No coincidence

[Mastoor]

This is the third time that after playing exhausting clay court match against No1e, Nadal underperforms at Wimbledon and I don't think it is coincidence.

In 2009 they played 4 hours long match in Madrid semi after which Rafa was physically and emotionally drained so he couldn't even run in the final against Fed, then he lost to Soderling at FO and skipped Wimbledon altogether.

Last year he won FO playing the final against No1e out of his skin and he lost to Rosol in the second round of Wimbledon.

This year he again played against No1e out of his skin in FO semi, won against Ferrer like he always does no mater what and he lost to Darcis.

So there you go, this is my observation rather than hypothesis, long clay court matches against No1e make Nadal run out of juice so he underperforms at Wimbledon.

 

[Ricardo]

This is the third time that after playing exhausting clay court match against No1e, Nadal underperforms at Wimbledon and I don't think it is coincidence.

In 2009 they played 4 hours long match in Madrid semi after which Rafa was physically and emotionally drained so he couldn't even run in the final against Fed, then he lost to Soderling at FO and skipped Wimbledon altogether.

Last year he won FO playing the final against No1e out of his skin and he lost to Rosol in the second round of Wimbledon.

This year he again played against No1e out of his skin in FO semi, won against Ferrer like he always does no mater what and he lost to Darcis.

So there you go, this is my observation rather than hypothesis, long clay court matches against No1e make Nadal run out of juice so he underperforms at Wimbledon.

of course, a match with Djoker would tire out even the fittest player for months. You implying someone is on drugs?

 

[Johnsteinbeck]

nah, i think it's the ball-bounce-hypnosis that has long-term effects

 

[kskate2]

Of course it's a coincidence. Just like someone noted a few weeks ago over the last 5 years, whoever won Madrid went on to win Wimby. Well that won't be happening this year. It's all coincidence.

 

[El Dude]

Just a reminder, Mastoor, but that match against Novak was a few weeks ago. Nadal is a 27-year old man whose body should have easily recovered.

I think it has nothing to do with Novak or the French Open, except perhaps his inability to adjust to grass. I think what we're seeing with Rafa is the normal half-step loss that most elite players go through at his age; it is showing up most clearly where he is weakest: early rounds at Wimbledon.

 

[Front242]

This is the third time that after playing exhausting clay court match against No1e, Nadal underperforms at Wimbledon and I don't think it is coincidence.

In 2009 they played 4 hours long match in Madrid semi after which Rafa was physically and emotionally drained so he couldn't even run in the final against Fed, then he lost to Soderling at FO and skipped Wimbledon altogether.

Last year he won FO playing the final against No1e out of his skin and he lost to Rosol in the second round of Wimbledon.

This year he again played against No1e out of his skin in FO semi, won against Ferrer like he always does no mater what and he lost to Darcis.

So there you go, this is my observation rather than hypothesis, long clay court matches against No1e make Nadal run out of juice so he underperforms at Wimbledon.

I know you're only taking the p**s but said I'd reply anyway. Firstly Nadal mangled Hewitt right before that Soderling loss so I dunno how he could've possibly been tired. Secondly, if you watched the match against Verdasco at the AO '09 or indeed this year's final against Ferrer at RG you'd see that long semis take little out of Nadal so that has no bearing on anything. The issue is the bounce in week 1 of Wimbledon and not fatigue. He didn't play since RG so that was more than enough rest. Playing a super confident flat hitter who's serving well on the day doesn't help either, especially when you played no warm up tournament on grass.

Sorry, wouldn't call it an accurate observation.

 

[Kieran]

Last year he played a huge tough match on clay against Nole? Did he? When?

He played Nole 3 times and dropped one set - and that in a match that was played over two days. Maybe Darcis and not Nole should get the credit for the victory, si?

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Did not he play David after the Nole match and beat him in straights? Would not he be more tired there, since it was only two days apart? 2 days are enough to recover but 2 weeks are not? I am confused....

