who will retire first? what is your own sense of this?
you have the floor. have at it and and have fun.
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1121321-nadal-vs-federer-who-will-retire-first-and-who-will-have-the-longer-career
Nadal vs Federer : Who Will Be the First To Retire
- Thread starter ClayDeath
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who will retire first? what is your own sense of this?
you have the floor. have at it and and have fun.
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1121321-nadal-vs-federer-who-will-retire-first-and-who-will-have-the-longer-career
I will go ahead and fire the first shot:
I think nadal will retire first not because he wants to but because of injuries.
roger had an off year because of his recurring back issues but these issues can go away. he will find a way to get past it.
too many people are eager to write him off. he has said countless times that he wants to stick around because he truly loves the sport.
I can see him playing until about 40 or so. unusual athletes have done that in the past so why cant he do it.
nadal has tons of outside interests but he wants to compete as much as possible from the looks of it all.
his obsession with the hard courts will eventually do him in. I can see him disappearing from the sport in about 3-4 years.
I think nadal will retire first not because he wants to but because of injuries.
roger had an off year because of his recurring back issues but these issues can go away. he will find a way to get past it.
too many people are eager to write him off. he has said countless times that he wants to stick around because he truly loves the sport.
I can see him playing until about 40 or so. unusual athletes have done that in the past so why cant he do it.
nadal has tons of outside interests but he wants to compete as much as possible from the looks of it all.
his obsession with the hard courts will eventually do him in. I can see him disappearing from the sport in about 3-4 years.
Fed. He wont like being a quarter finalist and being the "surprise winner" of anything. I give rafa till 31.
agreed. clay warrior will be gone at 31.
roger plays until he is 41. his game is too damned efficient. he plays so easily.
also he can always compete in doubles if he feels like it.
roger plays until he is 41. his game is too damned efficient. he plays so easily.
also he can always compete in doubles if he feels like it.
britbox
Multiple Major Winner
A lot will depend on how their bodies hold up, but all things being equal - I think it will largely depend on how Roger is mentally able to deal with the downward curve on his career trajectory.
he should be at peace now. most of his records will never be touched.
he has seen it all and done it all.
all else is just extra now. its all bonus.
he has seen it all and done it all.
all else is just extra now. its all bonus.
brokenshoelace
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Kieran
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Broken_Shoelace said:
Yeah, I think so. Even though, comparatively speaking, Rafa has much more miles on the clock by the age of 27, ironically the only benefit of his 7 month absence might be to recharge his batteries a bit. I think Federer might be gone within 2 or 3 years. I'm not sure he'll hang around long if he slips beyond the top 15 or 20, but you never know.
But I think Rafa will still be playing in his early 30's, depending on whether it's wise for his knees. He doesn't want to do any longterm harm and this is the only reason why I'd see him stopping early...
DarthFed
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Federer will. He isn't sticking around for long if he keeps playing this bad let alone if he gets worse. When he talked about playing until 35-36 I'm sure in his mind he figured he'd still be in the top 5 or just out of it. He will not be sticking around to just play doubles either, that'd be even more ridiculous than seeing him as #20 in the world.
tented
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Unless Rafa has a career-ending injury in the next year or two (I can feel you smiling from here, Darth! 
), Roger will retire first.
), Roger will retire first.
DarthFed
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tented said:Unless Rafa has a career-ending injury in the next year or two (I can feel you smiling from here, Darth!
I don't like to see anyone hurt, not even Rafa. If he's gone in a couple years I will hope it's due to him becoming irrelevant. I don't think his ego is that far from Fed's, he would not stick around if he's not a threat. That said, I think Rafa has a lot more than 2 years left. The man will be a serious threat at RG until he's 35, he doesn't even have to move decent to win there.
clay warrior retires first.
and he has a near insatiable infatuation with hard courts. that spells trouble to me.
and he has a near insatiable infatuation with hard courts. that spells trouble to me.
Didi
Pro Tour Champion
I think Nadal is starting one final assault on the #1 spot. He looks like to be on a final mission and his return and comeback actually reminds me a lot of Federer's year 2012 which in hindsight might turn out to be his very last rise to the top. I don't see Nadal being a top 5 player in his 30s at all but then again he doesn't have to in my opinion. If you are #2 in the world as a teenager you cannot be expected to remain elite till your 30s. Take Becker, Chang, Safin and Hewitt for examples. Mileage is much more telling than age alone. 17 slam finals and 36 masters finals with fragile knees by the age of 27 is simply unreal. I would guess that Nadal's "real tennis age" is already somewhere between 30-32. Agassi and Connors are anomalies, not the norm. And Agassi was not always elite, far from it, dropping out of the top 10 on many different occasions even long before his famous downfall in 1997.
