Race for #1

[lacatch]

Looks like we're going to have a photo finish for #1. IF Andy wins in Paris and Novak fails to make the final, Andy will take over the #1 spot. It will be a test to see if Novak can overcome his mental/physical yips which have been plaguing him since Paris, vs. Andy holding it together mentally against his greatest nemesis. High drama indeed

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

The tremendous drive that got Nole where he is does not seem to be that strong anymore. Andy on the other hand has a new goal within his grasp. He might as well go get it.

 

[the AntiPusher]

The tremendous drive that got Nole where he is does not seem to be that strong anymore. Andy on the other hand has a new goal within his grasp. He might as well go get it.

Novak seems to be only motivated to pay attention to his bolly "wood" these days :nono

 

[El Dude]

Looks like we're going to have a photo finish for #1. IF Andy wins in Paris and Novak fails to make the final, Andy will take over the #1 spot. It will be a test to see if Novak can overcome his mental/physical yips which have been plaguing him since Paris, vs. Andy holding it together mentally against his greatest nemesis. High drama indeed

This isn't quite correct. Even if Andy won Paris and Novak went out in the first round, Novak would still be #1 until the WTF points came off a week later. Andy would be ahead in the Race rankings, though.

By the way, is there any specific reason you didn't just add this to the Race to London thread? Do you want to differentiate between that and #1?

 

[Kieran]

Murray won't catch Novak - it's asking a lot for him to go through the rest of the season more or less unbeaten. But even if he does, Novak is the best player this year, and deserves to be #1 at the season end...

 

[delPoFearhand]

Per the ATP site:

The Emirates ATP Rankings period is the immediate past 52 weeks, except for:
•The Barclays ATP World Tour Finals, which is dropped on the Monday following the last regular-season ATP event of the following year;
•Futures Series Tournaments that are only entered into the System on the second Monday following the Tournament's week. Once entered, all Tournaments, except for the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals, remain in the System for 52 consecutive weeks.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/rankings/rankings-faq

I.e. the 2015 WTF final points will be dropped on the Monday following Paris, Monday, 7 November. So lacatch's post is correct. There is also a scenario where Andy could get the #1 ranking by only making the final, if Novak loses in the QF or earlier.

However, the Davis Cup points are still in there for Murray, dropping on 28 November. So in order to get YE #1, at the WTF he will have to outperform Djokovic by 275 +/- his point lag/lead with respect to Djokovic following Paris to get YE #1.

 

[lacatch]

Looks like we're going to have a photo finish for #1. IF Andy wins in Paris and Novak fails to make the final, Andy will take over the #1 spot. It will be a test to see if Novak can overcome his mental/physical yips which have been plaguing him since Paris, vs. Andy holding it together mentally against his greatest nemesis. High drama indeed

This isn't quite correct. Even if Andy won Paris and Novak went out in the first round, Novak would still be #1 until the WTF points came off a week later. Andy would be ahead in the Race rankings, though.

By the way, is there any specific reason you didn't just add this to the Race to London thread? Do you want to differentiate between that and #1?

I won't fall on my sword over this lol, but I felt that the Race to London is more about who will make the final 8, vs. a focus on the race between Novak and Andy for year-end #1. Does that make sense?

 

[El Dude]

Ok, fair enough! One aspect of this that I find interesting is that there is a scenario in which Andy gets one week at #1 then falls back and never gets there again. I don't think it will happen; in fact, considering how many points Novak has to defend in the first half of the year, I think Andy's chances of at least a dozen or more weeks at the top are good. But it would be interesting if he only got that one week after Paris.

 

[rafanoy1992]

If Murray is gonna be number 1 player in the world, it will be at the beginning of 2017. I just think Lendl will tell Murray to look at the bigger picture which is to win World Tour Finals and/or Australian Open 2017. If Murray wins either one of those tournaments, he will be number 1 player in the world.

 

[El Dude]

Well again, if he wins Paris and Novak doesn't make the final, than he's #1 for at least a week.

Current ATP Race to London points:
Novak: 10610
Andy: 10195 (-415)

Andy wins Paris, Novak goes out in the SF:
Novak: 10970
Andy: 11195 (+225)

If Andy defeats Novak in the final he'll be just 15 points behind, but not #1...that would suck for Andy, but it seems that he's so close that he'll get there at some point in the next few months.

 

[herios]

By the way, is there any specific reason you didn't just add this to the Race to London thread? Do you want to differentiate between that and #1?

I won't fall on my sword over this lol, but I felt that the Race to London is more about who will make the final 8, vs. a focus on the race between Novak and Andy for year-end #1. Does that make sense?
[/quote]

I agree with you. I could not get it why the race to London thread it got twisted and all the chat was about Andy chasing down Novak and less about who will make the top 8:huh:

 

[mrzz]

Wikileaks published an interesting document a while ago, that I suppose anyone payed attention to. I guess it was the former president talking to some advisor, who remind him that in the ATP document: "Unchangeable requirements for a trustworthy GOAT candidate" there is a clause that reads:

"Never be overtaken by Andy Murray in the race for the #1 spot"

 

[El Dude]

Haha, so cruel.

 

[Fiero425]

Well again, if he wins Paris and Novak doesn't make the final, than he's #1 for at least a week.

Current ATP Race to London points:
Novak: 10610
Andy: 10195 (-415)

Andy wins Paris, Novak goes out in the SF:
Novak: 10970
Andy: 11195 (+225)

If Andy defeats Novak in the final he'll be just 15 points behind, but not #1...that would suck for Andy, but it seems that he's so close that he'll get there at some point in the next few months.

As long as Nole can hold it for YE, I'll be ok! That makes a difference in the grand scheme of records; not to mention all those dead weeks holding the ranking while no ones' playing over the break! The next time it can come to a head concerning a change at the top is at AO next Feb.! :angel: :dodgy: :clap

 

[El Dude]

Novak's at 222 weeks or so. If he makes it to the AO he's almost to 235. At this point I don't think he'll make Roger's record, but do think he'll be in the Lendl-Connors-Sampras zone.

 

[Fiero425]

Novak's at 222 weeks or so. If he makes it to the AO he's almost to 235. At this point I don't think he'll make Roger's record, but do think he'll be in the Lendl-Connors-Sampras zone.

Most assuredly! Murray might sneak it for a week or so next year, but Nole will end the season #1 again! :angel:

 

[El Dude]

Maybe, Fiero, maybe. What remains to be seen is whether--or to what degree--Novak can right the ship and re-find his edge. If he continues playing as is, he'll probably lose the #1 ranking for long periods of time. In fact, it could be a dog-fight all year with Andy.

I don't foresee anyone else in the running for #1 next year, but you never know. Surprises can and do happen, but it just doesn't seem anyone else combines the two necessary components of being #1: a high peak level and strong consistency. Stan has the former but not the latter. Milos, Kei, Thiem...these guys just aren't good enough, at least while Andy and Novak are still around.

2018? All bets are off.

 

[El Dude]

EDIT: Novak lost, Andy won:

10780 Novak
10545 Andy

If Andy wins tomorrow he's at 10785, or 5 points ahead of Novak, assuring him the #1 ranking for at least a week.

 

[isabelle]

C'mon Andy, be N°1 with the little help of both Nole and Ivan !!

 

[Kieran]

EDIT: Novak lost, Andy won:

10780 Novak
10545 Andy

If Andy wins tomorrow he's at 10785, or 5 points ahead of Novak, assuring him the #1 ranking for at least a week.

It's gonna get messy, isn't it? Our resident statisticians might go into hiding rather than puzzle out the permutations of what might happen in London. Makes it interesting though!