Rafa's Decline - visual depiction

[Front242]

^ two words:

Biological Passport.

Time to wake the hell up people. You want correlation. There you go. It came into effect late 2013.

Two other words: troll alert.

You'd know you're only a youngster and haven't been following tennis long. Anyone with a grain of tennis history in their DNA knows how players decline physically and mentally when left to their natural human devices.

Without exception...

I'm 41 (you know this as I said this before on this forum) and I know what my eyes see when I watch a guy decline physically that much in that space of time. I'm still putting on muscle at close to 42 years of age. Mr. Nadal has lost almost all his muscle and isn't even 30. It doesn't take a genius. Anyway, there's no convincing the Nadal fans lol. PS: I also mentioned before I've been watching tennis since Borg and McEnroe. Good to be still considered a youngster anyway so cheers for that I know more look almost 42 than the man on the moon. Fellas in the gym that are 26 and on steroids look older than me.

 

[Sundaymorningguy]

Those peaks and valleys though...

 

[Carol]

^ two words:

Biological Passport.

Time to wake the hell up people. You want correlation. There you go. It came into effect late 2013.

Your comments make me think how long Federer has not won anything before and after the meldoniun report and bannig, getting a knee injury in the bathroom given a bath to the kids...scheduled to play in IW, then Miami, then Moncarlo...they say 'third time lucky'?. At least Nadal won RG and USO 2013 and almost AO 2014 (his back didn't help him) but he won RG.
Yep, time to wake the hell up people!

 

[Fiero425]

Those peaks and valleys though...

Almost rivals Agassi, but not sure Rafa's ego would allow him to work himself back into the fray by playing Challenger events! :s :angel: :eyepop

 

[Kieran]

Those peaks and valleys though...

Almost rivals Agassi, but not sure Rafa's ego would allow him to work himself back into the fray by playing Challenger events! :s :angel: :eyepop

Come back and talk to me when he's ranked #141 in the world, not #5...

 

[Front242]

^ two words:

Biological Passport.

Time to wake the hell up people. You want correlation. There you go. It came into effect late 2013.

Your comments make me think how long Federer has not won anything before and after the meldoniun report and bannig, getting a knee injury in the bathroom given a bath to the kids...scheduled to play in IW, then Miami, then Moncarlo...they say 'third time lucky'?. At least Nadal won RG and USO 2013 and almost AO 2014 (his back didn't help him) but he won RG.
Yep, time to wake the hell up people!

Sigh, poor Carol. I've already posted interviews where Federer has asked for samples to be kept for 10 years and rigorously re-tested. The reason for this is simple: he wouldn't risk that route if he wasn't clean himself so he's trying to make the authorities actually test properly to catch some of those who he quite clearly knows are cheating or were cheating.

Nadal was in tatters in RG 2014. Novak was puking and Nadal could barely move in that 4th set and said himself if it went to a 5th he was not winning. Hardly a convincing win and he got pretty lucky with Novak feeling crap that day.

 

[Front242]

And want to know why Federer has not won anything since the meldonium report? 'cos he hasn't played lol. Jesus.

 

[Carol]

^ two words:

Biological Passport.

Time to wake the hell up people. You want correlation. There you go. It came into effect late 2013.

Two other words: troll alert.

You'd know you're only a youngster and haven't been following tennis long. Anyone with a grain of tennis history in their DNA knows how players decline physically and mentally when left to their natural human devices.

Without exception...

I'm 41 (you know this as I said this before on this forum) and I know what my eyes see when I watch a guy decline physically that much in that space of time. I'm still putting on muscle at close to 42 years of age. Mr. Nadal has lost almost all his muscle and isn't even 30. It doesn't take a genius. Anyway, there's no convincing the Nadal fans lol. PS: I also mentioned before I've been watching tennis since Borg and McEnroe. Good to be still considered a youngster anyway so cheers for that I know more look almost 42 than the man on the moon. Fellas in the gym that are 26 and on steroids look older
than me.

