Rafa vs. Novak

[El Dude]

I hope this thread isn't too provocative--well, I'm not being entirely honest, but I do hope it remains (relatively) civil--but as we gear up for Roland Garros, I was wondering who people think is the best player in the game right now? It is obviously between the two

What inspired me to write this is that I was rather surprised to see that since the beginning of 2011, when Novak stepped up a notch in performance, Novak leads the H2H by a rather astonishing 12-6. Novak's also won a rather amazing five of the last seven Master's, and six that he's played in. But Rafa, of course, is still #1 and has won two of the last four Slams, playing in the Final at a third, to Novak's 0-4 in his last four Slams.

So to make the question more specific, who is the better player right now and for the foreseeable future? Who has the edge? Is at as simple as "Rafa on clay, Novak on grass and hards?"

Going back to 2005 by ranking and overall performance, we get:

2005: Rafa
2006: Rafa
2007: Rafa
2008: Rafa
2009: Rafa
2010: Rafa
2011: Novak
2012: Novak
2013: Rafa

So while Rafa has the much stronger career, overall Novak has had a better last three and a half years (also five Slam wins to four).

What say you?

 

[Kieran]

How many slams does Novak currently hold? How many did Rafa hold this time last year? The H2H swings frequently too. It seems when one is up, the other is down. The momentum is with Nole now but it's swung before. If you asked this after the us open, the answer was straight forward. Really, I think they'll be at each other's throats for another couple of seasons, until one of them retires...

 

[El Dude]

I think so too, Kieran. The momentum swings like one of their matches - back and forth, back and forth. Rafa was dominant through 2010 and then Novak took over until Rafa's surge in 2013. Now it seems that Novak is rising again.

For some reason Roland Garros seems huge for both of them. If Rafa can pull it off he maintains his throne, while if Novak wins then he gets the edge. But certainly the gap between these two and everyone else is substantial. Andy seemed like he had joined the crowd after Wimbledon 2013, when he has been in all four finals of the last four Slams he had played in, winning half of them, but then he dwindled and was injured. Maybe he can come back into the fold.

 

[DarthFed]

Novak still has to show he doesn't have a "slam" problem. Nole has performed plenty well at the other events the past 2+ seasons but he hasn't shown up well at the ones that count, with some flat out dismal losses to boot.

A win in RG would obviously be huge for his resume but it also might have a lingering effect both on Nole and Rafa that will pay dividends for the former. A loss and then the problems for Nole continue and he gets seen as someone not performing well under pressure.

 

[Garro]

Really looking forward to this match up happening in RG. The circumstances are so similar to 2011: in both years Djokovic, after losing the US Open final to Nadal the year prior, has 4 consecutive wins against him going into the French Open. Although Djokovic lost a little early that year, I can't see anyone stopping them this time. I still give Nadal the slight edge, because Djokovic's performance at the slams has been rather poor lately, since Wimbledon last year.

 

[Moxie]

The 12-6 H2H since 2011 may astonish you, but the astonishment was kind of gotten over after the run of 7 in a row was stopped. Since then (April 2012,) Rafa has 6-5 advantage. So, you can slice that up any way you want, but based on all but one streak, when he was streaking against everyone, fortunes are due to swing back from Nole to Rafa, and RG is just the place for Nadal to make it happen, should they meet.

 

[Kieran]

I like the cut of your jib, missus! :clap

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I like the cut of your jib, missus! :clap

I like your lawn mower impersonations Kieran.....

 

[DarthFed]

The swing in the matchup isn't due to happen anymore than Djokovic performing decent at a slam is due to happen. We will just see how it goes, wouldn't shock me if that's not the final...

 

[Kieran]

I like the cut of your jib, missus! :clap

I like your lawn mower impersonations Kieran.....

I'm not sure what that means but my wife wishes I'd mow the lawn and sometimes I wish I could get away with impersonating it! :snigger

 

[El Dude]

The 12-6 H2H since 2011 may astonish you, but the astonishment was kind of gotten over after the run of 7 in a row was stopped. Since then (April 2012,) Rafa has 6-5 advantage. So, you can slice that up any way you want, but based on all but one streak, when he was streaking against everyone, fortunes are due to swing back from Nole to Rafa, and RG is just the place for Nadal to make it happen, should they meet.

The reason I sliced it at 2011 is because that's when Novak came into his own, while Rafa has pretty much been at peak level (with some fluctuations) since 2008. So 2011 to present is the time frame in which both players were playing at or near peak level. 2010 might have been Rafa's best year, but it was one of Novak's worst and doesn't represent his peak level.