 

[Johnsteinbeck]

^ it's the emotional toll, and that takes some time to linger in. two weeks minimum, to be precise. unless of course it's a SF win at a Masters, in which two days is the appropriate time.
also, the very intro is wrong, as it starts with "third time that after playing exhausting clay court match against No1e, [/b]Nadal underperforms at Wimbledon", as Nadal has underperformed at Wimby soon after clay court matches with Novak just twice, and as Kieran pointed out, the first one doesn't fully register as "exhausting"

seeing as this came from a little amused remark in another thread, i actually think we're just getting treated to some Mastoor-humor, which i appreciate

 

[Ricardo]

While there may be no free lunch, Djoker gets free credit. When Rafa wins, credit to Rafa but when he loses, it's credit to Djoker.... all works out nicely.

 

[tented]

So there you go, this is my observation rather than hypothesis, long clay court matches against No1e make Nadal run out of juice so he underperforms at Wimbledon.

"No coincidence" means it is your hypothesis, not simply an observation. But I'll assume the whole thing was meant in fun, and leave it at that.

 

[Denis]

Novak should have won that damn semi. It would have given Nadal time to prepare for the grass season and to take out the Fedster and the Scott. Novak would have been locked for the calandar slam.

 

[Front242]

He needs to practice his overheads. They'll haunt him from that RG semi and the Beijing loss to Nadal. A little extra in that department and he wouldn't have lost his 5th set break 2 weeks ago.

 

[Mastoor]

^ it's the emotional toll, and that takes some time to linger in. two weeks minimum, to be precise. unless of course it's a SF win at a Masters, in which two days is the appropriate time.
also, the very intro is wrong, as it starts with "third time that after playing exhausting clay court match against No1e, [/b]Nadal underperforms at Wimbledon", as Nadal has underperformed at Wimby soon after clay court matches with Novak just twice, and as Kieran pointed out, the first one doesn't fully register as "exhausting"

seeing as this came from a little amused remark in another thread, i actually think we're just getting treated to some Mastoor-humor, which i appreciate

I must say that I didn't think you would be the only one to understand at least some part of this. Yes, emotional component counts in and contributes to fatigues, even though it is hard to believe that the guy in question is human because he doesn't play like one.

But Madrid semi 2009 was terribly exhausting for Kneedull too, you could see that right after he won and in the final when he had huge trouble moving. Someone suggested that the second match mentioned and that is the fo final last year wasn't tiring because it was played over two days, however that was huge emotional toll too.

But if nothing else there is a part of the story that should make you happy today, each time No1e managed to drain Rafa, the one to scavenge Wimbledon title was your guy. He was the beneficiary in 2009 and in 2012 too. I wouldn't be surprised if he scavenges it this time around again.

 

[Kieran]

Someone suggested that the second match mentioned and that is the fo final last year wasn't tiring because it was played over two days, however that was huge emotional toll too.

No, it wasn't. If anything, it would have made Rafa more confident, but it certainly wasn't a huge draining match. For the first two sets he was spanking your boy. A deluge caused a heart-flutter, he went to bed, then came out on Day 2 and dispatched Novak in 4. Not a huge drain on the batteries at all.

This year, Novak got to five (as I predicted to you he would, since nobody could expect Rafa to take 7 months off and be as great as ever, right? Still, it should have been done in four), but Rafa still had a match he won in straights two days later - and then a couple of weeks rest from that.

Give credit to Darcis - and stop bigging up Nole for things he never did...

 

[Mastoor]

Just a reminder, Mastoor, but that match against Novak was a few weeks ago. Nadal is a 27-year old man whose body should have easily recovered.

I think it has nothing to do with Novak or the French Open, except perhaps his inability to adjust to grass. I think what we're seeing with Rafa is the normal half-step loss that most elite players go through at his age; it is showing up most clearly where he is weakest: early rounds at Wimbledon.

johnsteinback mentioned that there is an emotional component to it. You get so much invested and drained in those situations and that is not just during several hours of the match. It takes some time to refill.

As for grass I will translate what one of the Serbian No1e fans posted yesterday "Nadal's problems with grass are bigger than Phelps's ones."

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But if nothing else there is a part of the story that should make you happy today, each time No1e managed to drain Rafa, the one to scavenge Wimbledon title was your guy (Federer). He was the beneficiary in 2009 and in 2012 too. I wouldn't be surprised if he scavenges it this time around again.

