Nadal's gonna be world #1 again!

[tented]

i think it's because you guys listen to his interviews too much. if you keep hearing him repeat that he's basically lucky to even be in the main draw, getting the chance to play a great threat like Nishikori, at some point, you start believing it.

Most fans by nature are pessimistic. I always believe Nadal will win, but when the match starts, 0-15 on his serve becomes a full-on crisis for me. I see it all! He's going to lose! This is terrible! It brings out my inner teenage girl obsessed with a boy who kissed her best friend instead. My hopes die and I descend into sulking misery.

0-30? I want to switch the telly off.

This is why Ralph elects to receive first: to spare us agony so early on. But even then, his opponent holding serve in the first game increases the heart-rate and causes a crisis of another sort: he chose to receive and he failed to break serve! He's been rumbled. It's over! My life is officially DIRT! uzzled

This is how I used to respond to his matches, but over the years I've learned to relax more. If anything, at this point I expect him to do poorly in the first few games, if not the entire first set.

He has turned around so many near-disasters that I don't get too worried anymore until he's down at least a set and a break (if it's a 3-set match), or about to lose the first two sets in a five-setter.

 

[Front242]

Depends on the quality of his opponent more like. He has Rosol, Gulbis, Brands on the horizon for unseeded threats and then Janowicz, Haas and probably many others in the seeded players to worry out in the early rounds.

Nadal is far better than all those players you named.

Well he wasn't last year, was he? He'll always be vulnerable to big hitters the first week of Wimbledon. He was 2-1 down to Haase and Petzschner in 2010 and Gulbis may not have beaten him but all their matches have been extremely close so it's only just a matter of time. Fast grass in week 1 of Wimbledon would be just the time for any of the aforementioned to beat him.

 

[Kieran]

A one in a million shot is now considered the norm? Come on, they're all vulnerable to a guy playing lights out in round 2...

 

[Moxie]

i think it's because you guys listen to his interviews too much. if you keep hearing him repeat that he's basically lucky to even be in the main draw, getting the chance to play a great threat like Nishikori, at some point, you start believing it.

Most fans by nature are pessimistic. I always believe Nadal will win, but when the match starts, 0-15 on his serve becomes a full-on crisis for me. I see it all! He's going to lose! This is terrible! It brings out my inner teenage girl obsessed with a boy who kissed her best friend instead. My hopes die and I descend into sulking misery.

0-30? I want to switch the telly off.

This is why Ralph elects to receive first: to spare us agony so early on. But even then, his opponent holding serve in the first game increases the heart-rate and causes a crisis of another sort: he chose to receive and he failed to break serve! He's been rumbled. It's over! My life is officially DIRT! uzzled

This is how I used to respond to his matches, but over the years I've learned to relax more. If anything, at this point I expect him to do poorly in the first few games, if not the entire first set.

He has turned around so many near-disasters that I don't get too worried anymore until he's down at least a set and a break (if it's a 3-set match), or about to lose the first two sets in a five-setter.

I'm in-between: I fret and pace, and occasionally feel sick, but I know we're going to get the drama from Nadal, before he, so often, comes good. But come on...last Friday's semi was an emotional roller-coaster, even if you weren't totally invested.

Depends on the quality of his opponent more like. He has Rosol, Gulbis, Brands on the horizon for unseeded threats and then Janowicz, Haas and probably many others in the seeded players to worry out in the early rounds.

Nadal is far better than all those players you named.

Well he wasn't last year, was he? He'll always be vulnerable to big hitters the first week of Wimbledon. He was 2-1 down to Haase and Petzschner in 2010 and Gulbis may not have beaten him but all their matches have been extremely close so it's only just a matter of time. Fast grass in week 1 of Wimbledon would be just the time for any of the aforementioned to beat him.

A one in a million shot is now considered the norm? Come on, they're all vulnerable to a guy playing lights out in round 2...

Exactly. And of the other players mentioned, none has beaten him, and Janowicz hasn't played him, I don't think. His two head-line grabbing upsets have been to players of that stripe, (and playing the matches of their lives, to that day,) and you can bring back the Tsonga AO one, if you like, but mostly he handles them, even if they trouble him. One lights-out match by Rosol doesn't make a pattern at Wimbledon.

 

[Alex]

Nadal will indeed be #1 again unless Djokovic begins to play as a dominant #1 player. We all know that Djokovic was a tiny bit lucky to end 2012 as #1; he had a very good year, slightly better than all of his competitors, but it wasn't an amazing one. At the end of last year, various journalists asked him about his 2012, and he always replied saying something like "considering I've had to deal with a number of off-court problems this year, I'm satisfied with my performance this year." That implies that he thinks he can exceed his 2012 performance in 2013; and if he wants to keep his #1 ranking, it looks like will have to.