You wish to have these arms and legs just for one day. And if you would get a knee injury I'd like to know how many weights you would lift and how much weight you would have to lose

http://www.contactmusic.com/rafael-nadal/pictures/4894884#slider-3

 

[Front242]

Not sure I follow? I wish to have these arms and legs for one day? My arms and legs are much bigger than his. He's 6'1" and 85KG. I'm 5'9" and 84KG. Guess who looks a lot bigger. PS, if it was such a terrible knee injury then how come he came back like the Duracell bunny and won everything in sight? Excuse me while I laugh incessantly. Please.

 

[El Dude]

Front242, while technically you're not supposed to talk about PEDs outside of the dedicated thread, I think considering this thread is about Rafa's decline it is OK as a possible factor. That said, take it easy--you're derailing a thread once more with your crusade.

Anyhow, if you want to question Rafa for his steep decline in early-mid 2014, then you have to question Roger for his steep decline in 2013 (and then partial recovery in 2014). I'm not saying that Roger was juicing--or that Rafa wasn't, for honestly I have no idea and like to say innocent until proven guilty--but that steep declines and ups and downs can be explained in other ways.

 

[Front242]

Roger's level has never really dipped that much, El Dude. Plus it was clearly evident to all that Roger's movement was wooden and rigid as hell in 2013. All the commentators and spectators, fans you name it could see that his movement was hampered that year.

 

[El Dude]

But how is possible that one superb player after to play a very good season, almost winning another AO but unfortunately he got a back injury can go down so fast (one tournament by tournament since then)
and still with very good age (he was 27 that year, how he got old so fast in a couple of months? really?
I'm not going to say one more word about this subject, only the time will say it correctly

What is your answer to this, though, if it isn't age-related decline? And if it is something else--lingering injuries, mechanical issues, etc--why hasn't he corrected it in two years?

On the other hand, if you want a slim ray of hope, look at Roger from 2012-14. 2012 saw Roger have his best year since 2009, including a Slam and #1 ranking for awhile. He then collapsed in 2013 in a similar fashion to Rafa in mid-2014, but was able to re-tool his game and, if not return to 2012 level, then something somewhat close.

Now of course Rafa doesn't seem to be doing (and may not be capable doing) what Roger did, adjust his game for his aging body. But at least it is possible...

 

[Carol]

But how is possible that one superb player after to play a very good season, almost winning another AO but unfortunately he got a back injury can go down so fast (one tournament by tournament since then)
and still with very good age (he was 27 that year, how he got old so fast in a couple of months? really?
I'm not going to say one more word about this subject, only the time will say it correctly

What is your answer to this, though, if it isn't age-related decline? And if it is something else--lingering injuries, mechanical issues, etc--why hasn't he corrected it in two years?

On the other hand, if you want a slim ray of hope, look at Roger from 2012-14. 2012 saw Roger have his best year since 2009, including a Slam and #1 ranking for awhile. He then collapsed in 2013 in a similar fashion to Rafa in mid-2014, but was able to re-tool his game and, if not return to 2012 level, then something somewhat close.

Now of course Rafa doesn't seem to be doing (and may not be capable doing) what Roger did, adjust his game for his aging body. But at least it is possible...

I have the answer for looooong time and I talked about it manyyyy times.
After have suffered a knee injury for long time and after the Doctors advise him or he had to take a good care about it or it would be the end of his career he decided to take a good care for seven months and and coming back in much better conditions, his worst? Wimbledon but out of that he was playing very well until that unfortunate AO 2014 when his back gave him a bad time. If he would have won that final he would have been the second player of the history getting more than one title in every GS which
would have been extraordinary.
That result affected him a lot losing that strong mentality and confidence which always he has had and unfortunately last a lot more than we thought, then he had problem with his wrist and later the appendicitis surgery. he started to lose not just on HC but also on his best surface losing against anyone and often. I'd like to know what player would do better than him under those conditions, none!
By logic players have to go through the age like everybody, I know, but usually they go little by little, I mean they don't have the same resistance anymore and they are not able to win so much like before. But when a player loses the confidence and starts to feel anxiety and playing against himself then it's a different story, it doesn't matter if he is 23 or 29 years old, he can't play his best, his head doesn't work well and then his arms and legs neither, they can lose to anyone because they are not in the game, the
court become too big for them, the opponent too
But nothing is for ever and I hope that bad patch goes with the wind and this clay season helps to find himself

 

[El Dude]

OK, but how is what you describe majorly impacted by age and simply another version of inevitable decline? I know losing confidence is not related to age, but a lot of what you said is. Just as every great player is different in their prime, every great has their own version of decline. What we're seeing right now from Rafa is simply his own version.