Mastoor, I'm shocked. You don't think Andy will knock of the other "Nike-doll" in the semis? C'mon.

Well nehmeth at least you know me. I would be happy to see anyone taking down either Nike doll, however here we talk about sequences of consequences and coincidences or is it history repeating itself.

But Murray, Tsonga or whoever else is capable of beating Fed, I like the thought of it, by all means.

 

[Kieran]

As for grass I will translate what one of the Serbian No1e fans posted yesterday "Nadal's achievements on grass are bigger than No1e's ones."

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True, true! Very wise. Now carry on...

 

[Mastoor]

Someone suggested that the second match mentioned and that is the fo final last year wasn't tiring because it was played over two days, however that was huge emotional toll too.

No, it wasn't. If anything, it would have made Rafa more confident, but it certainly wasn't a huge draining match. For the first two sets he was spanking your boy. A deluge caused a heart-flutter, he went to bed, then came out on Day 2 and dispatched Novak in 4. Not a huge drain on the batteries at all.

This year, Novak got to five (as I predicted to you he would, since nobody could expect Rafa to take 7 months off and be as great as ever, right? Still, it should have been done in four), but Rafa still had a match he won in straights two days later - and then a couple of weeks rest from that.

Give credit to Darcis - and stop bigging up Nole for things he never did...

He wouldn't shred tears of joy if he wasn't so emotional about it. Don't paint a picture of that match as BAU because no one believes it was.

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As for grass I will translate what one of the Serbian No1e fans posted yesterday "Nadal's achievements on grass are bigger than No1e's ones."

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True, true! Very wise. Now carry on...

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What are you talking about and why did you change what I posted? What I posted was a joke and you suddenly have no sense of humor whatsoever.

 

[Moxie]

Mastoor, you need to get a sense of proportion about the Djokovic effect. In 2009, that Madrid SF was just one more nail in the coffin of Rafa's knees. Someone else could blame Verdasco for the AO SF that year, or him for playing Rotterdam, at all. In 2012, I agree with Kieran: it wasn't that tough, the final against Nole at RG. The reason for the poor results at Wimbledon was probably some knee, but certainly a stunning Rosol. I don't see how Djokovic features. And this year: yes, he had to play a long SF v. Novak, but he also played a lot of matches from the start of his comeback. None of Rafa's results or non-participation in those years come down to a single, exhausting match v. Djokovic. You're trying to push the point too hard.

 

[Mastoor]

Mastoor, you need to get a sense of proportion about the Djokovic effect. In 2009, that Madrid SF was just one more nail in the coffin of Rafa's knees. Someone else could blame Verdasco for the AO SF that year, or him for playing Rotterdam, at all. In 2012, I agree with Kieran: it wasn't that tough, the final against Nole at RG. The reason for the poor results at Wimbledon was probably some knee, but certainly a stunning Rosol. I don't see how Djokovic features. And this year: yes, he had to play a long SF v. Novak, but he also played a lot of matches from the start of his comeback. None of Rafa's results or non-participation in those years come down to a single, exhausting match v. Djokovic. You're trying to push the point too hard.

Moxie, I don't think that I exaggerate and I don't think you fully remember what happened in 2009. Rafa's injury everyone mentioned throughout that year wasn't knee but pulled stomach muscle, they also at some stage started mentioning his parents divorcing that would be "emotional injury", I don't remember anyone mentioning knee as a problem in 2009 (other than his fans whose permanent mantra seems to be knee, but Rafa himself complained about stomach muscles).

While it is true that in years mentioned the guys who upset Nadal soon after he played long matches against No1e namely Fed & Sod in 2009, Rosol 2012, Darcis 2013, played great, I don't think that any of the losses mentioned was as taxing for him as those long clay matches with No1e (even though Rafa won them all).

Besides common thing in all the three years mentioned were exactly long matches with No1e, not losses to Sod, Rosol or Darcis, not even matches with Fed.

We both have reasons to hope that I am wrong about this thing and that the same thing that already happened twice is not repeating again this year. I don't want to see Fed scavenging another Wimbledon now when I hope No1e can win it and you don't want to see Rafa injured for the rest of the year like he was in 2009 and last year (not that I want it either).