As a Djokovic fan, I hope that he can go on a monster tear from Wimbledon until the end of the season. No one is asking him to repeat 2011, but he needs to win one slam and a hard court masters and play consistently well at the masters tournaments if he's serious about keeping his #1. Beyond that, he needs to decide if his legacy is going to be that he won the Australian Open every year or something more than that. The near misses in last year's USO (amazing comeback to level the score just to disappear in the fifth set) and this year's FO (break up in the fifth, ran into the net) were brutal. He needs to begin to play as a dominant player; no excuses, just win.

Kieran mentioned earlier in the thread that most fans are by nature pessimistic. I would say that also most fans by nature make excuses for their favorite players even when the players themselves are not necessarily making excuses. Throughout this year and some of last year, I've read so much about how Novak must be distracted by this and that, that he has a hard time keeping his focus... honestly, I'm tired of it. His results are what they are, and as of right now, at age 26, he's at a crucial moment. Will he play as a truly great and dominant player or not? We'll see.

 

[Moxie]

Nadal will indeed be #1 again unless Djokovic begins to play as a dominant #1 player. We all know that Djokovic was a tiny bit lucky to end 2012 as #1; he had a very good year, slightly better than all of his competitors, but it wasn't an amazing one. At the end of last year, various journalists asked him about his 2012, and he always replied saying something like "considering I've had to deal with a number of off-court problems this year, I'm satisfied with my performance this year." That implies that he thinks he can exceed his 2012 performance in 2013; and if he wants to keep his #1 ranking, it looks like will have to.

As a Djokovic fan, I hope that he can go on a monster tear from Wimbledon until the end of the season. No one is asking him to repeat 2011, but he needs to win one slam and a hard court masters and play consistently well at the masters tournaments if he's serious about keeping his #1. Beyond that, he needs to decide if his legacy is going to be that he won the Australian Open every year or something more than that. The near misses in last year's USO (amazing comeback to level the score just to disappear in the fifth set) and this year's FO (break up in the fifth, ran into the net) were brutal. He needs to begin to play as a dominant player; no excuses, just win.

Kieran mentioned earlier in the thread that most fans are by nature pessimistic. I would say that also most fans by nature make excuses for their favorite players even when the players themselves are not necessarily making excuses. Throughout this year and some of last year, I've read so much about how Novak must be distracted by this and that, that he has a hard time keeping his focus... honestly, I'm tired of it. His results are what they are, and as of right now, at age 26, he's at a crucial moment. Will he play as a truly great and dominant player or not? We'll see.

Really interesting and sanguine post. Thanks, Alex. I agree that Djokovic, having come up in the Federer/Nadal era, has a narrower window to dominate, and create a legacy. But he HAS come into his own. It'll be interesting to see what he does with it, in the next few years.

 

[Alex]

Thank you Moxie. I think Djokovic has a great chance in this second half of 2013 to prove that his level is indeed higher than that of 2012, and that he can win non-AO slams outside of 2011. Frankly, I think many of his fans trot out the distraction, difficulty concentrating, etc. lines because they/we don't want to believe that 2011 was more of an aberration than a sign of a new normal for him. I was talking with your good buddy Mastoor a few weeks go, and he had a funny line about how some of Novak's fans speak of him as if he is out in the mines everyday, working some oppressive job. I hope he proves his fans right -- in terms of his "real" level being more 2011 than 2012/first half of 2013 -- now that the pressure is on for him to defend his #1.

 

[Moxie]

Thank you Moxie. I think Djokovic has a great chance in this second half of 2013 to prove that his level is indeed higher than that of 2012, and that he can win non-AO slams outside of 2011. Frankly, I think many of his fans trot out the distraction, difficulty concentrating, etc. lines because they/we don't want to believe that 2011 was more of an aberration than a sign of a new normal for him. I was talking with your good buddy Mastoor a few weeks go, and he had a funny line about how some of Novak's fans speak of him as if he is out in the mines everyday, working some oppressive job. I hope he proves his fans right -- in terms of his "real" level being more 2011 than 2012/first half of 2013 -- now that the pressure is on for him to defend his #1.

I like your point that excuse-making is boring amongst fans, especially when players don't make them. And no, to Mastoor's point, they are not working in the salt-mines. Interesting point about Novak's "real" level. I think he has proved that he made the leap, and he's not going back. But 2011-level is not sustainable, IMO. However, to keep consistent just below that is a really high-level, too, and he's done a pretty good job of that. It may be a battle the rest of the year with Nadal, since Rafa has nothing to defend, and Djokovic has rather a lot. I think the real rivalry for now IS Djokovic/Nadal.