Rafa is turning 30 in a couple months. Most players are in decline by then. Actually, among 6+ Slam winners, the only players I can think of that weren't declined from their prime are Andre Agassi and Rod Laver, and maybe Ken Rosewall. Possibly Connors, but it is hard to say as Borg and McEnroe had so clearly surpassed him by that point.

Considering Rosewall and Laver played in a very different era when players where playing longer, I don't think they are as relevant. That leaves only Agassi, who had a career resurgence in 1999, the year he turned 29. But it is also important to point out that his resurgence was at the same time that Sampras was falling and the younger generation wasn't as strong.

So again, if you don't think that a major part of Rafa's decline is age-related, you're basically saying he's unlike almost every great player in tennis history.

Look Carol, I get it. You love Rafa and are upset to see him decline. But it is inevitable. Every great player falls. As the saying goes, what goes up must come down. I think that if you are hoping to see another 2013, you're almost certainly going to be disappointed. The best reasonable scenario I see for Rafa is that he rediscovers some of his old self and surges this coming clay court season, maybe wins a Masters and challenges for Roland Garros. Given what we've seen the last two years, anything more than that is probably asking too much.

 

[Carol]

OK, but how is what you describe majorly impacted by age and simply another version of inevitable decline? I know losing confidence is not related to age, but a lot of what you said is. Just as every great player is different in their prime, every great has their own version of decline. What we're seeing right now from Rafa is simply his own version.

Rafa is turning 30 in a couple months. Most players are in decline by then. Actually, among 6+ Slam winners, the only players I can think of that weren't declined from their prime are Andre Agassi and Rod Laver, and maybe Ken Rosewall. Possibly Connors, but it is hard to say as Borg and McEnroe had so clearly surpassed him by that point.

Considering Rosewall and Laver played in a very different era when players where playing longer, I don't think they are as relevant. That leaves only Agassi, who had a career resurgence in 1999, the year he turned 29. But it is also important to point out that his resurgence was at the same time that Sampras was falling and the younger generation wasn't as strong.

So again, if you don't think that a major part of Rafa's decline is age-related, you're basically saying he's
unlike almost every great player in tennis history.

Look Carol, I get it. You love Rafa and are upset to see him decline. But it is inevitable. Every great player falls. As the saying goes, what goes up must come down. I think that if you are hoping to see another 2013, you're almost certainly going to be disappointed. The best reasonable scenario I see for Rafa is that he rediscovers some of his old self and surges this coming clay court season, maybe wins a Masters and challenges for Roland Garros. Given what we've seen the last two years, anything more than that is probably asking too much.

And I know that you love Novak and this is his big opportunity to maybe win RG but I have bad news for you, Rafa is not the same age as Roger, he can have at least two many good years If he would find himself and I wouldn't surprised if he does on this clay season. And if you still insist that all his bad results is because his age then be ready to see your fav going down soon unles the rest of the tour keep playing so badly like now
If Wawrinka won his first GS at 29 why Rafa can't win more been much better player than him?

 

[El Dude]

LOL, now I'm a Novak fan. OK, then.

As for your last question, first of all, Stan was 28 when he won his first Slam. Second of all, they're completely different players and in different contexts.

Anyhow, as I said, I could see Rafa having an Indian Summer this clay season and winning some titles, even competing at Roland Garros. But that's about it, and that's a best-case scenario. You keep talking about him "finding himself," but if that is going to happen, don't you think it would've already? Its been TWO YEARS of sub-par play.

Time to start reading the writing on the wall, Carol.

 

[Carol]

LOL, now I'm a Novak fan. OK, then.

As for your last question, first of all, Stan was 28 when he won his first Slam. Second of all, they're completely different players and in different contexts.

