coban said:
Over time as it becomes less likely - this feat could increase in value. Kind of like the original Grand Slam.
I think this is an interesting point. As Didi says, the MS was not codified before a certain point, but in the 2000s, at least, they are high-water marks, just below Slams (and the YEC, in terms of points.) Plus, all the top players are there. And sorry, Kieran, I don't agree that they're *just* "tune-ups." It can feel like that, for top players, who are all playing for the real stakes, but they are still, in-and-of-themselves, big and prestigious tourneys, and tough to win, esp. over the variety of surface. (And there is more variety than in the 4 Slams.)
DarthFed said:
johnsteinbeck said:
^Novak being one of them. and looking at the past two RG's, if not for Rafa, who would've taken it but Novak? Novak is currently head and shoulders above the rest when it comes to big time play on clay. and about the window quickly closing? come on, he's 26 now. he has a few more very solid shots, and isn't showing as much mileage-related distress as Rafa is. he seems pretty solid, physically.
anyway, if we're being serious: no, of course RG won't be a sure-fire thing for him. things could get in the way. and so far, targetting specific titles (if 2012 is any indication) hasn't seemed to become Novak as much as just generally playing great and going on runs does. me thinking that he will nonetheless definitely make it happen is just a guess - i always thought that his game perfectly suited clay, that he should've had even more success there even earlier, and that RG being the missing piece in his slam collection is somewhat similar in oddity to Agassi winning his first slam on 90ies grass. so that's why i'm optimistic. but of course, Rafa is the big obstacle and even beyond him, other things can happen. but that's just as true for Cincy. sure, the Fed issue isn't really there anymore, but by all means, Andy should do great there. so i'd rank the possibility of Novak winning Cincy just a tad above him winning RG, and think both are rather high.
He is 26 now and 2 years from now he will be 28 and it is extremely likely he will have slowed down a bit by then. He has been near the top of the game for 6 years already (compared to Rafa's 8 and Federer's 10) so the mileage is building up. I agree that he has another 2 very good chances left and after that it will likely only become tougher even if Rafa won't be as big of an obstacle at that point. But 2 good chances followed by maybe 2 more half decent chances (at age 29 and 30) are not a lot right?
I do think it's fair to point out the age factor, with Djokovic's physical game. He'll be 27 at RG next year. Roger won it at 27, I think, with Rafa out. Obviously, the Rafa being in/out factor would be huge, but there's also the question of clay players finally coming up, like Del Bonis, for example, and causing trouble BEFORE the final. Djokovic pretty much mowed through the field this year, but had trouble before reaching the final in 2011. It should be remembered that Rafa might not be the only obstacle.
Front242 said:
El Dude said:
I wouldn't be surprised to see Novak dismantle Rafa's clay dominance next year. Roland Garros is a long way off, but as of right now I'd tentatively favor Novak.Remember that Novak challenged Rafa at Roland Garros like he's never been challenged (at least outside of 2009) - that match could have gone either way. The point being, while Rafa has the 8 titles I don't know if I'd give him the edge there against Novak anymore. Psychologically, yes, but in terms of ability I think Novak's right there with him.
It's miles away yet as you say but most important factor imo is the weather. Start of the match at this year's final the conditions were very windy. Now I know it's the same on paper as they both have to deal with the same conditions, but the fact of the matter is Novak doesn't handle these conditions well. Both of them were afraid of overhitting so we saw a lot of pusher rallies. As soon as the wind died down though Nadal's topspin was on fire. The weather was especially crap there this year though and hopefully next year will be better. I'd say it's around 50/50 there with no outright advantage to either, just as you'd expect from 9-7 in the 5th really.
When it comes down to Rafa and Nole on clay, at this point, the weather is a factor, that's very true. Rafa handles wind better, and the dry, sunny conditions favor him. If it's damp and heavy, advantage Novak, like MC this year, or in the drizzly 4th set in the final of 2012. I agree they are that close there. So to Johnsteinbeck's notion that Novak is close, I think he's close to Rafa, but more susceptible to the field, and to Darth's point, age will become increasingly a factor, as Djokovic might be getting to the edge of missing his window. If both Rafa and Novak are in good shape next year, we could still expect them in the final (or SF again,) and it could come down to the weather, and "any given day." After that, there's a real possibility that other serious clay spoilers begin to emerge who could also spoil Nole's career Slam, even if Rafa isn't the biggest impediment. If not, though, Rafa can't hold down the fort forever. And there's always the possibility, that like Andre, it comes later for Novak.
) because just like Roger did before '09, Novak has shown that he's the best clay player not named Rafael Nadal.
