Novak Djokovic: Predict His Total Slam Haul

[britbox]

Depends when they meet. If Stan's in a final... he's a beast.

 

[isabelle]

Depends when they meet. If Stan's in a final... he's a beast.

for the moment, Querrey and Istomin are able to make him derail before final

 

[Denis]

for the moment, Querrey and Istomin are able to make him derail before final

What are you talking about. Wawrinka has a winning record against both (4-1 and 3-1).

 

[Denis]

I'll have to see it to believe it. The days of Stan having an inferiority complex against the big 3 are over imho

I would agree re Novak and perhaps Fed at RG, but I'll have to see Wawrinka beating Nadal at RG to believe it

 

[Moxie]

Navratilova had some interesting things to say about Djokovic's loss, so I may as well post them here. Again, she did mention she thinks he's too light, but more cogently, she said she thought he should take next week off and do nothing. She said when she was #1, she got burnt out from the constant pressure and didn't even realize she was burnt out. BJK told her to take a week off and do only what she wanted to do, which she did, and said it helped. (She said she got a tan on her tummy for the first time in her life. LOL.) She suggested he needs to find the child-like joy in the game again and not take it so seriously. Coming from one whose been there, I thought it might be good advice. I believe everyone agrees that his drop in form seems far more mental than physical.

 

[Denis]

Navratilova had some interesting things to say about Djokovic's loss, so I may as well post them here. Again, she did mention she thinks he's too light, but more cogently, she said she thought he should take next week off and do nothing. She said when she was #1, she got burnt out from the constant pressure and didn't even realize she was burnt out. BJK told her to take a week off and do only what she wanted to do, which she did, and said it helped. (She said she got a tan on her tummy for the first time in her life. LOL.) She suggested he needs to find the child-like joy in the game again and not take it so seriously. Coming from one whose been there, I thought it might be good advice. I believe everyone agrees that his drop in form seems far more mental than physical.

Problem is, that's what he already did last year. He went back to Serbia to find his old tennis court etc.

 

[Moxie]

Problem is, that's what he already did last year. He went back to Serbia to find his old tennis court etc.

I don't know what to say...wouldn't you agree the problem seems about 80% mental? He made the big press to finally win RG, and then he pretty much went into a nose dive on motivation. What do you think he should do? Or what the issue is? Or if I'm wrong, and it's just a run of matches lost.

 

[Denis]

I don't know what to say...wouldn't you agree the problem seems about 80% mental? He made the big press to finally win RG, and then he pretty much went into a nose dive on motivation. What do you think he should do? Or what the issue is? Or if I'm wrong, and it's just a run of matches lost.

Analysis. He has funds. He needs to look at what changed in his game over the past months compared to before. I have already read that his forehand lacks the usual power. Well that's quite a big thing.

Once he knows, he needs to start working on those things.

 

[DarthFed]

I think he's lost a half step too. That's something that takes awhile for people to notice especially after being so dominant for many years. Also, it's not like he's slow, he's still moving great but it certainly wasn't otherworldly against Istomin. Istomin can hit the ball clean but he isn't exactly Delpo when it comes to power yet he was getting Nole out of position more than I've seen and the winners piled up at an alarming rate

I remember last year saying that there isn't much reason to think Nole's career arc won't follow Fed and Rafa and their games fell off in a huge way by the time they turned 29. .

 

[Carol]

I would agree re Novak and perhaps Fed at RG, but I'll have to see Wawrinka beating Nadal at RG to believe it

Novak and Roger have not beaten Nadal in a RG final, Novak did it in the QF 2015 and when Rafa had lost against anyone on clay, his worst year of his career

 

[Carol]

Rafa said: " when you start to lose it's very dificult (not impossible) to find your best game again"

 

[Denis]

I think he's lost a half step too. That's something that takes awhile for people to notice especially after being so dominant for many years. Also, it's not like he's slow, he's still moving great but it certainly wasn't otherworldly against Istomin. Istomin can hit the ball clean but he isn't exactly Delpo when it comes to power yet he was getting Nole out of position more than I've seen and the winners piled up at an alarming rate

I remember last year saying that there isn't much reason to think Nole's career arc won't follow Fed and Rafa and their games fell off in a huge way by the time they turned 29. .

Yes, but that was because of Djokovic. Federer and Nadal made plenty of slam finals afterwards. I don't think we will see as prenounced a cliff as those two. I think Djokovic will rack up a couple more. But he needs to get his act together. Fed really did great in that sense with Edberg and all. Even made it back to number 1 for a while.