 

[Alex]

I didn't phrase that well -- I agree that he is not going back to and has not gone back to '07-'10 levels, of course. I meant more along the lines of: is he "actually" closer to '11 or closer to '12/(so far) '13? Is he someone who will win 2, maybe even 3, slams per year, someone you can really attach the word "dominant" to, or is he someone who will win the Australian Open, do well at the masters tournaments, and finish at #1 with some luck or at #2? As a fan of his, I believe that the answer is the former -- but now he has to prove it to us.

 

[El Dude]

It will be interesting to see how Rafa and Novak face-off on grass or hard courts. Wimbledon could be epic - let's hope they're on opposite sides otherwise we'll have another "Final before the Final."

My sense is that the two are neck and neck for best player in the game and what we're seeing is the resumption of the rivalry we saw between the two of them in 2011 and the first half of 2012, before Rafa went out. As we all remember, Novak dominated and then Rafa caught up. So far this year they're 1-1, but Rafa has the Slam, although both have been on clay.

My guess right now is that Rafa wins Wimbledon and Novak the US Open. I hope Roger can defend Wimbledon but I don't see it.

In terms of who will be #1, it probably has less to do with Novak and Rafa and more to do with Andy and Roger - how strongly they can complete against Novak in the hard court season. Rafa is unlikely to win a lot of big hard court tournaments, while Novak would be the favorite at most. If Andy and Roger can notch it up they might win the crown for Rafa.

 

[Moxie]

I didn't phrase that well -- I agree that he is not going back to and has not gone back to '07-'10 levels, of course. I meant more along the lines of: is he "actually" closer to '11 or closer to '12/(so far) '13? Is he someone who will win 2, maybe even 3, slams per year, someone you can really attach the word "dominant" to, or is he someone who will win the Australian Open, do well at the masters tournaments, and finish at #1 with some luck or at #2? As a fan of his, I believe that the answer is the former -- but now he has to prove it to us.

I think you were clear. Maybe I wasn't. I think we all agree that Djokovic made a leap in 2011, and he won't go back to his pre-2011 level. It IS a question of how dominant he can make this current run. I would say he still has Nadal to contend with, most substantially. Winning 2-3 Majors a year is a tough ask. What he and Nadal both can produce in the next few years I believe is the question on everyone's mind. And there is no answer, right now.

 

[Johnsteinbeck]

And no, I won't co-sign to this wish list of yours, because I know that Djokovic will redeem himself between Wimby-USO to keep his pole post safe.

Nadal will indeed be #1 again unless Djokovic begins to play as a dominant #1 player.
As a Djokovic fan, I hope that he can go on a monster tear from Wimbledon until the end of the season. No one is asking him to repeat 2011, but he needs to win one slam and a hard court masters and play consistently well at the masters tournaments if he's serious about keeping his #1.

i'm sorry, but it's really not up to Djokovic, it's Rafa's body that will decide. there's only so many points Nole can add. in the race, Rafa is ahead 2000 pts by now (not even having played AO). Nole's defending a F at the USO, a W at the AO, a W at WTF, two Ws and an F at M1000s (more than just the one slam and one HC masters win Alex mentions) - all events that Rafa didn't even enter; so if he even gets just a couple of rounds at each, he'll still catch up. plus, as been said, everyone else gets docked the Olympic points.

i can't do the math right now, but i'm pretty sure that even if we took Rafa's worst "SW19 through AO" results of the past 5 years before last year's injury, they would probably still have gotten him enough points to pass all but the most extremely dominant (='11) Novak performances.

that said, it's not as if Novak can't make a great run (which he'd have to start by winning wimby). it's just that he'll still need Nadal to underperform significantly. we might not be paying as much attention because it's been almost all clay and not since the start of the year, but Nadal has put on one of the most succesful runs i've ever seen. he hasn't missed a final since he's back, for pete's sake! i'm not saying that this means he'll keep it up, just saying that if he remains only remotely competitive, this spring will give him such an incredible ranking boost that it's hard to imagine him not being #1 after the AO.

 

[El Dude]

johnsteinbeck, remember that in their two meetings this year- both on clay - Novak won one match and in the other they were essentially equal. To put it another way, if Rafa still has an edge on clay over Novak its a small one. On grass and hard courts? I think you've got to favor Novak, especially on hard (they might be equals on grass).

What this means, as I said, is that Murray and Federer could be the spoilers for the #1 ranking. If they can rise to the challenge and take a few hard court tournies from Novak AND Rafa continue to play well, Rafa could win the #1. But if Andy and Roger don't return to form, the Slams and ATP 1000s will be divided up between Novak and Rafa and unfavorably so to the Spaniard.

It could come down to the Finals again, though.