As for Federer I have no idea. Rio 2016 and the following US Open and Basel tournaments sound like a romantic farewell. If he stays motivated he might even pull a Connors. On the other hand he might as well call it a career in 2014-2015. Impossible to say. For now I would say let us wait and see what 2014 brings when (hopefully) his back recovers and the raquet change starts to click. That said Roger and Rafa both retiring at the end of 2016 would be kind of iconic.
As for Federer I have no idea. Rio 2016 and the following US Open and Basel tournaments sound like a romantic farewell. If he stays motivated he might even pull a Connors. On the other hand he might as well call it a career in 2014-2015. Impossible to say. For now I would say let us wait and see what 2014 brings when (hopefully) his back recovers and the raquet change starts to click. That said Roger and Rafa both retiring at the end of 2016 would be kind of iconic.
Lot depends on how Roger's performance during the remaining of the year and the year 2014 goes along with how his new racquet trial works. If he does not bounce back successfully during 2014 he will not continue any further.
Didi said:I think Nadal is starting one final assault on the #1 spot. He looks like to be on a final mission and his return and comeback actually reminds me a lot of Federer's year 2012 which in hindsight might turn out to be his very last rise to the top. I don't see Nadal being a top 5 player in his 30s at all but then again he doesn't have to in my opinion. If you are #2 in the world as a teenager you cannot be expected to remain elite till your 30s. Take Becker, Chang, Safin and Hewitt for examples. Mileage is much more telling than age alone. 17 slam finals and 36 masters finals with fragile knees by the age of 27 is simply unreal. I would guess that Nadal's "real tennis age" is already somewhere between 30-32. Agassi and Connors are anomalies, not the norm. And Agassi was not always elite, far from it, dropping out of the top 10 on many different occasions even long before his famous downfall in 1997.
As for Federer I have no idea. Rio 2016 and the following US Open and Basel tournaments sound like a romantic farewell. If he stays motivated he might even pull a Connors. On the other hand he might as well call it a career in 2014-2015. Impossible to say. For now I would say let us wait and see what 2014 brings when (hopefully) his back recovers and the raquet change starts to click. That said Roger and Rafa both retiring at the end of 2016 would be kind of iconic.
excellent post.
I doubt if anyone knows for sure yet, not even the players...
I observed that Rafael Nadal seemed to have lost his passion for the game for awhile, and required significant time off from July 2012 - Feb 2013 to get into the "proper condition" and recharge his batteries. He appeared to very much enjoy golf, fishing/boating/jet skiing, and poker during his absence. He returned this year very refreshed. Now he is in the middle of a superb season. How long will that last? He seems to have adjusted his style on the hard court to be more aggressive and play shorter rallies. But IF his knees get worse again, how long will he endure? Will he go back to boating, poker and golf?
Roger Federer is no spring chicken in tennis terms. He is 32. But he plays the game with probably one of the most efficient styles in history and one might think that physically speaking, he could play a long time. But his long history of enduring back spasms might eventually be too much for him to withstand. Back problems have contributed to many great players retirements, including his hero Sampras, and a fighter and a strong and trained physical specimen like Ivan Lendl. It takes a lot out of Roger when the back problems surface. Even at age 21 after suffering back spasms at the Wimbledon 2003 4th round vs. Feli Lopez, he said it exhausted him and he wasn't sure if he could continue in the tournament. At age 32, one would think it's even more difficult to recover. Still, if he can somehow manage the back problems he might go on for a long time, maybe to 40, who knows? Obviously, his family situation is also a factor.
Federer just gave an interview in Cincinnati where someone mentioned retirement. I'll post the question and answer here:
Question: Not sure about media around the rest of the world but we’ve tried to retire you for three years. At age 32, what is the hardest part of this job as you’ve gotten older and what is the biggest motivator to stay in it?
RF: Well, the motivation is the passion, clearly. Because I think if the passion doesn’t overweigh all the rest, the end is extremely near. As nice as the travel is and playing matches and practicing and all these things, I think if the passion is not there, it just becomes so much harder and then you might be doing it for the wrong reasons. For me, there’s no question about that – that my passion is sky-high and that’s why I’m still doing it. I love what I’m doing and I feel very fortunate that I do have this opportunity day-in, day-out to do it.
But clearly I’ve played a lot of matches. I’ve played for a very long time. I feel like I just have to do more in terms of getting ready today than I ever have. When I was younger, a teenager for instance, I would jump up and down for two minutes and then go, ‘OK, here we go.’ For a five-set match today, it would take a half an hour. It’s no problem but that can also really sort of wear you out eventually to do all these little things next to it, just to be actually somewhat ready. It’s like a car. You sort of need to warm it up. And for me, that’s a bit of a change but it sort of happens gradually, to be honest.
I haven’t quite felt this huge effect of the new generation coming through yet but I have felt that the game has changed, so you can see that two ways. Is that fun that it changed or is it actually somewhat of a letdown that it has changed so much that it’s all baseline game now? So I just have to adjust to those new conditions over the years now because when I was coming up things were quite different still. But I see it more also as a positive, an opportunity for me to improve again as a player and adapt. That’s what you have got to keep on doing – you have to keep on improving and enjoy what you’re doing and then I think you’re on the right track really.
