Novak Djokovic: Predict His Total Slam Haul

ClayDeath

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He is on an absolute rampage right now. he just said that he is interested in improving and progressing.

only way to beat him is to outwork him.  he is focused like a guided missile. he is driven, hungry, and just relentless.

and there is really only one man who can stop him. his name? Rafa. it will have to be on clay

Lets get a bit of a sense of where he is going to be in terms of history.

I believe he is taking 6 of next 8 slams or 7 of next 8.

I see him sitting on 17 slams at the end of 2017.

 

they are calling him the most dominant athlete on the planet in any sport. right now it will be hard to contest that premise.

djokovic himself says that he likes his chances against anyone on any surface right now.

 
 

ClayDeath

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“Ever since very early childhood days, I have been surrounded with people who were very professional, very knowledgeable about the sport and lifestyle that is required for an athlete to reach the peak of his sport,” Djokovic said. “I think I have inherited that, first of all, from my parents, who were involved in different sports in their lives. Several coaches, people, mentors that have shaped me into the person and player I am today. I was fortunate to gather advice on how I should think about everything. Not just practice itself but recovery, nutrition and the psychological part, as well.”

Despite his record-breaking season, Djokovic insists that staying on cruise control is not an option.

“I try to take nothing for granted,” Djokovic said. “I try to work on my game all the time, because I know that the only way I can stay successful is to continue progressing. I'm not trying to keep the status quo, because for me, that's a regression.

“I just try to improve all the time, work on certain things in my life and my game, and hopefully get better in the process.”
 

EdbergsGhost

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“Nobody can be perfect, but if you are going for perfection, you might reach excellence. That's the kind of mindset I have.”  - Novak Djokovic

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/status-quo-not-an-option-for-djokovic-2015-paris
 

ClayDeath

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step right up and give us the total:

I think he will end up with 17 slams.
 

EdbergsGhost

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11380 said:
step right up and give us the total: I think he will end up with 17 slams.

I think he can finish somewhere between 15 and 18, based on how many he can win the next two years and how long he can stay viable past 30.
 

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I also think that the  next 2 years will be crucial.    I don't think he will repeat this season as far as Masters 1000s are concerned, but for me at this point it is all about slams.   Honestly I will be happy with whatever he can win.   If he can win the next two with a bit of luck, that would be phenomenal.   I also hope that he stays healthy and then even if he slows down a little bit, he can try his best at majors.   At some point he won't be able to play the whole season at such a high level but as long as he does play, I'll fancy his chances at winning some of these.  15 sounds great, anything more than that would be insane, really.

 
 

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11382 said:
I also think that the next 2 years will be crucial. I don’t think he will repeat this season as far as Masters 1000s are concerned, but for me at this point it is all about slams. Honestly I will be happy with whatever he can win. If he can win the next two with a bit of luck, that would be phenomenal. I also hope that he stays healthy and then even if he slows down a little bit, he can try his best at majors. At some point he won’t be able to play the whole season at such a high level but as long as he does play, I’ll fancy his chances at winning some of these. 15 sounds great, anything more than that would be insane, really.
I agree that the next 2 years will determine how far he can take it.  If there is really no competition, 15 is not out of the realm of possibility.  There are 6 Majors to be played before he turns 30.  Statistically, he is unlikely to win all of them.  Even 4 would be a stretch.  Then after 30, 2 might be maximum.  I'd say 14-16 is the top chance.
 

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I still think 14, maybe 15.  I was surprised he recovered so well after RG and won the next 2 because I thought even 14 would be a big stretch.  It is mostly about next year.  If he wins 3 again then he suddenly has a chance at beyond 15.  But I think his play is going to go down next year, he already has a lot of wear and tear and 29 is up there for top tennis players.  Since he is bound to be compared with the other legends such as Roger and Rafa it should be noted that both took an enormous step back the year they turned 29.  Rafa turned 29 this year and Roger turned 29 in 2010 when he had a very bad stretch after winning AO that year.  There is a difference with Nole though, he has not had the injuries that Rafa has had and Roger had 16 slams after AO 2010 so I would imagine Nole at 28/29 has more motivation than Roger did especially since he hasn't won RG.