Anyhow, as I said, I could see Rafa having an Indian Summer this clay season and winning some titles, even competing at Roland Garros. But that's about it, and that's a best-case scenario. You keep talking about him "finding himself," but if that is going to happen, don't you think it would've already? Its been TWO YEARS of sub-par play.

Time to start reading the writing on the wall, Carol.

I'd better say the time will tell us the fact

 

[Kieran]

Front242, while technically you're not supposed to talk about PEDs outside of the dedicated thread, I think considering this thread is about Rafa's decline it is OK as a possible factor. That said, take it easy--you're derailing a thread once more with your crusade.

Anyhow, if you want to question Rafa for his steep decline in early-mid 2014, then you have to question Roger for his steep decline in 2013 (and then partial recovery in 2014). I'm not saying that Roger was juicing--or that Rafa wasn't, for honestly I have no idea and like to say innocent until proven guilty--but that steep declines and ups and downs can be explained in other ways.

Dude, it's not a crusade, it's spamming. And incoherent, biased, illogical spamming too. And you're correct of course, if we question one player (especially one whose physical decline fits the historical pattern for these things), then of course, alarm bells must be rung regarding the octogenarian who's still dancing about the court like Legolas the elf. Like Fiero, I been watching this game a long time. And like Front, I can call a spade a shovel. Very easy, in this case. And Front would be making his "crusade" in that direction if he was a Rafa fan. Or Djoker fan.

Rafa won the FO in 2014, but he'd struggled physically after Oz. He struggled physically in Paris, lucky he didn't go to five against Novak in the final. That was one of his most gutsy and brave performances, to eke the win out there, maybe the very last great match he's played.

Physically, at Wimbledon he looked much better, but Nick was incredible, no complaints. Then his wrist went, then the appendix. And though he played some matches in Autumn 2014, he might as well have skipped them. Since his return, he's been mentally frail and physically diminished.

This is natural. Doesn't require tin foil on your head to figger it. We don't need to love him or hate him to have the IQ to recognise it. FFS has beaten him several times. Others have made hay. Sampras has mentioned that he went through the same, but had the advantage of his peerless serve to dig him out of holes. 2013 is actually a long time ago, in tennis years. It's the difference between late physical peak, and the years of sharp decline. 26-27, and 29-30. Big difference. Especially in players who've been high achievers all their career, including their youth, like Borg, Sampras, Federer, Rafa. They've huge mileage on their clock, mental miles too, and it starts to get to them.

I was just thinking of how incredible it was that Rafa won a slam every season for ten years. That's fairly remarkable consistency. But now it's coming to two years since he won one. That's actually how things look, towards the end. The big question isn't how or why he declined - the answer there is obvious - but whether he can "Sampras" out another big pay day before he leaves...

 

[El Dude]

Great post, Kieran - a really balanced view. Now please take Carol under your wing and coach her in a more realistic view of your man

Seriously though, even though Rafa has been the nemesis of my guy, I've been feeling somewhat nostalgic about the great Spanish bull and would love to see one more charge from him. So yeah, the big question is whether he can "do a Sampras" or not. I'd certainly love to see one last Rafa-Novak final at Roland Garros, and i hope someone cheats with the draw and makes sure they're on opposite sides .

 

[Carol]

Great post, Kieran - a really balanced view. Now please take Carol under your wing and coach her in a more realistic view of your man

Seriously though, even though Rafa has been the nemesis of my guy, I've been feeling somewhat nostalgic about the great Spanish bull and would love to see one more charge from him. So yeah, the big question is whether he can "do a Sampras" or not. I'd certainly love to see one last Rafa-Novak final at Roland Garros, and i hope someone cheats with the draw and makes sure they're on opposite sides .

I don't need any coach, I say what I see, read and hear. Kieran says more or less the same but also adding the age. Agree, it's not the same when that happens at 23 than at 29, it takes more time to recovery the confidence because the body doesn't work the same but it doesn't mean he can't win anymore, he will
And about RG I see the expectation of all of you. But things can be more difficult than you think. There are a couple of young players that if they play well can give more than one upset and maybe one of those names you have said couldn't reach the final, we'll see.
By the way, now I understand why you seem to be a Novak fan, you are Rogers's fan but like many of his fans now you are in the Novak's wagon, isn't? very original.....:snicker