Feel free to draw your own conclusions...if you feel lucky you can probably bet on it somewhere
Respectfully,
masterclass
I observed that Rafael Nadal seemed to have lost his passion for the game for awhile, and required significant time off from July 2012 - Feb 2013 to get into the "proper condition" and recharge his batteries. He appeared to very much enjoy golf, fishing/boating/jet skiing, and poker during his absence. He returned this year very refreshed. Now he is in the middle of a superb season. How long will that last? He seems to have adjusted his style on the hard court to be more aggressive and play shorter rallies. But IF his knees get worse again, how long will he endure? Will he go back to boating, poker and golf?
Roger Federer is no spring chicken in tennis terms. He is 32. But he plays the game with probably one of the most efficient styles in history and one might think that physically speaking, he could play a long time. But his long history of enduring back spasms might eventually be too much for him to withstand. Back problems have contributed to many great players retirements, including his hero Sampras, and a fighter and a strong and trained physical specimen like Ivan Lendl. It takes a lot out of Roger when the back problems surface. Even at age 21 after suffering back spasms at the Wimbledon 2003 4th round vs. Feli Lopez, he said it exhausted him and he wasn't sure if he could continue in the tournament. At age 32, one would think it's even more difficult to recover. Still, if he can somehow manage the back problems he might go on for a long time, maybe to 40, who knows? Obviously, his family situation is also a factor.
Federer just gave an interview in Cincinnati where someone mentioned retirement. I'll post the question and answer here:
Question: Not sure about media around the rest of the world but we’ve tried to retire you for three years. At age 32, what is the hardest part of this job as you’ve gotten older and what is the biggest motivator to stay in it?
RF: Well, the motivation is the passion, clearly. Because I think if the passion doesn’t overweigh all the rest, the end is extremely near. As nice as the travel is and playing matches and practicing and all these things, I think if the passion is not there, it just becomes so much harder and then you might be doing it for the wrong reasons. For me, there’s no question about that – that my passion is sky-high and that’s why I’m still doing it. I love what I’m doing and I feel very fortunate that I do have this opportunity day-in, day-out to do it.
But clearly I’ve played a lot of matches. I’ve played for a very long time. I feel like I just have to do more in terms of getting ready today than I ever have. When I was younger, a teenager for instance, I would jump up and down for two minutes and then go, ‘OK, here we go.’ For a five-set match today, it would take a half an hour. It’s no problem but that can also really sort of wear you out eventually to do all these little things next to it, just to be actually somewhat ready. It’s like a car. You sort of need to warm it up. And for me, that’s a bit of a change but it sort of happens gradually, to be honest.
I haven’t quite felt this huge effect of the new generation coming through yet but I have felt that the game has changed, so you can see that two ways. Is that fun that it changed or is it actually somewhat of a letdown that it has changed so much that it’s all baseline game now? So I just have to adjust to those new conditions over the years now because when I was coming up things were quite different still. But I see it more also as a positive, an opportunity for me to improve again as a player and adapt. That’s what you have got to keep on doing – you have to keep on improving and enjoy what you’re doing and then I think you’re on the right track really.
Feel free to draw your own conclusions...if you feel lucky you can probably bet on it somewhere
Respectfully,
masterclass
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I can only echo what Didi wrote. Rafa is 27, which is the age many players take a step back. But his "real" age is more like 3+ years older due to wear and tear. I like the idea of one last rise to dominance, perhaps this year and through the clay season next year, and then falling in the second half of next year and struggling along for another year or two and retiring at age 31-32. I could see him missing Roland Garros due to injury one year and calling it quits shortly thereafter.
As for Roger, I also agree that we need to see how he does in 2014. If he can adjust to either being a #6-10 player or return to #4-5, then I can see him sticking around until the 2016 Olympics, even beyond if he finds a groove. But as much as he loves the game I don't see him sticking around if and when he slips out of the top 15 or so, and when he starts losing frequently in the first week of Slams. But he's such a champion that I really wouldn't be suprised to see him stabilize as a top 10 player for another 3-5 years, with maybe even one more Slam win in him. I've always thought that 18 seemed like the number he'd retire with; 2014 seems like the year he'd have to do it.
As for Roger, I also agree that we need to see how he does in 2014. If he can adjust to either being a #6-10 player or return to #4-5, then I can see him sticking around until the 2016 Olympics, even beyond if he finds a groove. But as much as he loves the game I don't see him sticking around if and when he slips out of the top 15 or so, and when he starts losing frequently in the first week of Slams. But he's such a champion that I really wouldn't be suprised to see him stabilize as a top 10 player for another 3-5 years, with maybe even one more Slam win in him. I've always thought that 18 seemed like the number he'd retire with; 2014 seems like the year he'd have to do it.