That said, I hear you. I'm approaching this from a different perspective, though, which is without a horse in the race.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

In my opinion, between these two, it comes down to the execution on the day of...There are no secrets, no clear edges. Can Nole hit the DTL backhands, can Rafa hit the inside out forehands...There are so many peaks and valleys when they play that we are sure to see at least 4-5 momentum changes. Sure, some days one will just run away with it but that's not likely to happen a lot. They know each other so well.

 

[brokenshoelace]

On average, Novak is the better player now and for the foreseeable future.

 

[Ricardo]

Dude always wants to be so blunt when it comes to these things. They are players of similar level, one is not strictly better than the other. Fans always are fixated into arguing who the better player is when both play the best. I think it really stems from immature childish comparisons, as the average quality of a player (performance over long term) decides how good he is.

But if anyone wants to be really blunt, and conveniently thinks that Djoker at his peak is better than peak Rafa...... it may appear so, but if we are talking once in a blue moon peak Rafa with his 2010 USO serves, then his level is higher.

 

[nehmeth]

So to make the question more specific, who is the better player right now and for the foreseeable future? Who has the edge? Is at as simple as "Rafa on clay, Novak on grass and hards?"

While I respect a lot of the study you do of the game E.D., every so often you come up with a thread that's just meant to be provocative. That's my opinion. Since no Djokovic fan has taken the bait, I will respond.

In your statement above, how can you even suggest giving Novak the edge on grass? Because he once beat Ralf in the final? Rafa has two Wimbledon trophies to Novak's one and Rafa made it to the finals against Roger in 06 and 07. Sure he lost early the past two years, but his grass court results still place him above Novak.

Career wise? Ralf has 13 slams to Novak's 6. Masters Shields? He's ahead there too. So overall Rafa is the better player thus far.

At this present point in time? Novak has found a way to handle him in their last few meetings. But if they meet in the final of Roland Garros, it will be best of five sets on clay against a guy who is arguably the best of all time on the surface. Tough ask of anyone and until Novak actually pulls it off - Rafa should be the favorite to win.

In the future? I'd like to see Novak win in every slam final they meet, but that doesn't mean it will happen. Rafa is the best thus far and only four slams away from tying Federer. If he wins them, Rafa moves to the head of the all time great list.

 

[TsarMatt]

I know there is this underlying consensus that Djokovic has 'figured' Nadal out, and while that's true to some extent, Nadal did beat him twice last year at actual Grand Slams, including one final. Djokovic, in 2013, did no such thing. I mean, I agree that Nole has this edge over him now, but he needs to start proving it at those best-of-5 set tournaments for me to be fully convinced. He had two opportunities last year and couldn't capitalise on either of them.

That's just me though.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I am going against the general thinking and guessing that neither will make the finals.

 

[Kieran]

I know there is this underlying consensus that Djokovic has 'figured' Nadal out, and while that's true to some extent, Nadal did beat him twice last year at actual Grand Slams, including one final. Djokovic, in 2013, did no such thing. I mean, I agree that Nole has this edge over him now, but he needs to start proving it at those best-of-5 set tournaments for me to be fully convinced. He had two opportunities last year and couldn't capitalise on either of them.

That's just me though.

Well, sometimes what a player needs to get over the hump is the kind of run Nole is having now. I'm not convinced his defeats last year at majors will necessarily affect him if he faces Rafa. Maybe the FO match will because he's never won there and Rafa has dominated it so well - and dominated him there too.

But I'm not convinced. Tournaments can each have their own dynamic too. A feller can go in feeling like this is his lucky day, and I expect Nole to be more confident than tentative this year...

 

[brokenshoelace]

I am going against the general thinking and guessing that neither will make the finals.

2 months of propaganda come down to this. Let's hope you're right after calling me out on my Nadal-Wawrinka prediction (in a match that never happened) because after shoving the "unnamed player" down our throats in virtually every other post, and now this, I'm going to have a field day...

 

[Kieran]

I sometimes think with this rivalry that Rafa is more than just one year older than Nole. Rafa has played 837 matches and Nole 702, which isn't a huge difference, but probably makes Rafa a bit more than a year older, in tennis years. Interestingly, they've both lost 135 matches in their careers.

Probably more interesting is that both of them have played more than 10% of their career against other members of the Big 4.

Nole has played 95 matches against rest of them - out of 702. That's probably about 13% of his whole career - playing just 3 players.

Rafa has played 91 matches, about 11%.

But going back to Rafa feeling older, he was number 2 the season Safin won Oz. That feels like a whole generation before Novak. It feels to me that Rafa is certainly in the endgame of his career - though maybe the beginning of this, whereas Nole is at a more youthful stage. I could be wrong, and I'm not a pessimistic sort, and I certainly don't think this means Nole will take control, because I fancy Rafa to be the dominant force this year again, but I look at Nole - and even more so Andy - and think of these as players as being from a more recent vintage than Rafa...