A big factor is that nobody is currently close to him so even a drop in his level could see him win 2-3 majors next year.  And though the youngsters seem worthless as of now, I think the rise of the next big player will be pretty quick similar to what we saw with Rafa and Nole.  The question is will that be next year, 2 years or even 5 years from now?
 

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nobody is even remotely close to him now. he even left the all time greats in the dust.

Federer is the only one who has the game to deal with him and that is only occasionally in a best of 3 sets format on a relatively quick hard court.

I dont think Andy can keep up with Djokovic. modern sport requires a dominating forehand. he is going to have to get stronger physically. and  he has to develop a dominating serve to stay close. that can compensate him to some extent for that forehand weakness.

Rafa has a shot at Djokovic on clay but he has an immense amount of work to put in before he can have that shot.
 

ClayDeath

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article from the ATP site:

 

Murray is the second best baseliner in the world in today’s game, but the gap between Djokovic and the rest of the field only seems to be getting wider. In the opening set, Djokovic completely controlled the back of the court, winning 69 per cent (27/39) of baseline points. Overall, the Serb won 67 per cent (47/70) of baseline points for the match, which is a massive advantage that allows the rest of his game to flow freely.

Djokovic’s real advantage came in mid-length rallies of five to nine shots where he stole the show, winning 68 per cent (28/41) of points, as both players tried to force their baseline patterns on the opponent. Murray actually won the longer rallies over nine shots (10-8), but with so few rallies getting this far, it simply wasn’t enough to make an impact on the final outcome.

The real key to Djokovic’s dominance was the backhand-to-backhand arm wrestle in the ad court. Murray made 25 backhand errors to Djokovic’s 11, shutting down the Brit’s strength, and making him bend to his own intentions. The quality of Murray’s backhand errors also speaks to the pressure Djokovic was putting him under in their baseline exchanges.

The number one backhand error by far from Murray was into the net with 13. Djokovic was often making contact standing closer to the baseline, which enabled better depth, and took time away from Murray’s preparation, hence the high number of net errors. Murray also made eight backhand errors long, three wide cross-court, and only one wide down the line. Murray did go to “Plan B” by coming forward to the net, winning 79 per cent (11/14) approaching, and two of three serving and volleying. The problem here for Murray is sheer volume, as dominating 17 points at the net does not come close to negating the 70 points Djokovic controlled from the back of the court.

Djokovic also applied pressure with his deep returns right down the middle, giving no angle for Murray to initially hurt him with. Murray won only 35 per cent (11/31) of his second serve points, as he often had to get out of the way of a deep Djokovic return hit right at him. The deep middle return is a hidden gem in Djokovic’s suffocating game plan. Leading into the Paris final, he had hit 49 per cent of his returns to the middle area of the court, 38 per cent wide in the ad court, and only 13 per cent wide in the deuce court. The middle of the court is a great way for Djokovic to begin the point, enabling him to then dictate from the middle of the court with his first shot after the return.

Djokovic’s forehand produced four winners, but more importantly only made eight groundstroke errors to Murray’s 19. A key pattern of play for Djokovic was to attack Murray’s forehand on the run in the deuce court, forcing Murray to make 15 of his 19 errors standing in the deuce, including seven running hard out wide near the deuce court alley. In the opening set, Murray hit 56 per cent of his forehands down the line, but 95 per cent (18/21) of those were down the line to Djokovic’s impenetrable backhand wing.

Djokovic hit 51 per cent of his forehands down the line in the opening set, and his seven inside-in forehands to Murray’s forehand primarily landed deep and close to the line in the deuce court. Beating an in-form Djokovic is a complex jigsaw puzzle of playing more to his forehand and getting to the net more than feels comfortable.

Simply hitting more winners clearly doesn’t work, as Murray hit 20 winners to the Serb’s 10 for the match, while Murray committed 34 unforced errors to Djokovic’s 12.

