much as many are interested. If Roger's ranking drops, then everything gets more complicated, and not just for him. Look what has happened at Wimbledon just by having Rafa ranked at #5.

That's just common sense, when he chooses to cut his schedule significantly there is no doubt that ranking point is not his priority. What else do you think?

 

[Didi]

Ricardo, you are missing the point. Neither El Dude nor anbyody else are claiming the rankings to be a huge goal for Federer in the future. He has nothing left to prove in terms of being #1. He regained the top spot as a 30+ year old when Djokovic and Nadal were in their primes. He answered all questions and done it all. But that's not the point. We all just wonder how many slams he still has left in the tank. For him in order to win another slam it's important he stays inside the top 4. The current freak occurence and back luck for him in Wimbledon with Nadal as #5 put aside as an exception to the rule, do you seriously see him winning a major in the future with having to go through Nadal, Murray and Djokovic in a row within just a couple of days?

Since he isn't retiring anytime soon, it's a legit point to discuss. I don't see Roger being content with just playing the role of Berdych or Tsonga in majors for the future. We all know how incredibly hard it is to have a legit shot at majors when you are seeded outside of the Big 4. Of course theoretically he could get Ferrer in the QFs but let's better not count on that. Personally I don't see Roger retiring before Rio 2016 but if he does, it's due to not having a shot at slams anymore which goes hand in hand with staying inside the very top and thus avoiding to have to go through 3 of the big 4 just to win a slam. It's imperative and crucial with regards to how long he's going to stick around.

 

[Mog]

RE: Rankings with 2012 Wimbledon points off (Federer)

Ricardo, you are missing the point. Neither El Dude nor anbyody else are claiming the rankings to be a huge goal for Federer in the future. He has nothing left to prove in terms of being #1. He regained the top spot as a 30+ year old when Djokovic and Nadal were in their primes. He answered all questions and done it all. But that's not the point. We all just wonder how many slams he still has left in the tank. For him in order to win another slam it's important he stays inside the top 4. The current freak occurence and back luck for him in Wimbledon with Nadal as #5 put aside as an exception to the rule, do you seriously see him winning a major in the future with having to go through Nadal, Murray and Djokovic in a row within just a couple of days?

Since he isn't retiring anytime soon, it's a legit point to discuss. I don't see Roger being content with just playing the role of Berdych or Tsonga in majors for the future. We all know how incredibly hard it is to have a legit shot at majors when you are seeded outside of the Big 4. Of course theoretically he could get Ferrer in the QFs but let's better not count on that. Personally I don't see Roger retiring before Rio 2016 but if he does, it's due to not having a shot at slams anymore which goes hand in hand with staying inside the very top and thus avoiding to have to go through 3 of the big 4 just to win a slam. It's imperative and crucial with regards to how long he's going to stick around.

Excellent post Did . Couldn`t be said better.
I think Roger has at least one Slam in him if not two. And it will not make easy for him to win a slam going through other big three.
There is a possibility that he might be out of four ranking as he has to defend lot more points.

 

[herios]

RE: Rankings with 2012 Wimbledon points off (Federer)

i don't know why dude is so fixated with Fed's ranking, like it comes as a surprise. He has not put himself in a position to maximize his ranking points, it's simply not his intention; not for a guy who's done it long enough and has decided to schedule 1/3 less events this year.

Where do you get your numbers from? Last year by this date he played in 10 events, this year in 8. He skipped only 2: Doha and Miami.
1. Doha mainly because his multi-year contract expired and most likely he was not going to commit for a bulk of another few years, which is understandable at his age.
2. Miami he skipped indeed, but he had an early exit a year ago there, when he lost to Roddick, thus his ranking points didn't take a significant hit.

The fact that he is in this vulnerable situation right now is because he played poorly, reflected by his YTD ranking, which is outside of the top 5.

---

Ricardo, you are missing the point. Neither El Dude nor anbyody else are claiming the rankings to be a huge goal for Federer in the future. He has nothing left to prove in terms of being #1. He regained the top spot as a 30+ year old when Djokovic and Nadal were in their primes. He answered all questions and done it all. But that's not the point. We all just wonder how many slams he still has left in the tank. For him in order to win another slam it's important he stays inside the top 4. The current freak occurence and back luck for him in Wimbledon with Nadal as #5 put aside as an exception to the rule, do you seriously see him winning a major in the future with having to go through Nadal, Murray and Djokovic in a row within just a couple of days?

Since he isn't retiring anytime soon, it's a legit point to discuss. I don't see Roger being content with just playing the role of Berdych or Tsonga in majors for the future. We all know how incredibly hard it is to have a legit shot at majors when you are seeded outside of the Big 4. Of course theoretically he could get Ferrer in the QFs but let's better not count on that. Personally I don't see Roger retiring before Rio 2016 but if he does, it's due to not having a shot at slams anymore which goes hand in hand with staying inside the very top and thus avoiding to have to go through 3 of the big 4 just to win a slam. It's imperative and crucial with regards to how long he's going to stick around.

Excellent post Did I. Couldn't be said better.
I think Roger has at least one Slam in him if not two. And it will not make easy for him to win a slam going through other big three.
There is a possibility that he might be out of four ranking as he has to defend lot more points.

I second it. Well put Didi.