 

[DarthFed]

Since Rafa turned 29 in 2015 he has made 1 QF of a major, and clearly his struggles began even before that. Since Roger turned 29 he has made 5 GS finals and only won 1, not terrible but we are talking over the course of the last 6 years. The 6 years before that he won 15 slams so I'd say that is a huge fall off and it goes way beyond Djokovic otherwise he would have been making almost every final like he used to.

 

[Denis]

Since Rafa turned 29 in 2015 he has made 1 QF of a major, and clearly his struggles began even before that. Since Roger turned 29 he has made 5 GS finals and only won 1, not terrible but we are talking over the course of the last 6 years. The 6 years before that he won 15 slams so I'd say that is a huge fall off and it goes way beyond Djokovic otherwise he would have been making almost every final like he used to.

Fair point, but Federer lost most those 5 to players like Djokovic Nadal. Djokovic doesn't have that type of a quality player below him right now. Now he might drop like Nadal, or he could be like Fed or better. In the latter case, there is plenty to be hopeful about that he gets at least to 14, and perhaps more.

 

[shawnbm]

I think Novak ends up right around Pete and Rafael at 14 now that he is out at this year's AO. He may win nine or maybe one major this year. The big surprise is Andy losing so early--that was as shocking as Nole losing early.

 

[Moxie]

I think Novak ends up right around Pete and Rafael at 14 now that he is out at this year's AO. He may win nine or maybe one major this year. The big surprise is Andy losing so early--that was as shocking as Nole losing early.

I'll stay cautiously optimistic that Rafael doesn't end at 14, but I agree that Andy losing to Misha Zverev was akin to the shock of Djokovic losing to Istomin. I think they said that this is the first time the #1 and #2 are out this early in a Major in the Open Era, on the men's side. Should fact-check that.

 

[Mary]

Analysis. He has funds. He needs to look at what changed in his game over the past months compared to before. I have already read that his forehand lacks the usual power. Well that's quite a big thing.

Once he knows, he needs to start working on those things.

I have been pretty sure for over a year that he has a chronic shoulder problem. Such injuries can improve for a time and then get worse and are notoriously slow to heal. Surgery is often an option but the recovery period is months and may never give the patient the power they had before. I have personal experience of this. This morning I read that Nole said he had shoulder pain and couldn't play as he wished to in yesterday's DC. It totally adds up - the deterioration in serve, loss of forehand power, loss of accuracy. Of course there are other factors but I have noticed this since autumn 2015.

 

[Ricardo]

I think Novak ends up right around Pete and Rafael at 14 now that he is out at this year's AO. He may win nine or maybe one major this year. The big surprise is Andy losing so early--that was as shocking as Nole losing early.

not that shocking, Murray isn't born with that natural champion mentality like the other 3. He is basically a puss, and he is a confessed feminist. Funny that tough woman Amelie didn't get him anywhere, and he needed a tough guy to straighten him out. But there is only so much you can do to lift a puss, as occasionally his real self would just come out (Misha really took the offence to him). I'd like to see what Murray would be like if Lendl leaves him (again).

 

[mrzz]

I cannot believe that I will defend Murray, but here we go. I am not so sure about the champion´s mentality. He is a very fine player who had the "luck" to be active in the same time span as those three anomalies. Those guys are simply better than him and he knows it. As much as don´t like the guy, he has to really have his head in the right place to be able to deal with that. And he found not only a way, but some space on that room too. He is that guy that took the #1 spot from Djokovic, after all, and he has something the big 3 do not have, which is two Olympic golds.

I am saying this because I believe that Zverev took him by surprise and Murray simply had no tools to deal with him on the match of his life. This is, for me, the mark of the great champions: they are able, week in week out, to beat guys having the match of their lives. That is why I never gave too much stock to the weak era argument: there is always someone playing like a demon out there. Now that Murray is the #1, he is supposed to consistently stop these guys, because we are used to see Federer, Nadal and Djokovic doing this. But can he?

OK, let me rephrase it: he might not have the same champion´s mentality as the other 3, but that is more an effect than a cause.

 

[DarthFed]

As for the original question I'd say 15 is looking generous right now. We will know more by the end of the year but he is about to turn 30 and his game has fallen off in a huge way the last 7 months. As great as he is at AO he also doesn't have a stranglehold on it like Rafa at RG who is inherently going to be at least a top 2 favorite anytime he plays the event. Rafa with his forehand on clay can win it even if the rest of his game is off, the same can't be said for any other player on any other surface.