Djokovic makes everyone on the planet bend to his rules of engagement, and unless you have got several plans of attack mixed at exactly the right time, the Serb’s reign as the world’s best player is only getting stronger.
 

ClayDeath

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it is all about the long rally in the modern sport of tennis. win the long rally and you win the match.

but to do that requires superhuman fitness. you must be willing to fight to death for every single point. take the majority of the long rallies and you break their spirit.

you can start to destroy them from within by taking the majority of the long rallies. you take their spirit away.

the body falls right after that.
 

ClayDeath

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folks feel free to add to this discussion in terms of his masters series titles also.

he has 26 already. I think he can gather additional 15-18 if he plays for another 4 years.

I believe he will compete until he is about 32.
 

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I now think 12-14 majors, maybe 15.  He will hold the Masters Shield record for years to come.  Nasal and Murray are farther away from him than Roger or Stan.  They wil beat him more than the others next year--like this year!!!
 

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11392 said:
I still think 14, maybe 15. I was surprised he recovered so well after RG and won the next 2 because I thought even 14 would be a big stretch. It is mostly about next year. If he wins 3 again then he suddenly has a chance at beyond 15. But I think his play is going to go down next year, he already has a lot of wear and tear and 29 is up there for top tennis players. Since he is bound to be compared with the other legends such as Roger and Rafa it should be noted that both took an enormous step back the year they turned 29. Rafa turned 29 this year and Roger turned 29 in 2010 when he had a very bad stretch after winning AO that year. There is a difference with Nole though, he has not had the injuries that Rafa has had and Roger had 16 slams after AO 2010 so I would imagine Nole at 28/29 has more motivation than Roger did especially since he hasn’t won RG. A big factor is that nobody is currently close to him so even a drop in his level could see him win 2-3 majors next year. And though the youngsters seem worthless as of now, I think the rise of the next big player will be pretty quick similar to what we saw with Rafa and Nole. The question is will that be next year, 2 years or even 5 years from now?

I've usually erred on the side of caution when predicting this stuff... because things change quickly in sports... BUT the big elephant in the room is that there is an entire missing generation snapping at Novak's heels... I'm really struggling to think of somebody in the age group of say, 22-27 who's going to step forward and make a splash.
 

ClayDeath

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the sport has changed. rookies takes years to master the sport. you need that experience.

 

translation: there is nobody on the horizon. and if there, he will have to go through 4-5 years of experience.

 

tennis prodigies get slaughtered now.
 

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11461 said:
 I’ve usually erred on the side of caution when predicting this stuff… because things change quickly in sports… BUT the big elephant in the room is that there is an entire missing generation snapping at Novak’s heels… I’m really struggling to think of somebody in the age group of say, 22-27 who’s going to step forward and make a splash.

Maybe a bit of a whale.   :negative:  

There's no one I can think of either.  Nishikori and Raonic will probably battle injuries most of their careers.  Cilic was a fluke.  And Dimitrov?  :-(  One of the great disappointments, thus far.   The generation after them are still in training pants with no phenoms like Nadal or Djoker in the lot of them.
 

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11461 said:
Twisted wrote:
I still think 14, maybe 15. I was surprised he recovered so well after RG and won the next 2 because I thought even 14 would be a big stretch. It is mostly about next year. If he wins 3 again then he suddenly has a chance at beyond 15. But I think his play is going to go down next year, he already has a lot of wear and tear and 29 is up there for top tennis players. Since he is bound to be compared with the other legends such as Roger and Rafa it should be noted that both took an enormous step back the year they turned 29. Rafa turned 29 this year and Roger turned 29 in 2010 when he had a very bad stretch after winning AO that year. There is a difference with Nole though, he has not had the injuries that Rafa has had and Roger had 16 slams after AO 2010 so I would imagine Nole at 28/29 has more motivation than Roger did especially since he hasn’t won RG. A big factor is that nobody is currently close to him so even a drop in his level could see him win 2-3 majors next year. And though the youngsters seem worthless as of now, I think the rise of the next big player will be pretty quick similar to what we saw with Rafa and Nole. The question is will that be next year, 2 years or even 5 years from now?
I’ve usually erred on the side of caution when predicting this stuff… because things change quickly in sports… BUT the big elephant in the room is that there is an entire missing generation snapping at Novak’s heels… I’m really struggling to think of somebody in the age group of say, 22-27 who’s going to step forward and make a splash.