 

[Johnsteinbeck]

^ i don't doubt the HC edge Nole has over Rafa, but this is not a match-up thing. it's about going deep in the upcoming tourneys, and the lead that Rafa already has. if they even come close to dividing up the remaining slams and 1000s, no matter how unfavorable to Rafa, he still will be gaining so much ground on Novak. think about, just the UO and AO - if Nole wins both, and Rafa makes just the semis each time, Rafa would gain 640 points on Novak.

that's why i'm saying it doesn't come down to the matchup, and not so much down to how Novak performs, but mostly it's up to how Rafa does.

and just to be clear, since you mention the finals - are you thinking ye#1? if so, then i'm not claiming that. i think Kieran's list was "will Rafa return to #1 at some point", which is Very likely to me, and i think, as i said, it's due after the AO.

 

[herios]

And no, I won't co-sign to this wish list of yours, because I know that Djokovic will redeem himself between Wimby-USO to keep his pole post safe.

Nadal will indeed be #1 again unless Djokovic begins to play as a dominant #1 player.
As a Djokovic fan, I hope that he can go on a monster tear from Wimbledon until the end of the season. No one is asking him to repeat 2011, but he needs to win one slam and a hard court masters and play consistently well at the masters tournaments if he's serious about keeping his #1.

i'm sorry, but it's really not up to Djokovic, it's Rafa's body that will decide. there's only so many points Nole can add. in the race, Rafa is ahead 2000 pts by now (not even having played AO).

If Nole plays really well in the next 2 slams as he can, he will retip the balance in his favor. And post USo Rafa usually is underperforming, especially at the last 2 masters and WTF. He never won any of those 3 events.
That is why I think it is up to Djokovic how he does in the first place. Not come up short at the lasst 2 slams, that is the key for him.

 

[Kieran]

johnsteinbeck, remember that in their two meetings this year- both on clay - Novak won one match and in the other they were essentially equal.

Not what the umpire said! And the FO didn't send them both into the finals. In the last five clay court matches, Novak won the one in MC - and lost all four of the others. They're not close or equal on clay - Nadal is plainly dominant, and he's shaken a huge elephant off his back, regarding Novak.

Johnsteinbeck is right: Novak is defending points and Rafa is gaining: he has 45 points to defend between now and next February. He still may not get to #1 again, but is it possible, or likely? The only way he isn't if he goes lame again. I don't see any other way...

 

[Alex]

IF Djokovic defends all his points, Nadal needs to earn more than 5000 points to pass him by the end of the year. I don't really think it's inevitable that Nadal will earn that many points on non-clay. Remember that for him, injuries always seem to be a factor; I don't see him showing up to every single hard court tournament. On the other hand, it's also not inevitable that Djokovic will defend or exceed his points from 2012. That's why I kept emphasizing that he needs to play at a consistently high level from now until the end of the season to be #1 at the end of the year. I wasn't being precise with my comment about how he needed a slam and a masters and whatever else; I really just meant he has to play very well and with more consistency than the first half of 2013.

Things get trickier around February of next year; we'll see if Djokovic can defend the AO yet again and how far Nadal goes there. But this is getting a little too far in the future to make such bold predictions, I think.

 

[SF Nadalite]

I'm afraid that the importance of the Novak vs Nadal match-up is overshadowing the discussion. The SF was incredible, absolutely epic - and their head-to-head on hard courts clearly favors Nole...

But Nole has lost earlier round matches this year on hard courts (IW, Miami) as well as clay, so this is where his numbers will be determined. Rafa has always had his ups and downs on the summer/fall hard courts - most of us doubt he will be playing all that many tournaments this summer - so if Nole hits his stride like 2011, then it will be a different story.

 

[huntingyou]

Very nice interview:

http://www.vamosbrigade.com/articles2013/lequipejun13.html

Something that jumped at me:

Technically underestimated?

During the last days of Roland Garros, it’s as if the entire Nadal clan wanted to give us a message. In short: “stop treating Rafael like a horse by only talking about his physique and his mentality. Have you seen what a fine touch he has with his hands?”. “No, I’m not the one who urged them to send you this message”, said an amused Rafael yesterday. “but it’s true that people are often mistaken about me. Mental power? Sure. Physical power? A bit less than a year ago, but yes. However, you can not win 12 grand slam titles and 24 Master 1000 because you can focus and run a lot (laughs). Of course, there’s technique. If you touch the ball well, you play long, close to the lines,…that’s what makes you win. That’s technical.”
On this topic, Francis Roig, his alternate coach is formal: “Since his return, he’s a better player. His forehand is more precise, he plays faster with his backhand and with that shot, it’s easier for him to open up the court.”

jajaja, Rafa it's reading cali's posts :laydownlaughing

 

[Moxie]

^ I have to say that jumped out to me, as well. Apparently Cali is not the only one who's been trying to sell-off Nadal as a tough head, and a muscle-bound running machine, and they seem a bit sensitive about that. Fair enough...12 Slams and 24 MS. Really?!

Good article and thanks for sharing.