Pace of Greatness

[El Dude]

Alex de Minaur (b. 2/17/99):
Top 100: 6/11/2018, so 19 yrs and 4 months. Missed it by a few months.
Top 50: 8/6/18, 19 yrs and 6 months. Made it.

He's got until next February to reach the age 20 benchmarks.

 

[Moxie]

so hard to figure out what the pace to greatness is these days. The paradigm seems to have shifted and the Big 3 will continue to distort trajectories for the next few years. I suspect when those 3 finally start to diminish there'll be an explosion of slam acquisitions from the next greats. The fact that they don't necessarily match up with previous eras shouldn't be held against them. There simply hasn't been an era with so many incredibly strong players in their 30s. 30s are the new 20s it seems

I think this is a good point and worth making...that the Big 3 have distorted the stats. That said, it's useful to have at least a marker for keeping track. I also think you're right that, when the Big 3 stop winning the Majors, there will be a huge scrum for them. It will start little by little, as Fedalovic won't fall off at once. And then it will come fast. The question is if it will be 1 or 2 or 3, or, or just a whole bunch of them.