As you said, things can change quickly especially when we are talking individual sports.  I just read an article about Tiger Woods having to skip all of next year with another surgery and it got me thinking about just how quickly he fell off.  Leaving aside all the personal stuff it really seemed like he went from super dominant, greatest of all time golfer to being just another player and it basically happened over night.  Not saying that will happen with Djokovic but it is perhaps the most prominent reminder of how quickly the landscape can change.
 

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Good point by twisted above, but there is an even better tennis example--Mr. John McEnroe.   After dominating in 1984 like he never had in prior years (losing the French Open final after being up two sets to Lendl, then winning Wimbledon and US Open and losing 3 matches all year), who could have possibly thought that he would make it back to only one more major final (1985 US Open) and never win another????  I know it still seems impossible to comprehend and I saw it happen back then!!!!  I could not believe how McEnroe lost the ability to win more big matches and was skewered by Lendl from that point on.  Looking back, I tend to chalk it up to power increasing in the game and he was still basically a wooden racquet player who played the touch and sharply angled shots that was made much more difficult by the new technology and sheer pace of shot that arrived rather quickly.  Although I do not see anything like that now to bother Nole, the point is that you never know what can happen in sport.  Confidence can fade or alight itself onto another and all of a sudden you start losing more.  So, Nole can lose we all know--he has and can lose to Roger and Stanislas and that will likely occur next year as well.  They have shown for some time that they can hang with him.   Tsonga has pushed him and we know Nadal has and can still do so.  Guys like Dr. Ivo and Isner can blow by anybody on their day and Nole will have an off-day now and then.  We just don't know.
 

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11467 said:
Good point by twisted above, but there is an even better tennis example–Mr. John McEnroe. After dominating in 1984 like he never had in prior years (losing the French Open final after being up two sets to Lendl, then winning Wimbledon and US Open and losing 3 matches all year), who could have possibly thought that he would make it back to only one more major final (1985 US Open) and never win another???? I know it still seems impossible to comprehend and I saw it happen back then!!!! I could not believe how McEnroe lost the ability to win more big matches and was skewered by Lendl from that point on. Looking back, I tend to chalk it up to power increasing in the game and he was still basically a wooden racquet player who played the touch and sharply angled shots that was made much more difficult by the new technology and sheer pace of shot that arrived rather quickly. Although I do not see anything like that now to bother Nole, the point is that you never know what can happen in sport. Confidence can fade or alight itself onto another and all of a sudden you start losing more. So, Nole can lose we all know–he has and can lose to Roger and Stanislas and that will likely occur next year as well. They have shown for some time that they can hang with him. Tsonga has pushed him and we know Nadal has and can still do so. Guys like Dr. Ivo and Isner can blow by anybody on their day and Nole will have an off-day now and then. We just don’t know.

I think McEnroe answers this himself.  There's a difference between the two.  John coasted.  Novak has continued to add to his game, continued to improve.

“I made the mistake of sitting back and waiting to see what others had to offer, then adjust accordingly,” admitted McEnroe. “Instead of thinking to myself, 'I need to add more now' and work harder than I was working. You get that false sense of security at times that you can step up when you need to. For me personally, that was a bad move.

“One thing that I really respect about Novak is that he's trying to add that little bit more to his game. This year, he has been a bit more aggressive off his return and has been more willing to come forward. That extra five per cent is a huge difference in a big moment against a Federer or [Rafael] Nadal, or other great players."   -  John McEnroe

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/djokovic-171-weeks-no-1-emirates-atp-rankings