Well, let me offer a probably less biased perspective (or perhaps less invested is more what I'm going for) - as a fan of tennis, great appreciator of Rafa, but ultimately a Federian...I think he has a chance. Not a huge one, and not the favorite (there is no favorite, unless Alcaraz is 100% and Novak finds his B game in Geneva) - but I'm never counting him out at Roland Garros. And I'm rooting for him - as a tennis fan first and foremost, I love the storybook ending of him winning RG one more time.
He's healthy, for one. He looks a tad slower - which is borderline disastrous - and his strokes seem to have a bit less zip. But he could be ramping up...I mean, even if it is unlikely, it is possible. He doesn't need to be vintage, or even his 2022 self. Rafa's B game at Roland Garros is still better than probably anyone other than Novak's A game.
I might put his odds at something like 1 in 20 right now, and no other player as more than maybe 1 in 10. But that goes up steeply with each win. If he reaches the QF, I think he's the favorite (unless he's just squeaking by and one of Alcaraz or Novak are playing well).
But I get it. After Roger lost Wimbledon in 2019, I knew it was over. I took a break from tennis for a couple months because I was so bummed out - not as much that it was over, but that he lost his last real chance (and kinda blew it...but in all fairness, Novak is the best ever at making other players blow it). But while I think Rafa might be in a similar place as Roger in 2020-21, he has two things going for him: One, it is Roland Garros and he rules there. Two, it is an open field, with Novak not himself, Alcaraz at least somewhat hurt.