 

[DarthFed]

RE: Rankings with 2012 Wimbledon points off (Federer)

Ricardo, you are missing the point. Neither El Dude nor anbyody else are claiming the rankings to be a huge goal for Federer in the future. He has nothing left to prove in terms of being #1. He regained the top spot as a 30+ year old when Djokovic and Nadal were in their primes. He answered all questions and done it all. But that's not the point. We all just wonder how many slams he still has left in the tank. For him in order to win another slam it's important he stays inside the top 4. The current freak occurence and back luck for him in Wimbledon with Nadal as #5 put aside as an exception to the rule, do you seriously see him winning a major in the future with having to go through Nadal, Murray and Djokovic in a row within just a couple of days?

Since he isn't retiring anytime soon, it's a legit point to discuss. I don't see Roger being content with just playing the role of Berdych or Tsonga in majors for the future. We all know how incredibly hard it is to have a legit shot at majors when you are seeded outside of the Big 4. Of course theoretically he could get Ferrer in the QFs but let's better not count on that. Personally I don't see Roger retiring before Rio 2016 but if he does, it's due to not having a shot at slams anymore which goes hand in hand with staying inside the very top and thus avoiding to have to go through 3 of the big 4 just to win a slam. It's imperative and crucial with regards to how long he's going to stick around.

I doubt he sticks around until 2016. You can concentrate too much on what he says and not think of the reasons he says them. It is similar talk to him saying "he feels as good as ever" "my backhand is better than ever" etc. As the old player trying to fight Father Time he has to say these things. I think he will be around until he believes there is no chance to win another major. As you said he is not going to be content as the #7 or #8 player in the world who has no chance at all of winning a slam. He could stay top 10 until 40 years old, (just look at the players around there right now), but he would consider that embarrassing.

We will see how much game Roger has left in the next few months. I don't see him winning Wimbledon and then he slips to #5 with someone 1/100th as talented as him at #4. If that doesn't tick him off and spark an enormous increase in his level of play then I think he is inching closer to the Tsonga's and Berdych's of the tour (no prayer to win a major).

 

[Ricardo]

RE: Rankings with 2012 Wimbledon points off (Federer)

i don't know why dude is so fixated with Fed's ranking, like it comes as a surprise. He has not put himself in a position to maximize his ranking points, it's simply not his intention; not for a guy who's done it long enough and has decided to schedule 1/3 less events this year.

Where do you get your numbers from? Last year by this date he played in 10 events, this year in 8. He skipped only 2: Doha and Miami.
1. Doha mainly because his multi-year contract expired and most likely he was not going to commit for a bulk of another few years, which is understandable at his age.
2. Miami he skipped indeed, but he had an early exit a year ago there, when he lost to Roddick, thus his ranking points didn't take a significant hit.

The fact that he is in this vulnerable situation right now is because he played poorly, reflected by his YTD ranking, which is outside of the top 5.

---

Ricardo, you are missing the point. Neither El Dude nor anbyody else are claiming the rankings to be a huge goal for Federer in the future. He has nothing left to prove in terms of being #1. He regained the top spot as a 30+ year old when Djokovic and Nadal were in their primes. He answered all questions and done it all. But that's not the point. We all just wonder how many slams he still has left in the tank. For him in order to win another slam it's important he stays inside the top 4. The current freak occurence and back luck for him in Wimbledon with Nadal as #5 put aside as an exception to the rule, do you seriously see him winning a major in the future with having to go through Nadal, Murray and Djokovic in a row within just a couple of days?

Since he isn't retiring anytime soon, it's a legit point to discuss. I don't see Roger being content with just playing the role of Berdych or Tsonga in majors for the future. We all know how incredibly hard it is to have a legit shot at majors when you are seeded outside of the Big 4. Of course theoretically he could get Ferrer in the QFs but let's better not count on that. Personally I don't see Roger retiring before Rio 2016 but if he does, it's due to not having a shot at slams anymore which goes hand in hand with staying inside the very top and thus avoiding to have to go through 3 of the big 4 just to win a slam. It's imperative and crucial with regards to how long he's going to stick around.

Excellent post Did I. Couldn't be said better.
I think Roger has at least one Slam in him if not two. And it will not make easy for him to win a slam going through other big three.
There is a possibility that he might be out of four ranking as he has to defend lot more points.

I second it. Well put Didi.

---

Last year he played 20 and this year he scheduled 14, which is 30% off and it is about 1/3. You think i make up some numbers? remember i am not some obsessed fan of a particular player.

Didi must have missed something, i already said the only relevance would be his seeding position, regarding his ranking. Of course you are all so smart to have pointed that out, should i say 'thanks'?

 

[herios]

RE: Rankings with 2012 Wimbledon points off (Federer)

Last year he played 20 and this year he scheduled 14, which is 30% off and it is about 1/3. You think i make up some numbers? remember i am not some obsessed fan of a particular player.

Ricardo, you keep exagerating. Roger didn't play 20 events in 2012.
He played 19, but 3 of them you should not count for the comparison with 2013 because:
1 was the Olympics, and noone else will play that event this year, and
2 of them were DC rounds and he didn't carry any points towards his ranking from those events.

That leaves him with basically 16 events in 2012, ony 2 more than his schedule.